The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Energy transition investment follows familiar patterns in global capital markets. Large, established financial institutions supply hundreds of billions of dollars a year to finance construction of long-lived assets using familiar zero-carbon technologies — i.e., deployment.
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
In our 2022 Volume Analysis Outlook, the S&P 500 was fresh off new highs exceeding 4800.
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
In my work with female clients in transition, some of the most difficult conversations are with those whose lives have been upended by the death of their spouses.
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
The world’s largest digital asset is mired in its sixth straight day of declines, with the token down roughly 20% over the past seven days. It’s now 50% below its November peak and was trading as low as $32,970 on Monday, the lowest since July.
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Since implementing new software, we’ve tripled our conversion rate with new prospects and dramatically shortened our sales cycle.
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is worried about a lack of oversight in how large, private companies raise capital.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure lawmakers and investors on Tuesday that the central bank can pull off the tricky task of bringing down four-decade high inflation without damaging the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
“Speculative” is a word that aptly sums up the year 2021.
After one of the roughest patches ever for Bitcoin enthusiasts, holders of the largest digital currency are facing an ominous technical price pattern with a name that suggests more pain ahead.
Long before supply chain issues and soaring consumer prices made the headlines, I warned readers that massive monetary expansion made persistent inflation inevitable.
By expanding its use of reverse repurchase agreements to nearly $1.6 trillion, the Fed has kept money market funds solvent and prevented a systemic failure.
The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.
Bitcoin dipped below $40,000 for the first time since September, putting it on pace for its worst start to a year since the earliest days of the digital alternative to money.
Contemplating a new year ahead, you may be wondering…what is going to happen?
Leveraged loan supply and demand experienced a banner year in 2021.
What has been a tumultuous last few months for crypto markets has only accelerated through the turn of the New Year.
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead.
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
Excess cash has accumulated in every corner of the economy.
Talent is quitting. And new talent is hard to hire.
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
Bitcoin’s getting a drubbing this week as the Federal Reserve readies a removal of stimulus, but bulls are feeling as emboldened as ever.
Federal Reserve officials have begun debating how to approach shrinking a stockpile of more than $8 trillion of bonds as a key element of a policy-normalization campaign in the wake of unprecedented moves to shore up the economy during the pandemic.
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.
Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth.
Stand on the steps of The Royal Exchange in the heart of the City of London and you can picture the churn of people 200 years ago or more in what was becoming the world’s preeminent financial hub.
Tracy Chen, Portfolio Manager with Brandywine Global, and Tim Wang, Head of Investment Research for Clarion Partners, join Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, Stephen Dover, to take a closer look at how the pandemic has impacted real estate markets in the United States and China.
One of the fundamentals of basketball is that a player who has picked up his dribble can evade trouble by pivoting away from a defender.
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
Here is how I nudge clients (sometimes not so gently) to where they should be on their portfolio.
The reality is that despite media commentary to the contrary, debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the economic growth promised. As a result, the disappointment of economic and earnings growth over the next year is almost a guarantee.
In 2021, readers of the Investor Alert and Frank Talk were most interested in stories on gold mining, precious metals, natural resources and emerging markets (no surprise). But there was also interest in macroeconomic topics (inflation, mostly) as well as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
When the Fed initially starts hiking rates, it is usually during a strongly trending bull market. Much like a car rolling downhill in neutral, tapping the brakes initially doesn’t do much to curb the momentum. However, keep pushing on the brake pedal long enough, and the car will slow to stop. There are two things to take away from the chart below.
A Pittsburgh insurance broker and a Richmond, Virginia forensic accountant have developed an alternative rating system for measuring the ability of life/annuity companies to keep their promises even in market crises. They call it the transparency, surplus and riskier assets ratio, or “TSR” for short.
Die-hard dip buyers are bracing for even more volatility -- and bigger, more enticing dips -- in the run-up to Christmas.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Rick Rieder and team identify 11 themes that could drive returns in 2022, as the greatest monetary experiment since the advent of flat currency enters its next phase.
The Fed has made a sharp pivot by accelerating the tapering of its asset purchases.
“Wipe Out” is an appropriate description of what is happening beneath the calm surface of the bull market.
Capitalism’s death warrant was signed on March 19, 1968. That is when President Lyndon Johnson eliminated the requirement that the Federal Reserve back the U.S. dollar with gold reserves.
We have been reading a book written by David Carey and John Morris called King of Capital. It is the story of the Blackstone company and its key founder, Stephen Schwarzman. An economic history from the 1980s through today is included and lays out some excellent reminders of certain disciplines which can create wealth in picking public companies to invest in.
CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, sees fascinating and surprising investment opportunities arising in the emerging markets and China next year. Fed actions to manage inflation and the ongoing challenges of the pandemic will be important factors but the performance of markets may ultimately depend on the success of well-managed companies in key sectors.
We see attractive investment opportunities in California’s cap-and-trade carbon emissions market.
Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently discussed growth, inflation, interest rates, and valuation...
Investors in the booming ethical bond market are having to swallow short term losses on the road to improving their green credentials.
Going to all cash in your portfolio to avoid a crash can be just as costly as the crash itself. A recent CNBC article quoted a $200 billion money manager suggesting “every stock market investor should be ready to go to cash.”
The dollar is on the rise, and with it comes underappreciated consequences.
Last week’s What Really Caused Inflation letter generated an unusual number of questions and comments. That tells me I need to go a little deeper. We know inflation by the higher prices it generates, but exactly how it flows through the economy isn’t always obvious.
Some of the market’s recent pressures are showing signs of easing.
The Fed seems to have been caught by surprise by its own policy and says this is not the inflation it was looking for.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials have begun to debate when to start shrinking the central bank’s massive balance sheet, but their approach the last time they did this may not be the best way this time around.
In the ongoing discussion about liquidity and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), David Mann, Head of Global ETFs Capital Markets, examines a recent report outlining how ETFs have navigated the pandemic.
After what has been a torrid few weeks for crypto and traditional risk assets alike, we are beginning to enter what could be an important make or break point in time for crypto markets.
Research Affiliates discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation expectations, and explains their business cycle model and how it informs portfolio positions.
Insights from Franklin Templeton specialist investment managers Brandywine Global, Clarion Partners, ClearBridge Investments and Western Asset
2021 has been a year of notable economic growth after unexpected change caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In our Economic and Market Outlook for 2022, we lay out some of the “known unknowns” we believe could significantly affect the investing landscape...
In the depths of the lockdowns in March and April, we were together at home, day after day. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board pumped large amounts of liquidity in our economic system. The U.S. Federal Government followed by providing large amounts of fiscal stimulus in PPP loans...
Liquidity
Pending Home Sales Fell in December
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
The Crypto Crash Strengthens the Case for Crypto
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Where the Billions Pouring Into the Energy Transition Are Going
Energy transition investment follows familiar patterns in global capital markets. Large, established financial institutions supply hundreds of billions of dollars a year to finance construction of long-lived assets using familiar zero-carbon technologies — i.e., deployment.
Planning for ’22 with Lessons from ‘21
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
2022 Investment Grade Credit Outlook: Views on Risk Appetite, Rising Stars and Trends
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Volume Analysis Flash Update – Back to Support
In our 2022 Volume Analysis Outlook, the S&P 500 was fresh off new highs exceeding 4800.
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
Advising Young Widows: It’s Not Just About the Money
In my work with female clients in transition, some of the most difficult conversations are with those whose lives have been upended by the death of their spouses.
Why Banks' Balance Sheets Are in Better Shape
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Worried Traders Make Dash for Stock Liquidity as Selloff Worsens
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
Rate Hikes: The Fed Won’t Hike Nearly As Much As Expected
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
Bitcoin’s New Floor Is $30,000 as 50% Rout Destroys Old Supports
The world’s largest digital asset is mired in its sixth straight day of declines, with the token down roughly 20% over the past seven days. It’s now 50% below its November peak and was trading as low as $32,970 on Monday, the lowest since July.
Will the Fed Choose Financial Instability or Inflation?
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
2022 Municipal Bond Outlook: Views on Rates, Fundamentals and Infrastructure
The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.
ETF Trends to Watch in 2022: Conversions, International Interest and Sustainable Funds
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
Markets Tremble at Fed’s Unprecedented Double-Edged Tightening
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
How Proving Your Planning Value Upfront Boosts Prospect Conversion Rates
Since implementing new software, we’ve tripled our conversion rate with new prospects and dramatically shortened our sales cycle.
How Safe Assets Became Investors' Biggest Risk
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
Selling Out
Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”
“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.
Last Year's Saving Is This Year’s Spending
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
2022 Investment Outlook (Part 2) – Stocks and Bonds
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
Year of the Bookends
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
Return-Free Risk
In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.
Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
The SEC's Concern About Unicorns Misses the Point
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is worried about a lack of oversight in how large, private companies raise capital.
Powell Makes Case for Fed Curbing Inflation While Doing No Harm
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure lawmakers and investors on Tuesday that the central bank can pull off the tricky task of bringing down four-decade high inflation without damaging the U.S. economy.
