Please join VettaFi and Nasdaq for a free one-hour, Asset Allocation Summit. Register today for this free summit and learn how to take advantage of all that asset allocation has to offer.
’ll first summarize their projections and note what I think are some shockers. Then I’ll take a look at how accurate their past forecasts have been. Finally, I’ll conclude with what I’m changing in my own portfolio...
It is not just tariffs that might affect inflation and growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the ambitious Trump policy agenda.
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%.
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
We are observing a significant shift in global supply chains away from China, presenting a substantial investment opportunity. What are the reasons behind this shift?
Recent developments may just offer advisors and investors fresh pathways with which to attain higher yield in 2025.
Could the U.S. dollar lose its place as the world's reserve currency? Despite a long-term trend toward currency diversification, we don't see the dollar losing dominance anytime soon.
Let’s explore how to strike the right balance to keep your client meetings engaging, relevant, and impactful.
President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, seeking to raise pressure on the Federal Reserve as he moves to implement a second-term economic agenda high on tariffs and expanding tax breaks.
Nvidia Corp. investors have typically rushed to buy the stock on any dips. But the mood since the DeepSeek-driven rout has been different, signaling that fears of a slowdown in AI spending aren’t going away.
The employment report was uniformly strong except for one component: the average hours worked per week fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, which may be weather related.
We explore why extreme market concentration is unsustainable, how competition and innovation drive broader market performance, and why diversification is key as volatility rises. Don’t let market extremes catch you off guard.
Is an M&A boom brewing?
Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
As these two strategies evolve, financial advisors must understand their nuances to align client portfolios with current market conditions and future financial goals.
Bloomberg’s bonus calculator offers a revealing look at the divergent value of Wall Street employee payouts.
Exploring the delicate balance between protectionism and global cooperation
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
We provide an update on the 4Q24 earnings season and explain why our positive outlook on tech- related companies remains unchanged.
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
In the case of bond ETFs, it was a strong year in 2024, and key areas could be touch points for investment opportunities.
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
US Treasuries were lower as traders parsed tweaks to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement regarding progress on the fight against inflation.
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.
Asset Allocation
Asset Allocation Summit
Please join VettaFi and Nasdaq for a free one-hour, Asset Allocation Summit. Register today for this free summit and learn how to take advantage of all that asset allocation has to offer.
Examining Vanguard’s Forecasted Returns for the Decade Ahead
’ll first summarize their projections and note what I think are some shockers. Then I’ll take a look at how accurate their past forecasts have been. Finally, I’ll conclude with what I’m changing in my own portfolio...
Watching the Fed Watching Tariffs and Inflation
It is not just tariffs that might affect inflation and growth but also trade uncertainty and the effects of the ambitious Trump policy agenda.
January Jobs Report: A Solid Labor Market, But Signs of Moderation
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%.
Why It May Be Time to Lean Into Securitized Assets
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
Beyond China
We are observing a significant shift in global supply chains away from China, presenting a substantial investment opportunity. What are the reasons behind this shift?
Money Market ETFs: New Ways to Reach for Yield in 2025
Recent developments may just offer advisors and investors fresh pathways with which to attain higher yield in 2025.
Will the United States Dollar Be Dethroned?
Could the U.S. dollar lose its place as the world's reserve currency? Despite a long-term trend toward currency diversification, we don't see the dollar losing dominance anytime soon.
Mastering Client Meetings: How Much Investment Information to Provide?
Let’s explore how to strike the right balance to keep your client meetings engaging, relevant, and impactful.
Trump Calls for Lower Interest Rates as Powell Heads to Hill
President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, seeking to raise pressure on the Federal Reserve as he moves to implement a second-term economic agenda high on tariffs and expanding tax breaks.
Nvidia Shares No Longer Bulletproof as DeepSeek Fears Linger
Nvidia Corp. investors have typically rushed to buy the stock on any dips. But the mood since the DeepSeek-driven rout has been different, signaling that fears of a slowdown in AI spending aren’t going away.
Strong Jobs Report, But Tariffs Take Focus
The employment report was uniformly strong except for one component: the average hours worked per week fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, which may be weather related.
Narrow Markets Are the Exception, Not the Rule
We explore why extreme market concentration is unsustainable, how competition and innovation drive broader market performance, and why diversification is key as volatility rises. Don’t let market extremes catch you off guard.
Merger Arbitrage: The Stars Could Be Aligning
Is an M&A boom brewing?
Safe Haven From the Trade War?
Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.
