Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
The January final report came in at 64.9, up 5.2 (8.7%) from the December final. Investing.com had forecast 64.6. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 24% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 23% below its geometric mean.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
BuzzFeed Inc. shares surged by a record on news that the digital-media company plans to use OpenAI to bolster some of its content creation.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI is a price series developed by the Atlanta Fed to capture the price of items that change the most frequently.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
For Americans with a New Year’s resolution to trade in their gas furnace or water heater for climate-friendly heat pumps, a word of caution: Generous Inflation Reduction Act rebates for home electrification took effect on Jan. 1, but they won’t actually be available to homeowners until year’s end or 2024 at the earliest, according the US Department of Energy.
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
US dollar cycles are long.
The Biden administration is under pressure from Capitol Hill lawmakers and student debt advocates to develop contingency plans to cancel billions of dollars in student debt and to move forward quickly if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s initial executive action.
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
The layoff announcements coming lately from the chief executive officers of big technology companies all contain variations on the theme of “we hired too many people during the pandemic,” expressed with varying degrees of contrition.
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
It pays to parse the language of any company’s earnings report, but perhaps more so for Tesla Inc. You could say it’s in the corporate genes.
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.49 in December from -0.51 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, but two categories improved from November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14 in November.
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The US Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) increased in January to 46.6 from 45 in December, representing a slowing economy but slightly less pessimistic than expected and better than the month before.
Older advisors need to step aside and make room for the up and comers.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Two major issues clients should consider in creating their own long-term care plan are where they will live and how they will pay for the care they are likely to need.
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
Paying down student debt or saving for retirement can seem like mutually exclusive goals. A little-known workplace benefit could soon allow more workers to do both.
Microsoft Corp. is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, whose artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT has lit up the internet since its introduction in November, amassing more than a million users within days and touching off a fresh debate over the role of AI in the workplace.
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
To determine the places where affluent Americans give the most to charity, we compared 384 metro areas.
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Investors, economists and journalists have been talking incessantly about recession for the better part of the past year, and they’re all tired of it.
Artificial intelligence advances in a manner that’s hard for the human mind to grasp.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
Enforcing big, complex change within an organization is an ongoing struggle, and the rate of success is alarmingly low. What is the challenge?
Smart Beta
Performance Persistence Matters
Are persistent outperformance and long-term alpha closely linked or is it possible to deliver alpha without being persistent?
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Historic Crash for Memory Chips Threatens to Wipe Out Earnings
The memory-chip sector, famous for its boom-and-bust cycles, had changed its ways.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Why Have Equal-Weighted Portfolios Outperformed the Market?
Equal-weighted portfolios have long outperformed cap-weighted funds. Conventional wisdom is that was because of the small-cap factor, but new research shows more is at play.
Dollar's Decline Is a Rare Nasdaq Tailwind as Earnings Loom
While tech investors have plenty of issues to worry about as the sector heads into a key week for corporate earnings, one notable headwind from last year has eased in recent months: the dollar.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Fed's Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up 8% in January, Beats Forecast
The January final report came in at 64.9, up 5.2 (8.7%) from the December final. Investing.com had forecast 64.6. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 24% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 23% below its geometric mean.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Panasonic Sees Potential for Another EV Battery Plant in US
Elon Musk’s response to wavering demand and recession risk is pretty clear: slash prices, keep increasing capacity and try to continue growing even if it means sacrificing profit margin in the short term.
BuzzFeed Shares Surge 120% on Plans to Embrace OpenAI
BuzzFeed Inc. shares surged by a record on news that the digital-media company plans to use OpenAI to bolster some of its content creation.
Key Inflation Gauge Cools Further, Paving Way for Smaller Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Investors Flock to European Stocks Leaving US Behind, BofA Says
Investors are chasing European stocks at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while US equity inflows remain muted amid concerns of a recession, according to Bank of America Corp.
Wall Street Rides Loan-Market Rally to Sell Risky Buyout Debt
Slowly but surely, investment bankers from New York to London are chipping away at the tens of billions of dollars in leveraged buyout debt that remains famously stuck on their balance sheets.
Debt-Ceiling Saga Puts the Treasury’s Financing Estimates Under Scrutiny
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Things in Atlanta are Dropping Like a Stone
The Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI is a price series developed by the Atlanta Fed to capture the price of items that change the most frequently.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
Looking for Inflation Reduction Act Rebates to Go Green? Get Ready to Wait
For Americans with a New Year’s resolution to trade in their gas furnace or water heater for climate-friendly heat pumps, a word of caution: Generous Inflation Reduction Act rebates for home electrification took effect on Jan. 1, but they won’t actually be available to homeowners until year’s end or 2024 at the earliest, according the US Department of Energy.
How Does Donating to Charity Reduce Taxes?
Here’s an article to help clients better understand the tax benefits of charitable contributions.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
White House Under Pressure to Develop a 'Plan B' on Student Debt
The Biden administration is under pressure from Capitol Hill lawmakers and student debt advocates to develop contingency plans to cancel billions of dollars in student debt and to move forward quickly if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s initial executive action.
Tesla Gets $5 Billion Credit Line in Sign It's Nearing Investment-Grade Status
Tesla Inc. has secured a new $5 billion revolving credit facility, another sign that the company is nearing investment-grade status.
US Economy Shows Slowdown Signs After Growing 2.9% Last Quarter
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
Big Tech Binged on Workers During Covid. Now, the Purge
The layoff announcements coming lately from the chief executive officers of big technology companies all contain variations on the theme of “we hired too many people during the pandemic,” expressed with varying degrees of contrition.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
Funding Special Needs Clients with ABLE Accounts
Special needs trusts and ABLE accounts are the pillars of special needs funding. I have a professional here to discuss the differences between them and how each can be used to maximize financial resources. This includes protecting government benefits, understanding eligibility requirements, guidelines for use, and funding options. The discussion will explain how you can best support families to provide quality of life and a lifetime of care.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Was Flat
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Why the Fed Should Raise Rates by Half a Percent
Having oscillated between anticipating another 50-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve next week or a downshift to 25 basis points, traders have settled solidly on the latter, guided both by Fed officials’ comments and by media reports.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Musk's Big Tesla Growth Target Is a Problem
It pays to parse the language of any company’s earnings report, but perhaps more so for Tesla Inc. You could say it’s in the corporate genes.
Popular 401(k) Funds Rebound After Tanking in 2022
Checking your 401(k) account balance is a little less painful these days.
Chicago Fed: Little Change in Economic Growth in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.49 in December from -0.51 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, but two categories improved from November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14 in November.
Selecting the Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
China Reopening an Insignificant Factor for Germany So Far
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 6K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
How to Help Clients with Exit Planning
Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe. It is the only organization that offers the Certified Exit Planning Advisor Program (CEPA) and qualifies for continuing education credits with 12 major professional associations, making it the most widely endorsed professional exit planning program in the world.
Big Banks Told to Phase Out Financing of New Fossil-Fuel Projects
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
Economists Finally Have a Good Excuse for Being Wrong
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
The Case for the Federal Reserve to Pause Right Now
If you believe in the Milton Friedman adage that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, then you should also believe that the Federal Reserve can stop increasing interest rates. Now.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
US PMIs Show the Fed Walking a Fine Line
The US Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) increased in January to 46.6 from 45 in December, representing a slowing economy but slightly less pessimistic than expected and better than the month before.
In Defense of Millennials
Older advisors need to step aside and make room for the up and comers.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
A Charitable Way to Beat Taxes in the Afterlife
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Increase for 4th Consecutive Week
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
From Inflation Reduction To Trade Friction
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Debt-Limit Fight Risks Early End to Fed Quantitative Tightening
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative-tightening program risks being propelled toward an early end as US politicians bicker in Washington over raising the national debt limit, according to some economists and bond-market participants.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
The 2 Trillion Reasons Why Fed Tightening Isn't So Scary
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
Cathie Wood's ARKK Is Well on Way to One of Its Best Months Ever
Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy is on course for one of its best months on record, joining assets across Wall Street that are so far defying gloomy expectations for the year ahead in emphatic style.
Citadel's $16 Billion Win Tops Paulson's Greatest Trade Ever
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Creating a Plan for Long-Term Care
Two major issues clients should consider in creating their own long-term care plan are where they will live and how they will pay for the care they are likely to need.
Hedge Fund Managers Score Tax Break While Keeping Investment Control
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
How to Save for Retirement by Paying Down Your Student Loans
Paying down student debt or saving for retirement can seem like mutually exclusive goals. A little-known workplace benefit could soon allow more workers to do both.
Microsoft Invests $10 Billion in ChatGPT Maker OpenAI
Microsoft Corp. is investing $10 billion in OpenAI, whose artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT has lit up the internet since its introduction in November, amassing more than a million users within days and touching off a fresh debate over the role of AI in the workplace.
The Post-2022 Asset Management Landscape
For the 15 years preceding 2022, asset management was a great business, fueled by near-double-digit AUM growth driven by rising equity and bond markets. But that party ended in 2022, with big losses in the stock market and record losses in the bond market. My guest today is here to discuss what that means for asset managers, advisors, and the consumer who ultimately own mutual funds and ETFs.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Where Rich Americans Give the Most to Charity
To determine the places where affluent Americans give the most to charity, we compared 384 metro areas.
Nvidia to Win Big From ChatGPT Hype, Wall Street Predicts
In the weeks since the ChatGPT artificial intelligence tool took the world by storm, Nvidia Corp. has emerged as Wall Street’s preferred pick for traders seeking to profit from its potential.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Don't Get Disoriented by Recession-Talk Fatigue
Investors, economists and journalists have been talking incessantly about recession for the better part of the past year, and they’re all tired of it.
AI Is Improving Faster Than Most Humans Realize
Artificial intelligence advances in a manner that’s hard for the human mind to grasp.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Fortune Doesn’t Always Favor the Bold: The Perils of Concentrated Stock Positions
Advisors can illustrate the risks in single-stock positions by educating their clients on the historical evidence that demonstrates diversification is the prudent strategy.
How Custodial Competition Will Transform the Advisor Space
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
Four Ways to Get Your Team on Board
Enforcing big, complex change within an organization is an ongoing struggle, and the rate of success is alarmingly low. What is the challenge?