Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely viewed as the fuel for the rocket known as growth and technology stocks in 2023. While there is truth to that notion, there’s more to the story. Including the “magnificent seven” cadre of mega-cap growth names that are powering the market higher this year.
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation.
Given concentration risk, understanding what a strategy and portfolio owns is more important than ever in current markets.
ETF Trends interviewed three sources about active ETFs, why financial advisors are opting for these investment solutions for clients, and how these factors have changed in recent years. Each source responded to the same questions in their respective interviews.
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
In State Street Global Advisors’ recent Gold ETF Impact Study, the firm reported that “36% of surveyed investors don’t invest in gold because they don’t know enough about the ways that they can invest in gold.”
The biggest growth companies continue to increase their concentration in major equity indexes this year. It’s not surprising that investors are starting to rethink their exposure to large-caps, given concentration risk and ongoing market uncertainty.
Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.
Just about 10 “mega-cap” firms have driven more than 80% of the S&P 500’s growth in 2023. For some, that’s proven to be a source of robust returns, but that statistic also means heightened concentration risk for everyone.
Broad-based dividend strategies haven’t performed very well in 2023. But panelists at VettaFi’s Equity Symposium argued that there is value in dividend ETFs — investors just need to know where to look.
Existing home sales continued their downward trend in August as prices remained elevated. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell by 0.7% from July to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 4.10 million. Existing home sales are down 15.3% compared to one year ago.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 17th consecutive month in August as economic uncertainty and recession fears continue to grow. The index dropped 0.4% from last month to 105.4, the index's lowest reading since June 2020.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped back into negative territory indicating a decline in activity. In September, the index fell to -13.5, coming in below the forecast of -0.7. The six-month outlook remained positive for a fourth consecutive month at 11.1.
In the week ending September 16, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since January. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were at 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 221,000. The latest reading was below the forecast of 225,000.
Inverted curves (when the gold line goes below the red line meaning that short maturity yields are higher compared to longer maturity yields) have preceded recessions.
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt.
For active managers, the math is stark. Out of thousands of mutual funds, literally only one beat the Nasdaq 100 over the last five, 10 and 15 years. It did so by boiling down stock picks to about two dozen companies and riding almost all of them to gains.
Given the uncertainty over a recession, there are other incremental steps that investors may want to consider instead. These include making adjustments to a portfolio’s market beta and credit exposure.
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
In arguably quiet fashion, active managers are performing admirably in 2023. An impressive percentage of active equity and fixed income funds beat their benchmarks in the first half of the year.
Celebrating an exciting milestone: Franklin Income Fund turns 75. Learn more about this flagship strategy and read some fun facts from back in 1948.
As investors consider the complicated environment we live in, building a portfolio requires a robust understanding of market sentiment, volatility, styles, and positioning. Strategies centered around sector rotation that put volatility top of mind or asset allocation strategies that have smart, tactical risk management can help advisors construct a portfolio to meet the moment.
Join a panel of experts from State Street Global Advisors, VettaFi, Horizon Investments, and Main Management for an in-depth webcast.
Gas prices climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of October last year. As of September 18, the price of regular and premium gas rose by 6 and 8 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $90.58, up 3.8% from last week.
These days, high-yield US bonds yield just 378 basis points over Treasuries, more than 2 percentage points below the 2022 high and close to the narrowest gap since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last year.
Have you ever wondered why your closing ratio on seminar attendees rarely exceeds 40%?
New residential housing starts plummeted to their slowest pace since 2020 according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million, falling short of the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks an 11.3% decrease from July and a 14.8% decline compared to one year ago.
New residential building permits jumped to their fastest pace in almost a year according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.543 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks a 6.9% increase from July but reflects a 2.7% decrease compared to the same period last year.
There’s an invisible force driving the most popular options trade of the year — one that gives Wall Street pros and day traders alike the power to turn a $1 investment into a $1,000 stock bet.
When markets are in a rising tide, all boats (aka stocks) can benefit. When the waters are choppier, active equity selection aims to identify the sounder vessels. Tony DeSpirito reviews five reasons why he believes the new environment is setting up to favor an active approach.
