Fixed-income investors concerned about tariffs and US exceptionalism may find opportunities in hedged global bonds.
At Parametric, our years of experience have taught us that markets can swing up and down quickly and without warning. Since no one can time these swings, we believe it's imperative to seek both loss harvesting and benchmark tracking simultaneously.
US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year.
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million in May, the lowest level in nearly five years.
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
The fund shines through as a prime option worthy of consideration among the vast alternatives present in the muni market. With their rare combination of credit quality and yield, munis are offering fixed income investors prime benefits in a still-uncertain bond environment.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
A growing body of evidence suggests the differences between private and public equity may be more a matter of perception than reality.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
Rampant uncertainty and ongoing market volatility in 2025 have done little to dampen the ETF industry, with innovative launches ongoing.
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Wall Street analyst outlooks are typically bullish. If you aggregate every price target on every S&P 500 Index company and weight them to match the index, it’s exceedingly rare for the overall number to fall.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t.
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Retail traders using sophisticated quantitative strategies are starting to have a surprising and noticeable impact on financial prices.
Systematic fixed-income investing is attracting increased attention but needs specialist skills and resources. Would your manager have what it takes?
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Buffer ETFs
More Income, Less Volatility? The Case for Going Global
Fixed-income investors concerned about tariffs and US exceptionalism may find opportunities in hedged global bonds.
Lessons Learned: Potential Pitfalls of Loss Harvesting During High Volatility
At Parametric, our years of experience have taught us that markets can swing up and down quickly and without warning. Since no one can time these swings, we believe it's imperative to seek both loss harvesting and benchmark tracking simultaneously.
US Stocks Gain as Fed’s Waller Offers Hope on July Rate Cut
US stocks rose on Friday as investors returned from the Juneteenth holiday break to evaluate recent comments from a top Federal Reserve official as well as the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
Alpha Reimagined
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
Macro Drivers: Positioning for 2025’s Geopolitical Realignment
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
5 Themes Defining Bond ETF Investing Today
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The Case for Going Global Now
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
Buying a Bond at a Premium Doesn’t Mean You Will Lose Money
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Big Expectations and Big Uncertainty for Equities
Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year.
Dog Days Ahead
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
US Stocks Rise as Investors Await Federal Reserve Rate Decision
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
M&A Watch: A String of Hot IPOs Could Spark Second-Half Dealmaking
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
Housing Starts Fall to 5-Year Low in May
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
Building Permits Hit Lowest Level in Five Years
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million in May, the lowest level in nearly five years.
Crypto Index ETFs, Explained for Financial Professionals
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
As Japanese Companies Change, Investment Opportunities Bloom
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
Hold Onto Your Gold
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
How Can “Smart Beta” Go Horribly Right?
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Gas Prices Rise for First Time in Four Weeks
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
As Munis See Increased Issuance, Here’s an Active Choice
The fund shines through as a prime option worthy of consideration among the vast alternatives present in the muni market. With their rare combination of credit quality and yield, munis are offering fixed income investors prime benefits in a still-uncertain bond environment.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
Public Equity May Resemble Private Equity More Than Investors Realize
A growing body of evidence suggests the differences between private and public equity may be more a matter of perception than reality.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Muted Market Response to Iran Attacks
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
Traders Hold Their Nerve to Ride Bumpy Emerging-Market Rally
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Edges Up While Sentiment Rebounds
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Blackstone Taps Ex-Lazard Top Dealmaker, Aims to Back More Banks
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
3 New ETFs That Reflect Emerging 2025 Market Trends
Rampant uncertainty and ongoing market volatility in 2025 have done little to dampen the ETF industry, with innovative launches ongoing.
The Investment Signal in the Noise
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Schwab Market Perspective: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
Building Steady Streams: Dividend ETFs in Focus
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: The Japan Problem
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Options Signal EM Firms’ Outperformance Could Fade: Taking Stock
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Japan’s Corporate Reforms Create a Catalyst for Equity Returns
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
What Is the Debt Ceiling and Why Does It Matter?
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Equity Analysts Are Over Liberation Day Tariffs
Wall Street analyst outlooks are typically bullish. If you aggregate every price target on every S&P 500 Index company and weight them to match the index, it’s exceedingly rare for the overall number to fall.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Strategic vs. Tactical
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Notes from the Desk: MBS Opportunities Amid Quiet Housing Market
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
“Buying The Dip” – Here’s A Technical Way To Do It
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Wary Wall Street Positioning Leaves Room for S&P 500 to Rally
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
A College Degree is no Longer a Risk-Free Investment
My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t.
Implementation Matters. Is Your OCIO Built to Execute?
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Credit Investors Embrace Portfolio Trades as ETF Grip Eases
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Momentum ETFs Regaining Mojo
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
Stocks Bloom In May
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Stablecoins to the Treasury’s Rescue
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries Win Some Respite as Key 30-Year Auction Looms
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Retail Quants May Be the Next Stabilizing Force for Markets
Retail traders using sophisticated quantitative strategies are starting to have a surprising and noticeable impact on financial prices.
Seven Questions Before Hiring a Systematic Fixed-Income Manager
Systematic fixed-income investing is attracting increased attention but needs specialist skills and resources. Would your manager have what it takes?
Investing Expeditions: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook: A High(er) for Long(er) Gold Price Regime
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2025
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
A Roundup of the Most Innovative ETFs Launched in May
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: May Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.