According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
The latest new orders number at -0.9% month-over-month (MoM) was slightly worse than the Investing.com -0.5% estimate. The series is up 12.7% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.4% MoM and up 11.9% YoY.
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Investors have been taking refuge from the Chinese real estate debt crisis in pockets of the broader Asian credit market, and cite India among opportunities that are relatively insulated from the historic turmoil.
During retirement, deciding how much to withdraw each year from investments can be complicated when both the length of retirement and returns on assets are not known. Unknown longevity presents a tradeoff in which a retiree can either spend generously and risk outliving savings — or spend conservatively and live a less enjoyable retirement. But it is possible to know an outcome before investing. Consider Buffer ETFs™ and other Defined outcome ETFs™ that use options strategies to shape a return
In our 2022 Volume Analysis Outlook, the S&P 500 was fresh off new highs exceeding 4800.
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
As of January 24, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cent(s) each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.63 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.31 and is down 1.8% from last week.
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +12.3% (+29.2 billion vehicle miles) for November 2021 as compared with November 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.92% month-over-month and up 9.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.88% month-over-month and up 9.1% year-over-year.
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
The world’s largest digital asset is mired in its sixth straight day of declines, with the token down roughly 20% over the past seven days. It’s now 50% below its November peak and was trading as low as $32,970 on Monday, the lowest since July.
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
In 2012, an SEC director declared that conflicts kill objective investment advice. But this is no longer true, according to new guidance from the CFP Board.
Is the failure of the value factor over the last decade due to the inability of book value to incorporate so-called “intangible assets,” such as the intellectual property that has propelled companies like Amazon, Alphabet and Apple? New research provides the answer.
Laurence Kotlikoff is a world-class economist who can convince you to pay off your mortgage and make you snort out your nose laughing at the same time; Money Magic is his compendium of life hacks aimed at leaving the reader wealthier and happier.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.2, up 7.8 from last month's 15.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 25.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 28.7, up 9.7 from the previous month's 19.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims, down 30K from the previous week's figure, was at the Investing.com forecast.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.702M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.650M and a 1.4% increase from the previous month's 1.678M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.873M was up 9.09% from the November reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.702M.
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
It is not a matter of if the markets will correct but a matter of when. That is why I set the stage for corrections during my client meetings, by sharing what I plan to do when we have one.
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
If we will experience a lower equity risk premium, how much lower of a premium will make stock investing unattractive relative to bonds?
Impact investing seeks to achieve social good, but new research shows that it has had a negligible effect on the cost of capital for so-called “brown” companies.
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
We think risk assets can offer opportunity in 2022 as long as investors can stomach potential volatility.
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 199K.
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
2021 is now in the rear-view mirror and I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
One of cryptocurrencies' biggest selling points is that they allow people to break away from traditional banking systems. Now banks are hoping to convince you otherwise.
Bitcoin climbed above $44,000 for the first time in a week as the most U.S. inflation in four decades revives the debate about whether the cryptocurrency is a hedge against rising consumer prices.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Monetary policy has driven U.S. stock prices to excessive valuations, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But they remain cheap relative to bonds.
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.
January market trends historically set the direction for the full year per his title “As January Goes”. Well, so far, not so good!
The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,551 for an annualized real return of 14.49%.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
The opening ceremony for the Winter Olympics is just four weeks away, but the athletes have spent years training to ultimately experience either the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
Contemplating a new year ahead, you may be wondering…what is going to happen?
What has been a tumultuous last few months for crypto markets has only accelerated through the turn of the New Year.
One of WisdomTree’s flagship value Funds made some notable changes at the start of the new year.
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
New research shows that some funds that use a factor-based construction process may have over- or under-exposure to industries, sectors, countries and other attributes relative to a market-cap-weighted index.
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
Loomis Sayles' high yield sector team share their views on rising rates, CCC-rated bonds and where they're seeing potential opportunity in 2022.
Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.
India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.
I don’t know which of the three Fed Bears will show up in 2022, but all three are plausible enough that investors should diversify so none can cause fatal financial damage.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.
As soon as an asset owner allocates capital to more than one manager, an interaction effect exists which will have an impact on the investor’s overall portfolio outcome.
In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman explains why China’s 2022 investment environment will be defined by two competing weather patterns.
Gold rebounded as the dollar pared gains and a U.S. manufacturing gauge fell short of economists’ expectations.
Small cap growth stocks lagged for most of 2021 as the market simultaneously dealt with the pandemic, inflation, and tightening Fed policy. Given these challenges, we have been focusing on high quality companies trading at attractive valuations, and we have also been looking at non-technology businesses that are embracing digitization.
As of December 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 100 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Equities have enjoyed strong gains since the pandemic low of 2020, aided by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, excess consumer savings, and incredibly negative real policy rates and bond yields.
Global equities surged in 2021 during a year full of surprises.
Sales of U.S. leveraged loans are likely to stay strong for at least the next few months thanks to private equity buyout activity that is showing few signs of abating.