Despite substantial growth and huge advancements in public policy support, clean energy has had an abysmal stretch in the stock market the last two and a half years.
Managing volatility is a high priority for advisors. The right investments can stabilize a portfolio and dampen volatility, while keeping goals on track. Increasing bond allocations used to be the standard way to reduce volatility, but with bonds more correlated to equities, their diversification value has decreased. With high inflation, bonds also aren’t providing enough real income for many investors.
Demand for private credit has increased because of its low correlation to traditional equities and bonds, and enhanced income potential. As an asset class, private credit has a history of resiliency throughout economic downturns. That was true during the pandemic, and last year when these types of loans largely held up, in contrast to the bond market which had historically bad performance.
My guest today will discuss how advisors can reduce volatility, increase income and diversify equity and bond allocations through private credit and other alternatives.
His approach to investing was both timeless and accessible to the average investor. It also achieved incredible results.
Warren Buffett has advised investors to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. New research confirms Buffett’s admonition.
High mortgage rates continue to weaken builder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 5 points from last month to 45, the index's second straight monthly decline.
Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst.
In a significant turnaround for its aviation sector, Mexico’s air safety rating was upgraded from Category 2 back to Category 1 by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The upgrade could be a game-changer, offering opportunities for both Mexican airlines and their U.S. joint venture partners.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
AI, with its data analysis and predictive power, can revolutionize investing. However, humans remain a crucial part of the process. Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions provides use cases into how different investors can harness AI to achieve their desired outcomes and workflows.
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.
All week, stock traders have shrugged off everything from hot inflation data in the US to another recession-threatening hike in interest rates over in Europe.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
That’s a bold prediction in the title. I believe it will come true.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% and up 2.47% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% growth in August, defying the forecasted 0.2% increase.
Wholesale inflation rose more than expected in August as producer prices increased for a second straight month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.7% month-over-month, its largest monthly increase since June 2022 (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated for a second straight month from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August (n.s.a).
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
This year’s hottest options trade has found its way into the $7.4 trillion ETF arena for the first time, in the latest push by the financial industry to tap booming demand for stock investments with an income stream.
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.
Over the last year and a half, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Recently, we have started to slowly make our way back down and are currently at levels seen during the early 1990s recession. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
ESG has dominated advisors’ minds when it comes to looking at the current generation of young prospective clients. It remains a popular investment approach for millennial and Gen Z clients per surveys.
Private equity has become an increasingly viable option for many individual investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and mitigate volatility. Here are a few reasons to consider PE as part of a strategic allocation to alternatives.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 91.3 in August, as small business owners continued to report inflation as their biggest problem. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 91.6 and marked the 20th consecutive month the index has been below the series average of 98.
In September, where volatility can strike at any time, investors will want the safety cushion of bonds for their portfolio. At the same time, short duration continues to be the default play as the U.S. Federal Reserve still attempts to cool down inflation further.
In the final part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Sherwood Zhang look at the companies that are reconfiguring their networks and portfolio manager Vivek Tanneeru gives his assessment on the investment opportunities.
A hard landing in China would rattle Asian economies.
Oil has entered a new uptrend after finally breaking out from nearly a year-long bottom formation. Support from OPEC+, notably Saudi Arabia’s one million barrel per day production cut for the remainder of the year, has been a major driver of the rally.
The S&P 500 Index’s surprise 16% rally this year is rewarding traders who bought in early and punishing those who’ve remained skeptical. But fear of a downturn remains.
Even though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, investors should prepare for continued market volatility this month.
Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, at Franklin Templeton Institute, shares some takeaways from a panel discussion on the topic.
For some organizations, a partial outsourcing of their investment program is preferable to total outsourcing. Despite this, some OCIO providers will still try very hard to sell companies on a full OCIO solution.
When you step back and think about it, it is hard to believe that this hugely important retirement benefit has only been around for just over 40 years.
Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, explores the positive trends that are making a case for holding UK equities.
Most portfolios live or die based on their equity allocations. VettaFi is thrilled to announce that they will be hosting an Equity Symposium on September 21st.
