I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 339K.
Relative rotation entails shifting among stocks, sectors, and stock factors. The strategy adds significant value to portfolio management if done well.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
Multiple jobholders account for 4.8% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
The once-hot Wall Street trades of 2023 are all falling apart, in a fresh blow to market pros blindsided again and again ever since the pandemic broke out.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The passage of the debt-ceiling deal removes a significant threat to the economy and markets. The focus now shifts back to where it’s been for the past 18 months: inflation, the Fed, and recession risks.
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its May services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.3, which was below the forecast of 51.8. The latest reading marks the fifth consecutive month the index has been expansion territory.
The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year.
As fast as it went up for value managers, it’s coming down. The culprit is the all-consuming craze for artificial intelligence.
A robust implementation strategy and real-world implementation capabilities are both necessary in order to achieve your portfolio’s preferred position.
529 plan benefits abound no matter which type of plan you choose. Read on to get a full understanding of what 529 plans can do for you.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.
In the five months prior to U.S. recessions dating to the 1920s, the equity Momentum factor was the top performer, with an annualized cumulative excess market return of +6.7%, on average.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 46.9 in May. The lates figure marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The May reading was just below the forecast of 47.0.
The May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ dropped for the first time in five months to 48.4. The latest figure moves the index back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month stint in expansion territory. The May reading is slightly below the forecast of 48.5.
Investors have been loading up on T-bills and money market funds this year, but according to our Total Return team, that is not a sustainable strategy as it exposes investors to both reinvestment risk and inflation while creating an asset/liability mismatch.
Is the debt-ceiling agreement struck between the White House and Republican Party leaders likely to be approved by Congress? Our chief investment strategist explains why we believe the answer is yes.
My advice to prepare for the “big” meeting is this…
The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
A digital-marketing audit typically includes an analysis of the following elements.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up month-over-month by 0.1% and was up 0.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.0% MoM and down 0.8% YoY.
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
Like planting seeds, sometimes new investment vehicles take time to take root. David Mann, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global ETF Product and Capital Markets, draws parallels between gardening and developing and growing new ETFs.
With the release of this morning's report on April's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.36% nominal and 2.87% real.
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at -1. This is an increase from last month's figure and better than the expected -5 reading. The future outlook came in at 2, down slightly from April.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index remained at 78.9, representing a 0.0% change from last month, lower than the expected 0.5% increase. Pending home sales are down 20.3% compared to one year ago.
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
Many investors view real estate as an attractive long-term investment opportunity that plays an important role in portfolio diversification. With that in mind, Columbia Threadneedle Investments recently announced the expansion of its exchange-traded fund offerings with the launch of the Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (Ticker: CRED). The fund offers investors and allocators an accessible, research-driven way to gain exposure to the real estate asset class. REITS have a history of low correlations and attractive long-term returns and have a strong historical performance record in high inflation. According to a recent Columbia Threadneedle survey, 93% of financial advisors plan to maintain or increase their real estate allocations over the next 12 to 24 months.
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
Risk-averse investors seeking defensive systematic strategies to reduce left-tail risk should broaden their search beyond low volatility/low beta.
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
Factor investing has seen increased popularity in the US. Investors may also want to consider increasing their opportunity set by considering factors abroad.
This morning's release of the April existing home sales showed that sales continued to fall for a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million units from the previous month's 4.43 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% month-over-month decrease and was well below the forecast of a 0.1% increase in sales. Existing home sales are now down 23.2% compared to one year ago.
The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% interest-rate hike has likely capped one of its most aggressive policy-tightening cycles in 40 years. And the cumulative 5% policy rate increase in just over a year is now starting to have an effect on rate-sensitive sectors and inflation.
Working with a skilled OCIO provider can help you position your portfolio to benefit from investment opportunities and avoid uncompensated risks.
The current economic and investing environment remains one of the most challenging and difficult to navigate in recent times. We have stubborn inflation, economic resilience, geopolitical tensions, tight labour markets, rising interest rates, higher for longer monetary policy, QT, bank failures, overwhelming bearishness and now, issues surrounding the debt ceiling.
Alphabet Inc. is back in the game. The artificial intelligence game, that is.
Profit margins have remained elevated in the U.S. for a decade, and in a new white paper, GMO’s James Montier examines why that has been the case, ultimately finding the culprit in fiscal deficits.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (45) at 50, up 5 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last ten months.
Here are a couple of trends that will dominate as a winning content strategy this year.
What is the number-one reported factor for a happy and fulfilling retirement?
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
New research shows that investors can profit by exploiting “momentum” – the notion that stocks or factors that experienced good performance will continue to do so, and vice versa.
Portfolio manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years. Here he explains how he is navigating the new era of rising interest rates and financial tightening.
So far this year, the ETF industry has witnessed as much sound as fury. While we haven’t seen the record-breaking flows of past years, we have seen plenty of launch and closure activity.
Stock selection in a climate investing strategy takes more than just avoiding companies exposed to global warming risks. The process should intersect with an active search for diverse opportunities among companies helping to fight climate change, but with high-quality business models, too.
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for April is 4.0%, down 0.3% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 3.4%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 4.9% and Core CPI is 5.5%.
With the Fed purposely trying to slow economic growth and a banking crisis in full swing, do the heightened risks argue for accepting the current bond yields and reducing equity exposure?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in at 4.9%, down from 5.0% the previous month (n.s.a) and lower than the forecast of 5.0%. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
Any financial advisor can turn their content into a powerful SEO engine without engaging an expensive consultant.
Here’s why I started the Externship and why it matters.
If the Fed pauses, will that revive risk assets? Tom Nelson and Miles Sampson of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions weigh in on the investment implications of the latest US central bank actions.
Today’s competitive landscape is creating an interesting opportunity for discussions between money managers and their small business owner clients looking to incorporate more technology-centric investments into their portfolios.
Research has shown that investing in IPOs has been a bad deal – you lose money compared to a comparable index fund. But a new paper shows that certain VC-backed IPOs deliver alpha for investors.
Portfolio Manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years and how they have informed his approach to the years ahead.
World economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.
Crowded equity trades and possible policy remediation for US regional banks may bring an end to a trade that’s roiled broader markets but proved lucrative for some short sellers.
Bank stocks have underperformed conservative sectors and the broader S&P 500. Despite the broad risks, there are good banks that can be investment worthy.
Leadership shifts at the sector and style levels warrant some additional caution, as well as a closer look as to what investors are buying when it comes to "growth vs. value."
What would you do with a million-dollar windfall?
Key Takeaways
Fear of missing out, or “FOMO,” seems to be a common trend with investors. Whether it was GameStop, AMC, Bitcoin, or the FAANGs, the last few years has seen some investors exhibit FOMO as they chase the hottest trends in the market.
India’s ability to attract foreign investment has long been hampered by subpar infrastructure and excessive bureaucracy. But reputations can obscure real change.
With the European Market’s earning season fully upon us, let’s look at expectations for the month ahead. According to our proprietary analytics, the European energy and real estate sectors have experienced the highest level of downward revision to sales of all sectors on both a one- and three-month basis.
Higher bond yields and improved total return potential may offer advisors a compelling opportunity to move cash off the sidelines.
We hope you enjoy the latest NewsLetter from Harold Evensky.
The vast “cash hoard of 2023” has the bullish media salivating about what it means for the future of equities. That cash hoard in money market funds now exceeds $5.2 trillion.
Here’s how we can improve financial planning projections to result in better forecasts, advice and guidance to households.
Despite the overwhelming academic evidence demonstrating the superior, long-term performance of index funds, investors may want to invest in actively managed products. New research shows the importance of choosing low-cost funds.
Tax season isn't the only time advisors should think about how taxes may impact their client portfolios. There are various strategies advisors can use year-round to ensure they are investing in a tax-efficient manner. Helping your clients maximize their after-tax wealth is an important element of the value you provide.
My guest today, Harin de Silva, is one of the leaders of the quantitative investing community and the winner of several Graham Dodd Awards for institutional research. He is a member of the Q Group and a pioneer in factor investing.
Four reasons, the rule of law, liquid financial markets, and economic and military might, all but guarantee the death of the dollar will not occur anytime soon.
Here’s four digital tools to differentiate yourself from the competition and level up your marketing efforts.
It’s believed that to meet this goal, two out of every three passenger vehicles manufactured in the U.S. would need to be electric models.
2023 has already been an eventful year, featuring a banking crisis and more Fed rate hikes. In our view, this is not a “set it and forget it” type of market – investors need to stay vigilant.
After the market selloff in 2022—a period that was particularly hard on growth stocks—we think our companies are attractively priced for the next five years, which is our baseline investment horizon.
PE will remain a factor in the RIA space for years to come, but it’s not for everyone.
Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? Making a case for low-volatility, high-dividend equities with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions’ Vaneet Chadha and Michael LaBella.
The lack of diversification benefits of government bonds in 2022 was painful for multi-asset investors. The sell-off in US Treasuries in particular was sharp, and we saw correlations versus stocks move well into positive territory.
The stakes are high, and it appears likely that our deeply divided government is headed for another debt-ceiling showdown. Divided governments have typically been good for the markets; however, they often spell trouble when it comes to negotiating fiscal matters.
With higher bond yields, it is instructive to understand what drives interest rates in cash sweeps.
Factor-Based Investing
U.S. Workforce Analysis: May 2023 Update
I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 339K.
Relative Rotation – Unlocking the Hidden Potential (Part 1)
Relative rotation entails shifting among stocks, sectors, and stock factors. The strategy adds significant value to portfolio management if done well.
Big U.S. Banks Had A Good Quarter. We Still Have No Plans to Invest in Them.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Mid-Year Market Outlook
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
Multiple Jobholders are 4.8% of All Employed
Multiple jobholders account for 4.8% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Wall Street’s Once-Hot Trades of 2023 Are Unraveling in Markets
The once-hot Wall Street trades of 2023 are all falling apart, in a fresh blow to market pros blindsided again and again ever since the pandemic broke out.
Important Individual Bond Product Points
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Debt-Ceiling Showdown 2023 Is in the Rearview Mirror
The passage of the debt-ceiling deal removes a significant threat to the economy and markets. The focus now shifts back to where it’s been for the past 18 months: inflation, the Fed, and recession risks.
Preparing for Volatility: The Debt Ceiling and The End of US Exceptionalism
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
World Markets Watchlist: June 5, 2023
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.
ISM Services Expand for Fifth Consecutive Month in May
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its May services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.3, which was below the forecast of 51.8. The latest reading marks the fifth consecutive month the index has been expansion territory.
S&P Global Services PMI: Strongest Expansion in Over a Year
The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year.
How the Value Trade Has Been Smoked by the AI Frenzy
As fast as it went up for value managers, it’s coming down. The culprit is the all-consuming craze for artificial intelligence.
Know How To Get There: Three Implementation Capabilities You Should Demand From Your OCIO Provider
A robust implementation strategy and real-world implementation capabilities are both necessary in order to achieve your portfolio’s preferred position.
A Primer on 529 Plan Benefits
529 plan benefits abound no matter which type of plan you choose. Read on to get a full understanding of what 529 plans can do for you.
P/E10 Unchanged in May
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.
Factor Investing and U.S. Recessions: How Have Key Equity Factors Performed on a Historical Basis?
In the five months prior to U.S. recessions dating to the 1920s, the equity Momentum factor was the top performer, with an annualized cumulative excess market return of +6.7%, on average.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for Seventh Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 46.9 in May. The lates figure marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The May reading was just below the forecast of 47.0.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Decline in May
The May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ dropped for the first time in five months to 48.4. The latest figure moves the index back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month stint in expansion territory. The May reading is slightly below the forecast of 48.5.
