Commentary

The Consumer is Tapping Out

The American consumer is tapped out. The savings buffer is gone, wage growth is declining, and credit costs are rising. Corporate America is already adjusting to this new reality, with companies issuing cautious guidance for 2025.

Commentary

Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.

Commentary

The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?

A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.

Commentary

Stagflation Panic: A Misdiagnosed Media Spin

Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, there was a massive surge in media headlines stating “stagflation.” The media’s stagflation panic is unsurprising as it elicits memories of the late 1970s during the Arab oil embargo.

Commentary

U.S. Recession Risks Not As High As The Media Suggests

Over the last couple of weeks, the market sell-off eclipsed 10% on an intraday basis, sending investor sentiment plummeting to levels usually seen during more significant declines and previous bear markets.

Commentary

Retail Investor Buys The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment

It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was “buying the dip” despite having an extremely bearish outlook.

Commentary

Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow

Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”

Commentary

NYSE A/D Line: A Topping Process In Progress?

The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter?

Commentary

The Risk Of A Recession Isn’t Zero

The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.

Commentary

Bearish Sentiment Surges As If The Market Just Crashed

Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.

Commentary

CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.

Commentary

Estimates By Analysts Have Gone Parabolic

Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.

Commentary

The Tariff Risk Isn’t In Inflation (Part II)

If Trump tariffs Chinese, European, or Canadian products, those countries tend to enact counter-balancing tariffs on U.S. products. Such slows demand for goods and services between all parties, again a deflationary process.

Commentary

Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction

Retail investors are expected to become more bullish about increasing equity exposure when markets rise.

Commentary

The Impact Of Tariffs Is Not As Bearish As Predicted

There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes.