Markets are always changing — and sometimes the rules of finance do, too. I believe markets are efficient, which means my investment portfolio is pretty much all index funds. My enthusiasm for indexing is based on evidence from the Before Times, when the question of a corporation’s index-worthiness was straightforward.
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Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary?
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
The Quiet Boom in Autocallable ETFs
GraniteShares and VettaFi are coming together for a state-of-the-category briefing: the flow data behind the surge, the structural reasons advisors are making room in income sleeves, how the category has held up across different rate and volatility regimes, and the diligence questions worth asking before adding it to a model.
AI Trade’s Bruising Week Forces Investors to Be More Selective
This roller-coaster week for tech stocks from Seoul to New York fueled by extreme investor positioning and worries over chip demand is sending a strong signal: the case for the artificial-intelligence trade is still strong, but the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over.
Bond Traders Stunned as Losses on SpaceX’s New Debt Keep Growing
SpaceX’s blockbuster bond sale is weakening so quickly in the secondary market that traders say they can’t recall another recent deal that widened this sharply.
Bitcoin Bottom Hunters Fear Fresh Pain After $1.3 Trillion Rout
Bitcoin’s collapse is forcing crypto veterans to confront the question every bear market eventually asks: when does mass panic create a buying opportunity? The answer, according to many of the investors and analysts who have lived through previous boom-and-bust cycles, is: not yet.
Private Credit, Explained
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
Global Bond Diversification: Higher Yields and New Opportunities for Alpha
In a world of high starting yields and rupturing economic alliances, investors who actively diversify across regions, sectors, and currencies can be better positioned to pursue durable returns.
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
AI Is a Secular Growth Unicorn
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
A ‘Warsh’ Out at the Fed
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already reshaping policy communication by reducing forward guidance, questioning the dot plot’s future and emphasizing real-time data, potentially increasing Treasury market volatility.
The Federal Reserve’s New Leader Lays Out His Agenda
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, led his first committee meeting in June. The decision to leave short-term interest rates unchanged didn’t surprise anybody, but there was plenty for markets to chew on. Warsh seems likely to make structural changes that may not impact near-term monetary policy but could matter much more to the US economy over the long run.
More Moving Parts Than Usual: A Mid-2026 Market Perspective
Halfway through 2026, this market perspective is harder to write with confidence than most. That’s not a phrase I use lightly. Over four decades of markets, there have been plenty of uncertain moments, but the number of significant, unresolved issues I’m watching right now is unusually high.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Decreased in May
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.10 in May from +0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three categories made negative contributions.
Durable Goods Orders Sink 4.5% in May, Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
Initial Unemployment Claims Down 12K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 20th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 215,000. This represents a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 225,000.
Warsh’s Pivot Risks Confusing the Market and the Fed
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is changing how the central bank conducts monetary policy. A fresh look is appropriate, especially given the Fed’s failure to achieve its 2% inflation objective for more than five years. But this needs to be done with greater care than Warsh has shown to date.
Gold, Fort Knox, and the Dollar’s Future
According to Gleason, the freezing of Russian assets following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the global push toward de-dollarization. Nations around the world took notice that access to the dollar-based financial system could be restricted, increasing the appeal of gold as a reserve asset that cannot be frozen or sanctioned by foreign governments.
Will Greater Monetary Policy Uncertainty Lead to Tighter Financial Conditions?
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
Summer Seasonal Technicals in Municipal Bonds: A Reliable Tailwind?
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
The Rise of Total Portfolio Investing
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
This Elevated International ETF Looks Compelling Right Now
The international ETF landscape has become quite popular with investors over the last year. Investors flocked to ex-U.S. equity opportunities over the last 12 months, driven by high domestic valuations and persistent concentration risk. By contrast, emerging and international markets have both offered lower costs and healthy diversification.
Managing Family Reputation Capital in a Digital-First World
In a digital-first environment, reputation is no longer a byproduct of success; it is an asset class in its own right. For ultra-high-net-worth families, reputation capital can influence investment opportunities, business partnerships, philanthropic impact, and multigenerational legacy. It can also be exposed, amplified, or undermined in real time.
Value Stocks: The Cash-Flow Case for a Continuing Comeback
It’s easy to understand why investors are skeptical about value stocks. After nearly two decades of chronic weakness, value’s strong rebound since early 2025 hasn’t offered enough proof that the turnaround has staying power.
Tech Stocks Lead Bounce After $1.3 Trillion Rout on Nasdaq 100
US technology stocks rebounded, lifting key indexes, after the latest flareup of concerns about the scale of the artificial-intelligence-fueled rally wiped nearly $1.3 trillion from the market capitalization of Nasdaq 100 companies over the first two days of the week.
Stocks Are Expensive. But Don’t Panic
When investors feel like the stock market is toppy, as many do now, they often compare what they expect stocks and bonds to pay. The yield on stocks should offer a premium over bonds to compensate for higher risk, and it usually does.
Iran Peace Deal Leads Equities Higher
Equities rallied after President Trump announced an agreement with Iran to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the holiday-shortened week with solid gains, led by the technology sector.