Municipal Bonds Favored by Many Advisors
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
Direct Lending vs. Asset-Based Lending: An Analysis of Private Credit Markets
As these two strategies evolve, financial advisors must understand their nuances to align client portfolios with current market conditions and future financial goals.
Goldman Sachs’ Exclusive Investing Club Is a Powerful Draw
Bloomberg’s bonus calculator offers a revealing look at the divergent value of Wall Street employee payouts.
The Tariff Tug-of-War: Balancing Economic Growth and Trade Relations
Exploring the delicate balance between protectionism and global cooperation
Bringing the Private-Asset Dimension to Target-Date Glide Paths
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
Earnings Season Off to a Strong Start
We provide an update on the 4Q24 earnings season and explain why our positive outlook on tech- related companies remains unchanged.
Putting ‘Fixed Income’ Back Into Fixed Income: Cash-Flow-Matched Bond Strategies for Retirees
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
The Mirage of More: Why Chasing Big Returns and Bold Bets Undermine Long-Term Success
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
Here We Go Again: Merton Share and Why I Don’t Use Retirement Calculators
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Three Reasons to Consider Dedicated Emerging Market Debt Exposure
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Tactical Rules Turn Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
Private Equity and 401(k)s Aren’t a Great Match
Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Treasuries Extend Losses as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Path Intact
US government bonds fell as mixed employment data left traders holding tight to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until later this year.
Politics and Investing
While domestic politics can certainly influence asset prices, it is just one of many variables, and our research has shown it to be an inaccurate indicator of future returns. We caution investors against making changes to their portfolios based on political developments.
When Investors Own Canada and Don’t Realize It
There weren’t too many market observers who penciled in higher tariffs on Canada than on China, but that’s where things stood, at least for a few hours, before Trump struck a deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Concentrated Stock Positions: High Rewards, Higher Risks – What to Know Before Betting Big on One Stock
The recent dominance of the “Magnificent 7” technology names may help fuel the common belief that a single stock portfolio is the best way to deliver extraordinary returns.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: January 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Like most incoming administrations, President Trump entered office with a desire to do things differently than his predecessor, and he is certainly doing that.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Active Fixed Income ETFs Can Extend Momentum in 2025
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
U.S. ETF Count Reaches 4,000 With Launches From Cohen & Steers, Thornburg & More
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Vanguard’s Record Fee Cut Puts Rivals BlackRock, Invesco in Tough Spot
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
ECB: Heading Towards Neutral
Despite still elevated domestic inflation, weak growth and inflation projected at target this year strengthen the case for further rate cuts.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
In the Hunt for Income, It’s Wise to Broaden Your Horizons
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
QuantStreet February 2025 Letter: More of the Same
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
2 Funds to Ponder After a Strong Year for Bond ETFs
In the case of bond ETFs, it was a strong year in 2024, and key areas could be touch points for investment opportunities.
Traders Rush to Safety in Loan ETFs Again on Interest-Rate Pain
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Apollo Raises Record From Private Wealth as Credit Grows
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
American Exceptionalism and the Markets
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Bifurcated Advancements in 401(k) Investments
Finally, an innovation has arrived in 401(k) investing. PTDAs are new. They combine multiple target date glidepaths with managed accounts, potentially using the best of both. Because they are new, it will be easy to think of them all as being the same, but that is far from the truth.
Vanguard’s Average Fee Is Now Just 0.07% After Biggest-Ever Cut
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Index Mania: On Top of the World
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Fed Holds Steady, Keeps Door Open to Future Moves
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Fed Sees No Need to Hurry
Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
Credit Skeptics Place a $10 Billion Bet in High-Priced Market
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
2025 Equity and Volatility Outlook: Is the US Equity Investor at a Crossroad?
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
China Seeks Wiggle Room for Growth in Year of the Snake
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
AI in Flux
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Insights From our Q4 2024 Economic and Market Review
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
Treasuries Slip as Traders Scrutinize Powell’s Inflation Remarks
US Treasuries were lower as traders parsed tweaks to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement regarding progress on the fight against inflation.
Balancing Yield & Total Return
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
The S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 2.3% on Monday over DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that developed a model competitive with the US’s very best — and, supposedly, on the cheap.
Investors to Watch Powell’s Tone as Market Teeters
As the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting begins, investors have accepted that the central bank probably won’t be cutting interest rates this time.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
Why Non-Profit Investors Should Think Twice Before De-Risking
High expected fixed income returns imply many non-profit investors could de-risk while still expecting to achieve their stated return objective.