Economic Insights

The economy appears to be settling into a new equilibrium. Economic growth has moderated to a sustainable pace. While inflation has picked up over the last few months, there does not seem to be a fundamental shift in the underlying trend.

The AI investment boom has become one of the largest sources of demand in the U.S. economy. Announced annual capital spending across large U.S. technology companies points to more than $1 trillion in desired investment, up dramatically from only a few years ago.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, maintaining the fed funds trading range at 3.75% to 4.00%. After some early back and forth on the chances for a rate hike at this gathering, this result was largely expected. In fact, fed funds futures were pricing in more than a 90% chance that the fed funds target would remain unchanged.

After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.

Milton Friedman famously said, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” emphasizing that sustained inflation occurs when money expands persistently faster than real output.

The Federal Reserve decided to wait for more data rather than raise rates at its October meeting. Two policymakers dissented, favoring a rate hike of a quarter percentage point.

With the recent movements in both the stock and bond markets, there was some noteworthy news that got kind of lost. Indeed, the U.S. government posted a $1.99 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026. While technically it is not a record amount of red-ink, it represented the largest non-COVID-related shortfall ever recorded in modern history.

The credit market had become more discerning. Companies with greater leverage, more uncertain cash flows, or business models requiring enormous amounts of capital appeared to be more scrutinized.

LPL Research examines three keys to earnings season: broader profit growth, margin pressures, and high expectations amid continued AI investment.

Gold has traditionally been one of the most popular ways for investors to gain commodity exposure, but its recent weakness highlights the differences across various commodities. While precious metals have struggled, energy and certain agricultural commodities have seen stronger returns. Existing diversified strategies are also giving investors more ways to access commodities beyond traditional gold funds.

Founded in 2019 with backing from Japanese investment holding company SoftBank, SB Energy began as a U.S.-based utility-scale renewable energy developer. Today, SB Energy has three lines of business—power, data centers, and solutions.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the last meeting before the mid-term elections, while setting the table for a likely rate move in December.

Economic data that continued to show a strong U.S. economy, housing aside, took a back seat this week as investors once again focused on potential risks to future growth: rising energy prices, sticky inflation, and most importantly, questions about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

There was very little macroeconomic news last week, but there was certainly no shortage of action in the markets. We saw an extraordinarily sharp rotation out of growth and into value, with both the Russell Value Index and the S&P Value Index reaching all-time highs even as the Nasdaq suffered one of its largest recent selloffs. That is a dramatic divergence, but historically it is not unprecedented.

Keynes’ influence is still very much alive. As one point of evidence, Robert Hall of Stanford University and Michael Woodford of Columbia University, champions of what is now known as “The New Keynesian Theory,” were recognized with this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics.

Higher yields do not automatically make longer-duration bonds attractive, as persistent inflation, resilient growth, and heavy debt issuance could maintain upward pressure on yields in the near term.

Record ETF launches are compressing product shelf lives and raising closure risks. Learn the real costs for advisors and clients.

We estimate the US economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the third quarter. Solid. Robust even, considering that net immigration is near zero and possibly negative, while Baby Boomers continue to gradually drift into retirement.

Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

The Middle Eastern waters might be calm enough to allow for energy shipments to recover toward pre-war levels, but Asia-Pacific (APAC) economies are not yet in calm waters. Tight petroleum product supplies and higher shipping costs leave the region vulnerable to further shocks.

The next two weeks bring an unusually crowded lineup of potential market-moving catalysts, including a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, the busiest stretch of third-quarter 2026 earnings season, the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and the midterm elections.

We have been arguing that the reset higher in yields has restored the dual role of bonds in multi-asset portfolios: providing attractive income while once again offering the potential for meaningful risk mitigation. This month’s tech market turbulence has provided a clear example: As equities came under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a flight to safety, allowing duration to behave like a diversifier again.

The bond market is flashing levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, while real yields — measured by Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) — are at their highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.

Last year, U.S. charitable giving hit a record $617.20 billion, according to Giving USA. That’s the first time it’s ever topped $600 billion. Individuals gave $394.2 billion of that, foundations gave $117.15 billion, bequests added $62.19 billion and corporations contributed $43.67 billion.

The Fed is hiking to prove it can beat inflation. The danger is that it proves the point with the one economy that can’t afford to lose.

In late October, VettaFi hosted an interactive virtual event featuring market leaders from State Street Investment Management, Janus Henderson, and Horizon. During the presentation, advisor sentiment polls revealed a decisive shift in how many are approaching their fixed income allocation. Higher yields have restored bonds as a compelling asset class. However, advisors were looking for tools beyond a traditional index-based bond ETF.

Our Director and Head of Canadian Investment Strategy BeiChen Lin sees two main forces behind this week’s more cautious market tone: higher energy prices and renewed questions around artificial intelligence investment.

Manufacturing production began to recover in early 2026 after nearly three years in recession. Yet manufacturing employment has remained largely unchanged. In other words, a year and a half after tariffs were imposed with the goal of boosting manufacturing jobs, that objective remains elusive.

With the U.S. midterm elections mere weeks away, it can be easy to get swept up in the headlines and questions about what different outcomes might mean for markets.

VettaFi has been recognized as the Best U.S. Index Overall Provider at the ETF Express U.S. ETF Awards 2026, building on a standout year of index innovation, strategic acquisitions, and product milestone growth across the ETP landscape.

Emerging markets continued to deliver strong year-to-date returns in 2026, although the third quarter served as a reminder that the path higher is rarely linear. After a powerful first-half rally led by artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and other growth-oriented sectors, markets experienced a broad correction in July before stabilizing through the remainder of the quarter.

The number one question we tend to receive is: Where are long-term interest rates headed from here? Right behind it is: How do I invest in the bond market, not only for right now but also for the future? In our opinion, investors should be prepared for this elevated “normal” rate setting for the foreseeable future. We wanted to address both questions by examining how to prepare a bond portfolio for a 5% world.

The Federal Reserve is engaged in a well-documented battle with high inflation. So, many advisors and fixed income investors are evaluating Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and related ETFs.

A broad retreat in technology shares set the tone for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.9 per cent and the NASDAQ dropped 4.5 per cent, while the Dow rose 0.7 per cent as investors rotated out of tech and into more defensive sectors.

For many bond investors, 2026 has stirred up uncomfortable memories of 2022. Yields have climbed sharply as bond prices have come under pressure and the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate target.

Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.

Higher bond yields may offer retirees more income potential, but a diversified approach that balances income, risk, and spending needs remains important.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-setting group within the U.S. Federal Reserve, meets on 27–28 October to discuss the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy. We expect the FOMC to hold the policy rate at 3.75%–4.0% while keeping a clear tightening bias.

Middle Eastern oil exports are approaching pre-war levels, but oil prices certainly aren’t. Brent remains above $100 a barrel, as the concern increasingly is not just how much oil is flowing today, but how much is left in reserve if supplies are disrupted again.

After years when yield was scarce and investors were pushed further out on the risk spectrum, income is investable again. High-quality bonds can once more provide meaningful cash flow, portfolio stability and a credible path to total return without requiring an aggressive call on interest rates or credit.

Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.

The new policy regime the Fed has lost touch with the economy. It has eradicated a lot of market feedback by eliminating banks from trading federal funds. It has separated interest rates from money supply growth.