Today, I am going to bring a new technology, and a new company, to your attention – a company in control of a technology so powerful that lithium-ion batteries could soon become yesterday’s story.
Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.
Public credit markets offer high quality investments with attractive yields and downside resilience, while we see growing longer-term opportunities in private markets.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is up 70 basis points this year, leading many to question the future direction of interest rates. Let’s look at the underlying causes of this and whether those conditions are likely to persist.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 49.0 in September. The latest figure marks the eleventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The August reading was above the forecast of 47.7.
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Certain asset classes thrive or lag as economies move through one cycle to the next. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow shares how to analyze different economic indicators and how asset classes perform through economic regime changes.
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
Anyone who even casually pays attention to the financial media has likely become familiar with the current state of inflation as well as how high interest rates have risen over the past ~2 years.
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
The fate of stock options with a face value of trillions of dollars is being influenced by unusual trading activity in the S&P 500 outside regular market hours, new research has found.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index plummeted 7.1% in August to 71.8, a larger decline than the expected -0.8% decrease. This is the lowest reading for the index since April 2020 and is the second lowest figure in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 18.7% compared to one year ago.
Investors have been increasingly allocating to various alternative investments. However, I don't see them as distinct assets deserving of allocations. As I discuss in my article below, I consider alternatives investment styles and as optional for portfolios as taste is for nutrition.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
A balanced portfolio needs assets with strong return potential and those that may provide downside mitigation. We believe direct lending can deliver both—a potentially valuable feature, particularly in today’s uncertain market.
Investors think about companies as being either large or small. In between those extremes are midcaps. Based on historical performance and fundamentals, midcaps should command more attention.
A group of high-frequency traders, market makers and service providers calling themselves the Shortwave Modernization Coalition has asked the Federal Communications Commission for access to the shortwave band of the radio spectrum, seeking to shave crucial milliseconds off the transmission of data between major financial sectors.
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
Last week we began exploring the details of my personal portfolio. This week we will finish and then move back to our discussion of various cycles.
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Low interest rates can lead people to rationalize all sorts of bad ideas: investing in companies that will never make a profit, financing share buybacks with debt, spending billions on terrible streaming content, to name a few.
ETF Trends interviewed three sources about active ETFs, why financial advisors are opting for these investment solutions for clients, and how these factors have changed in recent years. Each source responded to the same questions in their respective interviews.
To prevent catastrophic climate change and accelerate the global transition to a net-zero economy, policymakers and asset owners urgently need to rethink how we channel capital at scale. The key is to develop new financial instruments that are profitable, liquid, and easily accessible to savers and investors globally.
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
Inverted curves (when the gold line goes below the red line meaning that short maturity yields are higher compared to longer maturity yields) have preceded recessions.
Banks have reemerged as a potential pain point for the investment community, as rating agencies recently embarked on a downgrade cycle in the sector.
For new investors, the world of finance can appear daunting. But among the sea of investment options, Treasury bonds (often just called “Treasuries”) are a pillar of stability and reliability.
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
Fifty cents on the dollar is a very low price in the world of bonds. In most cases, it signals that investors believe the seller of the debt is in such financial distress that it could default.
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
Confidence is returning to the bond markets and one sign is corporations’ willingness to start taking on debt again with new issuance.
Rising interest rates are giving sellers an opportunity to broaden their opportunity set.
VettaFi’s Dave Nadig covers the launch of the first ETF holding 0DTE options, along with IPOs in ETFs, flows, and stories to watch moving forward. Astoria’s John Davi spotlights their recently launched U.S. Quality Kings ETF (ROE) and discusses current model portfolio positioning. Fort Washington Investment Advisors’ Laura Mayfield explains the management process behind two Touchstone ETFs, including their Securitized Income ETF (TSEC).
Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.
Playing Shakespeare’s King Lear is the crowning ambition for some actors, but in 2023 we’re seeing superstar hedge fund managers Daniel Och and Ray Dalio trying out for the role in real life.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
How long will the Federal Reserve continue quantitative tightening (QT)? How large will its balance sheet be when QT ends? These important questions impact financial market liquidity, the anchor of asset values. We assess the likely path of QT in the years ahead.
ETFs are the instrument of choice for millions of investors in the U.S. Through a single trade and for a relatively low price, an investor gains broad exposure to a market, sector or niche.
