After the underperformance of stocks and bonds last year, it’s no surprise that diversification strategies are a significant focus this year. Alternatives continue to garner advisor and investor interest as market dispersion grows, including managed futures and long/short strategies.
Franklin Templeton recently hosted due diligence meetings with financial advisors where Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, led discussions focused on alternative investments.
Money managers including Invesco Ltd. and Loop Capital Asset Management are bullish on regional-bank bonds, wagering that the debt will perform better than the broader market as fears about funding costs settle down.
November will be etched in the memories of investors as a remarkable month.
Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary.
The fourth quarter has seen a strong performance from gold. In early October, the price of gold stood at $1,820 per ounce, according to Kitco, and looked as if it would continue to drop in value as it had done the previous five months.
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 8.92%, after a loss of 2.20% in October. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — is signaling "cash", down from last month's final quadruple "cash" signal.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index fell 1.5% in October to 71.4, the index's lowest reading since the NAR began tracking data in 2001, and is down 8.5% compared to one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 2.0% last month.
With the release of October's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.44% nominal and 3.33% real.
Even Ken Griffin is a little worried. Multimanager funds like Griffin’s Citadel have come to dominate the hedge fund industry, riding a steady run of outperformance to oversee more than $1 trillion, including a healthy dose of leverage.
Real estate headlines seem to only focus on bad news right now, from remote work’s impact on offices to struggles for city center retail.
There is broad agreement that economic damages will increase with warming, but there is substantial disagreement on the magnitude of these damages.
Broad commodities have struggled this year. The S&P GSCI Index is down more than 5% year-to-date. However, there are still opportunities when investors dig a little deeper, according to Teucrium’s Senior Portfolio Specialist Jake Hanley.
Whether famous or infamous, the Magnificent 7 stocks have been 2023’s stock market story. However, the fundamentals of the Magnificent 7 aren't uniquely superior, and the breadth and depth of other growth opportunities seems historically large and attractive. In our latest insight, we complete an analysis of US companies with expected earnings growth greater than 25% and compare it against the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Free-cash-flow yield is the surplus cash after expenses and investments divided by the price of the security. Free-cashflow yield has been used for a long time by active hedge funds. Now it has become part of the indexing landscape, competing for assets with other quantitative approaches. It has historically outperformed in markets that favored value stocks and shown resilience in growth markets. My guest today will explain why, in today's intangible asset-driven economy, traditional metrics like price to earnings and price to book face challenges, making free cash flow a more relevant valuation metric. We will discuss how advisors should think about free cash flow and the steps VictoryShares & Solutions has taken to enhance traditional approaches.
All investments involve some degree of risk.
On November 28, 2023, VettaFi hosted an Alternatives Symposium with an excellent turnout of nearly 750 advisors and investors registered for the event.
Now that inflation is finally decelerating, regulators are increasingly turning their focus to financial stability.
The private equity industry’s push into credit is so well advanced that no one bats an eyelid when the same buyout firm is invested in the debt and equity of the same portfolio company.
Bitcoin climbed back above $38,000 on Tuesday amid optimism the US central bank may be closer to lowering borrowing costs if inflation continues to decline.
It’s the latest critique of the passive-investing boom: Fresh academic research claims that the relentless flood of index-chasing cash on Wall Street is distorting stock prices and causing extreme market moves.
Often misunderstood, crypto has an important role to play in the alternatives sleeve of a portfolio.
Commodities entered 2023 behind a strong performance in 2022. For investors revisiting their portfolios ahead of 2024, it may be worth assessing the commodities outlook. From energy to precious metals, commodities can add meaningful diversification to a portfolio.
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
What were the big ETF trends of 2023? David Mann, Global Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets, reviews some of his predictions for this year—and how they panned out.
The rebound in Adyen NV and its European fintech peers this month has been notable, but investors should brace for a bumpy road ahead.
At the time of the first major climate change conference, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, China was one of the least developed nations. Its per capita income was below Haiti, Niger and Pakistan.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.7% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 3.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.1% and the YoY was reduced to -2.9%.
