The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Whenever faced with tradeoffs between risk and return, we recommend turning to expected utility. The method of maximizing expected utility is the most sensible technique for making these tradeoffs, taking into account both your personal preferences and the specifics of the situation.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 0.3% in June to $334.77B, less than the projected 1.6% monthly growth.
June may have proven to be a difficult month for silver investors, but it’s likely far too soon to give up on the precious metal. To better understand this, it’s important to contextualize why silver’s price is struggling and why the metal’s long-term opportunities are still there.
Kioxia Holdings Corp. faces more wild price swings with leveraged exchange-traded funds tracking the Japanese memory chipmaker’s shares set to be listed in the US.
Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.
Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.
The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Emerging markets are quietly having their best decade in a generation, and most global investors still don’t own enough. The case for investing in emerging markets today is not the tired characterisation of a high growth, low valuation opportunity.
Healthcare systems across the country are facing a difficult reality. Costs are rising faster than revenues, balance sheets are under pressure, the pacing of private market allocations are harder to manage, and liquidity has become an important topic for many organizations.
It may seem premature to focus on the November US midterm elections. Polls will shift, economic data will evolve and unexpected events will reshape the political landscape in the months ahead.
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.
The U.S. energy sector has outperformed in 2026, driven primarily by geopolitical-related supply fears, elevated oil prices, and rising demand from the AI infrastructure buildout. While broad energy funds have also surged, investors can potentially enhance exposure by targeting specific segments of the energy market.
In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
Research Affiliates and PIMCO leadership analyze key 2026 midyear market shifts, warning of elevated U.S. and AI equity valuations.
During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.
Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the standouts, along with a slew of cyclicals reporting Q2 results.
Resilient earnings, improving industrial activity and the AI investment cycle should continue to support equities, according to Putnam Equity’s Shep Perkins. But the same forces driving the market higher are also making companies harder to value.
The summer has once again brought a miasma of wildfire smoke across wide stretches of the nation, leading to hazy views and slower activity. The clouds in our outlook are not merely atmospheric. A failed ceasefire and renewed conflict in the Middle East have created new reasons to worry about economic performance.
Inflation remains above target, especially the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure, as choppy data have challenged the view that disinflation will proceed smoothly.
Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June from -0.19 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and two categories made negative contributions.
The World Cup games that went into extra time were reminders of just how tough it can be for players to keep up their momentum over the long haul.
In the week ending July 18th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 187,000, the lowest level since 1969. This represents a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's figure and was significantly lower than the forecast of 211,000.
Investors continue to benefit from two powerful tailwinds: strong stock-market performance and bond yields that remain attractive compared with much of the post-financial-crisis period. Higher yields have improved the income generated by fixed income portfolios and given investors more flexibility to balance income, liquidity, and interest rate risk.
AI continues to evolve. Early offerings in the 2010s around machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics helped ignite the Big Data era and allow for the ingestion and processing of both structured and unstructured data at previously unimaginable speeds and volumes.
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
Last week’s dominant story was the sharp unwinding of the momentum trade that has carried the market for months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 10 per cent over the week and is down 21 per cent from June’s peak. Bear markets are defined as drawdowns of 20 per cent or more.
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
When clients, specifically, feel they matter to their advisor, they engage more deeply in the planning process, follow through on recommendations, refer more frequently, and build lasting relationships that transcend market volatility.
The first half of 2026 was shaped by market-moving headlines. The conflict in the Middle East was the most significant story, triggering a short-term market sell-off.
The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
A Roland Berger study finds family offices moving capital into infrastructure and private equity while retreating from riskier bets abroad.
Gasoline prices rose for a second straight week, jumping back above $4.00 for the first time in over a month.
Government bonds are back in focus, as investors reassess where value lies in global fixed income. With markets wavering over how quickly interest rates will fall, sovereign debt in several developed economies is starting to look attractive again to us.
Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings that topped estimates as retail investors continued to jump in and out of the market amid volatility sparked by geopolitical uncertainty.
VettaFi’s Midyear Market Outlook symposium Thursday saw industry leaders take on the big questions. Where is the market going? How should investors and advisors navigate uncertainty and potential volatility? Leaders from Fidelity Investments and Invesco both joined for one of the early segments, focused on innovative U.S. strategies.
As we move into the second half of 2026, U.S. large-cap stocks may be on pace to deliver their fourth straight year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 Index up 11.4% through July 10, 2026.
The shine has come off silver since it skyrocketed to over $100 an ounce in January. The price has dropped by over 50 percent from the record high. However, there are still reasons to be bullish on silver moving forward, including persistent supply deficits and growing industrial demand.
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
Whenever I speak at investment conferences, I like to point out that we invest in a number of publicly traded airports. I even list them: Spain’s Aena. Aeroports de Paris. Zurich Airport. Airports of Thailand. Two of the world’s largest operators, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico, trade in Mexico.
There are several market headwinds that warrant attention, as well as a tailwind that may be large enough to keep the boat moving forward. Fully understanding the headwinds and tailwinds will help you better monitor the market barometer, allowing you to assess and adjust risk levels with more awareness going forward.
After last week’s wipeout in chips and the broader selloff in technology stocks, pressure is building for the biggest spenders on artificial intelligence to justify their expenditures to beleaguered traders with increasingly itchy fingers hovering over their sell buttons.
US stocks advanced on Monday, paring last week’s slump, as chipmakers rebounded amid a deluge of earnings reports that will test whether Big Tech’s profits can match high expectations.
Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never been more inviting. The losses have never been more documented. Here are some key statistics we will dive into further.
It seems to be the end of the Great Moderation Era for the U.S. economy. The Great Moderation Era—which marked most of the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic—is drifting away into what we call the new Temperamental Era.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and known as "Mr. Valuation," explains why overpaying for a stock is often the greatest threat to long-term investment success. Using over 30 real-world examples, Chuck demonstrates how even outstanding companies can deliver poor returns when investors buy them at excessive valuations.
So far in 2026, we’ve seen that benchmark index returns can obscure important market dynamics. Even during a historically strong quarter, underlying dispersion created meaningful opportunities for tax-loss harvesting in custom equity portfolios.
The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation. Franklin Income Investors Chief Investment Officer Ed Perks discusses how markets have evolved, where opportunities are emerging, and why diversification remains critical heading into the second half of the year.
Investors must determine what the AI capital-spending surge means for long-term business durability.
For physicians, major financial decisions may rarely affect just one area of their financial life. The real potential risk is failing to understand how those decisions impact everything else.
A record inflow hit the largest US-listed South Korea exchange-traded fund, as investors seeking exposure to SK Hynix Inc. piled into the ETF as a proxy at a time when the chipmaker’s new American depositary receipts trade at a substantial premium to its local shares.
Entering Wednesday, the Russell 2000 and S&P SmallCap 600 indexes were up an average of 20.8% year-to-date, confirming small-cap stocks are back with a vengeance. Arguably overlooked in that scenario, some vibrant ETFs represent higher-quality approaches to smaller stocks.
A country drowning in energy shouldn't also feel like it's running out of electricity. In other words: before we ask whether America can make more things again, we should probably ask whether America can power the production.
On July 15, Direxion launched the Direxion Daily SK Hynix Bull 2X ETF (SKHL), seeking to replicate double the daily performance of the South Korean semiconductor manufacturers Sk Hynix (SKHY). The fund provides leveraged exposure to the world’s leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory chips. It boasts an expense ratio of 97 basis points.
As the forces shaping bond markets become more local, the opportunities become more global. From energy stress to fiscal policy to advances in AI, today’s defining market forces are likely to play out differently across regions, sectors and issuers.
