Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing.
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
Financial advisors will be working with millennials and Gen Z, either as new clients or as family members of existing ones.
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
US stocks opened higher Friday as traders weighed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that an 80% tariff on China seemed right, just as negotiations between the two countries are set to begin on Saturday.
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
In the week ending May 3rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 228,000. This represents a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 231,000.
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
Even though Warren Buffett is 94 and decades past the average retirement age, the end of his run as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was always going to come as a shock.
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Most advisor websites are invisible because they’re built on a flawed assumption — that people will reach out just because you exist. That’s not how it works anymore.
It was a glimpse of a very appealing future: A sleek 18-wheeler powered by Aurora Innovation Inc. trundled down Interstate 45 from Dallas to Houston last week with a trailer full of goods and a completely empty cab. At long last, autonomous trucking may have arrived.
Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.
April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Gas prices were essentially flat this week, remaining near their lowest levels in six weeks. As of May 5th, the price of regular was up 1 cent while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high as imports rose more than exports. In March, the trade deficit rose 14.0% to -$140.5B, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
A key valuation metric touted by legendary investor Warren Buffett is signaling that equities are relatively cheap, bolstering the case that the sizzling rebound in US stocks has room to run.
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Noise about tariffs, business uncertainty, a constitutional fight, and a drop in stock prices had already created fear of a recession. When real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2025, some started to question if a recession is already here. Let’s take a deep breath and consider the facts.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
With the Q1 GDP advance estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
While tariff negotiations may well bear fruit eventually, investors today are trying to figure out the impact of changing trade pacts on GDP growth, interest rate levels, the value of the dollar, and the ability of the Treasury to refinance $9.2 trillion of our $36 trillion federal debt in 2025.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $21,618 for an annualized real return of 15.52%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 25th, the index was at 6.038, down 1.531 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Last week's economic data arrived against the backdrop of a buoyant stock market enjoying a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004.a
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
At the end of April, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered approximately $360 billion of new money.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
US job growth was robust in April and the unemployment rate held steady, suggesting uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to have a material impact on hiring plans.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 35.2% from that peak.
The latest employment report showed that 177,000 jobs were added in April, down from 185,000 in March but higher than the expected 138,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a so-called "soft" report, not reflecting "hard" data like GDP or CPI. It moved markets recently, so how much attention should investors pay?
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.74, down from 1.85 in March. This is the lowest level in fifteen months.
Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 36.0 is 137% above its arithmetic mean, 159% above its geometric mean, and is in the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.
At the end of April, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 145% above its long-term trend, down from 160% in March. This is the lowest variance in twelve months.
The US Federal Reserve is undertaking a major rethink of how it manages the world’s largest economy.
The US economy’s contraction last quarter was something of a head fake, driven by a surge in imports as businesses tried to front-run tariffs.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Even in normal times, managing an investment program is a challenging job. But when you add on tariffs and trade wars, it's bound to lead to some sleepless nights. Learn how an OCIO firm can provide relief.
With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Market Indicators
World Markets Watchlist: May 12, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
The Storm Before the Calm
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
The Federal Reserve Reserves the Right to Change Its Mind
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Employment Data Confirms Economy is Slowing
While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing.
Barometer: Equities Set for Further Falls as Tariffs Bite
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
Fed Chair Powell Tells the Truth: "We Don't Know!"
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hedge
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Fed Holds Steady Amid Services Growth & Record Trade Gap
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
The Advisor’s Guide to Communicating With Gen Z & Millennial Clients
Financial advisors will be working with millennials and Gen Z, either as new clients or as family members of existing ones.
Increased Risks to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 9, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
US Stocks Rise at Open as Investors Look Ahead to China Talks
US stocks opened higher Friday as traders weighed comments from President Donald Trump suggesting that an 80% tariff on China seemed right, just as negotiations between the two countries are set to begin on Saturday.
Wall Street Brings the Bitcoin-Versus-Gold Clash to ETF Masses
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
The Home Stretch: Seven Essential Steps For Pre-retirees
Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.
The Fed Is in a ‘Good Place’: But for How Long?
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Warns of Rising Risks
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
Awaiting Further Clarity
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Risk, Reward, and Rory at the Masters
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Fed Watch: Still Waiting
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
The 2-Faced Economy: Strong Data Amid Shaky Sentiment
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: April 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: April 2025
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Tariffs Will Be Bad, But They Won’t Cause a Recession
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: April 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Tactical Rules Move to Neutral
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Unemployment Claims Down 13K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending May 3rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 228,000. This represents a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 231,000.