The recent sharp pullback in volatility as year-end approaches creates hedging opportunities given the cloudy outlook for equities, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in September, coming in at 414.8. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month and by 6.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.4% month-over-month and up 4.0% year-over-year.
As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
Don’t look now, but markets are once again getting excited about the prospect of potential rate cuts. Following months defined by rising rates, investors are looking forward to inflation cooling sufficiently for the Fed to finally cut.
When Argentina entered the 20th Century, its prospects looked bright. On a per person basis, its economy was on par with Canada and Sweden and about two-thirds of the United States.
With relentless market volatility and other stubborn headwinds, advisors must find an adequate portfolio balance for their clients. What role will alternative investments play in offsetting market challenges? In this episode, we dive into this question with Andrea Mody, U.S. wealth private markets head at Macquarie Asset Management. We discuss how Macquarie continues to be a trailblazer for the democratization of alternatives, how traditional asset managers are reorganizing to incorporate alternatives, the roadblocks for allocation and Andrea’s outlook for the space.
Our immense progress in improving society’s standard of living over the last several centuries was possible because of advances in the discovery and production of energy. To assume that will continue is a grave error.
With equity markets open just a half day, the day after Thanksgiving is usually a noneventful day in financial markets. However, something notable did occur last Friday: Bitcoin jumped to its highest prices in 18 months.
VettaFi will be hosting an Alternatives Symposium tomorrow, November 28. We are covering a range of alternative topics.
Is a hedge fund anything without its founder? Another batch of well-known hedge fund managers have sold out or moved to liquidate portfolios this month. Their legacies as entrepreneurs underscore the challenges of building a firm that outgrows the key risk-taker.
The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.
Private equity firms that spent hundreds of billions of dollars on acquisitions at the top of the market risk a nasty hangover.
Thanksgiving brings to mind not only turkeys, family, and friends, but also should help us recall the remarkable ideas and philosophies that helped shape, and indeed were, the foundation for the United States of America as a Republic.
The 2023 holiday season is officially upon us. Happy Black Friday and Cyber Monday to those who observe!
It’s the major casualty of November’s sizzling stock rally: Investor caution.
Treasury investors are turning increasingly skeptical the Federal Reserve will deliver a soft landing for the US economy next year, elevating concern of a looming recession over the risks posed by inflation and a swelling budget deficit.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level fell for a third straight month to $635.28 billion. Margin debt is down 6.7% month-over-month (MoM) and down 2.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 6.7% MoM and down 5.3% YoY.
Every time interest rates go up there is a flurry of demand for a product that has been around at least since the Roman Empire — annuities. The insurance industry has already seen rapid growth in annuity sales since 2021 and if rates remain at or move above current levels, demand seems poised to explode.
Two former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers want to take the $1.6 trillion private credit revolution from Wall Street to Main Street.
While Cathie Wood has been touting her bullish stance on Bitcoin in recent months, her firm ARK Investment Management actually cut holdings in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
Artificial intelligence is likely to transform our world in many ways, but one that hasn’t received much attention is the technology’s looming impact on real estate. As AI becomes an essential component of both business and daily life, the value of places where those who work on AI want to live will rise, provided these locales have reasonable infrastructure.
Growth prospects for renewable energy will be a central plank of discussions when world leaders start gathering next week in Dubai for COP28.
While the fall in inflation is welcome, the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage borrowers still has some way to play out. The reduction in inflation will help DB members that are drawing on their pension. Pension trustees should consider their investment strategy and support members with their retirement planning.
CIO designate Sean Taylor gives his take on what Asia has to offer global and emerging markets investors, from growth, to diversification, to innovation.
Former Bridgewater Associates LP executive Bob Elliott’s plan for exchange-traded funds that employ hedge fund strategies has sharpened the debate about whether retail investors should have access to such approaches.
News that a Washington DC Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale Investments LLC over the Securities and Exchange Commission has ignited hope that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund will soon be available. Bitcoin prices jumped.
