Brex, a credit-card startup, has seen a surge in usage of its products following this year’s regional banking turmoil.
Ross Perot Jr., whose family is one of the largest independent property developers in the country, warned of a looming real estate recession if banks don’t start lending again.
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
As an advisor-growth solution, SmartAdvisor™ continuously focuses on helping advisors grow their practices. Last month, in April 2023, it acquired DeftSales, a leading prospect engagement company for financial professionals. DeftSales and SmartAsset™ will combine to offer a robust user interface that is fully compliant, including automated campaigns and analytics, which allow advisors to spend more time honing their communications and improving their skills.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.
A two-day M&A conference highlighted the growing influence of private-equity investors in the RIA business.
The latest artificial intelligence hype is powering a massive surge in the stock market on bets that a new era of innovation is nigh.
Stock investors who planned for one thing in 2023 are getting something else entirely. Now, with the tech-obsessed market at risk of running away from them, the race is on to catch up.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are the next step in financial innovation. The government will do what it deems in its best interests. CBDCs will replace physical currency; it's just a question of when.
The stresses in the CRE market do not appear to pose a systemic threat to the global banking system.
Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Advising professional athletes is an exciting and rewarding experience. It also presents unique challenges that require a different approach than working with more traditional clients.
Nvidia Corp. is poised to become the world’s first chipmaker with a $1 trillion market capitalization, joining an exclusive club of American companies with a valuation that high.
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for March. The index reached a record high last month, coming in at 398.0. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 3.6%. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% in March and up 0.2% year-over-year.
As the debt ceiling fight in Washington heads down to the wire with the risk of a technical default looming, investors are growing nervous.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
According to the company’s investor relations page on this REIT, Simon Property Trust (SPG) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company.
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for April. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.
With the release of this morning's report on April's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.36% nominal and 2.87% real.
An end-of-week feeding frenzy in options of the world’s biggest companies has emerged as two of the hottest trends on Wall Street collide.
Rick Rieder and team argue that a series of small, but more probable, wins in fixed income can pave the way for portfolios to outperform benchmarks in 2023.
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index remained at 78.9, representing a 0.0% change from last month, lower than the expected 0.5% increase. Pending home sales are down 20.3% compared to one year ago.
The two primary styles of dividend investing are growth and yield. In the latter, investors embrace stocks with what are deemed above-average yields — often from slower-growth sectors, such as utilities and real estate.
Cities and states may have their work cut out for them as they explore solutions to preserve their commercial tax bases and maintain the vibrancy of their downtowns.
The 60/40 portfolio – and diversification in general – is undeniably justified.
Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”
To better understand the state of play, VettaFi’s financial futurist Dave Nadig met with Canopy founder Eric Golden for a discussion on crypto’s prospects.
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
One of the advantages of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compared to other investment vehicles is their relative liquidity. But what is liquidity for an ETF? How does that liquidity actually give ETF investors the upper hand, compared to other assets?
One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy.
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.
Several key economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy. Policymakers and advisors closely monitor these indicators to understand the direction of interest rates.
This morning's release of the April new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 683K, up 4.1% month-over-month from a revised 656K in March. This is above the Investing.com forecast of 663K and the highest level in over a year. The median home price is now at $420,800, down $35K from March on a nominal basis.
According to Buffett, the US economy just went through the “most extraordinary economic period since World War II.” That’s a heck of a statement.
Many investors view real estate as an attractive long-term investment opportunity that plays an important role in portfolio diversification. With that in mind, Columbia Threadneedle Investments recently announced the expansion of its exchange-traded fund offerings with the launch of the Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (Ticker: CRED). The fund offers investors and allocators an accessible, research-driven way to gain exposure to the real estate asset class. REITS have a history of low correlations and attractive long-term returns and have a strong historical performance record in high inflation. According to a recent Columbia Threadneedle survey, 93% of financial advisors plan to maintain or increase their real estate allocations over the next 12 to 24 months.
The distinction between futures-based ETFs and crypto equity ETFs is clear when you look closely at the two. But even when examining them closely, it may be difficult to distinguish between the different types of blockchain/crypto equity ETFs because of similarities with fintech, metaverse, and Web3 concepts.
No piece of technology is more crucial than the microchip. Its supply was central to the cause of the post-COVID-19 inflation, and the stability of the U.S.-China relationship hinges on its manufacture.
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
Deep in the bowels of Wall Street, there’s a surprisingly successful counterfeiting operation underway: The world’s largest banks have created a booming business churning out imitation quant trades.
Credit conditions are tightening in both Europe and the United States. Our analysis follows in our mid-quarter update, Tightening Credit.