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
In this first episode, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow discusses the democratization of alternative investments and related topics with CAIA’s John Bowman.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses economic and geopolitical factors shaping the long-term global outlook.
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Everyone — from moms and pops to corporate treasurers and the mega asset managers — is piling in, won over by a unique opportunity: To lock in a 5% yield, and protect themselves from uncertainty over the US economy.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 91.3 in August, as small business owners continued to report inflation as their biggest problem. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 91.6 and marked the 20th consecutive month the index has been below the series average of 98.
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
Today's economic conditions are attractive for BDCs (business development companies), and some benefit from businesses seeking alternative financing sources.
In the final part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Sherwood Zhang look at the companies that are reconfiguring their networks and portfolio manager Vivek Tanneeru gives his assessment on the investment opportunities.
VettaFi’s Lara Crigger goes around the world of ETFs, covering recent spot Ethereum ETF filings, short duration bond ETFs, Nasdaq 100 ETF flows, Amplify ETFs’ purchase of ETFMG’s ETF lineup, and the recipe for thematic ETF success. Franklin Templeton’s David Mann discusses the firm’s approach to passive, smart beta, and actively managed ETFs.
The Fed typically starts to ease ahead of economic weakness. But this isn't necessarily bad news for financial markets.
Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many other great companies have arguably much better valuations and fundamentals.
US banking regulators are back to their old tricks. In the wake of a crisis — this time the March demise of a handful of regional banks — they want banks to fund themselves with more loss-absorbing equity capital.
Traders in the $325 billion industry for emerging-market exchange-traded funds are shifting cash toward strategies that focus on brighter spots in the developing world as China’s economy stumbles.
Even though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, investors should prepare for continued market volatility this month.
Resilient consumer spending has been a pillar of the US economy. While activity may soften, we think the consumer will help the coming slowdown stay mild.
On the interest rate front, the Federal funds rate is now close to systematic benchmarks that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, nominal GDP growth, and unemployment.
Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, at Franklin Templeton Institute, shares some takeaways from a panel discussion on the topic.
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
There’s a growing consensus that we need more housing and less office space as cities move forward with plans to transform themselves in a post-pandemic world.
US regional banks may need to raise significant amounts of additional debt to comply with new regulatory requirements, but the extra capital might not be enough to prevent future failures, according to research published Wednesday.
In the second part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Peeyush Mittal examine the regions and countries that may benefit from industries and companies shifting operations.
Seven mega-cap US-based companies – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta (Facebook) – have stayed top of mind for many investors this year.
Restricting the money supply will help contain inflation.
In general, portfolios can be split into growth assets and principal protecting assets. Growth assets tend to have greater risk coupled with greater income/reward.
Bond investors have been looking for an approach that delivers attractive, repeatable, uncorrelated active returns. Is their wait over?
New tests are making it easier for doctors to detect cancer and provide targeted treatments.
Market making in digital tokens used to be a font of outsized profitability. The picture today is very different as costs jump and investors avoid a crypto sector scarred by a $2 trillion rout.
An electronic trading revolution is finally coming to corporate bonds, years after reaching other financial markets.
Investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk free. Why shouldn't they? Every economic and financial textbook, media outlet, and bond guru says so.
Stocks are up 18.7% year-to-date, which is good news for portfolios and 401(k)s, but did you know that most of the heavy lifting has been done by a very small number of S&P 500 stocks?
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
In an environment of pronounced volatility and less-than-certain equity and bond performance in the last few years, investors are leaning toward more complex strategies such as alternatives.
Investors looking for extra yield are driving corporate bonds to some of their tightest valuations of the year, pushing money managers including Pacific Investment Management Co. toward mortgage debt that looks much cheaper.
We believe the best way to add value is through relative positioning in sector allocations, individual security selection and along the yield curve, holding duration neutral overall. That approach, however, does not prevent us from having views on interest rates and we think bonds offer good value at current rate levels.
Sometimes things sound the same, look the same, or feel the same – but they are not. It doesn’t necessarily mean one is better or worse than another but uniquely dissimilar and serving, unlike purposes.
Liquidity
BTRY for Battery
Today, I am going to bring a new technology, and a new company, to your attention – a company in control of a technology so powerful that lithium-ion batteries could soon become yesterday’s story.
CD or Treasury? Five Factors to Consider
Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.