To all the record highs, the months without a correction and every other death-defying feat the stock market has pulled off, add another superlative. The S&P 500 Index has now doubled since New Year’s 2018, capping a stretch of sustained strength with few precedents.
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
The year ended on a high note for the Dow and S&P 500 despite economic challenges posed by the coronavirus and extreme weather events.
Buffer ETFs
Grow Your Clients’ Wealth With Private Real Estate
According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
Fed’s Message: Get Ready
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
Inflation Will Hurt Both Stocks and Bonds
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
The Crypto Crash Strengthens the Case for Crypto
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Value Stocks, U.S. Dollar Among Top Trades After Hawkish Fed
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
Headline Durable Goods Orders Down 0/9% in December
The latest new orders number at -0.9% month-over-month (MoM) was slightly worse than the Investing.com -0.5% estimate. The series is up 12.7% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.4% MoM and up 11.9% YoY.
Planning for ’22 with Lessons from ‘21
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Investment Strategy Commentary: Market Pullback
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Precautionary Stockpiling and Its Impact on Growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
2022 Investment Grade Credit Outlook: Views on Risk Appetite, Rising Stars and Trends
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Where Investors Fleeing Chinese Property Are Putting Their Money
Investors have been taking refuge from the Chinese real estate debt crisis in pockets of the broader Asian credit market, and cite India among opportunities that are relatively insulated from the historic turmoil.
Buffered Equities and the Risks Facing Retirees
During retirement, deciding how much to withdraw each year from investments can be complicated when both the length of retirement and returns on assets are not known. Unknown longevity presents a tradeoff in which a retiree can either spend generously and risk outliving savings — or spend conservatively and live a less enjoyable retirement. But it is possible to know an outcome before investing. Consider Buffer ETFs™ and other Defined outcome ETFs™ that use options strategies to shape a return
Volume Analysis Flash Update – Back to Support
In our 2022 Volume Analysis Outlook, the S&P 500 was fresh off new highs exceeding 4800.
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
Consumer Confidence Fell in January
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Down 1.8%
As of January 24, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cent(s) each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.63 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.31 and is down 1.8% from last week.
America's Driving Habits as of November 2021
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +12.3% (+29.2 billion vehicle miles) for November 2021 as compared with November 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.92% month-over-month and up 9.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.88% month-over-month and up 9.1% year-over-year.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in December"
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
Worried Traders Make Dash for Stock Liquidity as Selloff Worsens
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
Bitcoin’s New Floor Is $30,000 as 50% Rout Destroys Old Supports
The world’s largest digital asset is mired in its sixth straight day of declines, with the token down roughly 20% over the past seven days. It’s now 50% below its November peak and was trading as low as $32,970 on Monday, the lowest since July.
Will the Fed Choose Financial Instability or Inflation?
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
The CFP Board to Planners: Conflicts are Dead
In 2012, an SEC director declared that conflicts kill objective investment advice. But this is no longer true, according to new guidance from the CFP Board.
Do Intangible Assets Explain the Failure of the Value Factor?
Is the failure of the value factor over the last decade due to the inability of book value to incorporate so-called “intangible assets,” such as the intellectual property that has propelled companies like Amazon, Alphabet and Apple? New research provides the answer.
An Economist Looks at School, Marriage, Divorce, and Moving in with Your Mom
Laurence Kotlikoff is a world-class economist who can convince you to pay off your mortgage and make you snort out your nose laughing at the same time; Money Magic is his compendium of life hacks aimed at leaving the reader wealthier and happier.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
2022 Municipal Bond Outlook: Views on Rates, Fundamentals and Infrastructure
The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Growth Continues
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.2, up 7.8 from last month's 15.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 25.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 28.7, up 9.7 from the previous month's 19.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 30K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims, down 30K from the previous week's figure, was at the Investing.com forecast.
New Residential Housing Starts Up 1.4% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.702M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.650M and a 1.4% increase from the previous month's 1.678M.
New Residential Building Permits: Up 9.1% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.873M was up 9.09% from the November reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.702M.
2022 Global Credit Outlook: Views on Growth, the ECB and ESG Investing
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Deep Analytic Market Insights for 2021
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Live by the Returns, Die by the Returns
It is not a matter of if the markets will correct but a matter of when. That is why I set the stage for corrections during my client meetings, by sharing what I plan to do when we have one.
“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.
2022 Investment Outlook (Part 2) – Stocks and Bonds
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
Is It Still Worth Investing in Stocks?
If we will experience a lower equity risk premium, how much lower of a premium will make stock investing unattractive relative to bonds?
The Dubious Financial Impact of Impact Investing
Impact investing seeks to achieve social good, but new research shows that it has had a negligible effect on the cost of capital for so-called “brown” companies.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Down 2.4%
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
Loomis Sayles' Investment Outlook January 2022
We think risk assets can offer opportunity in 2022 as long as investors can stomach potential volatility.
Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
Retail Sales Down 1.9% in December, Up 16.9% YoY
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.
