CEO Confidence Plunges, Consumers Won’t Like What Happens Next

There is a disparity happening in the country.

No, it isn’t political partisanship, but rather “economic confidence.”

The latest release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey rose to a three-month high of 96, beat consensus expectations, and remains near record levels. Conversely, CEO confidence in the economy is near record lows.

It’s an interesting dichotomy.

The chart below shows our composite confidence index, which combines both the University of Michigan and Conference Board measures. The chart compares the composite index to the S&P 500 index with the shaded areas representing when the composite index was above a reading of 100.

On the surface, this is bullish for investors. High levels of consumer confidence (above 100) have correlated with positive returns from the S&P 500.

However, high readings are also a warning sign as they then to occur just prior to the onset of a recession. As noted, apparently, consumers did not “get the memo” from CEO’s.

So, who’s right?