Market Indicators

The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which I reported on yesterday, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income
• Employment, unemployment, and hours
• Personal consumption and housing
• Sales, orders, and inventories

The advance estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9% (2.89% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.2% (3.24% to two decimal places) for the Q3 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.52% to two decimal points.

We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q4 2022 release) and initial jobless claims through 1/21.

The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

This morning's release of the December new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 616K, up 2.3% month-over-month from a revised 602K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 617K. The median home price is now at $442K.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.49 in December from -0.51 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, but two categories improved from November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14 in November.

The latest new orders number at 5.6% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 2.5% estimate. The series is up 11.9% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was down 0.1% MoM and up 2.1% YoY.

This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.

As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.

Fifth district manufacturing decreased in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index is at -11 in January, down 12 from December. This is worse than the Investing.com forecast of -5.

Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 5.77% month-over-month.

The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.

I've updated this series to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $47,438, down 8.6% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.

December's ZHVI came in at $357,319, slightly up from the previous month by 0.01% and up 10.8% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.77% MoM and 3.02% YoY.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.33M was down 1.55% from the November reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.37M.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.382M was slightly above the Investing.com forecast of 1.359M and is a 1.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.401M.

The latest manufacturing index came in at -8.9, up 4.8 from last month's -13.7, marking the index's fifth negative reading in a row and the seventh in the last eight months. The three-month moving average came in at -12.7, down from last month. The six-month outlook came in at 4.9, up from the previous month's -0.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.

Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.

This morning's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was down 1.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.2% increase last month. It is at 8.8% year-over-year, down from a 10.6% increase last month, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for December puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 6.45%. It is well above the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 2.5%.