Economic Insights

The month of April will unfortunately go down in financial market folklore as being one of the more noteworthy on record.

In this article, we examine everything from the yield curve to CAPE ratios to gain a sense of where we are, and where we might be headed next.

CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.

Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023.

While the US experiments with reordering the world’s trading system, uncertainty rises and volatility ensues. We are reminded of the delicate balance between safeguarding domestic interests and promoting a cooperative global trading system.

As we write this, stocks have bounced back as Trump retreated from electronic tariffs from China. Nevertheless, this was a remarkable week for markets with Trump’s tariff policy taking center stage for market stress across stocks, bonds and currencies.

While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.

The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.

The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.

Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.

Some of the reasons, but not the only ones, why our trade deficits are so large is because government expenditures are too high and/or we are not collecting enough taxes.

The American consumer is tapped out. The savings buffer is gone, wage growth is declining, and credit costs are rising. Corporate America is already adjusting to this new reality, with companies issuing cautious guidance for 2025.

On Monday, April 7, the S&P 500 dropped as much as 4.7% at the session low before whiplashing higher on reports of a potential tariff delay—closing the day up 3.4% from Friday’s close.

We think it’s important for the Fed to move gradually. The US dollar has weakened lately, and, as a result, there is little case for a drastic loosening of monetary policy. The Fed could let up somewhat on bank regulations and capital requirements, which would help the struggling bond market.

Significant government policy shifts, particularly in tariffs and regulatory restructuring, have created uncertainty and volatility. We continue monitoring potential risks like inflation and recession while remaining focused on identifying profitable investment opportunities amidst these changes.

Commodity markets face uncertainty from tariffs, global growth risks and geopolitics, but may show resilience. Tight supply and global stimulus support a constructive long-term outlook.

You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.

Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.

Last week’s data can be summarized by a volatile market reacting to tariff news and a backwards-looking inflation reprieve.

After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.

Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.

It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.

On 9 April, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “add-on” reciprocal tariffs on 50-plus countries that had been announced the previous week, precipitating a historic equity market rally and showing that there was seemingly a limit to how far he would go to move forward with his trade agenda.

Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.

Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.

The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop.

On 2 April, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs that were more aggressive than many had expected. Then on 9 April, the administration announced a 90-day pause on most of the new country-specific “reciprocal tariffs.”

Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.

Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.

Global equities faced fresh challenges in the first quarter of 2025 amid growing trade-war concerns and developments in artificial intelligence (AI).

Q1 earnings season is about to kick off amidst what some might consider to be the most uncertain environment for US corporations since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.

With the financial markets still wrestling with the tariff announcements from last week, one thing is still certain: uncertainty remains an integral part of the investment landscape.

Markets were jolted last week after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including steep increases on China, Japan, and the EU, leading to a 10.5% drop in the S&P 500 over two days—an event seen only during major crises in the past 75 years.

The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.

A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.

With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.

How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?

With a number of factors at play, the short-term pullback in gold will likely meet resistance to the long-term, unchanged fundamentals,

DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell shares DoubleLine’s outlook for risk markets, the U.S. Treasury curve, inflation, growth and Federal Reserve policy in light of Washington’s reciprocal tariffs and reactions of U.S. trade partners.