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell more than expected in October, coming in at $279.44B. This is a 5.4% decrease from the previous month and is more than the expected 3.1% decline. The series is up 0.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% from one year ago.
October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will delve into the world of office real estate investment trusts (REITs), and explore whether there are any good investment opportunities in this sector.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management and digital-asset firm 21Shares just became the first major applicant in the US spot Bitcoin ETF race to list a fee on their planned offering.
For investors stashing record sums in cash, US bond managers overseeing a combined $2.5 trillion have a bit of advice: It’s time to put that money to work.
Existing home sales fell further, remaining at their lowest level since 2010, as lack of inventory and high mortgage rates continued to impact sales. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.1% from September to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 3.90 million. Existing home sales are down 14.6% compared to one year ago.
The S&P 500 has rallied in recent days and was up close to 20% for the year. However, heading into 2024, many advisors are exploring a range of investment ideas that offer exposure beyond the stock market.
Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, sheds light on the benefits of single-country ETF allocations against what has been a rocky macro backdrop and discusses ways to re-evaluate potential opportunities in terms of tax-loss decision-making.
Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.
The steepening yield curve has grabbed my attention. Historically, it's been a reliable investment signal. However, as I discuss in my article below, today's might not be occurring for the same reasons as in the past. It's not that it's different this time. It just might not be the same (so far).
In this issue of Fixed-Income Sector Views, our Sector Teams identify positive technical trends that have helped to support spreads, but remain vigilant for signs of credit deterioration as the slowing economy and the bite of higher rates start to be felt by issuers.
After three days of high drama at the world’s most closely watched startup, which many compared to a coup, Microsoft Corp. capped the weekend with one of its own: The software giant hired ousted OpenAI chief Sam Altman.
Welcome to the world of anchoring, where your serenity takes a back seat to anxiety.
Investors should embrace a genuine long-term perspective, extending their time horizons to at least 20 to 30 years. The traditional notion of long-term investing (five to 10 years) may fall short of realizing the full benefits of long-term strategies.
Picking the “right” stock is akin to betting on a game; not only must one pick the right team (beta), but also by how much (alpha).
The deflationistas have been working themselves into a tizzy since Walmart Inc. Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon warned of a period of declining prices at the big-box retailer in the months to come.
Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”
Following the surge in inflation, the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle since the 1980s and multi-decade lows in business and consumer confidence, calls for a U.S. recession have been prevalent all year.
Using LOGICLY data, we look at two of Direxion’s leveraged gold miners ETFs and their key features.
Investing in the stock market typically brings to mind the strategy of buying low and selling high. However, there’s another, somewhat counterintuitive method some investors employ: short selling.
Portfolios with large allocations to alternatives can have many benefits. However, alternative allocations can deviate meaningfully from policy, particularly during periods of equity-market turbulence.
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are difficult to replace due to their availability, affordability and energy density. Low-carbon alternatives, like solar energy, need large amounts of space to produce comparable amounts of energy to oil.
Though inflation continues to cool, there remains a potentially longer road ahead to get to the Fed’s desired 2%. In an environment of uncertainty and elevated inflation, the inclusion of managed futures in a portfolio made a significant difference in the last few years as modeled by DBi recently.
For the past decade, South Florida’s politicians and development officials have fanned dreams — which long felt like delusions — of the region reinventing itself as some sort of “Wall Street South.”
The Treasury Department’s top domestic finance official said the US government debt market has functioned well during a year of outsized interest-rate volatility, a regional banking crisis and the recent hack of the world’s largest bank.
The run-off election looks tight in Argentina, where I’m attending a Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) event in Buenos Aires.
A charismatic entrepreneur pulls in wealthy investors to amass a portfolio of some of the finest prime real estate. Banks and bondholders are persuaded to provide the leverage. What could possibly go wrong?
At first blush, a record $100 billion flood into actively managed exchange-traded funds this year raises a tantalizing prospect: A revival of stock picking even as only Big Tech names outperform the market. Yet, a look under the hood of popular ETFs shows the boom is almost entirely taking place in passive-looking trades.
