The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 29, the index was at 32.851, up 1.819 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
This series has been updated to include the November release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,510, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
US consumer prices rose at a firm pace in November that was in line with expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
US Treasuries gained and traders boosted their bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction next week after a report showed consumer prices last month accelerated in line with expectations.
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
The Santa Claus rally that started a few weeks back continued as the market logged its 53rd record high for 2024. While the Scrooges bemoaned inflation and tariffs, other investors embraced the strong economic data and loaded their sleds with market returns.
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
A bout of selling buffeted crypto as the optimism sparked by President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the sector begins to cool.
When the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle ends, should the neutral rate be far higher than pre-pandemic? Not in our view.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin discussed the ouster of France’s prime minister and the potential market implications. He also provided an update on the health of the U.S. economy.
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
Why hasn’t tighter monetary policy caused a recession? One reason: federal budget deficits have been huge.
Last week we processed robust economic data and growing clarity on Federal Reserve policy, instilling a consensus view for a strong market that is now well reflected in positioning.
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
The S&P 500 finished the week ending December 6 with solid gains, up 0.96% from last Friday. The index closed right at a record high and is now up 28.41% year-to-date.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. November saw a 227,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rose to 4.2%.
Consumer sentiment continued to rise, according to the preliminary December report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 3.1 points (3.1%) from November's final reading to 74.0. The latest reading was below the forecast of 73.1.
The latest employment report showed 227,000 jobs were added in November, above forecasts of the expected addition of 202,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
The next few years are set to see a significant expansion in global LNG export capacity, led by North America and Qatar.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.1, worse than the forecast of 55.5. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 51st time in the past 54 months.
Bitcoin has shot up more than 40% since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, in part on hopes that he’ll champion a government reserve devoted entirely to the cryptocurrency.
The passive-investing juggernaut is picking up speed — and it’s stirring up fresh angst about the dangers posed by the index-tracking boom across Wall Street.
Bond traders seeking support for bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month will closely watch Friday’s US employment report for November.
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
The explosive growth of the ETF industry has attracted a full range of new entrants this year — from smaller individuals to the largest hedge funds in the world. More and more fund managers are making their foray into the world of ETFs.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.3%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in July 2024. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,236 for an annualized real return of 10.94%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of November 29, it was 4.18%.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on the November S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.6 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings increased in October, reflecting more hiring. Vacancies increased to 7.744 million in October from September's downwardly revised level of 7.372 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.510 million vacancies.
Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 183% above its long-term trend, up from October.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
In the week ending November 30th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 224,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 215,000.
President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator lifted Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time as traders warmed to the prospect of relaxed regulations.
Since its enactment in 2022, the Chips and Science Act — a $280 billion splurge intended to revive US semiconductor manufacturing — has been at best a mixed success. A $7.9 billion grant to Intel Corp., announced by President Joe Biden’s administration last week, shows how this gravy train may be headed off the rails.
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the prospects of tension with the incoming Trump administration and said he expects officials can move cautiously as they continue lowering interest rates.
Dan Suzuki analyzes current and historical trends in investors' stock, bond, and cash holdings to assess whether this "cash on the sidelines" narrative could be a valid catalyst for pushing the stock market to new highs.
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
Next week’s European Central Bank meeting is more important than it might first appear.
The trend is your friend. Or, in Larry Fink’s case, your primary acquisition tickbox.
Donald Trump’s tariff barrage may trigger a response from the Federal Reserve that the new president won’t like.
Bond traders are positioning for the US Treasuries market to extend its recent advance, showing confidence that yields will continue to pull back from the peaks hit after Donald Trump’s election victory.
The S&P 500 earnings growth rate will likely come in just below the 6% mark for the third quarter.
In their 2025 outlook, Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto and Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein say a changing macroeconomic backdrop could create new pockets of leadership in global equity markets.
While politics garner headlines, fundamentals drive the market over the long term.
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
The decision of whether to generate lifetime income with an annuity should be made on its own merits, e.g., as part of a holistic, goals-based investing process. In those cases where annuitized income is deemed beneficial, though, this article has illustrated why the purchase of a qualified annuity from IRA assets may be more attractive than you might expect.
