Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
As of June 27, the price of Regular and Premium were down 9 and 7 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.27 and South Carolina has the cheapest at $4.32. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 119.57 and is mostly unchanged from last week.
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
The black hole is the empty space where they haven’t committed to move forward, and you’re forced to chase them to find out where they stand.
Advisors seek to be incomparable, or better than the competition. But this marketing tactic creates a neck-and-neck race that they can’t win. Instead of being incomparable, choose to be uncomparable.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.08% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.45% nominal and a decrease from the 0.21% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.5% nominal and -3.61% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number is up 1.8% year-over-year.
Base metals headed for the worst quarterly slump since the 2008 global financial crisis as China’s economy recovered only gradually and fears of a world recession intensified.
Amazon.com Inc. is nearing a deal to broadcast Europe’s top football tournament in the UK for the first time, according to people familiar with the matter, as the tech giant pushes deeper into sports.
Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.
US President Joe Biden said Americans will have to stomach high gas prices “as long as it takes” to beat back Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
Soon-to-be retirees are reevaluating things like when to stop working, whether they should move and how to strategize their spending.
Zoom Video Communications Inc. is navigating life after the pandemic by acting like the past two years never happened.
Skeptics have long made a sport of predicting that the decade-long rally in technology stocks was destined to reverse. At the halfway point of 2022, it seems like this is the year when they will be proven right.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.
In April of this year, the FlexShares team at Northern Trust conducted a survey of more than 500 high-net worth investors who work with financial advisors. The survey asked investors a range of questions about ESG investing including, but not limited to: how much they understand it, why they are or aren’t interested, whether their advisors are recommending it, and how and where they’re learning about ESG investing. My guest today will explain how she and her team used the data to identify trends across different generations, genders, and wealth brackets when it comes to ESG investing.
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
Since healthcare costs are the number one fear in retirement for Americans, this article will focus on which states are the least expensive to retire in based on healthcare costs.
The man who dominates discussion about the future of transportation has gone uncharacteristically quiet at the close of a manic quarter.
A pair of exchange-traded funds that seek to capitalize on the tendency for US stocks to log the bulk of their gains when the cash market is shut are set to launch Tuesday.
Home-price growth in the US started to slow in April.
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud-storage business is on a clear path toward a $3 trillion value...
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
Energy commodity prices (the index in this chart includes crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products) have pulled back from the highs, but it could just be the start of a deeper correction if the price action in industrial metal commodities is anything to go by.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
What are the most common scenarios that give rise to private foundations converting to DAFs (or making a thoughtful decision not to convert), while preserving the original donor’s intent and satisfying the administrative concerns of surviving family members?
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
I’m having a hard time training one of our newer advisors on how to be a good listener.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
Here are five steps to ensure your systems are operating on the best and cleanest data set possible.
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Some Uber and Lyft drivers are finding that renting or buying a Tesla, the luxury electric car, is a more profitable option now amid soaring gas prices that have upended the economics of gig work.
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
My CFP peers must be tired of hearing me sing the praises of living in South Dakota. But one of them recently emailed some disturbing news. A recent national survey that ranked financial literacy placed South Dakota in 49th place.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
Social Security applies a substantially higher penalty on people subject to GPO for claiming widow(er) and spousal benefits prior to normal retirement age.
Surge meetings will maintain important ongoing contact with your clients while better managing your time.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Factor-Based Investing
Moving Averages: S&P Down 8.4% in June
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Inch Down
As of June 27, the price of Regular and Premium were down 9 and 7 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.27 and South Carolina has the cheapest at $4.32. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 119.57 and is mostly unchanged from last week.
Bitcoin Tests $19,000
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
The Fed Is Actually Fixing Inequality, Unfortunately
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
How to Avoid the Black Hole of Chasing Prospects
The black hole is the empty space where they haven’t committed to move forward, and you’re forced to chase them to find out where they stand.
Incomparable or Uncomparable, Which are You?
Advisors seek to be incomparable, or better than the competition. But this marketing tactic creates a neck-and-neck race that they can’t win. Instead of being incomparable, choose to be uncomparable.
Somber Summer
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in May
With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.08% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.45% nominal and a decrease from the 0.21% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.5% nominal and -3.61% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in May
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number is up 1.8% year-over-year.
Metals Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008 on Global Downturn Angst
Base metals headed for the worst quarterly slump since the 2008 global financial crisis as China’s economy recovered only gradually and fears of a world recession intensified.
Amazon to Boost Football Coverage in UK With UEFA Deal
Amazon.com Inc. is nearing a deal to broadcast Europe’s top football tournament in the UK for the first time, according to people familiar with the matter, as the tech giant pushes deeper into sports.
Bitcoin Set for Biggest Quarterly Drop in More Than a Decade
Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.