Private credit lenders are just getting started in the world of consumer and asset based finance, according to Rob Camacho, Blackstone Inc.’s co-head of asset based finance within the firm’s Structured Finance Group.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in July. The 12-month moving average was up 0.3% month-over-month and was up 1.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.2% MoM and up 0.1% YoY.
August saw modest market pullbacks across the board, as investors were nervous about risk.
I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for August. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 187K.
Let's take a close look at August's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.2% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.8% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
As soft-landing calls engulf Wall Street, traders are betting that a market calm will endure across investing strategies — despite the latest selloff in US stocks and bonds.
In the second part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Peeyush Mittal examine the regions and countries that may benefit from industries and companies shifting operations.
Seven mega-cap US-based companies – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta (Facebook) – have stayed top of mind for many investors this year.
In general, portfolios can be split into growth assets and principal protecting assets. Growth assets tend to have greater risk coupled with greater income/reward.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $14,122 for an annualized real return of 6.92%.
Should the US Securities and Exchange Commission approve an exchange-traded fund focused on the spot market for Bitcoin? The question has yet again gained relevance, thanks to the District of Columbia Court of Appeals, which last week reversed the SEC’s decision to reject a Bitcoin ETF proposed by Grayscale Investments.
Market making in digital tokens used to be a font of outsized profitability. The picture today is very different as costs jump and investors avoid a crypto sector scarred by a $2 trillion rout.
An electronic trading revolution is finally coming to corporate bonds, years after reaching other financial markets.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In July, the trade deficit expanded by 2.0% to $65.02B. The latest reading was below the forecast of $68.00B.
Buffer ETFs
Why Junior Gold Stocks Could Be Gearing Up For A Glittering Performance
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
Beyond AI: Reasons to Believe in Technology Stocks
Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely viewed as the fuel for the rocket known as growth and technology stocks in 2023. While there is truth to that notion, there’s more to the story. Including the “magnificent seven” cadre of mega-cap growth names that are powering the market higher this year.
Quarterly Market Outlook: A Delicate Balance
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
Treasury Buyback Plan Will Boost Market Resilience, US Debt Official Says
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.
Where to Add Risk in Multi-Asset Portfolios Right Now
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Another Yield High as US 10-Year Jumps Above Key 4.5% Level in Post-Fed Bond Rout
Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation.
The Importance of Valuations in High Concentration Markets
Given concentration risk, understanding what a strategy and portfolio owns is more important than ever in current markets.
The Rise of Active ETFs: 3 Experts Weigh In
ETF Trends interviewed three sources about active ETFs, why financial advisors are opting for these investment solutions for clients, and how these factors have changed in recent years. Each source responded to the same questions in their respective interviews.
Fed Pauses but Projects One More Hike This Year
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
Gaining Leveraged Exposure to Gold
In State Street Global Advisors’ recent Gold ETF Impact Study, the firm reported that “36% of surveyed investors don’t invest in gold because they don’t know enough about the ways that they can invest in gold.”
Looking to Large-Caps: Where Do We Grow From Here?
The biggest growth companies continue to increase their concentration in major equity indexes this year. It’s not surprising that investors are starting to rethink their exposure to large-caps, given concentration risk and ongoing market uncertainty.
Thematic ETF Trends to Watch Entering 2024
Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.
The Case for Mid and Small-Cap Stocks Right Now
Just about 10 “mega-cap” firms have driven more than 80% of the S&P 500’s growth in 2023. For some, that’s proven to be a source of robust returns, but that statistic also means heightened concentration risk for everyone.
There’s Value in Dividend ETFs. Investors Just Need to Know Where to Look
Broad-based dividend strategies haven’t performed very well in 2023. But panelists at VettaFi’s Equity Symposium argued that there is value in dividend ETFs — investors just need to know where to look.
Existing Home Sales Fall as Prices Rise
Existing home sales continued their downward trend in August as prices remained elevated. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell by 0.7% from July to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 4.10 million. Existing home sales are down 15.3% compared to one year ago.
