Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Advice boosts workers’ confidence in choosing investments—from 35% to 65%. Learn how our industry-leading asset allocation expertise can help participants make investment choices with more confidence and help employers reach their plan goals.
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
I learned a lot in 2022. Here were my biggest epiphanies.
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
Deep value offers a compelling opportunity within U.S. equities.
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
Chinese equities have been on a tear in the first week of 2023, and investors are gearing up for more gains with consumer-related stocks expected to spearhead the surge.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
Relative to the accumulation phase, strategies that mitigate the unique risks faced by retirees in decumulation are less understood and researched. By identifying and illustrating those risks, planners can better prepare clients for retirement.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
The Aiguille du Midi, neighboring popular Mont Blanc in the French Alps, is famous for having the highest vertical ascent cable car in the world, a vertigo-inducing ride that is equal parts scary and awe-inspiring.
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
Managing your portfolio has more to do with gardening than you might imagine.
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history.
As the world economy prepares for a true transition to decarbonization, interest in renewable energy has re-emerged as an important topic for investors. This interview features Rene Reyna, who is head of thematic and specialty product strategy for the ETFs and Indexed Strategies teams at Invesco.
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
Allan Roth’s recent article, The 4% Rule Just Became a Whole Lot Easier, promises too much, makes inaccurate comparisons and blurs the notion of risk.
As investors increasingly seek out more personalized options, many advisors are seeing direct indexing grow in popularity. Direct indexing is a type of separately managed account or SMA, where investors can express their personal values and tax preferences. The personalization and flexibility afforded by an SMA allows advisors the flexibility to manage each client’s tax situation and reflect their values. Dimensional Fund Advisors recently conducted research into the tax management benefits of an SMA. It found that a multifaceted tax management approach that goes beyond tax loss harvesting and considers tax implications at every step of the investing process can lead to more significant, longer-term gains. Here from Dimensional to discuss further is Kaitlin Hendrix, senior researcher and vice president.
“I have never seen so much bearishness in the market,” Jeremy Siegel said, “which is a great sign for stock investors.”
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
From the earliest days of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the 1950s, practitioners have spoken of using it for investment fund management.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed after the Global Financial Crisis and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.
Things are looking up for people who are close to retirement, according to a Morningstar report published Monday.
Yield is set to be a more important component of total return for investors during the next few years as the “Fed Put” exerts less influence on markets.
Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. Superbubble, as Jeremy Grantham has termed it, featured the most dangerous mix of factors in modern times at the end of last year: all three major asset classes – housing, stocks, and bonds – were critically historically overvalued.
The Fed’s mandate is stable prices and maximum employment.
As the super-growth cycle is ending in dramatic fashion, we are already seeing some of the most attractive valuation opportunities in years.
We’ve broken down nine of the best 529 plans.
More balanced risk strategies in PLIBs are likely to be optimal (e.g., 40-50% equities), although the ability to personalize the risk level is important based on the household situation and preferences.
When I heard that the investment management firm GMO had created a retirement planning tool to mitigate “sequence of returns” risk I looked forward to learning about it. After setting aside a stumbling block or two in its white papers, I found it to be the best platform for financial advisors I have ever seen.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008.
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
It's the end of the world!
It’s been a spectacular year for the US dollar. Using the popular broad dollar index, it managed to rise to its highest level since 2002 by the end of September. Since then, the greenback has endured a peak-to-trough fall of more than 9% and continues to trend downward.
After a challenging 2022, it is time for investors to look forward to opportunities. Emerging Markets (EM) debt stands out as one place where investors can potentially take advantage of an underutilized asset class that offers attractive yields and diversification.
“95 years ago, your crystal ball reveals: Russian debt default, LTCM fail, DotCom implosion, 9/11 attacks, financial crisis and great recession, pandemic killing millions, 3 market crashes. Would you put your money into stocks? No? You missed a 10X return.”
In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.
Stocks are overbought and overvalued relative to bonds.