For many investors and families, tax planning may become a year-end exercise squeezed into November and December. But by the time the calendar turns to the fourth quarter, many of the most effective opportunities are already limited.
Tax-aware long-short strategies are no longer the exclusive domain of institutional investors. As separate account delivery has expanded access, more advisors are asking whether tax-aware long-short belongs in their clients’ portfolios. Here are five practical considerations to help you decide.
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
Building permits fell 3.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.367 million. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.400 million.
Housing starts jumped 19.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, beating forecasts driven by a massive surge in multi-family units.
Our baseline outlook still sees the Fed on hold through 2026 amid gradually easing price pressures. But Waller’s comments suggest that after a string of firmer Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation prints, the Fed now places greater emphasis on responding if inflation surprises sharply to the upside or proves more persistent than expected, regardless of which factors are driving the inflation. And this raises the stakes for incoming inflation data throughout the year.
Midyear is a useful moment in investing—not because it tells us where we are going, but because it offers a clearer view of how little we truly knew at the start. Six months is often enough time for confident forecasts to meet reality, for consensus narratives to fray, and for the distinction between what sounded plausible and what proved durable to come into focus.
Gold and silver traded in a volatile fashion over the past several days as investors weighed conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve, economic data, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
The rules governing global commodity markets are starting to witness a profound shift, which is putting critical minerals at the forefront of policy. On a recent episode of ETF Guide’s Metals in Motion, Justin Tolman, Senior Portfolio Manager and Economic Geologist at Sprott Asset Management, discussed this dynamic.
Nominal retail sales were up 0.22% month-over-month and up 6.72% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.15% year-over-year.
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity expanded significantly in July, with the index jumping 31.1 points to 41.4. This marks the highest level for the index since November 2021 and was more than triple the forecast of 12.7.
U.S. headline retail sales increased for a fifth straight month, rising 0.2% to $768.6B in June, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.2%.
This paper presents the case for emerging market (EM) allocations within the broader context of global investment strategy. In a period of heightened geopolitical complexity—spanning the 2026 US-Iran conflict, challenges to globalization, political transformation and ongoing great power competition—we believe the case for engaged emerging markets exposure has never been stronger.
The Q2 earnings season is off to a rollercoaster start. The big banks collectively reported strong numbers, boosted by active capital markets and another impressive set of sales & trading revenue. And it was the usual chorus of bank CEO macro commentary:
In June we pointed out that Health Care looks cheap. Even though it has been rallying hard of late, the sector continues to trade at a 59% price-to-sales discount to the S&P 500, despite having an 18% return on equity (ROE) that is just a hair below the 19% ROE accorded the S&P 500.
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced its largest decline in over a year in June, with wholesale inflation dropping 0.3%.
In the span of just two weeks, Meta Platforms Inc. has gone from a market afterthought to one of its hottest stocks, as investors finally like what Facebook’s parent is saying about its artificial intelligence plans.
The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 500 has a material risk of losing something on the order of 75% over the completion of this cycle.
The first half of 2026 reinforced an important lesson for fixed income investors: Tax-loss harvesting opportunities don’t always arrive at year-end, often appearing during short periods of market dislocation when interest rates rise, new-issue supply increases or investor sentiment shifts.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ benefited from a semiconductor rebound and renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure names. The Dow, weighted more toward “old economy” stocks than high-growth names, captured none of last week’s gains.
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
Buffer ETFs
How to Properly Measure Risk
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
When a $10 Million Tax Break Isn’t Worth the Wait
Whenever faced with tradeoffs between risk and return, we recommend turning to expected utility. The method of maximizing expected utility is the most sensible technique for making these tradeoffs, taking into account both your personal preferences and the specifics of the situation.
Durable Goods Orders Rise 0.3% in June, Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 0.3% in June to $334.77B, less than the projected 1.6% monthly growth.