CB Leading Economic Index Declines, Deepening Recession Fears
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 17th consecutive month in August as economic uncertainty and recession fears continue to grow. The index dropped 0.4% from last month to 105.4, the index's lowest reading since June 2020.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Declines
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped back into negative territory indicating a decline in activity. In September, the index fell to -13.5, coming in below the forecast of -0.7. The six-month outlook remained positive for a fourth consecutive month at 11.1.
Unemployment Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since January
In the week ending September 16, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since January. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were at 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 221,000. The latest reading was below the forecast of 225,000.
To the Point!
Inverted curves (when the gold line goes below the red line meaning that short maturity yields are higher compared to longer maturity yields) have preceded recessions.
Weathering the Storm: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation and the Investor’s Imperative
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt.
Only Fund Beating Nasdaq Long-Term Is Defying Stock-Picking Odds
For active managers, the math is stark. Out of thousands of mutual funds, literally only one beat the Nasdaq 100 over the last five, 10 and 15 years. It did so by boiling down stock picks to about two dozen companies and riding almost all of them to gains.
A Recession Is Possible, but Far From Certain. So How Should You Consider Positioning Your Portfolio?
Given the uncertainty over a recession, there are other incremental steps that investors may want to consider instead. These include making adjustments to a portfolio’s market beta and credit exposure.
Say Goodbye…to Great Moderation?
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
Assessing Allure of Active Management
In arguably quiet fashion, active managers are performing admirably in 2023. An impressive percentage of active equity and fixed income funds beat their benchmarks in the first half of the year.
A Pioneering Income Strategy Celebrates 75 Years
Celebrating an exciting milestone: Franklin Income Fund turns 75. Learn more about this flagship strategy and read some fun facts from back in 1948.
Going ‘Back to School’: Portfolio Construction in the New Normal
As investors consider the complicated environment we live in, building a portfolio requires a robust understanding of market sentiment, volatility, styles, and positioning. Strategies centered around sector rotation that put volatility top of mind or asset allocation strategies that have smart, tactical risk management can help advisors construct a portfolio to meet the moment.
Join a panel of experts from State Street Global Advisors, VettaFi, Horizon Investments, and Main Management for an in-depth webcast.
Weekly Gasoline Prices Reach 11-Month High
Gas prices climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of October last year. As of September 18, the price of regular and premium gas rose by 6 and 8 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $90.58, up 3.8% from last week.
Bond Mountaineers Easily Scale the Maturity Wall
These days, high-yield US bonds yield just 378 basis points over Treasuries, more than 2 percentage points below the 2022 high and close to the narrowest gap since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last year.
How Pre-Screening Avoids “Plate Lickers” at Seminars
Have you ever wondered why your closing ratio on seminar attendees rarely exceeds 40%?
Housing Starts Plummet 11.3% in August
New residential housing starts plummeted to their slowest pace since 2020 according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million, falling short of the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks an 11.3% decrease from July and a 14.8% decline compared to one year ago.
Building Permits Jump 6.9% in August
New residential building permits jumped to their fastest pace in almost a year according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.543 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks a 6.9% increase from July but reflects a 2.7% decrease compared to the same period last year.
The Most Popular Options Trade Turns a $1 Investment Into a $1,000 Stock Bet
There’s an invisible force driving the most popular options trade of the year — one that gives Wall Street pros and day traders alike the power to turn a $1 investment into a $1,000 stock bet.
5 Factors Favoring Stock Selection
When markets are in a rising tide, all boats (aka stocks) can benefit. When the waters are choppier, active equity selection aims to identify the sounder vessels. Tony DeSpirito reviews five reasons why he believes the new environment is setting up to favor an active approach.
Turbulence on the Path to Transformation
Despite substantial growth and huge advancements in public policy support, clean energy has had an abysmal stretch in the stock market the last two and a half years.
The Outlook for Alternative Investments
Managing volatility is a high priority for advisors. The right investments can stabilize a portfolio and dampen volatility, while keeping goals on track. Increasing bond allocations used to be the standard way to reduce volatility, but with bonds more correlated to equities, their diversification value has decreased. With high inflation, bonds also aren’t providing enough real income for many investors.
