The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
When planning for future financial needs, take the time to understand the key differences between a 529 plan vs. IUL insurance. Both are valuable tools, but they serve different purposes and offer unique benefits.
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 16, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 22.61%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.42% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 7.45%.
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
A 529 plan can play a strategic role in estate planning, especially for families looking to reduce taxes while saving for education. Contributions to a 529 plan may be excluded from your taxable estate, potentially lowering future estate tax liability.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
Here are some important insights and good open-ended questions to ask your clients to make sure they are thinking through life decisions.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
Clients aren’t asking their financial advisor to be everything. They’re asking for clarity and confidence in what matters most to them. Simplifying the client experience may be the most strategic move advisors can make.
In this article, I focus on five essential age-based milestones and life events that collectively present more than 40 million advice opportunities, enabling financial advisors to showcase their care and expertise beyond traditional investment strategies.
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.
Without proper financial guidance and planning, the end of their career could be followed by serious financial difficulties. While every athlete’s legal, tax, and financial picture is different, here are some of the topics that should be reviewed with athletes.
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell to $296.29B in April. This represents a 6.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 7.6% monthly decline.
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.
A KEY PLANK of the new administration’s economic policy has been to embrace tariffs, a sharp reversal of decades of free market trade.
529 plans and Roth IRAs are two tax-advantaged accounts designed to help you save for future expenses.
Selling your real estate portfolio, especially investment properties you and your family have held for years or decades, can be a complex process.
Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.
Your financial requirements are multifaceted, necessitating strategies tailored to your specific needs. Tailored lending can be a valuable addition to a high-net-worth individual’s financial plan, helping you optimize cash flow, maximize tax efficiency and realize important estate planning goals.
Direct indexing has been in the news a lot more in recent years. Larger industry players have strategically acquired a number of providers—including Parametric. And many new entrants have entered the space, looking to build on its success.
529 plans provide tax benefits, estate planning advantages, and flexible education savings. Our Bill Cass explains how 529 plans can be part of an estate planning strategy.
To help exemplify the importance of UX, I’m breaking down a few of the most common UX myths, along with the top recommendations to avoid the pitfalls associated with them.
Household debt increased by 167 billion (0.93%) in Q1 2025, reaching $18.20 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases to student loan and mortgage balances.
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
This article focuses on asset-based fees that cover both advice and investment-related costs, which is a model that I believe is best-suited for most individuals, as advisors can add value across multiple dimensions.
Social Security does face challenges. The trust fund reserves, built up during years when payroll taxes exceeded payouts, are projected to run dry around 2033. If Congress does nothing, benefits will need to be cut by about 20%. That’s serious, but it’s a solvency issue, not a scam.
Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
Many retirees hold substantial assets in traditional IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts. When planning for retirement income and considering your legacy, Roth IRA conversions can be a strategic way to reduce your tax burden and maximize the wealth you pass on to your heirs.
A tax-advantaged account offers certain tax benefits to encourage individuals to save or invest for specific purposes, such as retirement, education or healthcare. These accounts can help you lower your taxable income, defer taxes or avoid taxes altogether if used for qualified expenses.
The "Connelly case "is more than just a legal precedent; it is a call to action for business owners to reevaluate their succession plans and take the necessary steps to protect their interests.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Social Security is at the center of the fiscal emergency that threatens the US. Yet Washington is always reluctant to grapple with it honestly, partly because the issue is misunderstood.
With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.
This article provides information on the history and more recent developments of trust law and the corporate trustee industry. This information will help advisors to make informed decisions on clients’ generational planning choices, and to attract and retain assets.
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.
Social Security faces funding issues by 2035, but major changes to the program are unlikely in the near term.
Two of the most common estate planning tools to use are a Will and a Revocable Trust. Both essentially perform the same purpose, ensuring your wishes are fulfilled, but they do so in different ways. Understanding their differences can save your family from unnecessary probate, costs, and stress.
As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.
Most of us associate 529 accounts with college savings. They’re flexible, allowing you to transfer assets to anyone, including yourself, for the express purpose of furthering the education of your beneficiary. But did you know that a 529 can be a powerful estate planning tool?
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
Overall, it is a system deeply rooted in familial interdependence. The responsibility for widows rests squarely with family members, reflecting a culture where support networks are built on kinship rather than institutional safety nets.
Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., outlines the investment themes and return expectations from our new 10-year outlook.
