The Bancorp Institutional Banking business provides financial professionals with innovative lending solutions, such as an Insurance-Backed Line of Credit (IBLOC), that can seamlessly integrate with their clients’ wealth management strategies. An IBLOC allows financial professionals to show clients they are a forward-thinking steward of their wealth management by educating them on how they can use this money to work for them.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
Vietnam is a frontier market star.
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Because the consequences of leaving longevity unmanaged are likely to be the most devastating, advisors must act now to address it.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
A vague tweet by a founder of Three Arrows Capital, an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices plummeted, is stirring fresh apprehension in an already shaken industry.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
When will the bear market end?
I bought an apartment last year and if I were buying today, I wouldn't be able to afford it.
The year 2022 sure has felt like a pretty bad one so far: interest rates and consumer prices have spiked up, and stock prices are sharply down. But, in terms of what really matters, many investors are better off than they were at the end of 2021–almost 5% better off for an investor in a diversified balanced portfolio.
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Most everyone knows that Bitcoin had a stellar two years when the pandemic broke out. But just about all of the coin’s gains since then have happened while US markets are closed.
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
We have a very precise methodology for dissecting the world’s equity markets.
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
Virtual reality is not reality!
The tale of Bear Stearns’ rally and investors' myopic vision in the spring of 2008 is a valuable lesson for today.
Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is concerned that retail investors are being duped by “greenwashing.”
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981.
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
For investors wondering where to store cash, comparing the maturity profiles on Treasuries with their “risk of loss” history can help reveal where value might lie within shorter maturities.
The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.
The Federal Reserve's resolve to fight inflation could be tested even before a recession hits by dislocations in certain corners of the market that are not well understood. This is about more than just a bear market in stocks or an implosion in cryptocurrencies. Rather, this is about the “plumbing” that keeps markets running smoothly and facilitates the flow of money in and out of the financial system.
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
With the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, traders are looking for further details on the plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.
Liquidity is the lifeblood of the capital markets. It is the ease at which an asset can be turned into cash without disrupting the price of that asset. This was never really a concern in the US, whose markets are prized for being the deepest, most liquid in the world. It’s one reason why the dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
There’s no escaping the Federal Reserve (Fed) when it comes to investing these days.
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
This week has seen a series of rapid contractions across the digital asset ecosystem. In a space that is well-known for volatility, even this week has stood out to observers.
Research Affiliates discusses the intriguing long-term outlook for value stocks, and provides insights on the models that underpin its asset class forecasts.
“What does a yellow light mean? Slow down!
John Paul Lech, Lead Manager of the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund, explains the potential value that unique real estate equities can offer emerging market-growth portfolios.
U.S. equities plunged, finishing near the lows of the day, following disappointing quarterly results from Target Corporation and Lowe's Companies, with both retailers warning of rising cost pressures.
The risks of tightening into a downturn.
Credit market volatility this year has been extreme.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his most hawkish remarks to date, said the US central bank will keep raising interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat.
Wylie Tollette, Head of Client Investment Solutions with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, joins the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover, for a conversation on the recent equity market selloff.
Historical data shows that stock markets have reacted poorly when the Fed has contracted its balance sheet and reduced liquidity – and the effect is more pronounced when Fed actions deviate from what the market expects.
Some big-name investors forecast that Bitcoin will eventually hit $100,000, $1 million or more. It could very well do that, but for now, its price is closer to $0. That’s both a risk and an opportunity.
The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened considerably.
Rising yields, wider spreads, and heightened market volatility are providing an attractive environment, but caution in credit selection is warranted.
Selling an exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be just as easy as buying one, irrespective of the fund’s size or volume.
The geopolitical crisis in Ukraine creates a stagflationary shock for global economies. The plan to fight inflation just got far more complicated for global central banks.
Liquidity is fading due to the Fed, and therefore volatility is on the rise. Illiquid and volatile markets are not conducive to long-term wealth generation.
The Fed has set the stage for a series of rapid rate hikes.
Stock markets continued to sink following last week’s recession worries, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the threat to global growth from China’s continued Covid lockdowns. The fear could be seen across asset classes, as traders offloaded equities and other risk assets in favor of cash.