The U.S. economy is likely slowing down, and a recession seems likely in the 12-18 month time horizon.
An in-depth analysis of hedge fund performance demonstrates that, over the past 15 years, lower-beta hedge fund styles have generally achieved higher alpha, aligning with investors' objectives of maximizing returns and diversification.
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
Private equity has traditionally been dominated by large institutions, but is gaining ground in individual investor portfolios, helped by a growing secondary market that has made allocating to private equity easier.
April's ZHVI came in at $339.048, up 0.34% from March and up 3.30% from April 2022. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in home value. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.21% month-over-month and -4.45% year-over-year.
This morning's release of the April existing home sales showed that sales continued to fall for a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million units from the previous month's 4.43 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% month-over-month decrease and was well below the forecast of a 0.1% increase in sales. Existing home sales are now down 23.2% compared to one year ago.
The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% interest-rate hike has likely capped one of its most aggressive policy-tightening cycles in 40 years. And the cumulative 5% policy rate increase in just over a year is now starting to have an effect on rate-sensitive sectors and inflation.
Investor indifference to the threat of a prolonged debt-ceiling impasse has left a handful of tail-risk strategies almost too cheap to pass up.
The current economic and investing environment remains one of the most challenging and difficult to navigate in recent times. We have stubborn inflation, economic resilience, geopolitical tensions, tight labour markets, rising interest rates, higher for longer monetary policy, QT, bank failures, overwhelming bearishness and now, issues surrounding the debt ceiling.
Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their April findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
Rising rates in today's fixed-income markets have led to more attractive bond prices and higher yields, alleviating some of the challenges facing income investors.
Alphabet Inc. is back in the game. The artificial intelligence game, that is.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.401M was just above Investing.com's forecast of 1.400M and is a 2.2% increase from the March's revised figure of 1.371M. Housing starts are down 22.3% compared to this time last year.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.416M came in below Investing.com's forecast of 1.437M and is a 1.5% decrease from March’s revised figure of 1.437M. Building permits are down 21.1% compared to one year ago.
The future of money is uncertain, and speculation about what comes next is all over the place. The Federal Reserve note "dollar" is the world's reserve currency, but its seat on that throne is no longer secure.
If 2022 was the zenith of the post financial crisis bull market, the intervening year and a quarter is a relatively short period from which to conclude that a turn in the secular tide has taken place. That said, several indicators have already begun to signal a change in trend.
No one is bragging about the index fund they own to their friends.
Equita Financial Network is helping women build independent financial advisory firms efficiently with tangible, meaningful support.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is at 631.95 billion, down 2.1% month-over-month (MoM) and down 18.2% year-over-year (YoY). However after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 2.6% MoM and down 22.1% YoY.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the US is already paying a price for its failure to raise the federal debt limit, as talks between the White House and lawmakers from both parties continued into a second week.
Billionaire investing titans Stanley Druckenmiller and David Tepper loaded up on stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom during the first quarter.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (45) at 50, up 5 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last ten months.
Influence, by Robert Cialdini, has impacted my professional and personal life for more than 30 years.
New research shows that investors can profit by exploiting “momentum” – the notion that stocks or factors that experienced good performance will continue to do so, and vice versa.
We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.
What follows a technical default? We hope we will not need to find out.
The risk of a US debt default is greater than it’s ever been, threatening to tip global markets into a brand-new world of pain. For investors, there are few places to hide other than the oldest hedge in the book: gold.
Over the next decade, the total return for U.S. or global equities will be nearly zero, according to Felix Zulauf.
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.
Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.
The Banking emergency arising with mid-sized, regional banks is a direct consequence of policy decisions. Examine the causes of bank failures in 2023 and the potential for larger contagion.
Jamie Dimon said it’s time for regulators to help put an end to the turmoil in the banking industry, but he’s already predicting policymakers will take away the wrong lessons from this year’s upheaval.
China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly, China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into question.
The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.
We are presented with this decision in finance a lot. There is a small probability of something bad happening and a large probability that everything will be fine. What do you do to insure yourself against something bad happening? Because there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Fixed-income markets are likely to be volatile given macro-driven risks and the higher cost of borrowing.
Markets will likely get increasingly unsettled as the X-date approaches without resolution. Congress has about four weeks to hatch a deal. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at five possible scenarios and relates important considerations for each.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.
Alternative Investments
Fintech Brex’s Revenue Surges After Regional Bank Turmoil
Brex, a credit-card startup, has seen a surge in usage of its products following this year’s regional banking turmoil.
Billionaire Perot Warns of Real Estate Recession as Loans Dry Up
Ross Perot Jr., whose family is one of the largest independent property developers in the country, warned of a looming real estate recession if banks don’t start lending again.
