According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
Concerns around high equity valuations and rising asset prices are finally manifesting. In this webinar, Richard Bernstein will examine the critical shift in the markets - focusing on the anti-tech trade, cyclicals, consumer staples and other areas where RBA is finding opportunities and isolating risks.
At Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) we employ a disciplined, top-down approach – we generate alpha by uncovering global investment styles and themes where we believe there are disparities between fundamentals and sentiment. And in current markets, disparities are large.
We seek to beat the market through individual stock selection. We are focused on fundamentals – with particular emphasis on corporate profit cycles rather than economic cycles.
Mr. Bernstein, CEO/CIO of RBA will be addressing key areas that will be important for you and your clients:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
The latest index came in at 24, up from 22 last month, indicating steady continued expansion in January. The future outlook rose to 37. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The Nasdaq will go into bear market territory and the S&P 500 will suffer a correction, according to Jeremy Siegel.
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Bonds tumbled across the world on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest hawkish pivot, with yields from Wellington to London breaching multi-year highs.
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
The Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places), an increase from 2.3% (2.30% to two decimal places) for the Q3 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 5.5%.
The Fed stayed the course today, with no change in the Fed Funds rate, no adjustment to the pace of tapering, no shift in the timeline for raising rates, and no indication that they intend to lift rates in larger steps.
ICYMI: In this roundup, we’re highlighting the five most popular pieces of content from the previous week.
This morning's release of the December New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 811K, up 11.9% month-over-month from a downwardly revised 725K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 760K. The median home price is now at $377.7K.
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%.
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Investors have been taking refuge from the Chinese real estate debt crisis in pockets of the broader Asian credit market, and cite India among opportunities that are relatively insulated from the historic turmoil.
Insights into the economy can be found in surprising places. In a brothel, for instance, how services are priced and who ends up working there can reveal a lot about the state of the business cycle. It also reflects structural changes in our economy and society.
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 16 in December to 8 in January and indicates expansion.
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.2% in November and up 8.4% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
As of January 24, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cent(s) each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.63 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.31 and is down 1.8% from last week.
We've updated this series to include the December release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $45,503, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +12.3% (+29.2 billion vehicle miles) for November 2021 as compared with November 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.92% month-over-month and up 9.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.88% month-over-month and up 9.1% year-over-year.
When fourth quarter GDP data is released later this week, it will show that 2021 finished on a high note.
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
Surging markets spurred a buying frenzy for everything from stocks and cryptocurrencies to new homes over the last two years. Now, with inflation at a nearly 40-year high and at least three priced-in rate hikes, the hunt for investing safe havens is on.
U.S. wages are rising after decades of stagnation. And yet, by all indications, income inequality in the U.S. is the highest ever and growing, and tens of millions of full-time workers still fail to earn a living wage.
In what even the U.S. Treasury says will be a frustrating tax season, families claiming the child tax credit and newly self-employed Americans are among filers likely to see the biggest challenges this year.
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
The world’s largest digital asset is mired in its sixth straight day of declines, with the token down roughly 20% over the past seven days. It’s now 50% below its November peak and was trading as low as $32,970 on Monday, the lowest since July.
After a tumultuous data deluge over the last two years, 2022 may begin to see the economic silt settling a bit, even as the waves of reaction to uncertainties continue. Check out our 2022 Investment Outlook covering the Housing Market, Interest Rates, Fiscal Stimulus, Inflation, & Market Returns.
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
To reap the potential tax benefits of MLP investing and to make sure the allocation is meeting an investor’s needs, it’s important to understand the nuances of MLP investing.
Join our on-demand panel discussions with portfolio managers from all five of our affiliates exploring inflation and monetary policy, lessons from the supply chain breakdown, themes and opportunities in sustainable investing, opportunities in international investing, what’s next in growth vs. value, and what structural changes are here to stay.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The S&P 500 spent the short holiday week declining, ending down 5.68% from last Friday. The index is 8.3% below its record close and down 7.73% YTD.
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 156.8, down 0.4 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at 3.5, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at 6.06%, down from last week.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was up 0.8% from the November final figure of 119.9. Annual revisions were made.
The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.
December's ZHVI came in at $320,662, up 1.4% from the previous month and up 19.6% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.97% MoM and 15.2% YoY.
For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.2, up 7.8 from last month's 15.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 25.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 28.7, up 9.7 from the previous month's 19.