How an Industrial Surge Can Drive Silver Price Comeback
June may have proven to be a difficult month for silver investors, but it’s likely far too soon to give up on the precious metal. To better understand this, it’s important to contextualize why silver’s price is struggling and why the metal’s long-term opportunities are still there.
Kioxia Faces More Volatility as Leveraged ETFs Hit Japan Stocks
Kioxia Holdings Corp. faces more wild price swings with leveraged exchange-traded funds tracking the Japanese memory chipmaker’s shares set to be listed in the US.
Oil Rebounds as Global Supply Risks Intensify
Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.
Liability-Driven Investing Midyear Outlook 2026: Well-Funded Corporate Plans
Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.
Equity Takeaways from Our H2 2026 Economic & Market Outlook
The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.
AI, Oil, and a Changing Global Economy
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
The Defensive Shift: This Week’s Top 10 ETF Inflows
The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Why Now Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are quietly having their best decade in a generation, and most global investors still don’t own enough. The case for investing in emerging markets today is not the tired characterisation of a high growth, low valuation opportunity.
Healthcare Systems’ Liquidity Challenge
Healthcare systems across the country are facing a difficult reality. Costs are rising faster than revenues, balance sheets are under pressure, the pacing of private market allocations are harder to manage, and liquidity has become an important topic for many organizations.
US Midterm Elections—Interpreting the Early Signs
It may seem premature to focus on the November US midterm elections. Polls will shift, economic data will evolve and unexpected events will reshape the political landscape in the months ahead.
Long Term Rate Headache
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
The Biggest Election Risk: Tunnel Vision
Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.
Navigating the Energy Surge: A Value-Chain Guide to Energy ETFs
The U.S. energy sector has outperformed in 2026, driven primarily by geopolitical-related supply fears, elevated oil prices, and rising demand from the AI infrastructure buildout. While broad energy funds have also surged, investors can potentially enhance exposure by targeting specific segments of the energy market.
Muni Monthly: June 2026
In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
A Call for Diversification: Research Affiliates-PIMCO Midyear Recap
Research Affiliates and PIMCO leadership analyze key 2026 midyear market shifts, warning of elevated U.S. and AI equity valuations.
For Downturn Protection, Consider CLO ETFs
During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.
Resilience by Construction: How Index Evolution Drives Earnings Strength
Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength
What is Going on With Gold?
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
Mild Macro Data Sets up AI Tech Earnings and a Busy August Corporate Event Stretch
It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the standouts, along with a slew of cyclicals reporting Q2 results.
The Price of Admission: Further Equity Upside Comes With a Cost—Volatility
Resilient earnings, improving industrial activity and the AI investment cycle should continue to support equities, according to Putnam Equity’s Shep Perkins. But the same forces driving the market higher are also making companies harder to value.
Tug Of War
The summer has once again brought a miasma of wildfire smoke across wide stretches of the nation, leading to hazy views and slower activity. The clouds in our outlook are not merely atmospheric. A failed ceasefire and renewed conflict in the Middle East have created new reasons to worry about economic performance.
When Monetary Policy Surprises Stop Translating
Inflation remains above target, especially the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure, as choppy data have challenged the view that disinflation will proceed smoothly.
A New ‘Warsh’ Cycle
Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Increased in June
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June from -0.19 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and two categories made negative contributions.
A Shift In Stock Market Leadership
The World Cup games that went into extra time were reminders of just how tough it can be for players to keep up their momentum over the long haul.
Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 1969
In the week ending July 18th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 187,000, the lowest level since 1969. This represents a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's figure and was significantly lower than the forecast of 211,000.
Bond Investor’s “Bird in Hand”
Investors continue to benefit from two powerful tailwinds: strong stock-market performance and bond yields that remain attractive compared with much of the post-financial-crisis period. Higher yields have improved the income generated by fixed income portfolios and given investors more flexibility to balance income, liquidity, and interest rate risk.
