Market Indicators

The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose unexpectedly to 10.103 million in April. This is the first monthly increase in job openings since December. The latest figure came in above the forecast of 9.775 million vacancies.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) regressed to 40.4 in May from 48.6 in April. This is the ninth straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in below the forecast of 47.0.

Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 30, 2023. Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 20.06%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 jumped into second with a YTD gain of 9.97% while France's CAC 40 dropped to third with a YTD gain of 8.84%.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The May average of the five districts is -17.5, down from the previous month. This is the lowest monthly average in the last three years.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The latest general business activity index came in at -29.1, down 5.7 from last month. The general business activity index has declined each of the past four months and has been in contraction territory since May of last year.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index ® slipped to 102.3 in May from April's upwardly revised reading of 103.7. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 99.0 forecast. The latest figure is the index's lowest reading in the past six months.

Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up month-over-month by 0.1% and was up 0.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.0% MoM and down 0.8% YoY.

In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for March. The index reached a record high last month, coming in at 398.0. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 3.6%. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% in March and up 0.2% year-over-year.

The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for April. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.3%, a decrease from 2.6% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 0.8%, a decrease from 2.0% for the Q4 headline number.

We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q1 2023 second estimate) and initial jobless claims through 5/20.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in April and is up 5.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year.

With the release of this morning's report on April's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.36% nominal and 2.87% real.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for April was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) and increased to 4.4% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE was also up 0.4% monthly and rose to 4.7% year-over-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.

New orders for manufactured durable goods came in better than expected in April at $283.02B. This is a 1.1% increase from last month and higher than the expected 1.1% decline. The series is up 4.2% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from last month and down 0.2% from last year.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four categories made negative contributions in April. All four categories improved from March.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 GDP second estimate, two out of the four components made positive contributions, one component made negative contributions, while the remaining component had a neutral impact.

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at -1. This is an increase from last month's figure and better than the expected -5 reading. The future outlook came in at 2, down slightly from April.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index remained at 78.9, representing a 0.0% change from last month, lower than the expected 0.5% increase. Pending home sales are down 20.3% compared to one year ago.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.07 in April from -0.37 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from March, but two of the four categories made negative contributions in April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.22 in April from -0.12 in March.

Fifth district manufacturing deteriorated in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index is at -15 in May, down 5 from April. This month's reading is worse than the Investing.com forecast of -8 and is the fifth consecutive month the index has reported worsening conditions.

This morning's release of the April new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 683K, up 4.1% month-over-month from a revised 656K in March. This is above the Investing.com forecast of 663K and the highest level in over a year. The median home price is now at $420,800, down $35K from March on a nominal basis.

The yield on the 10-year note ended May 19, 2023 at 3.70%, the 2-year note ended at 4.28%, and the 30-year at 3.95%.

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 28th, the index was at -9.436, up 3.080 from the previous week.

April's ZHVI came in at $339.048, up 0.34% from March and up 3.30% from April 2022. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in home value. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.21% month-over-month and -4.45% year-over-year.

This morning's release of the April existing home sales showed that sales continued to fall for a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million units from the previous month's 4.43 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% month-over-month decrease and was well below the forecast of a 0.1% increase in sales. Existing home sales are now down 23.2% compared to one year ago.

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April dropped to 107.5 from March's revised figure of 108.2. This is the 13th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009, and the lowest reading since September 2020. Today's reading represented a 0.6% month-over-month decline, consistent with the forecast.

The latest manufacturing index came in at -10.4, up 20.9 from last month, marking the index's ninth negative reading in a row. The six-month outlook was down 8.8 points from last month and remains in negative territory for the third straight month at -10.3.

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their April findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in April were up 0.42% and up 1.60% YoY. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales increased by 0.05% and were down 3.20% YoY.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.401M was just above Investing.com's forecast of 1.400M and is a 2.2% increase from the March's revised figure of 1.371M. Housing starts are down 22.3% compared to this time last year.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.416M came in below Investing.com's forecast of 1.437M and is a 1.5% decrease from March’s revised figure of 1.437M. Building permits are down 21.1% compared to one year ago.