Dollar bulls emboldened by Donald Trump’s win are entering a month that has historically punished the greenback.
It’s the anniversary of the first-ever controlled nuclear fission chain reaction. And it’s the day that Enron filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2001.
Next year, the US Federal Reserve will undertake an exercise with global implications: the periodic monetary policy framework review, at which it rethinks its approach to managing the world’s largest economy.
The 2024 wild ride has proven to be a continuation of last year’s.
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
It’s hard to keep track of all the theories about inflation. Remember policymakers and analysts blaming the surge in inflation in 2021-22 on supply-chain disruptions, too much government spending, and Putin invading Ukraine? Now some are saying that tariffs and deportations are going to cause a second surge in inflation.
Astoria rounds up its 10 ETFs for 2025, providing unique thought leadership and actionable investment ideas.
As a result of the election and rate cuts, the stock market indices surged to new highs in anticipation of lower taxes & looser regulations.
As of November 29, 2024, the 10-year note was 366 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 48.4 in November but remains in contraction territory for an eighth straight month. The index has now contracted for 24 of the past 25 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 47.7.
Governments can contribute to the progress of technology and the economy. The questions are how to do so, and how much to spend.
Short-term rates are going down because the Treasury is issuing related debt at lower rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates are going up because the Fed is not intervening.. The Fed is trapped in a vicious cycle. Can you see a way out?
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
US Treasuries fell on Monday as traders awaited a hefty week of economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials that will likely determine expectations for the central bank’s policy decision later this month.
The world’s biggest hedge funds made the most of trading opportunities sparked by Donald Trump’s reelection last month, keeping the industry on track to post its strongest returns in at least four years.
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Trump's election win spurred market optimism, driving rallies in equities, crypto, and cyclical sector.
Policy changes could reshape return potential for companies across the US market. Here’s how investors can start thinking about the challenges ahead.
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Economic Insights
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 29, the index was at 32.851, up 1.819 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Middle Class Hourly Wages as of November 2024
This series has been updated to include the November release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,510, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: November 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Edges Up to 2.75% in November
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
US Inflation in Line With Forecasts Solidifies Bets on Fed Cut
US consumer prices rose at a firm pace in November that was in line with expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
Treasuries Rise as Inflation Data Fuels Wagers on a Fed Rate Cut
US Treasuries gained and traders boosted their bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction next week after a report showed consumer prices last month accelerated in line with expectations.
Does Bitcoin at $100,000 Signal a Last Laugh for HODLers?
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
Valuations Have Richened, But Areas Outside of Large-Caps Remain Attractive
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
Bond Market Opportunities for Investors in 2025
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
2025 U.S. Stocks and Economy Outlook
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Market Continues Record Streak: Santa Claus Rally in Full Swing
The Santa Claus rally that started a few weeks back continued as the market logged its 53rd record high for 2024. While the Scrooges bemoaned inflation and tariffs, other investors embraced the strong economic data and loaded their sleds with market returns.
Despite Political Headwinds, Healthcare Stocks Stay Anchored to Innovation
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
Crypto Volatility Picks Up as Trump-Fueled Rally Starts to Fray
A bout of selling buffeted crypto as the optimism sparked by President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the sector begins to cool.
European Interest Rates: How Far to R*?
When the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle ends, should the neutral rate be far higher than pre-pandemic? Not in our view.
What Investors Should Know About Political Turmoil in France
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin discussed the ouster of France’s prime minister and the potential market implications. He also provided an update on the health of the U.S. economy.
The Fed Is Still Leaning Toward a December Rate Cut
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
2025 Corporate Bond Outlook
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
Irresponsible and Addictive Deficits
Why hasn’t tighter monetary policy caused a recession? One reason: federal budget deficits have been huge.
Over-Exuberant Positioning for a December Rally
Last week we processed robust economic data and growing clarity on Federal Reserve policy, instilling a consensus view for a strong market that is now well reflected in positioning.