In October, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.345 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from September and a 4.2% decline compared to one year ago.
In October, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.450 million. This marks a 1.1% increase from September and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
Confounding market and economic signals persist as the year’s end draws near. In a year punctuated by heightened uncertainty as investors attempted to navigate a confluence of risk factors, stock and bond correlations proved a significant challenge to traditional portfolios.
Gold has a longstanding reputation as an asset that holds its value during inflationary times. It also offers diversification benefits that can be useful in such conditions.
In this video, the best time in decades to invest in REITS, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will discuss the concept of FAST Graphs and analyze several REITs that he finds attractive.
In October, nominal home values increased for a 7th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 2nd straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $346,653, up 0.26% from the previous month and up 1.75% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.14% month-over-month and -4.77% year-over-year.
High mortgage rates continue to impact builder confidence as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell for a fourth consecutive month. With that said, recent macroeconomic data suggest improved conditions in the coming months. The index dropped 6 points from last month to 34, the index's lowest level since December 2022.
Inflation is edging back toward pre-pandemic rates in the US, but rent inflation still has a long way to go. To put it into numbers, the all-items consumer price index was just 3.2% higher in October than a year earlier, but the rent of primary residence index was up 7.2%.
The market for US Treasury securities is arguably the world’s most important: a haven for investors in turbulent times, and a benchmark for virtually all other assets.
Alternative Investments
2 Strategies to Capitalize on Increased Market Dispersion
After the underperformance of stocks and bonds last year, it’s no surprise that diversification strategies are a significant focus this year. Alternatives continue to garner advisor and investor interest as market dispersion grows, including managed futures and long/short strategies.
Alternative Allocations: Alternatives by Franklin Templeton—Access Granted
Franklin Templeton recently hosted due diligence meetings with financial advisors where Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, led discussions focused on alternative investments.
Regional-Bank Debt Is a Bargain to Buyers Betting Worst is Over
Money managers including Invesco Ltd. and Loop Capital Asset Management are bullish on regional-bank bonds, wagering that the debt will perform better than the broader market as fears about funding costs settle down.
Uncertainty Looms Over a November to Remember
November will be etched in the memories of investors as a remarkable month.
It Won’t Be a Repeat of the 1970’s
Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary.
Gold’s Q4 Rally Continues, Experts Calling for an Even Better 2024
The fourth quarter has seen a strong performance from gold. In early October, the price of gold stood at $1,820 per ounce, according to Kitco, and looked as if it would continue to drop in value as it had done the previous five months.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November Up 8.9%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 8.92%, after a loss of 2.20% in October. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — is signaling "cash", down from last month's final quadruple "cash" signal.
Pending Home Sales Fall to Record Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index fell 1.5% in October to 71.4, the index's lowest reading since the NAR began tracking data in 2001, and is down 8.5% compared to one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 2.0% last month.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in October
With the release of October's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.44% nominal and 3.33% real.
Citadel and Its Peers Are Piling Into the Same Trades. Regulators Are Taking Notice
Even Ken Griffin is a little worried. Multimanager funds like Griffin’s Citadel have come to dominate the hedge fund industry, riding a steady run of outperformance to oversee more than $1 trillion, including a healthy dose of leverage.
Real Estate: The Underrated Alts Segment
Real estate headlines seem to only focus on bad news right now, from remote work’s impact on offices to struggles for city center retail.
The Energy Transition, Part 3: Implications for Economies and Markets
There is broad agreement that economic damages will increase with warming, but there is substantial disagreement on the magnitude of these damages.
Commodities May Have Struggled, But Bright Spots Exist
Broad commodities have struggled this year. The S&P GSCI Index is down more than 5% year-to-date. However, there are still opportunities when investors dig a little deeper, according to Teucrium’s Senior Portfolio Specialist Jake Hanley.