There’s enormous scope for India and Greater China to increase GDP per capita relative to the U.S. and other developed nations
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
We continue to believe that a value-conscious, risk-managed, full-cycle discipline, focused on the combination of valuations and market internals, will be essential in navigating market volatility in the years ahead.
Key Takeaways
David Dali, head of portfolio strategy, explains how emerging markets can give investors ballast to navigate macro headwinds and position portfolios for growth.
To properly guide their clients, financial advisors must have a good understanding of the long-run behavior of stock and bonds returns.
How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.
Regardless of your long-term view on bonds, Treasuries are beginning to look undervalued from a cyclical perspective.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
We believe private credit is an attractive investment with greater market coverage and a timely opportunity to benefit from the scarcity of fresh capital.
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.
With the year winding down, investors might think they’ve seen it all. But one element of market dysfunction that’s largely flown under the radar is increased friction within the US Treasury market. Treasuries are experiencing a liquidity decline on the back of economic uncertainty and higher volatility, with large blocks of government debt increasingly hard to trade.
This week, around my trip to a far-too-cold Denver, then to Dallas, and ultimately Tulsa to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family, Keith and I did a 45-minute "interview" via Zoom. Less an interview, perhaps, than the two old friends catching up. I was surprised how many topics Keith and I aligned on perfectly, though our few disagreements about what comes next made for a great debate.
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
Amundi SA is removing the European Union’s highest ESG designation from virtually all funds that once carried it, as it joins a growing list of investment firms that have been wrong-footed by a change in regulatory guidelines in the bloc.
Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.
This piece introduces the protected lifetime income benefit (PLIB) to describe an emerging category of longevity-protected solutions.
Asset Allocation
How the Greatest Female Poker Player Reduces Risk
Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
The 10 Most Important Things I Tell Clients
Over the past couple of decades, I’ve told clients many very important things. Most of them are timeless, which is why I find myself saying the same things repeatedly. Here are the top 10, and I’ve saved my most important for last.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
We Asked ChatGPT to Make a Market-Beating ETF. Here’s What Happened
What happens when you ask the hottest AI tool in the world to design an ETF that can beat the US equity market? It tells you the same thing every frustrated stock manager does.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Boost workers' investment confidence and help meet retirement plan goals
Advice boosts workers’ confidence in choosing investments—from 35% to 65%. Learn how our industry-leading asset allocation expertise can help participants make investment choices with more confidence and help employers reach their plan goals.
Macro Hedge Funds Had a Banner Year. Can They Stage an Encore?
Macro hedge funds, which look at economic trends and take advantage of dislocations across asset classes, had a banner year in 2022.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
My Biggest Epiphanies in 2022
I learned a lot in 2022. Here were my biggest epiphanies.
Areté Market Review Q422: Cash is King-ish
It's easy to take the wrong signal from recent market strength.
Will RIAs be Liable for Failed Retirement Income Planning?
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
Equities Are Searching for Clarity
Market volatility and the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce inflation will continue to garner attention.
Family Offices Bypass Private Equity Funds to Make Bets Directly
Money managers for the ultra-wealthy are eschewing traditional private equity funds and betting directly on upstart companies.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Quantamental Investing: A Brief Primer on KCR’s Toolkits
At KCR, we believe in the Quantamental Investment approach–a strategy that leverages the most useful aspects of both quantitative investing and fundamental investing.
Memo To The Investment Committee: A Hidden Gem
Deep value offers a compelling opportunity within U.S. equities.
Amazon, Salesforce Job Cuts Are Warning Signs for Stock Prices
Tens of thousands of tech sector job cuts may not be enough to reverse the collapse in share prices, given the looming economic downturn could slash companies’ revenues far more than the cost savings they make via layoffs.
The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
When Old Rules Break Down, Consider a New Investing Approach
One of the biggest breakdowns has been in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Stock prices and bond prices are usually not correlated, meaning bonds can serve as the cornerstone of a hedge when stock prices waver and drop.