Navigating Credit Markets Today – A Q&A With Mark Kiesel and Jamie Weinstein
Public credit markets offer high quality investments with attractive yields and downside resilience, while we see growing longer-term opportunities in private markets.
Why Rates are Rising
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is up 70 basis points this year, leading many to question the future direction of interest rates. Let’s look at the underlying causes of this and whether those conditions are likely to persist.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for Eleventh Consecutive Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 49.0 in September. The latest figure marks the eleventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The August reading was above the forecast of 47.7.
Why Central Banks Will Soon Lend to Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Alternative Allocations: Navigating Through Economic Regimes
Certain asset classes thrive or lag as economies move through one cycle to the next. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow shares how to analyze different economic indicators and how asset classes perform through economic regime changes.
China’s Economic Woes Have Sparked A Gold Rush
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
Visions of Sugar Plums and Soft Landings
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related
behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
Get Real
Anyone who even casually pays attention to the financial media has likely become familiar with the current state of inflation as well as how high interest rates have risen over the past ~2 years.
Risk: Hikes May Be Over, But QT Goes On
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
Beyond the Landing
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
Where Are All the Private Equity Bankruptcies?
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
S&P 500 Options Quirk Mints Billions, Stirring Manipulation Talk
The fate of stock options with a face value of trillions of dollars is being influenced by unusual trading activity in the S&P 500 outside regular market hours, new research has found.
Pending Home Sales Plummet 7.1% in August
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index plummeted 7.1% in August to 71.8, a larger decline than the expected -0.8% decrease. This is the lowest reading for the index since April 2020 and is the second lowest figure in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 18.7% compared to one year ago.
Treat Alternatives Like Cuisines, Not Distinct Assets
Investors have been increasingly allocating to various alternative investments. However, I don't see them as distinct assets deserving of allocations. As I discuss in my article below, I consider alternatives investment styles and as optional for portfolios as taste is for nutrition.
Global Economic Outlook: China Casts a Shadow in the East…and West
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Offense or Defense? Direct Lending Can Play Both
A balanced portfolio needs assets with strong return potential and those that may provide downside mitigation. We believe direct lending can deliver both—a potentially valuable feature, particularly in today’s uncertain market.
The Compelling Opportunity in Midcaps
Investors think about companies as being either large or small. In between those extremes are midcaps. Based on historical performance and fundamentals, midcaps should command more attention.
High-Frequency Traders Want Low-Frequency Radio Waves
A group of high-frequency traders, market makers and service providers calling themselves the Shortwave Modernization Coalition has asked the Federal Communications Commission for access to the shortwave band of the radio spectrum, seeking to shave crucial milliseconds off the transmission of data between major financial sectors.
Why Junior Gold Stocks Could Be Gearing Up For A Glittering Performance
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
More Personal Portfolio: Biotech, Commodities, and Gold
Last week we began exploring the details of my personal portfolio. This week we will finish and then move back to our discussion of various cycles.
Treasury Buyback Plan Will Boost Market Resilience, US Debt Official Says
The resilience of the world’s biggest bond market is top priority as US debt officials prepare to start buying back government debt, according to Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets.
Where to Add Risk in Multi-Asset Portfolios Right Now
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Private Equity Won’t Diversify Your Portfolio
Low interest rates can lead people to rationalize all sorts of bad ideas: investing in companies that will never make a profit, financing share buybacks with debt, spending billions on terrible streaming content, to name a few.
The Rise of Active ETFs: 3 Experts Weigh In
ETF Trends interviewed three sources about active ETFs, why financial advisors are opting for these investment solutions for clients, and how these factors have changed in recent years. Each source responded to the same questions in their respective interviews.
What Climate Finance Needs
To prevent catastrophic climate change and accelerate the global transition to a net-zero economy, policymakers and asset owners urgently need to rethink how we channel capital at scale. The key is to develop new financial instruments that are profitable, liquid, and easily accessible to savers and investors globally.
Fed Pauses but Projects One More Hike This Year
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
Thematic ETF Trends to Watch Entering 2024
Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.
ECB Prioritizes Fighting Inflation Above Avoiding Recession
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
To the Point!
Inverted curves (when the gold line goes below the red line meaning that short maturity yields are higher compared to longer maturity yields) have preceded recessions.
Do We Really Need to Be Worried About the Banking Sector?
Banks have reemerged as a potential pain point for the investment community, as rating agencies recently embarked on a downgrade cycle in the sector.