Magnificence Beyond the Magnificent 7
Whether famous or infamous, the Magnificent 7 stocks have been 2023’s stock market story. However, the fundamentals of the Magnificent 7 aren't uniquely superior, and the breadth and depth of other growth opportunities seems historically large and attractive. In our latest insight, we complete an analysis of US companies with expected earnings growth greater than 25% and compare it against the Magnificent 7 stocks.
The Advantages of Free-Cash Flow in Portfolio Construction
Free-cash-flow yield is the surplus cash after expenses and investments divided by the price of the security. Free-cashflow yield has been used for a long time by active hedge funds. Now it has become part of the indexing landscape, competing for assets with other quantitative approaches. It has historically outperformed in markets that favored value stocks and shown resilience in growth markets. My guest today will explain why, in today's intangible asset-driven economy, traditional metrics like price to earnings and price to book face challenges, making free cash flow a more relevant valuation metric. We will discuss how advisors should think about free cash flow and the steps VictoryShares & Solutions has taken to enhance traditional approaches.
All investments involve some degree of risk.
What You Might Have Missed at Tuesday’s Alternatives Symposium
On November 28, 2023, VettaFi hosted an Alternatives Symposium with an excellent turnout of nearly 750 advisors and investors registered for the event.
A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall on Hedge Funds
Now that inflation is finally decelerating, regulators are increasingly turning their focus to financial stability.
What If Lending to Your Own Buyout Gets Sticky?
The private equity industry’s push into credit is so well advanced that no one bats an eyelid when the same buyout firm is invested in the debt and equity of the same portfolio company.
Bitcoin Retakes $38,000 While Rate Cut Expectations Increase
Bitcoin climbed back above $38,000 on Tuesday amid optimism the US central bank may be closer to lowering borrowing costs if inflation continues to decline.
The $7 Trillion ETF Boom Gets Blamed Again for Dumb Stock Moves
It’s the latest critique of the passive-investing boom: Fresh academic research claims that the relentless flood of index-chasing cash on Wall Street is distorting stock prices and causing extreme market moves.
Industry Experts Share Upbeat Crypto Outlook for 2024
Often misunderstood, crypto has an important role to play in the alternatives sleeve of a portfolio.
The Commodities Outlook Entering 2024
Commodities entered 2023 behind a strong performance in 2022. For investors revisiting their portfolios ahead of 2024, it may be worth assessing the commodities outlook. From energy to precious metals, commodities can add meaningful diversification to a portfolio.
U.S. Outlook: One Thing Leads to Another
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
Year in Review: 2023 ETF Predictions Report Card
What were the big ETF trends of 2023? David Mann, Global Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets, reviews some of his predictions for this year—and how they panned out.
Adyen-Led Fintech Comeback Faces Wall of Worries
The rebound in Adyen NV and its European fintech peers this month has been notable, but investors should brace for a bumpy road ahead.
China Is a Rich Country. It Can No Longer Cry Poor on Climate
At the time of the first major climate change conference, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, China was one of the least developed nations. Its per capita income was below Haiti, Niger and Pakistan.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Continues to Trend Upward in September
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.7% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 3.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.1% and the YoY was reduced to -2.9%.
Goldman Says Sharp Drop in Volatility Is Opportunity for Hedging
The recent sharp pullback in volatility as year-end approaches creates hedging opportunities given the cloudy outlook for equities, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
FHFA House Price Index Increases 0.6% in September
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in September, coming in at 414.8. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month and by 6.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.4% month-over-month and up 4.0% year-over-year.
Opportunities in Private Credit: Stepping in as Banks Step Out
As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
Eye Active ETFs to Ride Potential Rate Cuts
Don’t look now, but markets are once again getting excited about the prospect of potential rate cuts. Following months defined by rising rates, investors are looking forward to inflation cooling sufficiently for the Fed to finally cut.
Argentina: Is the Pendulum Swinging, Again?
When Argentina entered the 20th Century, its prospects looked bright. On a per person basis, its economy was on par with Canada and Sweden and about two-thirds of the United States.