Q4 2021: “Tracking the Recovery: Inflationary Pressure a Symptom Not the Cause”
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
U.S. Workforce: December 2021 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 199K.
Market Cap to GDP: December Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.
December Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
The Year Of Living Dangerously
2021 is now in the rear-view mirror and I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
Banks Are an Odd Place to Keep Your Crypto
One of cryptocurrencies' biggest selling points is that they allow people to break away from traditional banking systems. Now banks are hoping to convince you otherwise.
Bitcoin Climbs After Inflation Jump Rekindles Hedging Debate
Bitcoin climbed above $44,000 for the first time in a week as the most U.S. inflation in four decades revives the debate about whether the cryptocurrency is a hedge against rising consumer prices.
Components of the CPI: December 2021
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Fed’s Policy Tightening Plan: A One-Two Punch
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Gundlach’s 2022 Forecast: Equities are Expensive but Cheap Relative to Bonds
Monetary policy has driven U.S. stock prices to excessive valuations, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But they remain cheap relative to bonds.
Four Mega-Trends Shaping the 2022 Outlook and Beyond
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Investing in a Fast‑Moving Cycle
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
We Can Work It Out: Update on Labor Market
“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.
As January Goes
January market trends historically set the direction for the full year per his title “As January Goes”. Well, so far, not so good!
NFIB Small Business Survey: Up Slightly in December
The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,551 for an annualized real return of 14.49%.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Weekly Investment Strategy
The opening ceremony for the Winter Olympics is just four weeks away, but the athletes have spent years training to ultimately experience either the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
Volume Analysis January 2022
Contemplating a new year ahead, you may be wondering…what is going to happen?
Crypto Market Outlook: A Potential Bounce May Be Imminent
What has been a tumultuous last few months for crypto markets has only accelerated through the turn of the New Year.
The New Year Reset: The WisdomTree U.S. Value Fund
One of WisdomTree’s flagship value Funds made some notable changes at the start of the new year.
The 2022 Outlook Part 1 - Tailwinds Shift to Headwinds
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
The Unintended Consequences of Factor-Based Investing
New research shows that some funds that use a factor-based construction process may have over- or under-exposure to industries, sectors, countries and other attributes relative to a market-cap-weighted index.
Commodities Notched Their Best Year Since 2009, Despite Precious Metals Weakness
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Euro Markets Will Stand Out in 2022
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
K2 Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: First Quarter 2022
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
2022 High Yield Credit Outlook: Views on Policy, Ratings and Opportunity
Loomis Sayles' high yield sector team share their views on rising rates, CCC-rated bonds and where they're seeing potential opportunity in 2022.
To Infinity and Beyond – and the Usual New Year Review Stuff
Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.
The Great Gold Love Trade Is Alive And Well, As India Buys A Record Amount
India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.
The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
Growth Cycle Outlook: 2022 Will Not be 2021
Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.
Can Your Portfolio Outsmart the Three Fed Bears?
I don’t know which of the three Fed Bears will show up in 2022, but all three are plausible enough that investors should diversify so none can cause fatal financial damage.
November Trade Deficit at $80.2B, Worse Than Forecast
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.
Repurposing a Passive Allocation With a Completion Portfolio
As soon as an asset owner allocates capital to more than one manager, an interaction effect exists which will have an impact on the investor’s overall portfolio outcome.
China 2022: Competing Weather Patterns
In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman explains why China’s 2022 investment environment will be defined by two competing weather patterns.
Spot Gold Rises as Dollar Erases Gains, U.S. Factory Gauge Slips
Gold rebounded as the dollar pared gains and a U.S. manufacturing gauge fell short of economists’ expectations.
In Search of Upside: Finding Opportunities in Small Cap Growth
Small cap growth stocks lagged for most of 2021 as the market simultaneously dealt with the pandemic, inflation, and tightening Fed policy. Given these challenges, we have been focusing on high quality companies trading at attractive valuations, and we have also been looking at non-technology businesses that are embracing digitization.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of December 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 100 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
10 Predictions for 2022
Equities have enjoyed strong gains since the pandemic low of 2020, aided by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, excess consumer savings, and incredibly negative real policy rates and bond yields.
Equity Outlook: Get Ready for Another Year of Surprises
Global equities surged in 2021 during a year full of surprises.
Leveraged Buyout Boom Is Seen Flooding Loan Markets for Months
Sales of U.S. leveraged loans are likely to stay strong for at least the next few months thanks to private equity buyout activity that is showing few signs of abating.
Three Monster Years for the S&P 500 Set a Towering Bar for January
To all the record highs, the months without a correction and every other death-defying feat the stock market has pulled off, add another superlative. The S&P 500 Index has now doubled since New Year’s 2018, capping a stretch of sustained strength with few precedents.
2022 International Bonds Outlook: Neutral, for Now
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
S&P 500 outpaces COVID-19 woes, soars more than 25% in 2021
The year ended on a high note for the Dow and S&P 500 despite economic challenges posed by the coronavirus and extreme weather events.