If you’ve been paying attention to prices of gold and gold mining stocks the last few weeks, you probably noticed that they go up when the stock market goes up, and they go down when the stock market goes down, limiting the usefulness of gold as a hedge. This isn’t the first time this has happened.
Liquidity
Insurance-Backed Line of Credit: An Innovative Way to Access Liquidity
The Bancorp Institutional Banking business provides financial professionals with innovative lending solutions, such as an Insurance-Backed Line of Credit (IBLOC), that can seamlessly integrate with their clients’ wealth management strategies. An IBLOC allows financial professionals to show clients they are a forward-thinking steward of their wealth management by educating them on how they can use this money to work for them.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
Good Morning, Vietnam
Vietnam is a frontier market star.
Bill Gates-Led Fund Backs Startup With Cheaper Way to Move Hydrogen
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Miner Capitulation Means Bitcoin Bottom Is Near
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
The Future of Female Financial Empowerment is Today
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Why I Consulted with an Active Fund Manager
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
The Emperor of All Risks
Because the consequences of leaving longevity unmanaged are likely to be the most devastating, advisors must act now to address it.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Everything You Wanted To Know About Bear Markets
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
ARKK Stocks Sunk
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
Bear Watch
With stocks down around 20% year-to-date, it is important for investors to know what kind of bear they are dealing with.
Will the Fed’s Third Mandate Derail Markets?
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
Crypto Hedge Fund’s Ominous Tweet Is Latest Shock to Market
A vague tweet by a founder of Three Arrows Capital, an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices plummeted, is stirring fresh apprehension in an already shaken industry.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Politics Have Distorted Americans’ Views of the Economy
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
‘Straightforward Bad’: Stock Investors React to Inflation Report
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Stagflation May Be Our Next Stop (but that is not what I am worried about)
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
When Will This Bear Market End?
When will the bear market end?
Waiting for Mortgage Rates to Fall? Don't Hold Your Breath.
I bought an apartment last year and if I were buying today, I wouldn't be able to afford it.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying, and Love the (Interest Rate) Bomb
The year 2022 sure has felt like a pretty bad one so far: interest rates and consumer prices have spiked up, and stock prices are sharply down. But, in terms of what really matters, many investors are better off than they were at the end of 2021–almost 5% better off for an investor in a diversified balanced portfolio.
Is Gold the Answer?
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Most of Bitcoin Pandemic Gains Came While Stocks Were Closed
Most everyone knows that Bitcoin had a stellar two years when the pandemic broke out. But just about all of the coin’s gains since then have happened while US markets are closed.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Lower as Volatility Continues
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Quick Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty In A Rapidly Changing World
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
Will Corporate Credits Crack as Growth Slows?
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Tour of the Global Equity Markets
We have a very precise methodology for dissecting the world’s equity markets.
Recession Talk Is Exaggerated
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
The Problems with Market-Cap Weighted Index Funds
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
No Soft Landings
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
A “Lost Decade” Ahead For Markets?
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
2022 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.
Stock Market Metaverse
Virtual reality is not reality!
Bear Stearns: A Lesson in Bear Market Bounces
The tale of Bear Stearns’ rally and investors' myopic vision in the spring of 2008 is a valuable lesson for today.
Think Twice Before Buying a Muni Below Par
Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.
Short-Term Headwinds Abound For Gold
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.
SEC Proposals for ESG Ignore 80 Years of Financial Science
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is concerned that retail investors are being duped by “greenwashing.”
Zombie Firms Face Slow Death in US as Era of Easy Credit Ends
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
High Inflation May Already Be Behind Us
High inflation has captured the headlines as of late particularly as CPI recently hit the highest levels since 1981.
The Mother Of All Bear Markets
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
The Growing Threat Posed by the Federal Deficit
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
Storing Cash
For investors wondering where to store cash, comparing the maturity profiles on Treasuries with their “risk of loss” history can help reveal where value might lie within shorter maturities.
Six Reasons Inflation is So High
The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.
The Federal Reserve's Next Act Will Test Market Stability
The Federal Reserve's resolve to fight inflation could be tested even before a recession hits by dislocations in certain corners of the market that are not well understood. This is about more than just a bear market in stocks or an implosion in cryptocurrencies. Rather, this is about the “plumbing” that keeps markets running smoothly and facilitates the flow of money in and out of the financial system.