Consider estate planning strategies to minimize the impact of taxes on your estate. Our Bill Cass highlights several key actions including document reviews, naming beneficiaries and the use of 529 college savings plans to enhance tax efficiency.
Our research shows how artificial intelligence can potentially enhance performance of equity investing.
The professional development journey for financial professionals is best approached through a structured three-step process involving foundational designations, advanced level specializations, and niche market concentrations.
Estate Planning
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 20, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
529 Plans vs. Indexed Universal Life (IUL) Insurance
When planning for future financial needs, take the time to understand the key differences between a 529 plan vs. IUL insurance. Both are valuable tools, but they serve different purposes and offer unique benefits.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level in Over Four Years
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Housing Starts Fall to 5-Year Low in May
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
Gas Prices Rise for First Time in Four Weeks
Gas prices rose for the first time in four weeks. As of June 16th, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 3 cents from the previous week.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
World Markets Watchlist: June 16, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 16, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 22.61%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.42% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 7.45%.
Buy, Borrow, Die: Why This Popular Tax Strategy for the Rich Doesn’t Work
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
How 529 Plans Are Treated for Estate Planning and Taxes
A 529 plan can play a strategic role in estate planning, especially for families looking to reduce taxes while saving for education. Contributions to a 529 plan may be excluded from your taxable estate, potentially lowering future estate tax liability.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades: May 2025
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in May 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
Trade Deficit Shrinks to Smallest Level Since September 2023
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
From Tariff Angst to Optimism
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
Vehicle Sales: May 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
Questions to Ask Clients About Key Milestones
Here are some important insights and good open-ended questions to ask your clients to make sure they are thinking through life decisions.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: May 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in May
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Picked Up in May
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
Two Measures of Inflation: April 2025
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: May 2025
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Sinks to 4-Month Low
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.3% in April
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.7% in April
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in April, Lowest Level Since 2021
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
GDP Per Capita: Q1 2025 Second Estimate
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2025 GDP Second Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
Pending Home Sales Sink 6.3% in April
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
Beyond Service Expansion: Why Better Client Communication Drives Growth
Clients aren’t asking their financial advisor to be everything. They’re asking for clarity and confidence in what matters most to them. Simplifying the client experience may be the most strategic move advisors can make.
40 Million Opportunities to Lead With Advice
In this article, I focus on five essential age-based milestones and life events that collectively present more than 40 million advice opportunities, enabling financial advisors to showcase their care and expertise beyond traditional investment strategies.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Slowed in May
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
Consumer Confidence Sees Largest Monthly Increase in Over Four Years
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Conditions Continued to Worsen in May
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.
Wealth Planning in a League of Its Own: Guidance for Professional Athletes
Without proper financial guidance and planning, the end of their career could be followed by serious financial difficulties. While every athlete’s legal, tax, and financial picture is different, here are some of the topics that should be reviewed with athletes.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.4% Annual Gain in March
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in March
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
Durable Goods Orders: April 2025
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell to $296.29B in April. This represents a 6.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 7.6% monthly decline.
Existing Home Sales Inch Down 0.5% in April
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
New Home Sales Jump to Three-Year High in April
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Contracted Slightly in May
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.
Trade Tariffs: What History Teaches Us to Mitigate Their Impact
A KEY PLANK of the new administration’s economic policy has been to embrace tariffs, a sharp reversal of decades of free market trade.
529 Plan vs. Roth IRA
529 plans and Roth IRAs are two tax-advantaged accounts designed to help you save for future expenses.
What Comes After the Sale? Turning Real Estate Liquidity Into a Long-Term Wealth Strategy
Selling your real estate portfolio, especially investment properties you and your family have held for years or decades, can be a complex process.
Tariff U-Turn; Lingering Doubts
Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.
Tailored Lending: A Strategic Tool for Sophisticated Individuals
Your financial requirements are multifaceted, necessitating strategies tailored to your specific needs. Tailored lending can be a valuable addition to a high-net-worth individual’s financial plan, helping you optimize cash flow, maximize tax efficiency and realize important estate planning goals.
What is Direct Indexing?
Direct indexing has been in the news a lot more in recent years. Larger industry players have strategically acquired a number of providers—including Parametric. And many new entrants have entered the space, looking to build on its success.
A 529 Plan Can be an Effective Component of an Estate Plan
529 plans provide tax benefits, estate planning advantages, and flexible education savings. Our Bill Cass explains how 529 plans can be part of an estate planning strategy.
