The Fed-induced selloff in technology stocks has traders dusting off their turmoil playbooks. Trouble is, one of the most popular strategies isn’t working: hiding out in Apple Inc.
Lawmakers in the US House omitted further aid to Ukraine from a proposal that would keep the government open, signaling that support for funding its fight against the Russian invasion is getting harder.
Amid the debate over student loans — President Joe Biden’s administration tried and failed to forgive some of the debt, which starts accruing interest this month after a three-year pause — a crucial question has often been overlooked: Who benefits the most from student loans? It’s not necessarily the students.
The Federal Reserve’s hawks have been back on the speaking circuit,and markets are abuzz that rates may have to move higher than previously expected. Someone apparently just took out a big short position premised on the chances that rates markets underestimate the odds of an increase in November.
Since 2012, Puerto Rico has offered investors — primarily mainland Americans — one of the most attractive deals in the world: move to the commonwealth and pay no taxes on interest, dividends or capital gains, all while living on a balmy and culturally vibrant Caribbean island without having to surrender US citizenship.
The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.
Despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening and the regional banking crisis earlier this year, the U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient. Bond yields continue to rise, with long-term Treasuries at their highest level since October 2007.
Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
Anyone who even casually pays attention to the financial media has likely become familiar with the current state of inflation as well as how high interest rates have risen over the past ~2 years.
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
2023’s market rally continues to center itself on the big tech comeback with certain themes exhibiting strength like artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. While these themes can offer traders short-term opportunities, they can also persist in the long term as growth plays.
The S&P 500 fell for a fourth consecutive week, leading to the worst monthly loss of the year. The index is currently up 12.13% year to date and is 10.60% below its record close from January 3, 2022.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 4.93%, after a loss of 1.71% in August. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— are signaling "cash", up from last month's double "cash" signal.
We hope you enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
Like any recovering reporter, I like to keep tabs on my old beats, and the marijuana ETF space never disappoints. Or, perhaps more accurately, it never stops disappointing.
In what has been a hugely disruptive year for social media, Zuckerberg seems to be coming out on top — and enjoying it.
Share debuts among technology companies haven’t inspired confidence this year, with two of the largest offerings sliding below their listing prices within the first week. The next big deal may reignite interest in IPOs because of a unique set of traits.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation rose at the slowest monthly pace since late 2020, helping to lay the groundwork for policymakers to forgo an interest-rate hike at their next meeting.
The JPMorgan Asset Management money manager at the helm of the largest active exchange-traded fund in the $7.2 trillion industry is coming to market with another equity strategy geared toward investors bracing for a period of uncertainty.
Russia plans to reduce diesel exports from its key western ports to almost nothing next month after the government banned overseas sales to tame surging prices at home.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
The September final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 68.1, down 1.4 (-2.0%) from the August final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 67.7. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 20.0% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) of 85.1 and 18.9% below its geometric mean of 84.0.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 44.1 in September from 48.7 in August. The latest reading is worse than the 47.6 forecast and marks the 13th straight month in contraction territory.
The post-Covid era seems ripe for a Yogi-ism since economists and policymakers have been so wrong about the path of the economy and inflation. Yes, inflation is finally on a downward trend, but it has proven far stickier than the Federal Reserve and most economists predicted and remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in August and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.
With the release of August's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.18% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.76% nominal and 3.17% real.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation slowed in August. Core PCE, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 0.1% from July and slowed to 3.9% year-over-year, the lowest reading in over two years but still above the Fed's 2% target rate.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 15th, the index was at 9.655, up 2.343 from the previous week.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been at the forefront of the 2023 market rally, offering investors long-term growth opportunity as well as short-term trading opportunities. For the latter, consider a pair of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Direxion Investments.
The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
Small-cap stocks and related exchange traded funds are taking a back seat to large-cap counterparts this year. The Russell 2000 Index has shed almost 5% over the past month. However, some market observers remain constructive on smaller stocks.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9% for Q3, which would be the fastest quarterly growth rate since the earlier part of the COVID recovery.
I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP third estimate, all four components made positive contributions.
Join the experts at VettaFi for an interactive webinar featuring Bob Minter and Dan Magnusson from abrdn, as they discuss current market events and their impact on the commodity asset class, how emerging markets are helping to drive commodity investment opportunities, and where commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
Join the experts at VettaFi, iShares, and FTSE Russell to dig into the market outlook and unpack some of the most important conversations in investing.
The third estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.1%, a deceleration from 2.2% for the Q1 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.60%, a decrease from 1.81% for the Q1 headline number.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
Home prices are once again on the rise following a brief decline.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined somewhat in September and the future outlook fell slightly. The composite index came in at -8, down from 0 in August, while the future outlook decreased to 1 from 2 last month.
If a teacher, electrician or autoworker buys a stock or a share in a mutual fund, the Securities and Exchange Commission aims to ensure they’re investing on a level playing field.
The US may be heading back into a “vibecession” — a condition in which consumer confidence and other economic “vibes” decline so much that they threaten to become self-fulfilling prophecies and drag the economy down with them.
The two-month selloff in US stocks threatens to intensify as options dealers on Wall Street and fast-money traders both turn against the market.