The Risk of Playing It Safe
Investors have been loading up on T-bills and money market funds this year, but according to our Total Return team, that is not a sustainable strategy as it exposes investors to both reinvestment risk and inflation while creating an asset/liability mismatch.
Debt-Ceiling Deal Reached, Vote To Come
Is the debt-ceiling agreement struck between the White House and Republican Party leaders likely to be approved by Congress? Our chief investment strategist explains why we believe the answer is yes.
Land the Big Whale
My advice to prepare for the “big” meeting is this…
Total Concentration: Mega Caps Reign
The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.
Size, Value and Factor Exposures Improve Retirement Outcomes
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
How a Marketing Audit Works
A digital-marketing audit typically includes an analysis of the following elements.
America's Driving Habits as of March 2023
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up month-over-month by 0.1% and was up 0.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.0% MoM and down 0.8% YoY.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Rebound Continued in March
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
Making Cent$ Of the Dollar: Understanding the Challenges to Its Global Reserve Currency Status
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
Beyond the Garden Variety of ETFS
Like planting seeds, sometimes new investment vehicles take time to take root. David Mann, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global ETF Product and Capital Markets, draws parallels between gardening and developing and growing new ETFs.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Flat in April
With the release of this morning's report on April's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.36% nominal and 2.87% real.
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Remained Steady in May
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at -1. This is an increase from last month's figure and better than the expected -5 reading. The future outlook came in at 2, down slightly from April.
Pending Home Sales Unchanged in April
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index remained at 78.9, representing a 0.0% change from last month, lower than the expected 0.5% increase. Pending home sales are down 20.3% compared to one year ago.
The Fed Was Dead Wrong
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
A New, Low-Cost REIT ETF
Many investors view real estate as an attractive long-term investment opportunity that plays an important role in portfolio diversification. With that in mind, Columbia Threadneedle Investments recently announced the expansion of its exchange-traded fund offerings with the launch of the Columbia Research Enhanced Real Estate ETF (Ticker: CRED). The fund offers investors and allocators an accessible, research-driven way to gain exposure to the real estate asset class. REITS have a history of low correlations and attractive long-term returns and have a strong historical performance record in high inflation. According to a recent Columbia Threadneedle survey, 93% of financial advisors plan to maintain or increase their real estate allocations over the next 12 to 24 months.
Economic Imbalances Could Mean Deep Recession or Sticky Inflation
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
How to Build Defensive Equity Portfolios
Risk-averse investors seeking defensive systematic strategies to reduce left-tail risk should broaden their search beyond low volatility/low beta.
Bitcoin’s Rise To Prominence On Full Display At This Year’s Miami Conference
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
International Style
Factor investing has seen increased popularity in the US. Investors may also want to consider increasing their opportunity set by considering factors abroad.
Existing Home Sales Fall Again in April
This morning's release of the April existing home sales showed that sales continued to fall for a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million units from the previous month's 4.43 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% month-over-month decrease and was well below the forecast of a 0.1% increase in sales. Existing home sales are now down 23.2% compared to one year ago.
Connecting the Disinflation Dots in Multi-Asset Strategies
The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% interest-rate hike has likely capped one of its most aggressive policy-tightening cycles in 40 years. And the cumulative 5% policy rate increase in just over a year is now starting to have an effect on rate-sensitive sectors and inflation.
Know Where You Want to Be: How a Skilled OCIO Provider Can Help Investors Navigate Opportunities and Threats
Working with a skilled OCIO provider can help you position your portfolio to benefit from investment opportunities and avoid uncompensated risks.
Your Complete Guide Through The Current Macro Landscape
The current economic and investing environment remains one of the most challenging and difficult to navigate in recent times. We have stubborn inflation, economic resilience, geopolitical tensions, tight labour markets, rising interest rates, higher for longer monetary policy, QT, bank failures, overwhelming bearishness and now, issues surrounding the debt ceiling.
Alphabet Adds $115 Billion in Value After Defying AI Doubters
Alphabet Inc. is back in the game. The artificial intelligence game, that is.