New Ways for Advisors to Access Alternative Investments
With relentless market volatility and other stubborn headwinds, advisors must find an adequate portfolio balance for their clients. What role will alternative investments play in offsetting market challenges? In this episode, we dive into this question with Andrea Mody, U.S. wealth private markets head at Macquarie Asset Management. We discuss how Macquarie continues to be a trailblazer for the democratization of alternatives, how traditional asset managers are reorganizing to incorporate alternatives, the roadblocks for allocation and Andrea’s outlook for the space.
The Physical Limits to Society’s Progress
Our immense progress in improving society’s standard of living over the last several centuries was possible because of advances in the discovery and production of energy. To assume that will continue is a grave error.
Bitcoin Price Action Indicates More Upside Could Soon Arrive
With equity markets open just a half day, the day after Thanksgiving is usually a noneventful day in financial markets. However, something notable did occur last Friday: Bitcoin jumped to its highest prices in 18 months.
Commodities and Cryptocurrency Offer an Alternative
VettaFi will be hosting an Alternatives Symposium tomorrow, November 28. We are covering a range of alternative topics.
Is a Hedge Fund More Than Its Founder?
Is a hedge fund anything without its founder? Another batch of well-known hedge fund managers have sold out or moved to liquidate portfolios this month. Their legacies as entrepreneurs underscore the challenges of building a firm that outgrows the key risk-taker.
New Home Sales Fall More Than Expected in October
The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.
Private Equity's Bubble Vintage May Fizzle
Private equity firms that spent hundreds of billions of dollars on acquisitions at the top of the market risk a nasty hangover.
The Survival of the Republic
Thanksgiving brings to mind not only turkeys, family, and friends, but also should help us recall the remarkable ideas and philosophies that helped shape, and indeed were, the foundation for the United States of America as a Republic.
The Rise in Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Prices Captures the Mood of the 2023 Holiday Season
The 2023 holiday season is officially upon us. Happy Black Friday and Cyber Monday to those who observe!
Wall Street Throws Caution to the Wind to Keep Up With Stock Rally
It’s the major casualty of November’s sizzling stock rally: Investor caution.
Bond Traders Boost US Recession Bets as Growth Falters
Treasury investors are turning increasingly skeptical the Federal Reserve will deliver a soft landing for the US economy next year, elevating concern of a looming recession over the risks posed by inflation and a swelling budget deficit.
Margin Debt Down 6.7% in October; Third Straight Decline
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level fell for a third straight month to $635.28 billion. Margin debt is down 6.7% month-over-month (MoM) and down 2.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 6.7% MoM and down 5.3% YoY.
Annuities Are Back in Fashion, But Are They Safe?
Every time interest rates go up there is a flurry of demand for a product that has been around at least since the Roman Empire — annuities. The insurance industry has already seen rapid growth in annuity sales since 2021 and if rates remain at or move above current levels, demand seems poised to explode.
Goldman Alums Set Up Matchmaking Platform for Private Credit
Two former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers want to take the $1.6 trillion private credit revolution from Wall Street to Main Street.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Pares Holdings of Top Pick Bitcoin Trust
While Cathie Wood has been touting her bullish stance on Bitcoin in recent months, her firm ARK Investment Management actually cut holdings in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
Struggling Cities Face More Pain From AI Boom
Artificial intelligence is likely to transform our world in many ways, but one that hasn’t received much attention is the technology’s looming impact on real estate. As AI becomes an essential component of both business and daily life, the value of places where those who work on AI want to live will rise, provided these locales have reasonable infrastructure.
Climate Funds Look to Regain Footing After Three Down Years
Growth prospects for renewable energy will be a central plank of discussions when world leaders start gathering next week in Dubai for COP28.
Falling UK Inflation: What Are the Implications for Pension Savings?
While the fall in inflation is welcome, the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage borrowers still has some way to play out. The reduction in inflation will help DB members that are drawing on their pension. Pension trustees should consider their investment strategy and support members with their retirement planning.