Agentic AI—The Killer Use Case for Blockchain and Crypto
AI continues to evolve. Early offerings in the 2010s around machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics helped ignite the Big Data era and allow for the ingestion and processing of both structured and unstructured data at previously unimaginable speeds and volumes.
Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
Momentum Trade Moves into Bear Market Territory
Last week’s dominant story was the sharp unwinding of the momentum trade that has carried the market for months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 10 per cent over the week and is down 21 per cent from June’s peak. Bear markets are defined as drawdowns of 20 per cent or more.
Market Broadening Gains Momentum as AI Uncertainty Grows
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
Making Clients Matter: How Mercurio’s Principles Can Help Your Advisory Practice
When clients, specifically, feel they matter to their advisor, they engage more deeply in the planning process, follow through on recommendations, refer more frequently, and build lasting relationships that transcend market volatility.
2026 Midyear Outlook: What’s Next for Markets?
The first half of 2026 was shaped by market-moving headlines. The conflict in the Middle East was the most significant story, triggering a short-term market sell-off.
Rich Spreads, Cheap Treasuries, and an Incomplete Explanation
The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.
Froth Coming Out. Tape Remains Resilient.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Equity Takeaways from Our H2 2026 Economic & Market Outlook
The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.
China Holds Keys to Post-War Oil Prices
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
Risk-Wary Family Offices Double Down on Infrastructure
A Roland Berger study finds family offices moving capital into infrastructure and private equity while retreating from riskier bets abroad.
Gasoline Prices Jump Back Above $4.00
Gasoline prices rose for a second straight week, jumping back above $4.00 for the first time in over a month.
U.S. Investors Looking for Global Fixed Income Exposure: Try Government Bonds, Selective Credit Picks
Government bonds are back in focus, as investors reassess where value lies in global fixed income. With markets wavering over how quickly interest rates will fall, sovereign debt in several developed economies is starting to look attractive again to us.
Schwab Beats Estimates as Retail Investors Pile Into Market
Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings that topped estimates as retail investors continued to jump in and out of the market amid volatility sparked by geopolitical uncertainty.
Fidelity, Invesco Leaders on Opportunities in the Second Half
VettaFi’s Midyear Market Outlook symposium Thursday saw industry leaders take on the big questions. Where is the market going? How should investors and advisors navigate uncertainty and potential volatility? Leaders from Fidelity Investments and Invesco both joined for one of the early segments, focused on innovative U.S. strategies.
Stocks: Prices Up, Valuations Down
As we move into the second half of 2026, U.S. large-cap stocks may be on pace to deliver their fourth straight year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 Index up 11.4% through July 10, 2026.
The Bullish Case for Silver
The shine has come off silver since it skyrocketed to over $100 an ounce in January. The price has dropped by over 50 percent from the record high. However, there are still reasons to be bullish on silver moving forward, including persistent supply deficits and growing industrial demand.
Q3 Equity Outlook: AI: A Paradigm Shift
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
America Is the Only Major Market Without Publicly Traded Airports
Whenever I speak at investment conferences, I like to point out that we invest in a number of publicly traded airports. I even list them: Spain’s Aena. Aeroports de Paris. Zurich Airport. Airports of Thailand. Two of the world’s largest operators, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico, trade in Mexico.
Headwinds & Tailwinds: Minding The Market Weather
There are several market headwinds that warrant attention, as well as a tailwind that may be large enough to keep the boat moving forward. Fully understanding the headwinds and tailwinds will help you better monitor the market barometer, allowing you to assess and adjust risk levels with more awareness going forward.
Big Tech Needs to Justify AI Spending as Investors Dump Stocks
After last week’s wipeout in chips and the broader selloff in technology stocks, pressure is building for the biggest spenders on artificial intelligence to justify their expenditures to beleaguered traders with increasingly itchy fingers hovering over their sell buttons.