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
The head of the Bank for International Settlements, Agustin Carstens, recently set out a dark vision for our financial future, quoting Goethe’s “Faust” and claiming that the “soul” of money was at stake.
Applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance surged last week to a three-month high, suggesting that the omicron variant is having a bigger impact on the labor market.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims, down 30K from the previous week's figure, was at the Investing.com forecast.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 0.93% month-over-month.
The webcast will explore the impact of inflation on fixed income investments and potential inflation hedges from non-traditional sources.
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan is stalled, and the next steps are unclear. Some Democrats are talking about the need for new pandemic-relief measures, even as the White House is reportedly looking at a stripped-down version of the original proposal. Meanwhile, most analysts are giving short shrift to an issue that deserves more thought: how Build Back Better would make it harder to fight inflation.
Walk into a U.S. supermarket, and chances are you’ll see some empty shelves once more. It’s an unwelcome throwback to earlier stages of the pandemic.
A booming $4.9 trillion branch of the U.S. asset management industry is funneling investor cash into funds that are pricier and worse-performing than alternatives, new research claims.
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
With more than 12,000 crypto assets in existence and the potential to power decentralized transactions using blockchain technologies, crypto assets are a new and evolving approach to capturing highly sought-after benefits. Together with renowned index provider Nasdaq, Inc. and crypto-focused asset manager Hashdex Asset Management Ltd., Victory Capital has created a way for investors to gain broad-based market exposure to an emerging asset class for a relatively low cost and without lockups.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981.
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Treasuries slid and yield-curve premiums shrank to the lowest in almost two years amid increased speculation the Federal Reserve will deliver more than a quarter-percentage point rate hike in March.
Many of us fantasize about quitting our jobs. In 2021, more people than ever turned that dream into reality. The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that 4.53 million Americans voluntarily left their jobs last November. This was both a new monthly record and the eighth successive reading above the pre-pandemic high.
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -0.7 was a decrease of 32.6 from the previous month's 31.9. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 25.7.
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
In 1837, as in 2022, there was general certainty that prices were determined by the money supply – the quantity of legal tender circulating in the economy.
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
Economic Insights
Grow Your Clients’ Wealth With Private Real Estate
According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
Richard Bernstein: Valuations Matter and How to Reposition Allocations
Concerns around high equity valuations and rising asset prices are finally manifesting. In this webinar, Richard Bernstein will examine the critical shift in the markets - focusing on the anti-tech trade, cyclicals, consumer staples and other areas where RBA is finding opportunities and isolating risks.
At Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) we employ a disciplined, top-down approach – we generate alpha by uncovering global investment styles and themes where we believe there are disparities between fundamentals and sentiment. And in current markets, disparities are large.
We seek to beat the market through individual stock selection. We are focused on fundamentals – with particular emphasis on corporate profit cycles rather than economic cycles.
Mr. Bernstein, CEO/CIO of RBA will be addressing key areas that will be important for you and your clients:
Fed’s Message: Get Ready
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
The Fed’s Road to Full Normalization
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Expanded in January
The latest index came in at 24, up from 22 last month, indicating steady continued expansion in January. The future outlook rose to 37. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Jeremy Siegel: Bear Market for Nasdaq; Correction for S&P
The Nasdaq will go into bear market territory and the S&P 500 will suffer a correction, according to Jeremy Siegel.
Inflation Will Hurt Both Stocks and Bonds
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
Pending Home Sales Fell in December
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
Global Economic Outlook: Touch And Go
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The Crypto Crash Strengthens the Case for Crypto
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Fed Fallout Triggers Global Yield Spike as Tighter Policy Looms
Bonds tumbled across the world on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest hawkish pivot, with yields from Wellington to London breaching multi-year highs.
Value Stocks, U.S. Dollar Among Top Trades After Hawkish Fed
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
U.S. Economic Growth Quickened Last Quarter With Inventory Boost
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 6.89%, Beats Forecast
The Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places), an increase from 2.3% (2.30% to two decimal places) for the Q3 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 5.5%.
Liftoff in March
The Fed stayed the course today, with no change in the Fed Funds rate, no adjustment to the pace of tapering, no shift in the timeline for raising rates, and no indication that they intend to lift rates in larger steps.