The Far-Reaching Effects of Commercial Real Estate’s Downward Spiral
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Markets Now Accept Rate Cuts Unlikely
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
How SmartAsset Connects Advisors to Prospects
As an advisor-growth solution, SmartAdvisor™ continuously focuses on helping advisors grow their practices. Last month, in April 2023, it acquired DeftSales, a leading prospect engagement company for financial professionals. DeftSales and SmartAsset™ will combine to offer a robust user interface that is fully compliant, including automated campaigns and analytics, which allow advisors to spend more time honing their communications and improving their skills.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes May Up 0.25%
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.
More RIA Consolidation Ahead
A two-day M&A conference highlighted the growing influence of private-equity investors in the RIA business.
Hedge Funds Are Deploying ChatGPT to Handle All the Grunt Work
The latest artificial intelligence hype is powering a massive surge in the stock market on bets that a new era of innovation is nigh.
Stock Traders Turn to Options for Desperate Chase to Catch the Tech Rally
Stock investors who planned for one thing in 2023 are getting something else entirely. Now, with the tech-obsessed market at risk of running away from them, the race is on to catch up.
Central Bank Digital Currencies are Coming
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are the next step in financial innovation. The government will do what it deems in its best interests. CBDCs will replace physical currency; it's just a question of when.
Is the Commercial Real Estate Market a Potential Threat to the Banking System?
The stresses in the CRE market do not appear to pose a systemic threat to the global banking system.
Is This The Turning Point For Energy Markets?
Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.
The Resilience of the U.S. Economy: It’s All About Employment, and the Consumer
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
How I Built a Practice for Professional Athletes
Advising professional athletes is an exciting and rewarding experience. It also presents unique challenges that require a different approach than working with more traditional clients.
Nvidia Charges Toward $1 Trillion Market Value in Massive AI Bet
Nvidia Corp. is poised to become the world’s first chipmaker with a $1 trillion market capitalization, joining an exclusive club of American companies with a valuation that high.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Rebound Continued in March
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
FHFA House Price Index Reaches Record High in March
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for March. The index reached a record high last month, coming in at 398.0. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 3.6%. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% in March and up 0.2% year-over-year.
Looming Debt Ceiling Deal to Leave Dollar Locked in Downtrend
As the debt ceiling fight in Washington heads down to the wire with the risk of a technical default looming, investors are growing nervous.
Bull vs. Bear: Is There a Future for Fossil Fuel Investments?
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.
Making Cent$ Of the Dollar: Understanding the Challenges to Its Global Reserve Currency Status
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
SIC Mix
Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.
The AI Era Unleashed: How NVIDIA’s Stock Boom Reflects The Future Of Tech
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
This A Rated REIT Just Increased Their Dividend Offering a 7% Current Yield
According to the company’s investor relations page on this REIT, Simon Property Trust (SPG) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company.
The "Real" Goods on the April Durable Goods Data
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for April. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
VettaFi Voices On: One Year as VettaFi
Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Flat in April
With the release of this morning's report on April's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.36% nominal and 2.87% real.
Friday Is Now an Options Feeding Frenzy as Big Tech Meets Zero-Day Options
An end-of-week feeding frenzy in options of the world’s biggest companies has emerged as two of the hottest trends on Wall Street collide.
It’s Time to Start Playing Investment “Small Ball” in Portfolios
Rick Rieder and team argue that a series of small, but more probable, wins in fixed income can pave the way for portfolios to outperform benchmarks in 2023.
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
An End To Tightening Supports Gold
Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.
Pending Home Sales Unchanged in April
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index remained at 78.9, representing a 0.0% change from last month, lower than the expected 0.5% increase. Pending home sales are down 20.3% compared to one year ago.
Examining the Importance of Dividend Growth
The two primary styles of dividend investing are growth and yield. In the latter, investors embrace stocks with what are deemed above-average yields — often from slower-growth sectors, such as utilities and real estate.
The Urban Challenge: Can Cities Fill the Tax Gap Created by Empty Offices?
Cities and states may have their work cut out for them as they explore solutions to preserve their commercial tax bases and maintain the vibrancy of their downtowns.
Long Live the 60/40 Portfolio
The 60/40 portfolio – and diversification in general – is undeniably justified.
Money, Banking, and Markets – Connecting the Dots
Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”
VettaFi Viewpoints: Dave Nadig & Canopy’s Eric Golden Talk Crypto
To better understand the state of play, VettaFi’s financial futurist Dave Nadig met with Canopy founder Eric Golden for a discussion on crypto’s prospects.