US Stocks Rebound From Selloff as Nvidia, Other Chipmakers Rise
US stocks advanced on Monday, paring last week’s slump, as chipmakers rebounded amid a deluge of earnings reports that will test whether Big Tech’s profits can match high expectations.
Why Retail Traders Consistently Underperform Over Time
Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never been more inviting. The losses have never been more documented. Here are some key statistics we will dive into further.
Schwab Market Perspective
It seems to be the end of the Great Moderation Era for the U.S. economy. The Great Moderation Era—which marked most of the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic—is drifting away into what we call the new Temperamental Era.
The Biggest Risk for Stock Investors (And How to Avoid It)
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and known as "Mr. Valuation," explains why overpaying for a stock is often the greatest threat to long-term investment success. Using over 30 real-world examples, Chuck demonstrates how even outstanding companies can deliver poor returns when investors buy them at excessive valuations.
Q2 2026 Equity Markets
So far in 2026, we’ve seen that benchmark index returns can obscure important market dynamics. Even during a historically strong quarter, underlying dispersion created meaningful opportunities for tax-loss harvesting in custom equity portfolios.
Staying Nimble and Focused on Income as Uncertainty Persists
The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation. Franklin Income Investors Chief Investment Officer Ed Perks discusses how markets have evolved, where opportunities are emerging, and why diversification remains critical heading into the second half of the year.
The Evolving Nature of Equity Quality in the Age of AI
Investors must determine what the AI capital-spending surge means for long-term business durability.
The Most Expensive Financial Decisions Physicians Make (And They Aren’t Investment Decisions)
For physicians, major financial decisions may rarely affect just one area of their financial life. The real potential risk is failing to understand how those decisions impact everything else.
Korea ETF’s Record Inflow Fuels SK Hynix Proxy Play
A record inflow hit the largest US-listed South Korea exchange-traded fund, as investors seeking exposure to SK Hynix Inc. piled into the ETF as a proxy at a time when the chipmaker’s new American depositary receipts trade at a substantial premium to its local shares.
Dividends Carry the Day With This Small-Cap ETF
Entering Wednesday, the Russell 2000 and S&P SmallCap 600 indexes were up an average of 20.8% year-to-date, confirming small-cap stocks are back with a vengeance. Arguably overlooked in that scenario, some vibrant ETFs represent higher-quality approaches to smaller stocks.
Is America Energy Rich, Power Poor?
A country drowning in energy shouldn't also feel like it's running out of electricity. In other words: before we ask whether America can make more things again, we should probably ask whether America can power the production.
Leveraging Memory: Direxion Premiers Daily SK Hynix Bull 2X ETF
On July 15, Direxion launched the Direxion Daily SK Hynix Bull 2X ETF (SKHL), seeking to replicate double the daily performance of the South Korean semiconductor manufacturers Sk Hynix (SKHY). The fund provides leveraged exposure to the world’s leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory chips. It boasts an expense ratio of 97 basis points.
Now More than Ever: The Case for Global Bonds
As the forces shaping bond markets become more local, the opportunities become more global. From energy stress to fiscal policy to advances in AI, today’s defining market forces are likely to play out differently across regions, sectors and issuers.
Why July is the Perfect Time for Proactive Tax Planning
For many investors and families, tax planning may become a year-end exercise squeezed into November and December. But by the time the calendar turns to the fourth quarter, many of the most effective opportunities are already limited.
Before You Implement Tax-Aware Long-Short: Five Things Every Advisor Should Know
Tax-aware long-short strategies are no longer the exclusive domain of institutional investors. As separate account delivery has expanded access, more advisors are asking whether tax-aware long-short belongs in their clients’ portfolios. Here are five practical considerations to help you decide.
Getting Serious in Summer Markets
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
Building Permits Fall 3.0% in June
Building permits fell 3.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.367 million. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.400 million.
Housing Starts Jump 19% in June
Housing starts jumped 19.0% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, beating forecasts driven by a massive surge in multi-family units.