The ABCs of Treasury Bonds
For new investors, the world of finance can appear daunting. But among the sea of investment options, Treasury bonds (often just called “Treasuries”) are a pillar of stability and reliability.
Say Goodbye…to Great Moderation?
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
Sub-50 Cent Price on Treasury Bond Underscores Investor Pain
Fifty cents on the dollar is a very low price in the world of bonds. In most cases, it signals that investors believe the seller of the debt is in such financial distress that it could default.
VettaFi Voices On: Choosing Your Wrapper
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
Get Active Exposure as Corporate Confidence Returns in Bonds
Confidence is returning to the bond markets and one sign is corporations’ willingness to start taking on debt again with new issuance.
Seller Financing of Real Estate is Back
Rising interest rates are giving sellers an opportunity to broaden their opportunity set.
Zero-Day Options ETFs, Quality Factor, & Securitized Income
VettaFi’s Dave Nadig covers the launch of the first ETF holding 0DTE options, along with IPOs in ETFs, flows, and stories to watch moving forward. Astoria’s John Davi spotlights their recently launched U.S. Quality Kings ETF (ROE) and discusses current model portfolio positioning. Fort Washington Investment Advisors’ Laura Mayfield explains the management process behind two Touchstone ETFs, including their Securitized Income ETF (TSEC).
Shifting Trends Favor European Banks vs. US Banks for the First Time in Years
Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.
Dalio’s Shakespearean Turn Is a Sign of the Times
Playing Shakespeare’s King Lear is the crowning ambition for some actors, but in 2023 we’re seeing superstar hedge fund managers Daniel Och and Ray Dalio trying out for the role in real life.
Schwab Market Perspective: Tension
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
China Hits a Speed Bump. Could the Road Ahead Feature More Stimulus?
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
What's in My Personal Portfolio?
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
Easing Deflation Could Give China Bulls Some Hope
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
Locking in Target Returns
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Why Global Bonds Make Sense for US Investors
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Munis Fall Short Of Seasonal Expectations In August
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
Inflation Is Coming Down. Will Treasury Yields Be Next?
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (Qt) Will Face Constraints
How long will the Federal Reserve continue quantitative tightening (QT)? How large will its balance sheet be when QT ends? These important questions impact financial market liquidity, the anchor of asset values. We assess the likely path of QT in the years ahead.
What’s the Right Price for an ETF?
ETFs are the instrument of choice for millions of investors in the U.S. Through a single trade and for a relatively low price, an investor gains broad exposure to a market, sector or niche.
Impact of Local Infrastructure Investments on a Portfolio
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
Alternative Allocations: The State of the Alternative Investments Industry
In this first episode, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow discusses the democratization of alternative investments and related topics with CAIA’s John Bowman.
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports. Should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person.
Shifting Macro Trends in the Aftershock Economy
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses economic and geopolitical factors shaping the long-term global outlook.
Higher Rates: Positive Values
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Treasury Bills Yielding 5% Are a Big Hit With Retail Investors
Everyone — from moms and pops to corporate treasurers and the mega asset managers — is piling in, won over by a unique opportunity: To lock in a 5% yield, and protect themselves from uncertainty over the US economy.
Inflation Remains Biggest Problem for Small Businesses
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 91.3 in August, as small business owners continued to report inflation as their biggest problem. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 91.6 and marked the 20th consecutive month the index has been below the series average of 98.
Treasury Yields: Where Do They Go From Here?
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
High Rates and Lower Bank Lending May Lift BDCs
Today's economic conditions are attractive for BDCs (business development companies), and some benefit from businesses seeking alternative financing sources.
Investing in an Emerging World Order. Part 3
In the final part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Sherwood Zhang look at the companies that are reconfiguring their networks and portfolio manager Vivek Tanneeru gives his assessment on the investment opportunities.
VettaFi’s Lara Crigger on Spot Ether ETF Filings, Bond ETFs, Thematics, & More
VettaFi’s Lara Crigger goes around the world of ETFs, covering recent spot Ethereum ETF filings, short duration bond ETFs, Nasdaq 100 ETF flows, Amplify ETFs’ purchase of ETFMG’s ETF lineup, and the recipe for thematic ETF success. Franklin Templeton’s David Mann discusses the firm’s approach to passive, smart beta, and actively managed ETFs.
