The S&P 500 retreated on Friday from its record high set the previous day.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 11, 2025 at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.96%.
Young Americans are having trouble becoming fully independent adults. Millennials, who were long ridiculed for being boomerang kids who scurried back to mom and dad’s basement after leaving the security blanket of college, know a thing or two about that.
Three ETF strategies that launched in June stand out, bringing something interesting to the table for investors.
The valuation of small-cap stocks relative to large caps remains historically attractive, and small-cap recoveries in the past have resulted in meaningful periods of outperformance.
Compelling bond yields and diverging equity returns offer building blocks for effective strategies.
One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
After mid-level performance in Q1, financials sector earnings are seen slowing in Q2, according to analysts, though favorable signs like the yield curve could help margins.
Franklin Mutual Series shares its mid-year outlook, focusing on corporate fundamentals as a catalyst to unlock value in the midst of ongoing market volatility.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
In the week ending July 5th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 236,000 forecast.
The Treasury market rallied after an auction of 10-year notes drew strong demand, easing concerns that investors will balk at financing swelling US deficits.
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.
Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of June, the labor force participation rate is at 62.3%, down from 62.4% the previous month.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
The artificial intelligence investment landscape reached a critical inflection point in Q2 2025, with the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) delivering exceptional returns of 24.4%.
Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.
Are interest rates too high? A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
Elevated interest rates and market uncertainty make for an interesting tandem regarding getting core bond exposure. When considering yield, reinforcing a portfolio to absorb market shocks, or both, consider this active option from Vanguard: the Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS).
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.
Gas prices fell for a second straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly a month. As of July 7th, the price of regular gas was down 4 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
They have been called “the four most costly words in the annals of investing,” and surely that’s true: This time is different. Still — hear me out! — there are reasons to entertain the possibility that, well, this time really is different.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.
As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.
This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.
In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was unanimous (or nearly so) that there was good news to celebrate.
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.3% of civilian employment in June.
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Last week, the U.S. labor market took center stage, delivering conflicting signals. The S&P 500 reached many record highs during the shortened trading week.
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.
Do you feel like you spend more and more money every month but get less and less for it? That’s because you are.
Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
As President Donald Trump and his advisers begin weighing replacements for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they’re running into one significant complication: It’s not clear that Powell will leave the US central bank next year.
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
If the Trump administration’s tariff policies result in higher overall inflation, a scenario that will play out in the coming weeks, the question is who will pay for it.
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
The latest employment report showed that 147,000 jobs were added in June, up from 144,000 in May and higher than the expected 111,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
The ADP employment report revealed that 33,000 nonfarm private jobs were unexpectedly lost in June, down from the 29,000 addition in May. This is the first monthly reduction since March 2023 when there was a decline of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 99,000 addition.
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Treasuries are set for a second daily drop heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers.
The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.
Netflix Inc. investors face a dilemma: Continue to bet on a stock that has delivered best-in-class returns over the past year or reconsider shares that increasingly look like they’re priced for perfection.
India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
Economic Insights
S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Retreats From Record High
The S&P 500 retreated on Friday from its record high set the previous day.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 11, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 11, 2025 at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.96%.
Are Parents Ready to Keep the Bank of Mom and Dad Open?
Young Americans are having trouble becoming fully independent adults. Millennials, who were long ridiculed for being boomerang kids who scurried back to mom and dad’s basement after leaving the security blanket of college, know a thing or two about that.
June 2025’s Most Innovative ETF Launches
Three ETF strategies that launched in June stand out, bringing something interesting to the table for investors.
Are Small Caps Next in Line to Shine?
The valuation of small-cap stocks relative to large caps remains historically attractive, and small-cap recoveries in the past have resulted in meaningful periods of outperformance.
Multi-Asset Income Midyear Outlook: Income and Resilience Among the Bumps
Compelling bond yields and diverging equity returns offer building blocks for effective strategies.
No Rate Cut for You…At Least Not Yet
One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
Q2 Bank Earnings Preview: A Dimmer Light?
After mid-level performance in Q1, financials sector earnings are seen slowing in Q2, according to analysts, though favorable signs like the yield curve could help margins.
Fundamentals Are a Lighthouse in the Storm
Franklin Mutual Series shares its mid-year outlook, focusing on corporate fundamentals as a catalyst to unlock value in the midst of ongoing market volatility.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades: June 2025
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: June 2025
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending July 5th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 236,000 forecast.
US Treasuries Jump as Strong Auction Calms Investor Jitters
The Treasury market rallied after an auction of 10-year notes drew strong demand, easing concerns that investors will balk at financing swelling US deficits.
At the Midway Point: Returning to the Fundamentals
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
Midyear Commodity Outlook: Better for Commodities than Consumers
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
Emerging Markets Insights: Seeking Clarity on Tariffs
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
Charting Commodity Markets
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
Non-U.S. Investing In a Fragmenting World
Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.