4 Common Myths of Website User Experience
To help exemplify the importance of UX, I’m breaking down a few of the most common UX myths, along with the top recommendations to avoid the pitfalls associated with them.
Household Debt Rises to $18.20 Trillion in Q1
Household debt increased by 167 billion (0.93%) in Q1 2025, reaching $18.20 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases to student loan and mortgage balances.
Increased Risks to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
The Hidden Cost in Investing: Negative Compounding & the Opportunity Cost of Fees
This article focuses on asset-based fees that cover both advice and investment-related costs, which is a model that I believe is best-suited for most individuals, as advisors can add value across multiple dimensions.
No, Social Security Is Not a Ponzi Scheme
Social Security does face challenges. The trust fund reserves, built up during years when payroll taxes exceeded payouts, are projected to run dry around 2033. If Congress does nothing, benefits will need to be cut by about 20%. That’s serious, but it’s a solvency issue, not a scam.
Bracing for Impact
Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.
Home Ownership Rate Falls to Five-Year Low
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
Roth IRA Conversions in Retirement: How to Successfully Minimize Taxes & Maximize Wealth
Many retirees hold substantial assets in traditional IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts. When planning for retirement income and considering your legacy, Roth IRA conversions can be a strategic way to reduce your tax burden and maximize the wealth you pass on to your heirs.
Tax-Advantaged Accounts: A Powerful Addition to Your Financial Plan
A tax-advantaged account offers certain tax benefits to encourage individuals to save or invest for specific purposes, such as retirement, education or healthcare. These accounts can help you lower your taxable income, defer taxes or avoid taxes altogether if used for qualified expenses.
The Connelly Case Is a Wake-Up Call for Business Owners
The "Connelly case "is more than just a legal precedent; it is a call to action for business owners to reevaluate their succession plans and take the necessary steps to protect their interests.
Where Did I Put My Investments?
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Repairing Social Security’s Finances Can’t Wait
Social Security is at the center of the fiscal emergency that threatens the US. Yet Washington is always reluctant to grapple with it honestly, partly because the issue is misunderstood.
Tariff Shock: Managing a Portfolio Through the Turmoil
With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.
An Advisor Road Map to the Corporate Trustee Industry
This article provides information on the history and more recent developments of trust law and the corporate trustee industry. This information will help advisors to make informed decisions on clients’ generational planning choices, and to attract and retain assets.
Recalibrating for Higher Risk Without Overcorrecting
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
The Price of Protectionism - Tariffs Toll On Growth
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
Navigating Tariff Complexities
We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.
Will Social Security Change As Spending Cuts Are Considered?
Social Security faces funding issues by 2035, but major changes to the program are unlikely in the near term.
Will vs. Revocable Trust: What You Need to Know (And Why You Shouldn’t Wait)
Two of the most common estate planning tools to use are a Will and a Revocable Trust. Both essentially perform the same purpose, ensuring your wishes are fulfilled, but they do so in different ways. Understanding their differences can save your family from unnecessary probate, costs, and stress.
Tariff Tantrum
As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.
529s Are More Than a College Savings Tool
Most of us associate 529 accounts with college savings. They’re flexible, allowing you to transfer assets to anyone, including yourself, for the express purpose of furthering the education of your beneficiary. But did you know that a 529 can be a powerful estate planning tool?
Real Talk With Rias: Considering Moving Upmarket? Here Are Some Issues to Consider
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Two Policy Risks in the Spotlight
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
Can One-Eighth of an Inheritance Be Enough? A Lesson from Jordan
Overall, it is a system deeply rooted in familial interdependence. The responsibility for widows rests squarely with family members, reflecting a culture where support networks are built on kinship rather than institutional safety nets.
Capital Market Assumptions: 10-Year Outlook
Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., outlines the investment themes and return expectations from our new 10-year outlook.
Five Estate Planning Ideas for 2025
Consider estate planning strategies to minimize the impact of taxes on your estate. Our Bill Cass highlights several key actions including document reviews, naming beneficiaries and the use of 529 college savings plans to enhance tax efficiency.
Exploiting the Benefits of Artificial Intelligence for Factor Investors
Our research shows how artificial intelligence can potentially enhance performance of equity investing.
The Benefits of Designations for Financial Professionals: A Three Step Approach
The professional development journey for financial professionals is best approached through a structured three-step process involving foundational designations, advanced level specializations, and niche market concentrations.