The Fed’s Policy Tightening Plan: A One-Two Punch
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Inflation Is Here! What Now?
Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.
Investing in a Fast‑Moving Cycle
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
Speculative Mania – Was 2021 The Peak?
“Speculative” is a word that aptly sums up the year 2021.
Bitcoin Death Cross Is Staring Down Bulls After a Painful Retreat
After one of the roughest patches ever for Bitcoin enthusiasts, holders of the largest digital currency are facing an ominous technical price pattern with a name that suggests more pain ahead.
US Growth Has Peaked Inflation Will Persist
Long before supply chain issues and soaring consumer prices made the headlines, I warned readers that massive monetary expansion made persistent inflation inevitable.
How the Fed is Saving Money Market Funds
By expanding its use of reverse repurchase agreements to nearly $1.6 trillion, the Fed has kept money market funds solvent and prevented a systemic failure.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Up Slightly in December
The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.
Bitcoin Is Off to Its Worst Annual Start Since the Dawn of Crypto
Bitcoin dipped below $40,000 for the first time since September, putting it on pace for its worst start to a year since the earliest days of the digital alternative to money.
Volume Analysis January 2022
Contemplating a new year ahead, you may be wondering…what is going to happen?
2022 Bank Loans Outlook: Views on Demand, Defaults and Transitioning to SOFR
Leveraged loan supply and demand experienced a banner year in 2021.
Crypto Market Outlook: A Potential Bounce May Be Imminent
What has been a tumultuous last few months for crypto markets has only accelerated through the turn of the New Year.
The 2022 Outlook Part 1 - Tailwinds Shift to Headwinds
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
A Path-Dependent Year—WWJD?
Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead.
Commodities Notched Their Best Year Since 2009, Despite Precious Metals Weakness
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
Too Much Cash Is Not A Good Thing
Excess cash has accumulated in every corner of the economy.
The Great Resignation: Has it Increased the Risk That Comes From Portfolio Manager Exits?
Talent is quitting. And new talent is hard to hire.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Euro Markets Will Stand Out in 2022
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
Bitcoin-at-$100,000 Calls Become Uncomfortable After Pullback
Bitcoin’s getting a drubbing this week as the Federal Reserve readies a removal of stimulus, but bulls are feeling as emboldened as ever.
Debate Emerges Over How to Shrink Fed’s $8 Trillion Bond Pile
Federal Reserve officials have begun debating how to approach shrinking a stockpile of more than $8 trillion of bonds as a key element of a policy-normalization campaign in the wake of unprecedented moves to shore up the economy during the pandemic.
Emerging-Market Debt Outlook: Mixed Conditions in 2022
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
K2 Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: First Quarter 2022
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
The Great Gold Love Trade Is Alive And Well, As India Buys A Record Amount
India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.
The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
Growth Cycle Outlook: 2022 Will Not be 2021
Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.
Inflation Menace vs Pandemic Recovery: Central Bank Guide for 2022
Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth.
Bad News, London and New York: Finance Hubs Are Becoming Obsolete
Stand on the steps of The Royal Exchange in the heart of the City of London and you can picture the churn of people 200 years ago or more in what was becoming the world’s preeminent financial hub.
A Tale of Two Real Estate Markets: US and China
Tracy Chen, Portfolio Manager with Brandywine Global, and Tim Wang, Head of Investment Research for Clarion Partners, join Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, Stephen Dover, to take a closer look at how the pandemic has impacted real estate markets in the United States and China.
The Powell Pivot
One of the fundamentals of basketball is that a player who has picked up his dribble can evade trouble by pivoting away from a defender.
2022 International Bonds Outlook: Neutral, for Now
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
The 10 Toughest Client Objections to Overcome
Here is how I nudge clients (sometimes not so gently) to where they should be on their portfolio.
Small Caps Could Be In Trouble In 2022
The reality is that despite media commentary to the contrary, debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the economic growth promised. As a result, the disappointment of economic and earnings growth over the next year is almost a guarantee.
These Were the Biggest Investment Stories of 2021
In 2021, readers of the Investor Alert and Frank Talk were most interested in stories on gold mining, precious metals, natural resources and emerging markets (no surprise). But there was also interest in macroeconomic topics (inflation, mostly) as well as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
The Biggest Risk To Stocks Is Not The Fed
When the Fed initially starts hiking rates, it is usually during a strongly trending bull market. Much like a car rolling downhill in neutral, tapping the brakes initially doesn’t do much to curb the momentum. However, keep pushing on the brake pedal long enough, and the car will slow to stop. There are two things to take away from the chart below.