Public or Private? A Strategic Question
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
ETF Liquidity: What Is It and How Does It Benefit Investors?
One of the advantages of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) compared to other investment vehicles is their relative liquidity. But what is liquidity for an ETF? How does that liquidity actually give ETF investors the upper hand, compared to other assets?
There is Something Rotten in China
One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy.
Hedge Funds Rush to Buy Stocks on S&P 500’s Momentum
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
Wheat, Gold and the Pursuit of a Zero-Correlation Investment
Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.
It's the Economy That Matters: Most Recent Housing Market Trends
Several key economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy. Policymakers and advisors closely monitor these indicators to understand the direction of interest rates.
New Home Sales Jump 4.1% in April
This morning's release of the April new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 683K, up 4.1% month-over-month from a revised 656K in March. This is above the Investing.com forecast of 663K and the highest level in over a year. The median home price is now at $420,800, down $35K from March on a nominal basis.
Buffett’s Calling a Recession—and He’s Probably Right
According to Buffett, the US economy just went through the “most extraordinary economic period since World War II.” That’s a heck of a statement.
A New, Low-Cost REIT ETF
Many investors view real estate as an attractive long-term investment opportunity that plays an important role in portfolio diversification. With that in mind, Columbia Threadneedle Investments recently announced the expansion of its exchange-traded fund offerings with the launch of the Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (Ticker: CRED). The fund offers investors and allocators an accessible, research-driven way to gain exposure to the real estate asset class. REITS have a history of low correlations and attractive long-term returns and have a strong historical performance record in high inflation. According to a recent Columbia Threadneedle survey, 93% of financial advisors plan to maintain or increase their real estate allocations over the next 12 to 24 months.
Surrounding Crypto ETFs: Metaverse, Web3, and More
The distinction between futures-based ETFs and crypto equity ETFs is clear when you look closely at the two. But even when examining them closely, it may be difficult to distinguish between the different types of blockchain/crypto equity ETFs because of similarities with fintech, metaverse, and Web3 concepts.
Our Tenuous – and Crucial – Microchip Dependency
No piece of technology is more crucial than the microchip. Its supply was central to the cause of the post-COVID-19 inflation, and the stability of the U.S.-China relationship hinges on its manufacture.
Real Money Supply and The Real Price of Petroleum, Examined
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Bitcoin’s Rise To Prominence On Full Display At This Year’s Miami Conference
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
Wall Street Built a $370 Billion Business Cloning Quant Trades
Deep in the bowels of Wall Street, there’s a surprisingly successful counterfeiting operation underway: The world’s largest banks have created a booming business churning out imitation quant trades.
Mid-Quarter Update: Tightening Credit
Credit conditions are tightening in both Europe and the United States. Our analysis follows in our mid-quarter update, Tightening Credit.
Final Approach: May 2023 Economic Update
The U.S. economy is likely slowing down, and a recession seems likely in the 12-18 month time horizon.
When High Alpha Met Low Beta
An in-depth analysis of hedge fund performance demonstrates that, over the past 15 years, lower-beta hedge fund styles have generally achieved higher alpha, aligning with investors' objectives of maximizing returns and diversification.
Income Fund Update: Building Resilience and Harnessing Yield in High Quality Assets
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
Simplifying Private Equity Secondaries
Private equity has traditionally been dominated by large institutions, but is gaining ground in individual investor portfolios, helped by a growing secondary market that has made allocating to private equity easier.
Zillow Home Value Index: Increases for Second Straight Month
April's ZHVI came in at $339.048, up 0.34% from March and up 3.30% from April 2022. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in home value. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.21% month-over-month and -4.45% year-over-year.
Existing Home Sales Fall Again in April
This morning's release of the April existing home sales showed that sales continued to fall for a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million units from the previous month's 4.43 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% month-over-month decrease and was well below the forecast of a 0.1% increase in sales. Existing home sales are now down 23.2% compared to one year ago.
Connecting the Disinflation Dots in Multi-Asset Strategies
The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% interest-rate hike has likely capped one of its most aggressive policy-tightening cycles in 40 years. And the cumulative 5% policy rate increase in just over a year is now starting to have an effect on rate-sensitive sectors and inflation.
Debt-Ceiling Tail Hedges Are ‘Cheap Lottery Tickets,’ Bank of America Says
Investor indifference to the threat of a prolonged debt-ceiling impasse has left a handful of tail-risk strategies almost too cheap to pass up.
Your Complete Guide Through The Current Macro Landscape
The current economic and investing environment remains one of the most challenging and difficult to navigate in recent times. We have stubborn inflation, economic resilience, geopolitical tensions, tight labour markets, rising interest rates, higher for longer monetary policy, QT, bank failures, overwhelming bearishness and now, issues surrounding the debt ceiling.