Despite the Gray Mood, Skies Are Only Partly Cloudy
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
Fed’s Balance-Sheet Unwind Puts Treasuries on ‘Uncertain’ Path
With the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, traders are looking for further details on the plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.
The Next Crisis to Hit Markets May Be About Liquidity
Liquidity is the lifeblood of the capital markets. It is the ease at which an asset can be turned into cash without disrupting the price of that asset. This was never really a concern in the US, whose markets are prized for being the deepest, most liquid in the world. It’s one reason why the dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency.
Russian Port Sieges ‘Declaration of War,’ UN Says
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Drilling Down: Oil Production Scenarios Across Countries
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
Money’s Many And Problematic Definitions
There’s no escaping the Federal Reserve (Fed) when it comes to investing these days.
Which Investments Worked 40 Years Ago When Inflation Was This High?
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
Digital Asset Market Note: A “De-pegging” Soros Would Be Proud Of
This week has seen a series of rapid contractions across the digital asset ecosystem. In a space that is well-known for volatility, even this week has stood out to observers.
All Asset All Access: Managing Portfolios Amid Evolving Market Narratives
Research Affiliates discusses the intriguing long-term outlook for value stocks, and provides insights on the models that underpin its asset class forecasts.
What Does A Yellow Light Mean?
“What does a yellow light mean? Slow down!
Elevate Your Portfolio
John Paul Lech, Lead Manager of the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund, explains the potential value that unique real estate equities can offer emerging market-growth portfolios.
Schwab Market Update: Losses Accelerate into the Close
U.S. equities plunged, finishing near the lows of the day, following disappointing quarterly results from Target Corporation and Lowe's Companies, with both retailers warning of rising cost pressures.
Fed Aggressiveness Following Delayed Liftoff Sets Up 2023 Collision
The risks of tightening into a downturn.
Credit: This Time Is Different?
Credit market volatility this year has been extreme.
Powell Says Fed Will ‘Keep Pushing’ Until Inflation Comes Down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his most hawkish remarks to date, said the US central bank will keep raising interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat.
Making Sense of the Recent Market Selloffs
Wylie Tollette, Head of Client Investment Solutions with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, joins the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover, for a conversation on the recent equity market selloff.
Beware the Fed’s Balance Sheet Unwinding
Historical data shows that stock markets have reacted poorly when the Fed has contracted its balance sheet and reduced liquidity – and the effect is more pronounced when Fed actions deviate from what the market expects.
Crypto Winters Have Been Great Times to Buy. Today, Bitcoin Is Half Off
Some big-name investors forecast that Bitcoin will eventually hit $100,000, $1 million or more. It could very well do that, but for now, its price is closer to $0. That’s both a risk and an opportunity.
A Little Harder
The Strategic Investment Conference wrapped up this week with another wave of strong, fascinating speakers and panels. Today I have more to share and, as you’ll see, the plot thickened considerably.
Income Strategy Update: Opportunities Ahead
Rising yields, wider spreads, and heightened market volatility are providing an attractive environment, but caution in credit selection is warranted.
Don’t Fear the ETF Liquidity Boogeyman
Selling an exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be just as easy as buying one, irrespective of the fund’s size or volume.
A Stagflationary Shock
The geopolitical crisis in Ukraine creates a stagflationary shock for global economies. The plan to fight inflation just got far more complicated for global central banks.
Watch Out: The Fed is Removing Liquidity from the Markets
Liquidity is fading due to the Fed, and therefore volatility is on the rise. Illiquid and volatile markets are not conducive to long-term wealth generation.
The Fed Picks Up The Pace
The Fed has set the stage for a series of rapid rate hikes.
Pandemic-Era Darlings Morph Into Symbols of New Market Wreckage
Stock markets continued to sink following last week’s recession worries, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the threat to global growth from China’s continued Covid lockdowns. The fear could be seen across asset classes, as traders offloaded equities and other risk assets in favor of cash.
Gold's Strange Behavior Shows It's No Haven
If you’ve been paying attention to prices of gold and gold mining stocks the last few weeks, you probably noticed that they go up when the stock market goes up, and they go down when the stock market goes down, limiting the usefulness of gold as a hedge. This isn’t the first time this has happened.
Short-Term Headwinds Abound For Gold
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.