Demand for private credit has increased because of its low correlation to traditional equities and bonds, and enhanced income potential. As an asset class, private credit has a history of resiliency throughout economic downturns. That was true during the pandemic, and last year when these types of loans largely held up, in contrast to the bond market which had historically bad performance.
My guest today will discuss how advisors can reduce volatility, increase income and diversify equity and bond allocations through private credit and other alternatives.
The Greatest Investor You’ve Never Heard Of
His approach to investing was both timeless and accessible to the average investor. It also achieved incredible results.
Buffett was Right About Sentiment and the VIX as Predictors of Returns
Warren Buffett has advised investors to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. New research confirms Buffett’s admonition.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Weakened by High Mortgage Rates
High mortgage rates continue to weaken builder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 5 points from last month to 45, the index's second straight monthly decline.
Predictions Are Pointless. Why You Shouldn’t Listen To Gurus.
Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst.
Why Mexico’s Category 1 Air Safety Status Spells Good News For Investors
In a significant turnaround for its aviation sector, Mexico’s air safety rating was upgraded from Category 2 back to Category 1 by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The upgrade could be a game-changer, offering opportunities for both Mexican airlines and their U.S. joint venture partners.
Schwab Market Perspective: Tension
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
China Hits a Speed Bump. Could the Road Ahead Feature More Stimulus?
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
What's in My Personal Portfolio?
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
Copilot, Not Autopilot: How Generative AI Augments, but Doesn’t Replace Active Management
AI, with its data analysis and predictive power, can revolutionize investing. However, humans remain a crucial part of the process. Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions provides use cases into how different investors can harness AI to achieve their desired outcomes and workflows.
Easing Deflation Could Give China Bulls Some Hope
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
Locking in Target Returns
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Why Global Bonds Make Sense for US Investors
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Munis Fall Short Of Seasonal Expectations In August
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
Central Banks and Investors Are Interested in Gold
Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.
A $4 Trillion ‘Triple Witching’ Event Endangers Stock Market Calm
All week, stock traders have shrugged off everything from hot inflation data in the US to another recession-threatening hike in interest rates over in Europe.
Inflation Is Coming Down. Will Treasury Yields Be Next?
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
The Fed Will Cut Rates in 2024
That’s a bold prediction in the title. I believe it will come true.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales Down 0.1% in August
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% and up 2.47% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.
Retail Sales Rise 0.6% in August, Exceeding Expectations
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% growth in August, defying the forecasted 0.2% increase.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Rises to 1.6% in August
Wholesale inflation rose more than expected in August as producer prices increased for a second straight month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.7% month-over-month, its largest monthly increase since June 2022 (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated for a second straight month from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August (n.s.a).
What Shifting Stock-Bond Correlations Mean for Your Money
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
Zero-Day Options Boom Is Spilling Into $7.4 Trillion ETF Market
This year’s hottest options trade has found its way into the $7.4 trillion ETF arena for the first time, in the latest push by the financial industry to tap booming demand for stock investments with an income stream.
Impact of Local Infrastructure Investments on a Portfolio
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: August 2023
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
New CLO Managers Eye $1.3 Trillion Market, Betting on Return
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.
Inflationary Insights: Breaking Down the August CPI
Over the last year and a half, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Recently, we have started to slowly make our way back down and are currently at levels seen during the early 1990s recession. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
Gen Z Clients: The Active ETF Investing Generation?
ESG has dominated advisors’ minds when it comes to looking at the current generation of young prospective clients. It remains a popular investment approach for millennial and Gen Z clients per surveys.
Three reasons to invest in private equity
Private equity has become an increasingly viable option for many individual investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and mitigate volatility. Here are a few reasons to consider PE as part of a strategic allocation to alternatives.
Inflation Remains Biggest Problem for Small Businesses
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 91.3 in August, as small business owners continued to report inflation as their biggest problem. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 91.6 and marked the 20th consecutive month the index has been below the series average of 98.
Look No Further for Active, Short-Term Exposure to Bonds
In September, where volatility can strike at any time, investors will want the safety cushion of bonds for their portfolio. At the same time, short duration continues to be the default play as the U.S. Federal Reserve still attempts to cool down inflation further.