Thoughts From the Bond Vigilantes
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
Dollar Optimism Is Spreading From Hedge Funds to Asset Managers
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
The US Can’t Manufacture Its Way to a Thriving Middle Class
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Bitcoin’s Rise to $100,000 Signals Global Adoption Shift
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
An Investor’s Guide to Potential U.S. Policy Changes in 2025
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
Franklin Templeton’s 2025 Outlooks for Equities and Fixed Income Sectors
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
Wall Street Banks Predict Biggest China Rate Cuts in Decade
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
JPMorgan Asset Prefers Real Estate and PE to Direct Lending
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Record Rally Rolls On
The S&P 500 finished the week ending December 6 with solid gains, up 0.96% from last Friday. The index closed right at a record high and is now up 28.41% year-to-date.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: November Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. November saw a 227,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rose to 4.2%.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Edges Higher
Consumer sentiment continued to rise, according to the preliminary December report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 3.1 points (3.1%) from November's final reading to 74.0. The latest reading was below the forecast of 73.1.
Employment Report: 227K Jobs Added in November, Above Expectations
The latest employment report showed 227,000 jobs were added in November, above forecasts of the expected addition of 202,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
Who Will Need the Next Wave of LNG Export Capacity?
The next few years are set to see a significant expansion in global LNG export capacity, led by North America and Qatar.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Fifth Straight Month in November
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.1, worse than the forecast of 55.5. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 51st time in the past 54 months.
A Bitcoin Reserve Would Be a Bad Deal for Americans
Bitcoin has shot up more than 40% since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, in part on hopes that he’ll champion a government reserve devoted entirely to the cryptocurrency.
A $500 Billion Haul Reignites Passive Controversy on Wall Street
The passive-investing juggernaut is picking up speed — and it’s stirring up fresh angst about the dangers posed by the index-tracking boom across Wall Street.
Bond Traders Leaning on Fed Rate Cuts Eye Payrolls for Clues
Bond traders seeking support for bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month will closely watch Friday’s US employment report for November.
2025 Investment Outlook: Building the Transformation
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
2025 Treasury Bonds and Fixed Income Outlook
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
ETFs Gone Hollywood? Heavyweights Enter the ETF Fray
The explosive growth of the ETF industry has attracted a full range of new entrants this year — from smaller individuals to the largest hedge funds in the world. More and more fund managers are making their foray into the world of ETFs.
European Interest Rates: How Far to R*?
When the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle ends, should the neutral rate be far higher than pre-pandemic? Not in our view.
Two Measures of Inflation: October 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.3%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Secular Market Trends: Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in July 2024. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,236 for an annualized real return of 10.94%.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - November 2024
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of November 29, it was 4.18%.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: November 2024
Based on the November S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: November 2024
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.6 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
Job Openings Increase in October
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings increased in October, reflecting more hiring. Vacancies increased to 7.744 million in October from September's downwardly revised level of 7.372 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.510 million vacancies.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 183% Above Trend in October
Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 183% above its long-term trend, up from October.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Unemployment Claims Up 9K, Worse Than Expected
In the week ending November 30th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 224,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 215,000.
Bitcoin Soars Past $100,000 on Trump’s Pro-Crypto Pick for SEC
President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator lifted Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time as traders warmed to the prospect of relaxed regulations.
$8 Billion for Intel Won’t Fix America’s Chip Problem
Since its enactment in 2022, the Chips and Science Act — a $280 billion splurge intended to revive US semiconductor manufacturing — has been at best a mixed success. A $7.9 billion grant to Intel Corp., announced by President Joe Biden’s administration last week, shows how this gravy train may be headed off the rails.
Monthly Global Economic Report
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Fed’s Powell Expects Good Relations With Trump Administration
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the prospects of tension with the incoming Trump administration and said he expects officials can move cautiously as they continue lowering interest rates.
How Much Cash Is Really on the Sidelines?
Dan Suzuki analyzes current and historical trends in investors' stock, bond, and cash holdings to assess whether this "cash on the sidelines" narrative could be a valid catalyst for pushing the stock market to new highs.
When Will the “Bill” Come Due?
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
Health-Care Spending Is Sinking the Federal Budget
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
How the ECB Can Safely Store Its Crisis Toolkit
Next week’s European Central Bank meeting is more important than it might first appear.
BlackRock Pays $12 Billion to Catch Up in Private Credit
The trend is your friend. Or, in Larry Fink’s case, your primary acquisition tickbox.