Why Asia Matters
CIO designate Sean Taylor gives his take on what Asia has to offer global and emerging markets investors, from growth, to diversification, to innovation.
Is a Hedge Fund-Style Investment Right for You?
Former Bridgewater Associates LP executive Bob Elliott’s plan for exchange-traded funds that employ hedge fund strategies has sharpened the debate about whether retail investors should have access to such approaches.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Win Is Still Only Half the Battle
News that a Washington DC Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale Investments LLC over the Securities and Exchange Commission has ignited hope that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund will soon be available. Bitcoin prices jumped.
Durable Goods Orders Fall More Than Expected in October
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell more than expected in October, coming in at $279.44B. This is a 5.4% decrease from the previous month and is more than the expected 3.1% decline. The series is up 0.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% from one year ago.
October CPI Inflation: Just What the Dr. Recommended
October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.
Are Office REITs Good Investments Today?
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will delve into the world of office real estate investment trusts (REITs), and explore whether there are any good investment opportunities in this sector.
Wood’s Ark, 21Shares Unveil Fee on Pending Spot Bitcoin ETF
Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management and digital-asset firm 21Shares just became the first major applicant in the US spot Bitcoin ETF race to list a fee on their planned offering.
If You're in Cash, You Risk Missing Out, Bond Managers of $2.5 Trillion Say
For investors stashing record sums in cash, US bond managers overseeing a combined $2.5 trillion have a bit of advice: It’s time to put that money to work.
Existing Home Sales Fall Further, Still at Lowest Level Since 2010
Existing home sales fell further, remaining at their lowest level since 2010, as lack of inventory and high mortgage rates continued to impact sales. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.1% from September to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 3.90 million. Existing home sales are down 14.6% compared to one year ago.
Chart of the Week: What Alternatives Are Worthy of Attention?
The S&P 500 has rallied in recent days and was up close to 20% for the year. However, heading into 2024, many advisors are exploring a range of investment ideas that offer exposure beyond the stock market.
Using Single-Country ETFS as Part of a Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategy
Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, sheds light on the benefits of single-country ETF allocations against what has been a rocky macro backdrop and discusses ways to re-evaluate potential opportunities in terms of tax-loss decision-making.
4 Weak Spots in the Current Market
Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.
Today’s Yield Curve Steepening Is Not Different This Time, It’s Not The Same
The steepening yield curve has grabbed my attention. Historically, it's been a reliable investment signal. However, as I discuss in my article below, today's might not be occurring for the same reasons as in the past. It's not that it's different this time. It just might not be the same (so far).
Fourth Quarter 2023 Fixed-Income Sector Views
In this issue of Fixed-Income Sector Views, our Sector Teams identify positive technical trends that have helped to support spreads, but remain vigilant for signs of credit deterioration as the slowing economy and the bite of higher rates start to be felt by issuers.
Microsoft Ends Weekend of OpenAI Drama With Coup of Its Own
After three days of high drama at the world’s most closely watched startup, which many compared to a coup, Microsoft Corp. capped the weekend with one of its own: The software giant hired ousted OpenAI chief Sam Altman.
The Risk of Anchoring Investment Expectations to a Market High
Welcome to the world of anchoring, where your serenity takes a back seat to anxiety.
Breaking the Chains of Time
Investors should embrace a genuine long-term perspective, extending their time horizons to at least 20 to 30 years. The traditional notion of long-term investing (five to 10 years) may fall short of realizing the full benefits of long-term strategies.
The New “New” Alpha
Picking the “right” stock is akin to betting on a game; not only must one pick the right team (beta), but also by how much (alpha).
Cathie Wood and Walmart Aren’t Speaking the Same Deflation Language
The deflationistas have been working themselves into a tizzy since Walmart Inc. Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon warned of a period of declining prices at the big-box retailer in the months to come.
Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?
Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”
5 Financial-Related Dynamics We’re Grateful For
Following the surge in inflation, the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle since the 1980s and multi-decade lows in business and consumer confidence, calls for a U.S. recession have been prevalent all year.
