Commentary

Is Buffett’s Cash Hoard A Market Warning?

Every year, investors anxiously await the release of Warren Buffett’s annual letter to see what the “Oracle of Omaha” says about the markets, the economy, and where he is placing his money.

Commentary

Moving Average Crossovers Suggest The Bull Is Back

While there is much debate over whether another bear market is imminent, weekly moving average crossovers suggest a different outcome for now. There are many current concerns, from geopolitical risk to still inverted yield curves, slowing economic growth, high interest rates, and inflation. Yet, despite those concerns, markets are flirting with all-time highs.

Commentary

The Investment “Holy Grail” Doesn’t Exist

When it comes to the financial markets, investors have a litany of investment vehicles to choose from. The choices are nearly unlimited, from brokered certificates of deposit to complex derivative instruments.

Commentary

Stock Rally As Powell Sparks A Buying Frenzy

The latest FOMC meeting caused a stock rally as Jerome Powell turned more “dovish” than expected. While Powell did note that progress on inflation has been lackluster, the announcement of the reversal of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) excited the bulls.

Commentary

Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming

Over the last two weeks, the bullish sentiment index has reversed from extreme greed to fear. The composite net bullish sentiment index, comprised of professional and retail investors, fell from 38.15 to 9.9 in two weeks.

Commentary

Behavioral Traits That Are Killing Your Portfolio Returns

Behavioral traits and cognitive biases are anathemas to portfolio management as they impair our ability to remain emotionally disconnected from our money. As history all too clearly shows, investors always do the “opposite” of what they should when it comes to investing their own money.

Commentary

Just A Correction, Or Is The Bull Market Over?

Is this just a correction after a strong bullish advance from November, or is the bull market ending?

Commentary

Economic Warning From The NFIB

The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey was an economic warning that departed widely from more robust governmental reports.

Commentary

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Economic “reflation” is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains, at least according to Gold Sachs and Tony Pasquariello.

Commentary

Immigration And Its Impact On Employment

While immigration has positively impacted economic growth and disinflation, this story has a dark side.

Commentary

Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets

In the most recent report from FINRA, margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market.

Commentary

Investing Lessons From Your Mother

Your mother likely imparted valuable investing lessons you may not have known. With Mother’s Day approaching and bullish market exuberance present, such is an excellent time to revisit the investing lessons she taught me.

Commentary

Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think

During running bull markets, much commentary is written on why this time is different and why investors should not worry about market corrections.

Commentary

Technical Measures And Valuations. Does Any Of It Matter?

Technical measures and valuations all suggest the market is expensive, overbought, and exuberant. However, none of it seems to matter as investors pile into equities to chase risk assets higher. A recent BofA report shows that the increase in risk appetite has been the largest since March 2021.

Commentary

Wealth Gap And The Road To Serfdom

One of the most interesting conundrums is the surging wealth gap in America. Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement. Such a reality starkly differs from the belief that rising asset prices benefit the masses.