The Curious Incident of the Elevated Profit Margins
Profit margins have remained elevated in the U.S. for a decade, and in a new white paper, GMO’s James Montier examines why that has been the case, ultimately finding the culprit in fiscal deficits.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Lack of Existing Inventory Boosts Builder Confidence
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (45) at 50, up 5 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last ten months.
How to Give Clients the Content They Want
Here are a couple of trends that will dominate as a winning content strategy this year.
Women's Health Month: How Finances Affect Wellness
What is the number-one reported factor for a happy and fulfilling retirement?
Economic Moats | Active Investors Seek Wider Moats
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
Momentum Versus Factor Momentum: Which Dominates?
New research shows that investors can profit by exploiting “momentum” – the notion that stocks or factors that experienced good performance will continue to do so, and vice versa.
Three Extraordinary Years in Emerging Markets. Part 3
Portfolio manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years. Here he explains how he is navigating the new era of rising interest rates and financial tightening.
VettaFi Viewpoints: Nadig & Rosenbluth Discuss 2023’s Biggest ETF Investing Trends (So Far)
So far this year, the ETF industry has witnessed as much sound as fury. While we haven’t seen the record-breaking flows of past years, we have seen plenty of launch and closure activity.
Homing in on Quality in Climate Investing Strategies
Stock selection in a climate investing strategy takes more than just avoiding companies exposed to global warming risks. The process should intersect with an active search for diverse opportunities among companies helping to fight climate change, but with high-quality business models, too.
Underlying Inflation Gauge: Full Set Down 0.3%, Prices Only Down 0.2% in April
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for April is 4.0%, down 0.3% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 3.4%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 4.9% and Core CPI is 5.5%.
How to Visualize Risk and Return
With the Fed purposely trying to slow economic growth and a banking crisis in full swing, do the heightened risks argue for accepting the current bond yields and reducing equity exposure?
Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 4.9%, Down from March
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in at 4.9%, down from 5.0% the previous month (n.s.a) and lower than the forecast of 5.0%. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).
How AI Will Improve Your SEO – Without a Consultant!
Any financial advisor can turn their content into a powerful SEO engine without engaging an expensive consultant.
The Future of the Externship Program
Here’s why I started the Externship and why it matters.
Fed Pause Won’t Save the Day
If the Fed pauses, will that revive risk assets? Tom Nelson and Miles Sampson of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions weigh in on the investment implications of the latest US central bank actions.
Automation Isn’t Just for the Fortune 500
Today’s competitive landscape is creating an interesting opportunity for discussions between money managers and their small business owner clients looking to incorporate more technology-centric investments into their portfolios.
Some IPOs Actually Work for Investors
Research has shown that investing in IPOs has been a bad deal – you lose money compared to a comparable index fund. But a new paper shows that certain VC-backed IPOs deliver alpha for investors.
Three Extraordinary Years in Emerging Markets. Part 2
Portfolio Manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years and how they have informed his approach to the years ahead.
A Rosie Forecast, and More
World economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.
Short Sellers Flocking to US Banks Are Risking a Painful Squeeze
Crowded equity trades and possible policy remediation for US regional banks may bring an end to a trade that’s roiled broader markets but proved lucrative for some short sellers.
Are Bank Stocks Too Risky?
Bank stocks have underperformed conservative sectors and the broader S&P 500. Despite the broad risks, there are good banks that can be investment worthy.
Mysterious Ways: Growth vs. Value Debate
Leadership shifts at the sector and style levels warrant some additional caution, as well as a closer look as to what investors are buying when it comes to "growth vs. value."
How Americans Spend Their Lottery Winnings
What would you do with a million-dollar windfall?
Analyzing Who Has the Greatest Potential to Move Markets
Key Takeaways
Three Extraordinary Years in Emerging Markets. Part 1
Portfolio Manager John Paul Lech explores the defining changes of the last three years and how they have informed his approach to the years ahead.