US Will Face High Gas Prices ‘as Long as It Takes,’ Biden Says
US President Joe Biden said Americans will have to stomach high gas prices “as long as it takes” to beat back Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
China’s World-Beating Stock Rally Is Forecast to Strengthen More
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
Now What? Advice for Retiring Into a Recession
Soon-to-be retirees are reevaluating things like when to stop working, whether they should move and how to strategize their spending.
Zoom Bets on Corporate Customers to Stem Post-Pandemic Crash
Zoom Video Communications Inc. is navigating life after the pandemic by acting like the past two years never happened.
Technology Stocks Head for Historic Wipeout as US Economy Cools
Skeptics have long made a sport of predicting that the decade-long rally in technology stocks was destined to reverse. At the halfway point of 2022, it seems like this is the year when they will be proven right.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Another 2K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.
What HNW Investors are Saying About ESG
In April of this year, the FlexShares team at Northern Trust conducted a survey of more than 500 high-net worth investors who work with financial advisors. The survey asked investors a range of questions about ESG investing including, but not limited to: how much they understand it, why they are or aren’t interested, whether their advisors are recommending it, and how and where they’re learning about ESG investing. My guest today will explain how she and her team used the data to identify trends across different generations, genders, and wealth brackets when it comes to ESG investing.
No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
Seven Least Expensive States Based on Retirement Healthcare Costs
Since healthcare costs are the number one fear in retirement for Americans, this article will focus on which states are the least expensive to retire in based on healthcare costs.
Tesla’s Technoking of Tumult Caps a Wild Quarter With Silence
The man who dominates discussion about the future of transportation has gone uncharacteristically quiet at the close of a manic quarter.
ETFs Offering Way to Bet on Overnight Equity Gains Set to Launch
A pair of exchange-traded funds that seek to capitalize on the tendency for US stocks to log the bulk of their gains when the cash market is shut are set to launch Tuesday.
US Home-Price Growth Decelerates for First Time Since 2021
Home-price growth in the US started to slow in April.
Time to Start Preparing for a Recession Is Now, Rob Arnott Says
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
Amazon Cloud Unit on Course for $3 Trillion Value, Redburn Says
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud-storage business is on a clear path toward a $3 trillion value...
Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
2022 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
Key Takeaways From Our 2021 Advisor Fixed Income Portfolio Review
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
2022 Mid-Year Corporate Credit Outlook
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
The Monetary Surge Continues to Ebb
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
Heavy Metal Omen for Energy Prices
Energy commodity prices (the index in this chart includes crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products) have pulled back from the highs, but it could just be the start of a deeper correction if the price action in industrial metal commodities is anything to go by.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
Common Scenarios for Transitioning a Private Foundation to a Donor Advised Fund
What are the most common scenarios that give rise to private foundations converting to DAFs (or making a thoughtful decision not to convert), while preserving the original donor’s intent and satisfying the administrative concerns of surviving family members?
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
When Advisors are Bad Listeners
I’m having a hard time training one of our newer advisors on how to be a good listener.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Energy Crunch vs. Consumer Freeze: What Are Stocks Signaling?
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
How a New Zealand Superfund “Beat the Market”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Says Analysts Are ‘Deer in Headlights’
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Three Lessons About Cognitive Biases
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
The Blind Spots Endangering Your Data and Firm
Here are five steps to ensure your systems are operating on the best and cleanest data set possible.
Dealing with Student Loans, Rising Interest Rates, and Inflation
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
Bill Gates-Led Fund Backs Startup With Cheaper Way to Move Hydrogen
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Uber, Lyft Drivers Switch to Teslas as High Gas Prices Squeeze Profit
Some Uber and Lyft drivers are finding that renting or buying a Tesla, the luxury electric car, is a more profitable option now amid soaring gas prices that have upended the economics of gig work.
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
World Markets Update: June 27, 2022
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
My State Flunked Financial Literacy. How About Yours?
My CFP peers must be tired of hearing me sing the praises of living in South Dakota. But one of them recently emailed some disturbing news. A recent national survey that ranked financial literacy placed South Dakota in 49th place.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Posts Longest Inflow Streak in Over a Year
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
An Update on the Social Security Problem with GPO Benefits
Social Security applies a substantially higher penalty on people subject to GPO for claiming widow(er) and spousal benefits prior to normal retirement age.
Why Surge Meetings Work for You and Your Clients
Surge meetings will maintain important ongoing contact with your clients while better managing your time.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
An Ominous Sign for ESG Investors
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
US Durable Goods Orders Exceed Forecast in Broad Advance
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Of War And ESG
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Meta Plunge Lures Value Buyers as Growth Funds Flee
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
The Decline of Fossil Fuels Is Going to Be Expensive
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto Stocks Show Why They’re Among the Riskiest of Risk Assets
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Powell’s Path to 2% Inflation Needs Luck or, Failing That, Pain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Miner Capitulation Means Bitcoin Bottom Is Near
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Sorry Elon Musk. Hyundai Is Quietly Dominating the EV Race
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of New US Homes Jumped in May, Marking First Gain This Year
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Putin’s Mask is Off. Europe is Next
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.