Gaining Global Exposure to Gold Miners
Using LOGICLY data, we look at two of Direxion’s leveraged gold miners ETFs and their key features.
The Basics of Short Selling
Investing in the stock market typically brings to mind the strategy of buying low and selling high. However, there’s another, somewhat counterintuitive method some investors employ: short selling.
Portfolio Rebalancing, Part 2: The Private Markets Puzzle
Portfolios with large allocations to alternatives can have many benefits. However, alternative allocations can deviate meaningfully from policy, particularly during periods of equity-market turbulence.
The Energy Transition, Part 2: The Transition Challenge
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are difficult to replace due to their availability, affordability and energy density. Low-carbon alternatives, like solar energy, need large amounts of space to produce comparable amounts of energy to oil.
Modeling the Benefits of Managed Futures Portfolio Inclusion
Though inflation continues to cool, there remains a potentially longer road ahead to get to the Fed’s desired 2%. In an environment of uncertainty and elevated inflation, the inclusion of managed futures in a portfolio made a significant difference in the last few years as modeled by DBi recently.
Dear Miami, Taking Wall Street From NYC Won’t Be Easy
For the past decade, South Florida’s politicians and development officials have fanned dreams — which long felt like delusions — of the region reinventing itself as some sort of “Wall Street South.”
US Treasury Market Is Resilient Despite ‘Shocks,’ Official Says
The Treasury Department’s top domestic finance official said the US government debt market has functioned well during a year of outsized interest-rate volatility, a regional banking crisis and the recent hack of the world’s largest bank.
A Time of Gratitude and Opportunity
The run-off election looks tight in Argentina, where I’m attending a Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) event in Buenos Aires.
‘Prime Is Fine’ in Real Estate. Except When It’s Not
A charismatic entrepreneur pulls in wealthy investors to amass a portfolio of some of the finest prime real estate. Banks and bondholders are persuaded to provide the leverage. What could possibly go wrong?
A $100 Billion ETF Flood Offers Little Solace to Active Managers
At first blush, a record $100 billion flood into actively managed exchange-traded funds this year raises a tantalizing prospect: A revival of stock picking even as only Big Tech names outperform the market. Yet, a look under the hood of popular ETFs shows the boom is almost entirely taking place in passive-looking trades.
Housing Starts Rise 1.9% in October
In October, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.345 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from September and a 4.2% decline compared to one year ago.
Building Permits Increase 1.1% in October
In October, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.450 million. This marks a 1.1% increase from September and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
The Problem of Mixed Market Signals and Correlations
Confounding market and economic signals persist as the year’s end draws near. In a year punctuated by heightened uncertainty as investors attempted to navigate a confluence of risk factors, stock and bond correlations proved a significant challenge to traditional portfolios.
Should Investors Look to Gold for 2024?
Gold has a longstanding reputation as an asset that holds its value during inflationary times. It also offers diversification benefits that can be useful in such conditions.
This Is The Best Time In Decades To Invest In REITs
In this video, the best time in decades to invest in REITS, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will discuss the concept of FAST Graphs and analyze several REITs that he finds attractive.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls in October
In October, nominal home values increased for a 7th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 2nd straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $346,653, up 0.26% from the previous month and up 1.75% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.14% month-over-month and -4.77% year-over-year.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Down Again
High mortgage rates continue to impact builder confidence as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell for a fourth consecutive month. With that said, recent macroeconomic data suggest improved conditions in the coming months. The index dropped 6 points from last month to 34, the index's lowest level since December 2022.
Rent Hikes of 2021 and 2022 to Boost CPI Into 2026
Inflation is edging back toward pre-pandemic rates in the US, but rent inflation still has a long way to go. To put it into numbers, the all-items consumer price index was just 3.2% higher in October than a year earlier, but the rent of primary residence index was up 7.2%.
Three Things to Prevent a Treasury Market Meltdown
The market for US Treasury securities is arguably the world’s most important: a haven for investors in turbulent times, and a benchmark for virtually all other assets.