Tyler will answer audience questions about what the future holds for global economies.
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
Vitaliy Katsenelson will share his outlook for the economy and his approach to active stock management.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Another Federal Reserve official has lined up with those who favor following last week’s 75 basis-point interest-rate increase with the same again next month to curb rampant inflation.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points again in July and following that with a few more half-point hikes.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Two forecasting methods predict a 54% stock market loss in 2022. Someday the stock market bubble will burst. But the data says we have not seen the worst of equity market declines.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement of a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike on June 15 revealed a shift in the Fed’s thinking.
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
An ETF issuer is following in Cathie Wood’s footsteps with a new innovation-themed fund, despite the fact that her flagship ETF tumbled 61% this year.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
US dollar cycles last an average of six to nine years, and we are approaching the tenth year of this dollar bull market.
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to teach traditional financiers a thing or two about how to avoid collapses and crises. Yet it feels like we’re simply repeating history. Specifically, the messy hedge-fund humiliation captured in “When Genius Failed.”
Inflation
The Drivers of Economy Growth – Tyler Cowen
Tyler will answer audience questions about what the future holds for global economies.
Tackling restrictive Fed policy, inflation and a recessionary sentiment with Defined Outcome ETFs
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
The Outlook for the Economy and Active Management – Vitaliy Katsenelson
Vitaliy Katsenelson will share his outlook for the economy and his approach to active stock management.
Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.1%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Energy Crunch vs. Consumer Freeze: What Are Stocks Signaling?
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Portfolio Perspectives – Recession or Not, That’s the Question
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Says Analysts Are ‘Deer in Headlights’
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Dealing with Student Loans, Rising Interest Rates, and Inflation
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
ECB in the News
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
We're Not Already in a Recession
Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Posts Longest Inflow Streak in Over a Year
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
US Durable Goods Orders Exceed Forecast in Broad Advance
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto Stocks Show Why They’re Among the Riskiest of Risk Assets
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Powell’s Path to 2% Inflation Needs Luck or, Failing That, Pain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Fed Dove Daly Joins Officials Open to 75 Basis-Point July Hike
Another Federal Reserve official has lined up with those who favor following last week’s 75 basis-point interest-rate increase with the same again next month to curb rampant inflation.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Sales of New US Homes Jumped in May, Marking First Gain This Year
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
Putin’s Mask is Off. Europe is Next
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
New Home Sales Up 10.7% in May
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Fed’s Bowman Backs Raising Rates 75 Basis Points in July
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points again in July and following that with a few more half-point hikes.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Heating and Cooling
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
This is Not the Market Bottom
Two forecasting methods predict a 54% stock market loss in 2022. Someday the stock market bubble will burst. But the data says we have not seen the worst of equity market declines.
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Fall to an Almost Two-Year Low
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
Big Banks Led by JPMorgan Set to Return $80 Billion to Investors
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Fed Capitulates
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
Playing Catch-Up: Takeaways from the June FOMC Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement of a 75-basis-point (bp) rate hike on June 15 revealed a shift in the Fed’s thinking.
Credit Cards at 20%, Mortgages Near 6%: The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Already Having an Impact
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
Builders Are Slashing Prices to Sell Homes in Fast-Cooling US Markets
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Inflation Turns EVs Into Luxury Items, Threatening Broader Electric Shift
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
Private Equity’s Crisis First-Timers See Their Playbook Shredded
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Traders Weigh Monetary Tightening
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Inflation in Japan Should Be Cheered, Not Feared
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Has Tumbled 61%, Yet Gets Another Copycat
An ETF issuer is following in Cathie Wood’s footsteps with a new innovation-themed fund, despite the fact that her flagship ETF tumbled 61% this year.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
The US Is Depleting Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Faster Than It Looks
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Chart of the Week: Is the US Dollar Poised to Enter a Bear Market?
US dollar cycles last an average of six to nine years, and we are approaching the tenth year of this dollar bull market.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Zillow Home Value Index: May Update
May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.
When Crypto’s Own Hedge Fund Geniuses Failed
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to teach traditional financiers a thing or two about how to avoid collapses and crises. Yet it feels like we’re simply repeating history. Specifically, the messy hedge-fund humiliation captured in “When Genius Failed.”