Tyler will answer audience questions about what the future holds for global economies.
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
Vitaliy Katsenelson will share his outlook for the economy and his approach to active stock management.
Incorporating a wide variety of portfolio risk mitigation techniques is essential to address unforeseeable macroeconomic challenges.
An allegation has been floated recently that inflation has been exacerbated by corporate greed. A neologism has even been coined for it, “greedflation.” The claim has been backed up by anecdotal and empirical data and it has been rebutted by anecdotal and empirical data. I will not try to answer the question of whether this allegation is true, but how its truth should be determined.
If I had a time machine, 1972 isn’t the destination I would choose for Britain — not with so much inflation, strike action and strife just around the corner.
The global surge in the cost of fuel is starting to weigh on demand, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trader.
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Treasuries began the second half of the year on the front foot Friday as concerns continued to mount that Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a recession.
To state the obvious, it has been a good time to be short the market. But the success of bearish traders in 2022 goes beyond luck.
The first half of 2022 brought a brutal selloff to emerging markets, but also fueled hope for the second half: stocks, bonds and currencies have begun to outperform their peers in the US.
Things can only get better for the $4 trillion muni market in the second half of the year, according to Wall Street strategists.
As mass layoffs start to make headlines and recession chatter gets louder, there is a lot that traditionally employed folks can learn from freelancers to defend their finances amid anxiety about a downturn.
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
The S&P 500 declined four out of five days this week, ending Friday higher than all but Monday's close. The index is down 19.7% YTD and is 20.25% below its record close - that makes four consecutive "bear" days and twelve of the last 19.
Quick take: Based on the June S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 124% above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Global risk assets were at the epicenter of a selling spree Friday as investors kicked off the second half of the year with recession concern front and center.
In an inflation-lashed world where bonds are posting record losses, Wall Street issuers are betting investors hungry for income will instead lavish their millions on ETFs that ride stocks in order to deliver payouts.
The strained global wheat market is entering crunch time.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 149.3, down 1.5 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -6.7, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.58%, also down from last week.
Investors cut holdings in exchange-traded funds for silver, platinum and palladium in the second quarter on fears that a potential recession will reduce industrial demand, but gold assets held up because of its role as a haven, and that may persist.
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for June. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.0, a decrease of 3.1 from 56.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.9.
The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
As of June 27, the price of Regular and Premium were down 9 and 7 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.27 and South Carolina has the cheapest at $4.32. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 119.57 and is mostly unchanged from last week.
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.08% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.45% nominal and a decrease from the 0.21% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.5% nominal and -3.61% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number is up 1.8% year-over-year.
Base metals headed for the worst quarterly slump since the 2008 global financial crisis as China’s economy recovered only gradually and fears of a world recession intensified.
US President Joe Biden said Americans will have to stomach high gas prices “as long as it takes” to beat back Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Soon-to-be retirees are reevaluating things like when to stop working, whether they should move and how to strategize their spending.
Zoom Video Communications Inc. is navigating life after the pandemic by acting like the past two years never happened.
Skeptics have long made a sport of predicting that the decade-long rally in technology stocks was destined to reverse. At the halfway point of 2022, it seems like this is the year when they will be proven right.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.59% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.35% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.69%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%.
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
The Third Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.5%.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Fifth District manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index stood at -19 in June compared to -9 in May.
To celebrate Pride Month, four PIMCO executives share their perspectives on inclusion and diversity in the workplace and the importance of visible representation.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The latest general business activity index came in at -17.7, down 10.4 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Another Federal Reserve official has lined up with those who favor following last week’s 75 basis-point interest-rate increase with the same again next month to curb rampant inflation.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Economic Insights
The Drivers of Economy Growth – Tyler Cowen
Tyler will answer audience questions about what the future holds for global economies.
Tackling restrictive Fed policy, inflation and a recessionary sentiment with Defined Outcome ETFs
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
The Outlook for the Economy and Active Management – Vitaliy Katsenelson
Vitaliy Katsenelson will share his outlook for the economy and his approach to active stock management.
Prepared For Anything
Incorporating a wide variety of portfolio risk mitigation techniques is essential to address unforeseeable macroeconomic challenges.
Is “Greedflation” Real – and How Should that Question be Answered?
An allegation has been floated recently that inflation has been exacerbated by corporate greed. A neologism has even been coined for it, “greedflation.” The claim has been backed up by anecdotal and empirical data and it has been rebutted by anecdotal and empirical data. I will not try to answer the question of whether this allegation is true, but how its truth should be determined.
Brexit Has the UK Traveling the Wrong Way in Time
If I had a time machine, 1972 isn’t the destination I would choose for Britain — not with so much inflation, strike action and strife just around the corner.
Surging Fuel Costs Are Causing Demand Destruction, Says Vitol
The global surge in the cost of fuel is starting to weigh on demand, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trader.
Richest Billionaires Lose $1.4 Trillion in Worst Half-Year Ever
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Recession Fears Bolster Treasuries, Short-End Yields Plunge
Treasuries began the second half of the year on the front foot Friday as concerns continued to mount that Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a recession.
Bears Picked Right Stocks to Short With Declines Twice the S&P’s
To state the obvious, it has been a good time to be short the market. But the success of bearish traders in 2022 goes beyond luck.
