Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
What are the most common scenarios that give rise to private foundations converting to DAFs (or making a thoughtful decision not to convert), while preserving the original donor’s intent and satisfying the administrative concerns of surviving family members?
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
I’m having a hard time training one of our newer advisors on how to be a good listener.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
Here are five steps to ensure your systems are operating on the best and cleanest data set possible.
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Some Uber and Lyft drivers are finding that renting or buying a Tesla, the luxury electric car, is a more profitable option now amid soaring gas prices that have upended the economics of gig work.
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
My CFP peers must be tired of hearing me sing the praises of living in South Dakota. But one of them recently emailed some disturbing news. A recent national survey that ranked financial literacy placed South Dakota in 49th place.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
Social Security applies a substantially higher penalty on people subject to GPO for claiming widow(er) and spousal benefits prior to normal retirement age.
Surge meetings will maintain important ongoing contact with your clients while better managing your time.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
The June Final Report came in at 50.0, down 8.4 (14.4%) from the May Final. Investing.com had forecast 50.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 41.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 41.0 percent below the geometric mean.
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Free consulting is when you provide information and education to prove you know your stuff.
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
What was once a virtuous circle of locked-up tokens yielding interest that would be reinvested ad infinitum is now a vicious one, as margin calls and liquidations take place at algorithmic speed.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The client relationship management (CRM) platform has become the beating heart we can’t live without.
Two forecasting methods predict a 54% stock market loss in 2022. Someday the stock market bubble will burst. But the data says we have not seen the worst of equity market declines.
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
While much of the rest of the world is increasingly entrenched into bear market mode, Chinese equities are looking more and more interesting as China continues zigging while the rest of the world is zagging.
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, Incitec Pivot is a global leader in the materials sector with an unrelenting focus on Zero Harm, the expectation that its operations should never expose staff to harm or cause environmental incidents.
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
I am not implying that brokerage firms that pay their advisors via a “payout” are lying, but there is no shortage of misleading when it comes to payouts.
Smart Beta
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
Common Scenarios for Transitioning a Private Foundation to a Donor Advised Fund
What are the most common scenarios that give rise to private foundations converting to DAFs (or making a thoughtful decision not to convert), while preserving the original donor’s intent and satisfying the administrative concerns of surviving family members?
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
When Advisors are Bad Listeners
I’m having a hard time training one of our newer advisors on how to be a good listener.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Energy Crunch vs. Consumer Freeze: What Are Stocks Signaling?
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
How a New Zealand Superfund “Beat the Market”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Says Analysts Are ‘Deer in Headlights’
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Three Lessons About Cognitive Biases
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
The Blind Spots Endangering Your Data and Firm
Here are five steps to ensure your systems are operating on the best and cleanest data set possible.
Dealing with Student Loans, Rising Interest Rates, and Inflation
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
Bill Gates-Led Fund Backs Startup With Cheaper Way to Move Hydrogen
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Uber, Lyft Drivers Switch to Teslas as High Gas Prices Squeeze Profit
Some Uber and Lyft drivers are finding that renting or buying a Tesla, the luxury electric car, is a more profitable option now amid soaring gas prices that have upended the economics of gig work.
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
My State Flunked Financial Literacy. How About Yours?
My CFP peers must be tired of hearing me sing the praises of living in South Dakota. But one of them recently emailed some disturbing news. A recent national survey that ranked financial literacy placed South Dakota in 49th place.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Posts Longest Inflow Streak in Over a Year
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
An Update on the Social Security Problem with GPO Benefits
Social Security applies a substantially higher penalty on people subject to GPO for claiming widow(er) and spousal benefits prior to normal retirement age.
Why Surge Meetings Work for You and Your Clients
Surge meetings will maintain important ongoing contact with your clients while better managing your time.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
An Ominous Sign for ESG Investors
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
US Durable Goods Orders Exceed Forecast in Broad Advance
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Of War And ESG
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Meta Plunge Lures Value Buyers as Growth Funds Flee
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
The Decline of Fossil Fuels Is Going to Be Expensive
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto Stocks Show Why They’re Among the Riskiest of Risk Assets
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Powell’s Path to 2% Inflation Needs Luck or, Failing That, Pain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Miner Capitulation Means Bitcoin Bottom Is Near
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Sorry Elon Musk. Hyundai Is Quietly Dominating the EV Race
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of New US Homes Jumped in May, Marking First Gain This Year
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Putin’s Mask is Off. Europe is Next
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Lowest Reading on Record
The June Final Report came in at 50.0, down 8.4 (14.4%) from the May Final. Investing.com had forecast 50.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 41.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 41.0 percent below the geometric mean.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Are You Doing Free Consulting?
Free consulting is when you provide information and education to prove you know your stuff.
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
20 Stocks Subscribers Asked To Have Analyzed
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Crypto Is Not Too Big To Fail, Even With Help From FTX
What was once a virtuous circle of locked-up tokens yielding interest that would be reinvested ad infinitum is now a vicious one, as margin calls and liquidations take place at algorithmic speed.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
Tesla Said Readying Its China Factory for Even Greater Volumes
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 2K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.
Cracking and Pivoting
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Heating and Cooling
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The Heart of a Tech Stack: Your CRM Software
The client relationship management (CRM) platform has become the beating heart we can’t live without.
This is Not the Market Bottom
Two forecasting methods predict a 54% stock market loss in 2022. Someday the stock market bubble will burst. But the data says we have not seen the worst of equity market declines.
The Future of Female Financial Empowerment is Today
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
China Cheap Again
While much of the rest of the world is increasingly entrenched into bear market mode, Chinese equities are looking more and more interesting as China continues zigging while the rest of the world is zagging.
Why I Consulted with an Active Fund Manager
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Fall to an Almost Two-Year Low
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Zero Harm Farming and Mining
Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, Incitec Pivot is a global leader in the materials sector with an unrelenting focus on Zero Harm, the expectation that its operations should never expose staff to harm or cause environmental incidents.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Reg BI’s Unhappy Second Birthday
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
Five Touchpoints to Build Family Relationships
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Advisor Payouts
I am not implying that brokerage firms that pay their advisors via a “payout” are lying, but there is no shortage of misleading when it comes to payouts.