When the Fed Begins to Ease, Markets Respond Positively
The Fed typically starts to ease ahead of economic weakness. But this isn't necessarily bad news for financial markets.
Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?
Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many other great companies have arguably much better valuations and fundamentals.
Bigger Financial Cushions Won’t Solve Banks’ Woes
US banking regulators are back to their old tricks. In the wake of a crisis — this time the March demise of a handful of regional banks — they want banks to fund themselves with more loss-absorbing equity capital.
ETF Investors Pour Cash Into EM’s Non-China Growth Engines
Traders in the $325 billion industry for emerging-market exchange-traded funds are shifting cash toward strategies that focus on brighter spots in the developing world as China’s economy stumbles.
September, The Market’s Most Feared Month, Could Be A Golden Opportunity
Even though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, investors should prepare for continued market volatility this month.
What Is It About the US Consumer?
Resilient consumer spending has been a pillar of the US economy. While activity may soften, we think the consumer will help the coming slowdown stay mild.
Central Bankers Wandering in the Woods
On the interest rate front, the Federal funds rate is now close to systematic benchmarks that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, nominal GDP growth, and unemployment.
Investment Ideas—Building Portfolios During Economic Uncertainty
Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, at Franklin Templeton Institute, shares some takeaways from a panel discussion on the topic.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
Cities Need People, People Need Homes. Both Must Wait.
There’s a growing consensus that we need more housing and less office space as cities move forward with plans to transform themselves in a post-pandemic world.
Regional Banks May Need to Sell $63 Billion in Bonds Under Rule
US regional banks may need to raise significant amounts of additional debt to comply with new regulatory requirements, but the extra capital might not be enough to prevent future failures, according to research published Wednesday.
Investing in an Emerging World Order. Part 2
In the second part of our series on global supply chains, portfolio managers Inbok Song and Peeyush Mittal examine the regions and countries that may benefit from industries and companies shifting operations.
Factors & the Magnificent Seven
Seven mega-cap US-based companies – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta (Facebook) – have stayed top of mind for many investors this year.
Europe: Monetary Rehab
Restricting the money supply will help contain inflation.
In Case You Haven’t Noticed
In general, portfolios can be split into growth assets and principal protecting assets. Growth assets tend to have greater risk coupled with greater income/reward.
Systematic Fixed Income: A Breakthrough in Bond Investing
Bond investors have been looking for an approach that delivers attractive, repeatable, uncorrelated active returns. Is their wait over?
The Future of Cancer Detection
New tests are making it easier for doctors to detect cancer and provide targeted treatments.
Crypto Market-Making Profit Margins Sink 30% in ‘Wake-Up Call’
Market making in digital tokens used to be a font of outsized profitability. The picture today is very different as costs jump and investors avoid a crypto sector scarred by a $2 trillion rout.
Quant Firm Man Numeric Aims to Go 100% Electronic for Credit Trades By 2025
An electronic trading revolution is finally coming to corporate bonds, years after reaching other financial markets.
Risk-Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction?
Investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk free. Why shouldn't they? Every economic and financial textbook, media outlet, and bond guru says so.
Is It Time For Investors To Consider Sector Rotation Amid A Tech-Heavy S&P 500?
Stocks are up 18.7% year-to-date, which is good news for portfolios and 401(k)s, but did you know that most of the heavy lifting has been done by a very small number of S&P 500 stocks?
Local Government Financing Vehicles: A Growing Risk for China’s Economy?
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
An Advisor’s Guide to Demystifying Managed Futures
In an environment of pronounced volatility and less-than-certain equity and bond performance in the last few years, investors are leaning toward more complex strategies such as alternatives.
Local Government Financing Vehicles: A Growing Risk for China’s Economy?
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
Pimco Taps Battered Mortgage Bonds as Credit Gets Expensive
Investors looking for extra yield are driving corporate bonds to some of their tightest valuations of the year, pushing money managers including Pacific Investment Management Co. toward mortgage debt that looks much cheaper.
The Top 10 Reasons to Like Bonds Now
We believe the best way to add value is through relative positioning in sector allocations, individual security selection and along the yield curve, holding duration neutral overall. That approach, however, does not prevent us from having views on interest rates and we think bonds offer good value at current rate levels.
Details Matter
Sometimes things sound the same, look the same, or feel the same – but they are not. It doesn’t necessarily mean one is better or worse than another but uniquely dissimilar and serving, unlike purposes.