Commentary

Rate Hikes: The Fed Won’t Hike Nearly As Much As Expected

Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.

Commentary

“Don’t Fight The Fed”

“Don’t Fight The Fed.” But, unfortunately, that mantra has remained a “call to arms” of the financial markets and media “bullish tribes” over the last decade.

Commentary

“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market

Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.

Commentary

Speculative Mania – Was 2021 The Peak?

“Speculative” is a word that aptly sums up the year 2021.

Commentary

New Year “Investor” Resolutions For 2022

Here are my New Year investor” resolutions for 2022.

Commentary

Small Caps Could Be In Trouble In 2022

The reality is that despite media commentary to the contrary, debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the economic growth promised. As a result, the disappointment of economic and earnings growth over the next year is almost a guarantee.

Commentary

Bull Markets & Why We Repeat Our Mistakes

During bull markets, investors have a concise memory of previous bear markets. Such is why, throughout history, cycles repeat as lessons must get learned and relearned.

Commentary

The Biggest Risk To Stocks Is Not The Fed

When the Fed initially starts hiking rates, it is usually during a strongly trending bull market. Much like a car rolling downhill in neutral, tapping the brakes initially doesn’t do much to curb the momentum. However, keep pushing on the brake pedal long enough, and the car will slow to stop. There are two things to take away from the chart below.

Commentary

“Wipe Out” Below The Calm Surface Of The Bull Market

“Wipe Out” is an appropriate description of what is happening beneath the calm surface of the bull market.

Commentary

Going To Cash Can Be As Costly As A Market Crash

Going to all cash in your portfolio to avoid a crash can be just as costly as the crash itself. A recent CNBC article quoted a $200 billion money manager suggesting “every stock market investor should be ready to go to cash.”

Commentary

CNBC Index Of MoMo Stocks A Sign Of Exuberance

Financial history is littered with the remains of ideas that marked the peaks and troughs of markets over time. From magazine covers to the world’s tallest skyscrapers to new investment products and strategies. Most proved to be the result of the psychology at that time, whether it was excessive bullishness or overwhelming fear.

Commentary

The Market Is Disconnected From Everything

The market is disconnected from everything. Throughout history, there are correlations you would expect to hold constant between the market, consumer confidence, and the economy.

Commentary

The Fed’s Monetary Policy Has Screwed Americans

The Fed’s monetary policy has screwed Americans. Such is the basic premise of a recent Washington Times article discussing inflation.

Commentary

Inflation vs. Deflation – Which Is The Bigger Threat In 2022?

Inflation vs. deflation – while headlines get filled with “inflation” concerns, historical data shows “deflation” remains a threat.

Commentary

Could The Fed Trigger The Next “Financial Crisis”

Could the Fed trigger the next “financial crisis” as they begin to hike interest rates? Such is certainly a question worth asking as we look back at the Fed’s history of previous monetary actions.