Late 2021 Speculation is Back
Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: June 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of June, the labor force participation rate is at 62.3%, down from 62.4% the previous month.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: June 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
AI Posts Strong Q2 Returns as Inference Economy Takes Hold
The artificial intelligence investment landscape reached a critical inflection point in Q2 2025, with the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) delivering exceptional returns of 24.4%.
2025 Market Review & Mid-Year Market Outlook: Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty
Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.
Are Interest Rates Too High?
Are interest rates too high? A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
Defense, Yield, or Both? An Active Bond ETF for Any Market
Elevated interest rates and market uncertainty make for an interesting tandem regarding getting core bond exposure. When considering yield, reinforcing a portfolio to absorb market shocks, or both, consider this active option from Vanguard: the Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS).
Outperformance in Extraordinary Times
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
Jobs Report Better Than Feared
The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.
Gas Prices Fall for Second Straight Week
Gas prices fell for a second straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly a month. As of July 7th, the price of regular gas was down 4 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
Wall Street Is Wrong on Airlines: Americans Are Flying Like Never Before
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
Equities Enter Slightly Calmer Waters
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
What If This Time Really Is Different for Investors?
They have been called “the four most costly words in the annals of investing,” and surely that’s true: This time is different. Still — hear me out! — there are reasons to entertain the possibility that, well, this time really is different.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Remains Steady While Uncertainty Falls
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
A Solid Quarter Signals Promising Potential
It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.
Multi-Asset Midyear Outlook: Selectivity Matters
As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.
Fixed Income In Focus: 2025 Mid-Year Recap
This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.
Not So Hot
In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was unanimous (or nearly so) that there was good news to celebrate.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2025
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of Workers in June 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.3% of civilian employment in June.
Behind the Meter Solutions Investing Guide
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: June 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Weekly Economic Snapshot: The Labor Market’s Conflicting Signals
Last week, the U.S. labor market took center stage, delivering conflicting signals. The S&P 500 reached many record highs during the shortened trading week.
At The Crossroads
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
Mid-Year Themes
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
The Bull Market is Alive and Well
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Need Income? Europe’s Commercial Real Estate Debt is Worth a Look
Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.
Growth Equity Portfolio Second Quarter Review June 30, 2025
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
Quantstreet July 2025 Letter: Geopolitics and Markets
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
Lessons From the Past, Strategies for the Future
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
Quick Thoughts: The Global Reset
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
Easy Money? Rate Cuts May Not Ease Borrowing Costs
Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.
Price Inflation Accounts for Entire Increase in Retail Sales Since Pandemic
Do you feel like you spend more and more money every month but get less and less for it? That’s because you are.
Getting a Grip on Uncertainty
Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.
Senate Approves Revised Tax and Spending Bill
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
Powell Silence on His Future Complicates Trump Fed Chair Search
As President Donald Trump and his advisers begin weighing replacements for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they’re running into one significant complication: It’s not clear that Powell will leave the US central bank next year.
Private Credit Outlook: Five Lessons Learned
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: June Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
ISM Services PMI Returns to Expansion Territory in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Bond Traders Scrap Bets on July Rate Cut After Strong Jobs Data
Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
The Surprising Tariff Lesson Buried in Inflation Data
If the Trump administration’s tariff policies result in higher overall inflation, a scenario that will play out in the coming weeks, the question is who will pay for it.
Today’s Housing Math Favors Buying — Even in Austin
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Employment Report: 147K Jobs Added in June, More Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 147,000 jobs were added in June, up from 144,000 in May and higher than the expected 111,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
Energy: Global Excess or Shortage of Power?
Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.
Under the Macroscope: Why Cutting the SLR Matters
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity Markets Found Traction in June
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
A Lesson From Recent History
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
India's Incomplete Growth
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
Markets Soar on Rate Cut Hopes, Job Strength
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Expanding the Field
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
VOO Still Heavyweight ETF Champ & Other 1st Half Trends
With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.
Balancing Act: Building Resilient Portfolios in a Changing Landscape
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
The Lasting Impact of the COVID M2 Surge: Why Diversification Is More Crucial Than Ever
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2025
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of June 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2025 close.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: June 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: June 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Expand Your Mind and Your Commodity Universe
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
ADP National Employment Report: 33K Private Jobs Unexpectedly Lost in June
The ADP employment report revealed that 33,000 nonfarm private jobs were unexpectedly lost in June, down from the 29,000 addition in May. This is the first monthly reduction since March 2023 when there was a decline of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 99,000 addition.
Equity Outlook: Applying Timeless Insights for Volatile Times Ahead
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - June 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Treasuries Fall for Second Day With Focus on US Jobs Numbers
Treasuries are set for a second daily drop heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers.
Stocks Slip From Highs as Senate Marathon Persists
The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.
Netflix’s Lofty Valuation Has Even Bullish Investors Nervous
Netflix Inc. investors face a dilemma: Continue to bet on a stock that has delivered best-in-class returns over the past year or reconsider shares that increasingly look like they’re priced for perfection.
Are Foreigners Changing Their Minds on India?
India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio
Prevailing Skepticism Means Rally Has More Room
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
Rethinking U.S. Infrastructure Investment
Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.
Iran Conflict Equity Implications
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.