Greenspan’s Stumbles Hold Lessons for Warsh’s Fed
Alan Greenspan, the titan of global central banking who led the Federal Reserve during decades of prosperity, has died at 100, just when elements of his free-market philosophy are experiencing a renaissance.
The Federal Reserve’s New Leader Lays Out His Agenda
Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, led his first committee meeting in June. The decision to leave short-term interest rates unchanged didn’t surprise anybody, but there was plenty for markets to chew on.
North America’s Trade Test
The ongoing World Cup showcases three countries working together. The USMCA review will reveal whether that cooperation extends beyond sport. A shared platform can continue to deliver strong outcomes, but only if the rules remain clear, stable and broadly accepted.
U.S. Debt, Interest Rates, and the Opportunity in High-Quality Bonds
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
Beyond AI: Where Investors Can Still Find Dividend Growth in 2026
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
Gas Prices Back Below $4
Gas prices fell for a sixth straight week, reaching their lowest level in three months. As of June 22nd, weekly prices were down 14 cents for regular and down 15 cents for premium gasoline.
The Bond Market’s Skepticism of Burnham Is a Warning
All of this is a warning to other developed markets with debt levels on the verge of exceeding their gross domestic product. Following the Truss chaos of four years ago, the market has decided to approach the UK through a lens of always assuming the worst, a default that continues to cost British taxpayers in the form of higher interest rates.
Why It’s Time for Advisors to Add the Actuarial Approach — & Copilot — to Their Retirement Toolkit
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.
A Quarter Century of Data Says the Airline Opportunity Could Just Be Getting Started
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Truce In The Middle East
The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.
A New Market Calls for Fresh Investing Strategies
As geopolitical factors increasingly impact returns in a changing market, active portfolio management will become an increasingly necessary approach for advisors seeking to navigate uncertainty and deliver consistent results.
Rethinking the Default: Are Secondary Funds Still the Right Choice?
For much of the past decade, secondary funds served as the default entry point into private equity for a number of wealth managers, registered investment advisors, and institutional allocators. These investment vehicles allowed investors to acquire exposure to a private equity fund by purchasing the interest of one of its existing primary investors.
The Case for US Industrial Development
The convergence of long-term structural drivers and emerging cyclical tailwinds suggests the industrial sector may be approaching an inflection point, with conditions increasingly supportive of new development.
Sharpe Is Back in Emerging Markets
Emerging market (EM) fixed income's risk-adjusted profile has meaningfully improved. Sharpe ratios across EM credit and local rates have rebounded, with EM credit delivering one of the strongest risk-adjusted performances in fixed income over the past two years.
AI Downsides Dominate Discourse
At graduation ceremonies, audiences are often reminded to limit their audible reactions and hold applause, so that all graduates’ names can be heard. But a few viral videos this year showed a new disturbance to be managed: graduating students booing speakers if they extolled the virtues of artificial intelligence (AI).
Weekly Economic Snapshot: A Hawkish Hold in a High-Stakes Market
As the summer economic landscape takes shape, investors are navigating shifting monetary policy, stubborn inflation pressures, and unexpected market momentum. This week’s snapshot breaks down the most critical updates and data releases from the past week to give you a clear view of where the economy is heading.
The Warsh Fed—Return to Orthodoxy
Kevin Warsh came out as a hawk during his first press conference as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that he may be the most hawkish chair since Paul Volcker. Warsh stressed that the Fed can and will bring inflation back to 2%, and signaled his preference for a smaller balance sheet and no forward guidance—a welcome return to more orthodox monetary policy.
U.S.-Australia Agreement Underscores Importance of Rare Earths
Exposure to critical minerals, specifically rare earths, provides an opportunity for investors to capitalize on growth and diversify their portfolios simultaneously. However, there are also geopolitical implications that investors should know about as well. In particular, more nations are reducing their reliance on China.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
MassMutual on Strategies for Maximizing Retirement Income
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
Are We All Active Investors Now?
Markets are always changing — and sometimes the rules of finance do, too. I believe markets are efficient, which means my investment portfolio is pretty much all index funds. My enthusiasm for indexing is based on evidence from the Before Times, when the question of a corporation’s index-worthiness was straightforward.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounded in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity rebounded in June, with the index rising 10.7 points to 10.3. The latest reading marks the fifth positive reading in the past six months and was better than the forecast of 9.8.
Goldman Sees More Two-Year Volatility, Calmer Long End on Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s remarks after the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under his chairmanship will probably spark more volatility at the shorter end of the Treasury curve while calming price swings at the long end, according to Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Low Chinese Demand for Foreign Oil Keeping Prices Low
One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.
Hawkish-Leaning Committee, Reform-Minded Chair: Warsh’s First Fed Meeting
The Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting – an outcome that was never really in doubt. The more interesting signals came from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the policy statement, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, which may prove to be his most substantial.