Historic Rout in Emerging Markets Sows Seeds of Outperformance
The first half of 2022 brought a brutal selloff to emerging markets, but also fueled hope for the second half: stocks, bonds and currencies have begun to outperform their peers in the US.
Wall Street Says the Worst Is Over for Municipal Bonds in 2022
Things can only get better for the $4 trillion muni market in the second half of the year, according to Wall Street strategists.
Anxious About a Recession? Start Thinking Like a Freelancer
As mass layoffs start to make headlines and recession chatter gets louder, there is a lot that traditionally employed folks can learn from freelancers to defend their finances amid anxiety about a downturn.
Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Time Has a Price
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
S&P 500 Snapshot: Down Again
The S&P 500 declined four out of five days this week, ending Friday higher than all but Monday's close. The index is down 19.7% YTD and is 20.25% below its record close - that makes four consecutive "bear" days and twelve of the last 19.
Crestmont Market Valuation Update: June 2022
Quick take: Based on the June S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 124% above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
Mid-Year Themes
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
The End of Indexing
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Ditch Risk Is the Second Half Mantra as Recession Spooks Traders
Global risk assets were at the epicenter of a selling spree Friday as investors kicked off the second half of the year with recession concern front and center.
Existential Crisis in Bonds Fuels Wall Street’s Income ETF Boom
In an inflation-lashed world where bonds are posting record losses, Wall Street issuers are betting investors hungry for income will instead lavish their millions on ETFs that ride stocks in order to deliver payouts.
War-Strained Wheat Market Faces Moment of Truth
The strained global wheat market is entering crunch time.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 149.3, down 1.5 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -6.7, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.58%, also down from last week.
Gold Keeps Its Shine for Investors as Other Precious Metals Fade
Investors cut holdings in exchange-traded funds for silver, platinum and palladium in the second quarter on fears that a potential recession will reduce industrial demand, but gold assets held up because of its role as a haven, and that may persist.
“HODL” Finds Its Inevitable Flaw
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
Looking for Recession Clues in All the Wrong Places?
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
June ISM Manufacturing Index: Lowest in 2 Years
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for June. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.0, a decrease of 3.1 from 56.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.9.
June Markit Manufacturing: Lowest Since Oct 2020
The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 8.4% in June
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Inch Down
As of June 27, the price of Regular and Premium were down 9 and 7 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.27 and South Carolina has the cheapest at $4.32. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 119.57 and is mostly unchanged from last week.
Bitcoin Tests $19,000
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
Taking the Consumer’s Temperature
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
The Fed Is Actually Fixing Inequality, Unfortunately
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
Somber Summer
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in May
With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.08% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.45% nominal and a decrease from the 0.21% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.5% nominal and -3.61% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in May
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number is up 1.8% year-over-year.
Metals Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008 on Global Downturn Angst
Base metals headed for the worst quarterly slump since the 2008 global financial crisis as China’s economy recovered only gradually and fears of a world recession intensified.
US Will Face High Gas Prices ‘as Long as It Takes,’ Biden Says
US President Joe Biden said Americans will have to stomach high gas prices “as long as it takes” to beat back Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Now What? Advice for Retiring Into a Recession
Soon-to-be retirees are reevaluating things like when to stop working, whether they should move and how to strategize their spending.
Zoom Bets on Corporate Customers to Stem Post-Pandemic Crash
Zoom Video Communications Inc. is navigating life after the pandemic by acting like the past two years never happened.
Technology Stocks Head for Historic Wipeout as US Economy Cools
Skeptics have long made a sport of predicting that the decade-long rally in technology stocks was destined to reverse. At the halfway point of 2022, it seems like this is the year when they will be proven right.
PCE Price Index: May Headline at 6.35% YoY
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.59% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.35% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.69%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Another 2K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.
Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.04%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%.
No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
Time to Start Preparing for a Recession Is Now, Rob Arnott Says
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at -1.6%, Worse Than Forecast
The Third Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.5%.
2022 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
Key Takeaways From Our 2021 Advisor Fixed Income Portfolio Review
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
2022 Mid-Year Corporate Credit Outlook
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
The Monetary Surge Continues to Ebb
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Energy Crunch vs. Consumer Freeze: What Are Stocks Signaling?
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Portfolio Perspectives – Recession or Not, That’s the Question
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Says Analysts Are ‘Deer in Headlights’
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Dealing with Student Loans, Rising Interest Rates, and Inflation
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Additional Declines in June
Fifth District manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index stood at -19 in June compared to -9 in May.
Power of Representation: the 'Us'es'
To celebrate Pride Month, four PIMCO executives share their perspectives on inclusion and diversity in the workplace and the importance of visible representation.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
ECB in the News
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
We're Not Already in a Recession
Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.
Margin Debt: Down 2.6% in May
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Posts Longest Inflow Streak in Over a Year
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Growth Decelerates in June
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The latest general business activity index came in at -17.7, down 10.4 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
US Durable Goods Orders Exceed Forecast in Broad Advance
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto Stocks Show Why They’re Among the Riskiest of Risk Assets
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Powell’s Path to 2% Inflation Needs Luck or, Failing That, Pain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Fed Dove Daly Joins Officials Open to 75 Basis-Point July Hike
Another Federal Reserve official has lined up with those who favor following last week’s 75 basis-point interest-rate increase with the same again next month to curb rampant inflation.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.