Investing in an Emerging World Order. Part 3
In the final part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Sherwood Zhang look at the companies that are reconfiguring their networks and portfolio manager Vivek Tanneeru gives his assessment on the investment opportunities.
Spillovers From China’s Malaise
A hard landing in China would rattle Asian economies.
Breaking Down the Breakout in Oil
Oil has entered a new uptrend after finally breaking out from nearly a year-long bottom formation. Support from OPEC+, notably Saudi Arabia’s one million barrel per day production cut for the remainder of the year, has been a major driver of the rally.
Fear of Stock Market Dive Creeps Back as Hedging Costs Climb
The S&P 500 Index’s surprise 16% rally this year is rewarding traders who bought in early and punishing those who’ve remained skeptical. But fear of a downturn remains.
September, The Market’s Most Feared Month, Could Be A Golden Opportunity
Even though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, investors should prepare for continued market volatility this month.
Investment Ideas—Building Portfolios During Economic Uncertainty
Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, at Franklin Templeton Institute, shares some takeaways from a panel discussion on the topic.
What Do Investment Outsourcing and Ice Cream Have in Common?
For some organizations, a partial outsourcing of their investment program is preferable to total outsourcing. Despite this, some OCIO providers will still try very hard to sell companies on a full OCIO solution.
Remember These Investing Concepts When Planning Your Future
When you step back and think about it, it is hard to believe that this hugely important retirement benefit has only been around for just over 40 years.
Time to Snag UK Equities From the Brexit Bargain Bin?
Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, explores the positive trends that are making a case for holding UK equities.
VettaFi Equity Symposium Set for September 21st
Most portfolios live or die based on their equity allocations. VettaFi is thrilled to announce that they will be hosting an Equity Symposium on September 21st.
Blackstone Says Private Credit Is Coming for Asset-Based Debt
Private credit lenders are just getting started in the world of consumer and asset based finance, according to Rob Camacho, Blackstone Inc.’s co-head of asset based finance within the firm’s Structured Finance Group.
America's Driving Habits as of July 2023
Travel on all roads and streets increased in July. The 12-month moving average was up 0.3% month-over-month and was up 1.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.2% MoM and up 0.1% YoY.
Looking Back at the Markets in August and Ahead to September 2023
August saw modest market pullbacks across the board, as investors were nervous about risk.
U.S. Workforce Analysis: August 2023 Update
I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for August. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 187K.
A Deeper Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment
Let's take a close look at August's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.2% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.8% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Traders Unfazed as Soft-Landing Calls Stoke Bets on Market Calm
As soft-landing calls engulf Wall Street, traders are betting that a market calm will endure across investing strategies — despite the latest selloff in US stocks and bonds.
Investing in an Emerging World Order. Part 2
In the second part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Peeyush Mittal examine the regions and countries that may benefit from industries and companies shifting operations.
Factors & the Magnificent Seven
Seven mega-cap US-based companies – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta (Facebook) – have stayed top of mind for many investors this year.
In Case You Haven’t Noticed
In general, portfolios can be split into growth assets and principal protecting assets. Growth assets tend to have greater risk coupled with greater income/reward.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $14,122 for an annualized real return of 6.92%.
Who Needs a Bitcoin ETF? Actually the SEC Does.
Should the US Securities and Exchange Commission approve an exchange-traded fund focused on the spot market for Bitcoin? The question has yet again gained relevance, thanks to the District of Columbia Court of Appeals, which last week reversed the SEC’s decision to reject a Bitcoin ETF proposed by Grayscale Investments.
Crypto Market-Making Profit Margins Sink 30% in ‘Wake-Up Call’
Market making in digital tokens used to be a font of outsized profitability. The picture today is very different as costs jump and investors avoid a crypto sector scarred by a $2 trillion rout.
Quant Firm Man Numeric Aims to Go 100% Electronic for Credit Trades By 2025
An electronic trading revolution is finally coming to corporate bonds, years after reaching other financial markets.
Trade Deficit Expands to $65.02B
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In July, the trade deficit expanded by 2.0% to $65.02B. The latest reading was below the forecast of $68.00B.