Quality Control
Fear of missing out, or “FOMO,” seems to be a common trend with investors. Whether it was GameStop, AMC, Bitcoin, or the FAANGs, the last few years has seen some investors exhibit FOMO as they chase the hottest trends in the market.
India’s New Look: Paving Roads to Efficiency and Investment
India’s ability to attract foreign investment has long been hampered by subpar infrastructure and excessive bureaucracy. But reputations can obscure real change.
European-Related Earnings Revisions
With the European Market’s earning season fully upon us, let’s look at expectations for the month ahead. According to our proprietary analytics, the European energy and real estate sectors have experienced the highest level of downward revision to sales of all sectors on both a one- and three-month basis.
Preparing for the Pivot: Key Takeaways From Our 2022 Advisor Fixed Income Portfolio Review
Higher bond yields and improved total return potential may offer advisors a compelling opportunity to move cash off the sidelines.
NewsLetter - April 2023
We hope you enjoy the latest NewsLetter from Harold Evensky.
The Cash Hoard Of 2023 (And The Sideline Money Myth)
The vast “cash hoard of 2023” has the bullish media salivating about what it means for the future of equities. That cash hoard in money market funds now exceeds $5.2 trillion.
The Problems with Monte Carlo are in Your Mind
Here’s how we can improve financial planning projections to result in better forecasts, advice and guidance to households.
Expenses Matter When Selecting Active Funds
Despite the overwhelming academic evidence demonstrating the superior, long-term performance of index funds, investors may want to invest in actively managed products. New research shows the importance of choosing low-cost funds.
Top 5 Tips For Managing Taxable Portfolios
Tax season isn't the only time advisors should think about how taxes may impact their client portfolios. There are various strategies advisors can use year-round to ensure they are investing in a tax-efficient manner. Helping your clients maximize their after-tax wealth is an important element of the value you provide.
Minimize Risk and Participate in the Market Upside
My guest today, Harin de Silva, is one of the leaders of the quantitative investing community and the winner of several Graham Dodd Awards for institutional research. He is a member of the Q Group and a pioneer in factor investing.
Four Reasons Why the Dollar Will Remain the Reserve Currency – Part II
Four reasons, the rule of law, liquid financial markets, and economic and military might, all but guarantee the death of the dollar will not occur anytime soon.
(Mostly) Free Tools to Supercharge Your Website
Here’s four digital tools to differentiate yourself from the competition and level up your marketing efforts.
The Transition To Electric Vehicles And Renewables Will Test Global Commodity Supply
It’s believed that to meet this goal, two out of every three passenger vehicles manufactured in the U.S. would need to be electric models.
Strategic Income Outlook: And We Thought 2022 Was a Crazy Year
2023 has already been an eventful year, featuring a banking crisis and more Fed rate hikes. In our view, this is not a “set it and forget it” type of market – investors need to stay vigilant.
Although Stocks Were Volatile During the First Quarter, High Quality Has Come Back Into Favor
After the market selloff in 2022—a period that was particularly hard on growth stocks—we think our companies are attractively priced for the next five years, which is our baseline investment horizon.
The Permanent Role of Private Equity in the RIA Profession
PE will remain a factor in the RIA space for years to come, but it’s not for everyone.
The Case for Low-Volatility, High-Dividend Equities
Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? Making a case for low-volatility, high-dividend equities with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions’ Vaneet Chadha and Michael LaBella.
The Picture Brightens for Government Bonds as Multi-Asset Diversifiers
The lack of diversification benefits of government bonds in 2022 was painful for multi-asset investors. The sell-off in US Treasuries in particular was sharp, and we saw correlations versus stocks move well into positive territory.
U.S. Government Readies for Latest Debt Ceiling Showdown
The stakes are high, and it appears likely that our deeply divided government is headed for another debt-ceiling showdown. Divided governments have typically been good for the markets; however, they often spell trouble when it comes to negotiating fiscal matters.
Ask Brad: How Custodians Set Interest Rates on Swept Cash
With higher bond yields, it is instructive to understand what drives interest rates in cash sweeps.