Wednesday's Weekly Perspective: January 26, 2022
ICYMI: In this roundup, we’re highlighting the five most popular pieces of content from the previous week.
New Home Sales Up 11.9% in December
This morning's release of the December New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 811K, up 11.9% month-over-month from a downwardly revised 725K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 760K. The median home price is now at $377.7K.
Planning for ’22 with Lessons from ‘21
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Investment Strategy Commentary: Market Pullback
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Precautionary Stockpiling and Its Impact on Growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
Why Has the Chinese Yuan Been So Strong, Will it Last, and What Does it Mean for the US?
Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%.
Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
2022 Investment Grade Credit Outlook: Views on Risk Appetite, Rising Stars and Trends
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Market Crash Hands Defeat to Traders Who Warred With Wall Street
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Where Investors Fleeing Chinese Property Are Putting Their Money
Investors have been taking refuge from the Chinese real estate debt crisis in pockets of the broader Asian credit market, and cite India among opportunities that are relatively insulated from the historic turmoil.
Men Are Getting Left Behind in the Jobs Boom
Insights into the economy can be found in surprising places. In a brothel, for instance, how services are priced and who ends up working there can reveal a lot about the state of the business cycle. It also reflects structural changes in our economy and society.
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
Consumer Confidence Fell in January
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Activity Softened in January
Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 16 in December to 8 in January and indicates expansion.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 18.8% YoY
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up Another 1.1% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.2% in November and up 8.4% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Down 1.8%
As of January 24, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cent(s) each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.63 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.31 and is down 1.8% from last week.
Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of December 2021
We've updated this series to include the December release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $45,503, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
America's Driving Habits as of November 2021
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +12.3% (+29.2 billion vehicle miles) for November 2021 as compared with November 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.92% month-over-month and up 9.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.88% month-over-month and up 9.1% year-over-year.
The 2021 Finish: Fast Growth, High Inflation
When fourth quarter GDP data is released later this week, it will show that 2021 finished on a high note.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in December"
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
Real Estate Is Emerging as a Hedge Against Roaring Inflation
Surging markets spurred a buying frenzy for everything from stocks and cryptocurrencies to new homes over the last two years. Now, with inflation at a nearly 40-year high and at least three priced-in rate hikes, the hunt for investing safe havens is on.
Path to a Living Wage Starts With Companies’ Full Disclosure
U.S. wages are rising after decades of stagnation. And yet, by all indications, income inequality in the U.S. is the highest ever and growing, and tens of millions of full-time workers still fail to earn a living wage.
‘Disappointing Tax Season’ Points Toward Smaller, Later Refunds
In what even the U.S. Treasury says will be a frustrating tax season, families claiming the child tax credit and newly self-employed Americans are among filers likely to see the biggest challenges this year.
Worried Traders Make Dash for Stock Liquidity as Selloff Worsens
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
Supply Side Problems Persist
“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.
Rate Hikes: The Fed Won’t Hike Nearly As Much As Expected
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
Bitcoin’s New Floor Is $30,000 as 50% Rout Destroys Old Supports
The world’s largest digital asset is mired in its sixth straight day of declines, with the token down roughly 20% over the past seven days. It’s now 50% below its November peak and was trading as low as $32,970 on Monday, the lowest since July.
AAM Has Released Its 2022 Best Ideas and Investment Outlook
After a tumultuous data deluge over the last two years, 2022 may begin to see the economic silt settling a bit, even as the waves of reaction to uncertainties continue. Check out our 2022 Investment Outlook covering the Housing Market, Interest Rates, Fiscal Stimulus, Inflation, & Market Returns.
Will the Fed Choose Financial Instability or Inflation?
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
The ABCs of MLPs: Selecting the Best Product for Your Client
To reap the potential tax benefits of MLP investing and to make sure the allocation is meeting an investor’s needs, it’s important to understand the nuances of MLP investing.
Partner Perspectives 2022 Annual Outlook
Join our on-demand panel discussions with portfolio managers from all five of our affiliates exploring inflation and monetary policy, lessons from the supply chain breakdown, themes and opportunities in sustainable investing, opportunities in international investing, what’s next in growth vs. value, and what structural changes are here to stay.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
S&P 500 Snapshot: A Week of Losses
The S&P 500 spent the short holiday week declining, ending down 5.68% from last Friday. The index is 8.3% below its record close and down 7.73% YTD.