A Revolt Against PE-Led Annuity Issuers
A Pittsburgh insurance broker and a Richmond, Virginia forensic accountant have developed an alternative rating system for measuring the ability of life/annuity companies to keep their promises even in market crises. They call it the transparency, surplus and riskier assets ratio, or “TSR” for short.
Christmas 2018 Again? Market Veterans Wait to Buy Bigger Dip
Die-hard dip buyers are bracing for even more volatility -- and bigger, more enticing dips -- in the run-up to Christmas.
NewsLetter - December 2021
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Making Money When They Stop Making Money
Rick Rieder and team identify 11 themes that could drive returns in 2022, as the greatest monetary experiment since the advent of flat currency enters its next phase.
The Fed Picks Up The Pace
The Fed has made a sharp pivot by accelerating the tapering of its asset purchases.
“Wipe Out” Below The Calm Surface Of The Bull Market
“Wipe Out” is an appropriate description of what is happening beneath the calm surface of the bull market.
When Capitalism Died, And How Creditism Replaced It
Capitalism’s death warrant was signed on March 19, 1968. That is when President Lyndon Johnson eliminated the requirement that the Federal Reserve back the U.S. dollar with gold reserves.
Lessons From the King of Capital
We have been reading a book written by David Carey and John Morris called King of Capital. It is the story of the Blackstone company and its key founder, Stephen Schwarzman. An economic history from the 1980s through today is included and lays out some excellent reminders of certain disciplines which can create wealth in picking public companies to invest in.
CIO Outlook—Buckling Up for 2022
CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, sees fascinating and surprising investment opportunities arising in the emerging markets and China next year. Fed actions to manage inflation and the ongoing challenges of the pandemic will be important factors but the performance of markets may ultimately depend on the success of well-managed companies in key sectors.
Carbon Cap‑and‑Trade: We See a Compelling Opportunity
We see attractive investment opportunities in California’s cap-and-trade carbon emissions market.
Quick Thoughts: What Our Managers Think: Positioning Portfolios for 2022
Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently discussed growth, inflation, interest rates, and valuation...
ESG Debt Buyers Swallow Short-Term Losses to Gain Ethical Kudos
Investors in the booming ethical bond market are having to swallow short term losses on the road to improving their green credentials.
Going To Cash Can Be As Costly As A Market Crash
Going to all cash in your portfolio to avoid a crash can be just as costly as the crash itself. A recent CNBC article quoted a $200 billion money manager suggesting “every stock market investor should be ready to go to cash.”
A Strong Dollar is Threatening the Global Economy
The dollar is on the rise, and with it comes underappreciated consequences.
Inflation by the Numbers
Last week’s What Really Caused Inflation letter generated an unusual number of questions and comments. That tells me I need to go a little deeper. We know inflation by the higher prices it generates, but exactly how it flows through the economy isn’t always obvious.
Schwab Market Perspective: Why 2022 May Be a Better Year
Some of the market’s recent pressures are showing signs of easing.
On My Mind: Fed and Inflation: You Can’t Always Get What You Want
The Fed seems to have been caught by surprise by its own policy and says this is not the inflation it was looking for.
Powell Says Balance-Sheet Debate Underway, But This Time Is Different
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials have begun to debate when to start shrinking the central bank’s massive balance sheet, but their approach the last time they did this may not be the best way this time around.
The Liquidity Unicorn: Are any ETFs Truly Bulletproof During Market Stress?
In the ongoing discussion about liquidity and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), David Mann, Head of Global ETFs Capital Markets, examines a recent report outlining how ETFs have navigated the pandemic.
Crypto Market Outlook: Nearing A Make Or Break Moment
After what has been a torrid few weeks for crypto and traditional risk assets alike, we are beginning to enter what could be an important make or break point in time for crypto markets.
All Asset All Access: Investment Implications of Inflation Expectations
Research Affiliates discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation expectations, and explains their business cycle model and how it informs portfolio positions.
2022 Market Outlooks on Equites, Fixed Income, Real Estate
Insights from Franklin Templeton specialist investment managers Brandywine Global, Clarion Partners, ClearBridge Investments and Western Asset
2022 Economic & Market Outlook
2021 has been a year of notable economic growth after unexpected change caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In our Economic and Market Outlook for 2022, we lay out some of the “known unknowns” we believe could significantly affect the investing landscape...
No Doubt Investors
In the depths of the lockdowns in March and April, we were together at home, day after day. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board pumped large amounts of liquidity in our economic system. The U.S. Federal Government followed by providing large amounts of fiscal stimulus in PPP loans...