Tariff Risks Reshape Manager Positioning
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
How Buffett Became the Accidental Model for Smart Succession
Even though Warren Buffett is 94 and decades past the average retirement age, the end of his run as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was always going to come as a shock.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: May 7, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: April 2025
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Fatal Flaw in Treating Your Website Like a Digital Brochure
Most advisor websites are invisible because they’re built on a flawed assumption — that people will reach out just because you exist. That’s not how it works anymore.
Welcome the Driverless Trucks
It was a glimpse of a very appealing future: A sleek 18-wheeler powered by Aurora Innovation Inc. trundled down Interstate 45 from Dallas to Houston last week with a trailer full of goods and a completely empty cab. At long last, autonomous trucking may have arrived.
Markets Betting on Tariff Relief But Impact Still Lurks
Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.
International Investing: A New Paradigm?
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
A Tariff-Centric World Takes Shape
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.4% of Workers in April 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: April 2025
April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Gas Prices Essentially Flat from Last Week
Gas prices were essentially flat this week, remaining near their lowest levels in six weeks. As of May 5th, the price of regular was up 1 cent while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
America's Driving Habits: March 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
Trade Deficit Widens to Record High in March
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high as imports rose more than exports. In March, the trade deficit rose 14.0% to -$140.5B, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: April 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Big Tech Breathes Life into Q1 Earnings
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
Warren Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Indicator Flashes Buy Signal
A key valuation metric touted by legendary investor Warren Buffett is signaling that equities are relatively cheap, bolstering the case that the sizzling rebound in US stocks has room to run.
U.S. Ports Face Massive Slowdowns as Trump Tariffs Bite Hard
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
Looking Beyond President Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
No Recession Yet, But Risks Remain
Noise about tariffs, business uncertainty, a constitutional fight, and a drop in stock prices had already created fear of a recession. When real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2025, some started to question if a recession is already here. Let’s take a deep breath and consider the facts.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of April 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: April 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: April 2025
With the Q1 GDP advance estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Fixed Income and Tariff Policy: Advising Clients in an Era of Uncertainty
While tariff negotiations may well bear fruit eventually, investors today are trying to figure out the impact of changing trade pacts on GDP growth, interest rate levels, the value of the dollar, and the ability of the Treasury to refinance $9.2 trillion of our $36 trillion federal debt in 2025.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: April 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $21,618 for an annualized real return of 15.52%.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Tenth Straight Month in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth in 17 Months
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 25th, the index was at 6.038, down 1.531 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Solid Jobs Amid GDP Contraction & Crashing Confidence
Last week's economic data arrived against the backdrop of a buoyant stock market enjoying a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004.a
Firms Front-Load Increase in Tariffs During Q1 2025
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
Top Lessons from Professor Siegel This April
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Soft Data Gets Softer
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: April Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
ETFs on Pace (Again) to Break a Record
At the end of April, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered approximately $360 billion of new money.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - April 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
US Payroll Gain of 177,000 Shows Uncertainty Yet to Dent Hiring
US job growth was robust in April and the unemployment rate held steady, suggesting uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to have a material impact on hiring plans.
Vehicle Sales: April 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 35.2% from that peak.
Employment Report: 177K Jobs Added in April, More Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 177,000 jobs were added in April, down from 185,000 in March but higher than the expected 138,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
"Soft" Data Hits Hard: Why Does Sentiment Matter?
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a so-called "soft" report, not reflecting "hard" data like GDP or CPI. It moved markets recently, so how much attention should investors pay?
April Showered with Tariff Talk, Market Volatility
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
The Real Lessons From the Plaza and Louvre Accords
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: April 2025
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.74, down from 1.85 in March. This is the lowest level in fifteen months.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: April 2025
Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 36.0 is 137% above its arithmetic mean, 159% above its geometric mean, and is in the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: April 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 145% Above Trend in April
At the end of April, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 145% above its long-term trend, down from 160% in March. This is the lowest variance in twelve months.
Six Ways the Federal Reserve Can Do a Better Job
The US Federal Reserve is undertaking a major rethink of how it manages the world’s largest economy.
US Economic Weakness Is Being Exaggerated – For Now
The US economy’s contraction last quarter was something of a head fake, driven by a surge in imports as businesses tried to front-run tariffs.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Subdued Growth in April
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: April 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
Gen Z’s Hole in the Labor Market Could Soon Grow
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
The Right OCIO Can Cure Insomnia in Restless Markets
Even in normal times, managing an investment program is a challenging job. But when you add on tariffs and trade wars, it's bound to lead to some sleepless nights. Learn how an OCIO firm can provide relief.
Three Ways to Avoid the Eye of the Equity Market Storm
With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.
The Supply Chain Has Seen This Before
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.5% in March
With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.
Margin Debt: March 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.7% in March
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.
Two Measures of Inflation: March 2025
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.