Tariff Inflation Will Likely Be Transitory, But Fed Won’t Say So
Donald Trump’s tariff barrage may trigger a response from the Federal Reserve that the new president won’t like.
Bond Traders Position for US Treasury Market to Extend Rebound
Bond traders are positioning for the US Treasuries market to extend its recent advance, showing confidence that yields will continue to pull back from the peaks hit after Donald Trump’s election victory.
Positive Earnings Trends Heading into 2025, S&P 500 Price Targets Rolling In
The S&P 500 earnings growth rate will likely come in just below the 6% mark for the third quarter.
A More Dynamic Playing Field for Equity Investors
In their 2025 outlook, Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto and Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein say a changing macroeconomic backdrop could create new pockets of leadership in global equity markets.
Equity Markets Carried in November by Post-election Rally
While politics garner headlines, fundamentals drive the market over the long term.
Tactical Rules Hovering Above Neutral
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
Opportunities in Biotechnology Will Follow Advancements in the Science
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
Annuities in an IRA? A Surprising RMD Advantage for FIAs or VAs
The decision of whether to generate lifetime income with an annuity should be made on its own merits, e.g., as part of a holistic, goals-based investing process. In those cases where annuitized income is deemed beneficial, though, this article has illustrated why the purchase of a qualified annuity from IRA assets may be more attractive than you might expect.
Dollar Faces Treacherous December on Trump, Rate Risks
Dollar bulls emboldened by Donald Trump’s win are entering a month that has historically punished the greenback.
Enron 2.0 — So Bad It’s Good?
It’s the anniversary of the first-ever controlled nuclear fission chain reaction. And it’s the day that Enron filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2001.
The Fed’s Next Big Policy Rethink Needs Rethinking
Next year, the US Federal Reserve will undertake an exercise with global implications: the periodic monetary policy framework review, at which it rethinks its approach to managing the world’s largest economy.
Don’t Be a Last Minute Rate Shopper
The 2024 wild ride has proven to be a continuation of last year’s.
2025 Global Outlook: Clearing the Hurdles
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
Inflation Distractions
It’s hard to keep track of all the theories about inflation. Remember policymakers and analysts blaming the surge in inflation in 2021-22 on supply-chain disruptions, too much government spending, and Putin invading Ukraine? Now some are saying that tariffs and deportations are going to cause a second surge in inflation.
Special Report: Astoria’s 10 ETFs for 2025
Astoria rounds up its 10 ETFs for 2025, providing unique thought leadership and actionable investment ideas.
Trump Wins, Fed Cuts, Market Rips, Now What?
As a result of the election and rate cuts, the stock market indices surged to new highs in anticipation of lower taxes & looser regulations.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of November 29, 2024, the 10-year note was 366 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
ISM Manufacturing Index Higher Than Last Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 48.4 in November but remains in contraction territory for an eighth straight month. The index has now contracted for 24 of the past 25 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 47.7.
The 2024 Economics Nobel
Governments can contribute to the progress of technology and the economy. The questions are how to do so, and how much to spend.
Fed Staunches Asset Hemorrhaging, But Consequences Could Loom
Short-term rates are going down because the Treasury is issuing related debt at lower rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates are going up because the Fed is not intervening.. The Fed is trapped in a vicious cycle. Can you see a way out?
Uneven Earnings Call for Granularity
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
Treasuries Drop as Market Braces for Big Data Week, Fed Speakers
US Treasuries fell on Monday as traders awaited a hefty week of economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials that will likely determine expectations for the central bank’s policy decision later this month.
Biggest Hedge Funds Make the Most of the Trump Trade in November
The world’s biggest hedge funds made the most of trading opportunities sparked by Donald Trump’s reelection last month, keeping the industry on track to post its strongest returns in at least four years.
The Changing Nature of the Stock Market
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
BUZZ Investing: Election Sparks 'Trump Trade' Rally
Trump's election win spurred market optimism, driving rallies in equities, crypto, and cyclical sector.
Beyond the Trump Trade: US Equity Investing in a New Policy Era
Policy changes could reshape return potential for companies across the US market. Here’s how investors can start thinking about the challenges ahead.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November 2024 Up 5.7%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.