A Long-Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their April findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
Getting Income From a Portfolio Is Easier These Days but Risks Remain. Model Portfolios May Be the Answer.
Rising rates in today's fixed-income markets have led to more attractive bond prices and higher yields, alleviating some of the challenges facing income investors.
Alphabet Adds $115 Billion in Value After Defying AI Doubters
Alphabet Inc. is back in the game. The artificial intelligence game, that is.
Housing Starts Rise 2.2% in April
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.401M was just above Investing.com's forecast of 1.400M and is a 2.2% increase from the March's revised figure of 1.371M. Housing starts are down 22.3% compared to this time last year.
Building Permits Fall 1.5% in April
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.416M came in below Investing.com's forecast of 1.437M and is a 1.5% decrease from March’s revised figure of 1.437M. Building permits are down 21.1% compared to one year ago.
Holding Gold Is Like Holding a Wildcard
The future of money is uncertain, and speculation about what comes next is all over the place. The Federal Reserve note "dollar" is the world's reserve currency, but its seat on that throne is no longer secure.
Transitioning from Secular Bull to Bear?
If 2022 was the zenith of the post financial crisis bull market, the intervening year and a quarter is a relatively short period from which to conclude that a turn in the secular tide has taken place. That said, several indicators have already begun to signal a change in trend.
Why Clients are Attracted to Complex Investments
No one is bragging about the index fund they own to their friends.
Less Talk, More Action to Support Female Advisors
Equita Financial Network is helping women build independent financial advisory firms efficiently with tangible, meaningful support.
Margin Debt Down 2.1% in April
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is at 631.95 billion, down 2.1% month-over-month (MoM) and down 18.2% year-over-year (YoY). However after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 2.6% MoM and down 22.1% YoY.
Yellen Warns US Paying Price as Negotiators Battle on Debt Limit
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the US is already paying a price for its failure to raise the federal debt limit, as talks between the White House and lawmakers from both parties continued into a second week.
Stan Druckenmiller, David Tepper Lead Family Offices Betting on AI
Billionaire investing titans Stanley Druckenmiller and David Tepper loaded up on stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom during the first quarter.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Lack of Existing Inventory Boosts Builder Confidence
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (45) at 50, up 5 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last ten months.
The Sales Book that Helped Me for 30+ Years
Influence, by Robert Cialdini, has impacted my professional and personal life for more than 30 years.
Momentum Versus Factor Momentum: Which Dominates?
New research shows that investors can profit by exploiting “momentum” – the notion that stocks or factors that experienced good performance will continue to do so, and vice versa.
U.S. Debt Stand-off To Add to Volatility
We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.
Debt Ceiling: High Risk, Low Reward
What follows a technical default? We hope we will not need to find out.
Debt-Limit Default Risk Is Higher Than Ever. How Can You Safeguard Your Wealth?
The risk of a US debt default is greater than it’s ever been, threatening to tip global markets into a brand-new world of pain. For investors, there are few places to hide other than the oldest hedge in the book: gold.
Felix Zulauf Predicts a Decade of Zero Returns for Equities
Over the next decade, the total return for U.S. or global equities will be nearly zero, according to Felix Zulauf.
Inflation Continued its Disinflationary Path in April...
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.
Debt Ceiling Standoff
Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.
The Danger Beneath the Surface: How Bad Policy Led to Bank Failures
The Banking emergency arising with mid-sized, regional banks is a direct consequence of policy decisions. Examine the causes of bank failures in 2023 and the potential for larger contagion.
Jamie Dimon Says US Needs to 'Finish' the Bank Crisis
Jamie Dimon said it’s time for regulators to help put an end to the turmoil in the banking industry, but he’s already predicting policymakers will take away the wrong lessons from this year’s upheaval.
China’s Soft Reopening
China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly, China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into question.
Federal Reserve: Pause or Peak?
The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.
The Probability of Something Bad Happening
We are presented with this decision in finance a lot. There is a small probability of something bad happening and a large probability that everything will be fine. What do you do to insure yourself against something bad happening? Because there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Financial Stability Risk and Recession Odds Rise
Fixed-income markets are likely to be volatile given macro-driven risks and the higher cost of borrowing.
Debt Ceiling Drama: We’re in for a Nail-Biter
Markets will likely get increasingly unsettled as the X-date approaches without resolution. Congress has about four weeks to hatch a deal. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at five possible scenarios and relates important considerations for each.
Is Your Fixed Income Allocation in Order?
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Commercial Real Estate: Going Granular
Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.