SpaceX Stole the Show, but These Market-Moving Events Could Drive Stocks Next
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
Why We’re Staying at the Tech Party…and What Would Make Us Leave
The questions in our inbox have gotten louder lately. Are we reliving 1999? Has the tech rally reached the dangerous ‘Euphoria’ bubble stage we first discussed in our 2026 Outlook? And is the recent surge in initial public offerings (IPOs)— led by SpaceX on Friday— diluting existing holders just as valuations were already drawing scrutiny?
Tech Stock Climax
In my 45 years in the investment business, we’ve observed numerous peaks of excitement. In 1987, a bull market that started at a 1982 bottom below 800 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) peaked at 2,722. It then crashed 43% in 78 days.
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
The Closest Thing to Guaranteed investing Success
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Fed Watch: The Changing of the Guard Finally Arrives
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to remain ‘on hold’, keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%-3.75%. This result was largely expected by the markets. Of course, one of the more notable aspects to this gathering was that it represented Kevin Warsh’s first official policy meeting as Fed Chairman.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.
Retail Sales: Consumer Spending Up for Fourth Straight Month
According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the fourth straight month in May. Headline sales rose 0.9%, almost double the projected 0.5% growth and marking an acceleration from April's 0.4% rise.
Compliance Without an AI Blind Spot
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
Pending Home Sales Jump to 6-Month High
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
SpaceX Extends Gains Into Fourth Day as Post-IPO Rally Hits 58%
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
Warsh Has Potential to Spur Market Volatility, Fidelity Says
Investors from Fidelity say new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stands to stoke bond-market volatility by offering his views on inflation.
Bull Market Pullback: Why The 4.5% Dip Held The 50-DMA
The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet.
Welcome, Chair Warsh
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week in what will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Trump has been vocal about wanting to see lower yields and general consensus is that Warsh was his pick due to Warsh’s general lean towards lower rates.
Alternative Allocations: The Convergence of Public and Private Equity
On June 12, SpaceX went public with a US$2 trillion valuation—the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, by far. It has been the most anticipated IPO in more than two decades and likely ushers in a series of high-profile IPOs in the coming months, including for OpenAI and Anthropic.
Peace Prospects, Inflation Pressures, and SpaceX’s Historic IPO Drive Markets
The Iran conflict, inflation reports, and the largest initial public offering of all time each took its turn in the spotlight last week. The fragile ceasefire with Iran looked ready to collapse after Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter, and the U.S. retaliated with strikes on Iran.
Building Permits Inch Down 0.7% in May, Lower Than Expected
Building permits inched down 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million in May. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.420 million.
Housing Starts Sink to 6-Year Low
Housing starts sank 15.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, the lowest level in six years. The latest reading was significantly lower than the projected 1.430 million.
Marvell Needs Lots of Growth to Achieve Huang’s $1 Trillion Call
Jensen Huang may see Marvell Technology Inc. as the stock market’s “next trillion-dollar company,” but it’s going to take a lot of growth for the chipmaker to even sniff that lofty level.
SpaceX Set to Overtake Amazon in Value as It Soars for Third Day
SpaceX shares jumped on Tuesday, putting the firm on track to overtake Amazon.com Inc. as the fifth largest publicly traded company in the world just days after its blockbuster debut.
Tariff Endgame Taking Shape
Tariff rates will vary, but their persistence is certain.
Falling Oil Prices Reinforce Bullish Outlook
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
Introducing the IPO Class of 2026
The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window.
A Midyear Retirement Readiness Check
For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.
Gold Looks Oversold. Is This the Contrarian Moment Investors Have Been Waiting For?
Gold has always had a way of testing investors’ expectations. Just when the headlines appear most supportive—inflation is rising, geopolitical risk is escalating and confidence in fiat currency is being questioned—gold can suddenly move in the opposite direction.
Not All Diversification Strategies Are Equal
Advisors searching for diversification from a concentrated S&P 500 Index often reach for equal-weight strategies. However, a new report argues that all equal-weight approaches are not interchangeable.
Remembering Dr. Frank Sortino
Dr Frank Sortino passed away last month. He was 94. Frank was a good friend of mine. Frank earned the name Dr. Downside for redefining risk as a measure of not achieving your objectives, which led to the fairly famous Sortino Ratio.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Continue
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
Buyable Pullbacks. Be Prepared.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Inflation Sends Mixed Signals: Manageable for the Federal Reserve, Painful for Consumers
This week’s inflation data highlights a growing disconnect between how markets interpret inflation and how consumers experience it. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered a nuanced message: While headline inflation accelerated, core inflation remained relatively contained, an outcome that provides some comfort to policymakers.
Schwab Market Perspective: Mid-Year Outlook
During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.
Gold and Silver Pullbacks Temporary
The current economic downturn is best described as hybrid and structurally driven. It leans heavily on demand constraints, though it is triggered and complicated by ongoing supply shocks.
Buffer ETFs Give Cash-Shy Investors a Way Back In
Goldman Sachs and Innovator panelists say buffer ETFs can help advisors move cash-shy clients into stocks with built-in downside limits.
SpaceX Prepares for Debut After $75 Billion IPO Breaks Record
SpaceX made history with a $75 billion IPO that instantly turned it into one of the biggest public companies in the world. Now it has to win over the market.