Gasoline Volume Sales Down 8.9% YoY
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.75%
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
Weekly Market Snapshot
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 156.8, down 0.4 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at 3.5, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at 6.06%, down from last week.
CB LEI: Rising Trajectory Continues in December
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was up 0.8% from the November final figure of 119.9. Annual revisions were made.
Don’t Panic About Interest Rates
The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.
Zillow Home Value Index: Low Inventory in December, Growing Prices
December's ZHVI came in at $320,662, up 1.4% from the previous month and up 19.6% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.97% MoM and 15.2% YoY.
China’s Economy in the Year of the Tiger
For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.
Let The Wild Rumpus Begin
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 6% from November and 8.3% YoY
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Growth Continues
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.2, up 7.8 from last month's 15.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 25.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 28.7, up 9.7 from the previous month's 19.
Markets Tremble at Fed’s Unprecedented Double-Edged Tightening
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Central Banks Face a Moment of Truth on Crypto
The head of the Bank for International Settlements, Agustin Carstens, recently set out a dark vision for our financial future, quoting Goethe’s “Faust” and claiming that the “soul” of money was at stake.
U.S. Jobless Claims Surge to Three-Month High on Omicron Impact
Applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance surged last week to a three-month high, suggesting that the omicron variant is having a bigger impact on the labor market.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 30K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims, down 30K from the previous week's figure, was at the Investing.com forecast.
Margin Debt: Down 0.93% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 0.93% month-over-month.
Combat the Potential Perils of High Inflation with ASYMmetric Returns
The webcast will explore the impact of inflation on fixed income investments and potential inflation hedges from non-traditional sources.
Battered Clean Energy Stocks May Soon Recover
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
Build Back Better Would Make It Harder to Fight Inflation
President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan is stalled, and the next steps are unclear. Some Democrats are talking about the need for new pandemic-relief measures, even as the White House is reportedly looking at a stripped-down version of the original proposal. Meanwhile, most analysts are giving short shrift to an issue that deserves more thought: how Build Back Better would make it harder to fight inflation.
Why Are U.S. Grocery Shelves Out of Everything Again?
Walk into a U.S. supermarket, and chances are you’ll see some empty shelves once more. It’s an unwelcome throwback to earlier stages of the pandemic.
Wall Street’s ‘Model Portfolio’ Boom Gets Slammed in New Paper
A booming $4.9 trillion branch of the U.S. asset management industry is funneling investor cash into funds that are pricier and worse-performing than alternatives, new research claims.
The 2022 List Issue, Part 5: 4 Steps for Non-Profit Fiduciaries to Consider This Year
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
What Do Rising Rates Mean for Stock Investors?
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
A Private Fund to Invest in Cryptocurrencies
With more than 12,000 crypto assets in existence and the potential to power decentralized transactions using blockchain technologies, crypto assets are a new and evolving approach to capturing highly sought-after benefits. Together with renowned index provider Nasdaq, Inc. and crypto-focused asset manager Hashdex Asset Management Ltd., Victory Capital has created a way for investors to gain broad-based market exposure to an emerging asset class for a relatively low cost and without lockups.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
Weekly Investment Strategy
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
Who Gets the Blame for Inflation
Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981.
2022 Global Credit Outlook: Views on Growth, the ECB and ESG Investing
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Traders Weigh Bigger Fed Rate Hike in March as U.S. Yields Soar
Treasuries slid and yield-curve premiums shrank to the lowest in almost two years amid increased speculation the Federal Reserve will deliver more than a quarter-percentage point rate hike in March.
Can You Afford to Join the Great Resignation?
Many of us fantasize about quitting our jobs. In 2021, more people than ever turned that dream into reality. The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that 4.53 million Americans voluntarily left their jobs last November. This was both a new monthly record and the eighth successive reading above the pre-pandemic high.
How Safe Assets Became Investors' Biggest Risk
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
Deep Analytic Market Insights for 2021
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Leveled Off
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -0.7 was a decrease of 32.6 from the previous month's 31.9. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 25.7.
2022 Investment Outlook (Part 2) – Stocks and Bonds
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
Andrew Jackson Shortens the Credit Chain
In 1837, as in 2022, there was general certainty that prices were determined by the money supply – the quantity of legal tender circulating in the economy.
Consider the Humble Shipping Container
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Year of the Bookends
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Down 2.4%
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.