Fed Policymaker Comments Raise the Stakes for Inflation Data
Our baseline outlook still sees the Fed on hold through 2026 amid gradually easing price pressures. But Waller’s comments suggest that after a string of firmer Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation prints, the Fed now places greater emphasis on responding if inflation surprises sharply to the upside or proves more persistent than expected, regardless of which factors are driving the inflation. And this raises the stakes for incoming inflation data throughout the year.
Another Shock, Another Recovery
Midyear is a useful moment in investing—not because it tells us where we are going, but because it offers a clearer view of how little we truly knew at the start. Six months is often enough time for confident forecasts to meet reality, for consensus narratives to fray, and for the distinction between what sounded plausible and what proved durable to come into focus.
Gold's Next Move Hinges on One Thing
Gold and silver traded in a volatile fashion over the past several days as investors weighed conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve, economic data, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Metals in Motion: Sprott Outlines New Era of Critical Minerals
The rules governing global commodity markets are starting to witness a profound shift, which is putting critical minerals at the forefront of policy. On a recent episode of ETF Guide’s Metals in Motion, Justin Tolman, Senior Portfolio Manager and Economic Geologist at Sprott Asset Management, discussed this dynamic.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.22% month-over-month and up 6.72% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.15% year-over-year.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Pull Down Builder Sentiment
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.
Pending Home Sales Sink 5% in June
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps to Highest Level Since 2021
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity expanded significantly in July, with the index jumping 31.1 points to 41.4. This marks the highest level for the index since November 2021 and was more than triple the forecast of 12.7.
Retail Sales Rise for Fifth Straight Month
U.S. headline retail sales increased for a fifth straight month, rising 0.2% to $768.6B in June, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.2%.
Expanding Global Opportunities
This paper presents the case for emerging market (EM) allocations within the broader context of global investment strategy. In a period of heightened geopolitical complexity—spanning the 2026 US-Iran conflict, challenges to globalization, political transformation and ongoing great power competition—we believe the case for engaged emerging markets exposure has never been stronger.
SaaSpocalypse Part II? IBM’s Preliminary Earnings Report Rattles Software
The Q2 earnings season is off to a rollercoaster start. The big banks collectively reported strong numbers, boosted by active capital markets and another impressive set of sales & trading revenue. And it was the usual chorus of bank CEO macro commentary:
Scouring For Non-Tech Sectors
In June we pointed out that Health Care looks cheap. Even though it has been rallying hard of late, the sector continues to trade at a 59% price-to-sales discount to the S&P 500, despite having an 18% return on equity (ROE) that is just a hair below the 19% ROE accorded the S&P 500.
Q3 Strategic Income Outlook: Perception Is Reality
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
From First-Quarter Fear to Renewed Optimism
After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.
Corporate Bond Market Insight - Resilient Growth Meets Rising Inflation
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Unexpectedly Falls in June
The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced its largest decline in over a year in June, with wholesale inflation dropping 0.3%.
Meta’s $250 Billion July Leap Shows Traders Believe Its AI Plans
In the span of just two weeks, Meta Platforms Inc. has gone from a market afterthought to one of its hottest stocks, as investors finally like what Facebook’s parent is saying about its artificial intelligence plans.
Mountain, Cliff, or Ocean
The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 500 has a material risk of losing something on the order of 75% over the completion of this cycle.
A Year-Round Opportunity
The first half of 2026 reinforced an important lesson for fixed income investors: Tax-loss harvesting opportunities don’t always arrive at year-end, often appearing during short periods of market dislocation when interest rates rise, new-issue supply increases or investor sentiment shifts.
Broken Iran Ceasefire Can’t Hold Back Equities
The tech-heavy NASDAQ benefited from a semiconductor rebound and renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure names. The Dow, weighted more toward “old economy” stocks than high-growth names, captured none of last week’s gains.
Keep Calm and Clip Coupons
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.