China Stock Traders Bet Consumption Will Supercharge 2023 Rally
Chinese equities have been on a tear in the first week of 2023, and investors are gearing up for more gains with consumer-related stocks expected to spearhead the surge.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,364 for an annualized real return of 5.8%.
Federal Reserve Continues Quest to Slow U.S. Economy
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
JPMorgan’s Smash-Hit ‘Income’ ETF Seen Battling Off Bond Market
One of the biggest hits in the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund industry last year has a worthy opponent in 2023: the bond market.
Alternative Investments: The Case for Real Estate
Public and private real estate investments present a compelling opportunity in the current environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, according to Daniel Scher and Blair Schmicker from Franklin Equity Group.
The Dollar Will Weaken, But Not Yet
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
The Four Unique Risks in Decumulation
Relative to the accumulation phase, strategies that mitigate the unique risks faced by retirees in decumulation are less understood and researched. By identifying and illustrating those risks, planners can better prepare clients for retirement.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 5.9% in December, Down 19.4% in 2022
Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.
Gold 2023 Outlook: Recession and Rates to Remain in Focus
George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.
60/40 Portfolio Set to Outperform Over the Next Decade
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
Zooming in on Fixed Income as We Head into 2023
The Aiguille du Midi, neighboring popular Mont Blanc in the French Alps, is famous for having the highest vertical ascent cable car in the world, a vertigo-inducing ride that is equal parts scary and awe-inspiring.
The 70% Solution
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
Why Gardening Can Help You Manage Your Portfolio Better
Managing your portfolio has more to do with gardening than you might imagine.
The Federal Reserve is Killing Capitalism
The Fed’s repeated manipulation of the price of capital has weakened productivity growth and reduced economic activity. Ultimately it is the citizens that pay the price.
They’ve Ruled Out Tail Risk
As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history.
The Outlook for Clean Energy Investing
As the world economy prepares for a true transition to decarbonization, interest in renewable energy has re-emerged as an important topic for investors. This interview features Rene Reyna, who is head of thematic and specialty product strategy for the ETFs and Indexed Strategies teams at Invesco.
Capital Neglect is Killing Capitalism
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
The 4% Rule Did Not Become a Whole Lot Easier
Allan Roth’s recent article, The 4% Rule Just Became a Whole Lot Easier, promises too much, makes inaccurate comparisons and blurs the notion of risk.
New Research on Tax-Advantaged Direct Indexing
As investors increasingly seek out more personalized options, many advisors are seeing direct indexing grow in popularity. Direct indexing is a type of separately managed account or SMA, where investors can express their personal values and tax preferences. The personalization and flexibility afforded by an SMA allows advisors the flexibility to manage each client’s tax situation and reflect their values. Dimensional Fund Advisors recently conducted research into the tax management benefits of an SMA. It found that a multifaceted tax management approach that goes beyond tax loss harvesting and considers tax implications at every step of the investing process can lead to more significant, longer-term gains. Here from Dimensional to discuss further is Kaitlin Hendrix, senior researcher and vice president.
Jeremy Siegel: The Excessive Bearishness is Great for Equity Investors
“I have never seen so much bearishness in the market,” Jeremy Siegel said, “which is a great sign for stock investors.”
Fourth Quarter 2022 Economic Review and Outlook
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
Not Even AI Can Beat the Market These Days
From the earliest days of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the 1950s, practitioners have spoken of using it for investment fund management.
Sea Change
In his latest memo, Howard Marks writes that the investment world may be experiencing the third major sea change of the last 50 years. Events in recent years – especially the spike in inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response – appear to have caused a reversal of the market conditions that prevailed after the Global Financial Crisis and for much of the last four decades. Howard discusses what this potentially new era could mean for lenders, especially bargain hunters.
There's A Little Bit of Good News for Americans Close to Retirement
Things are looking up for people who are close to retirement, according to a Morningstar report published Monday.
Harnessing The Power Of Duration
Yield is set to be a more important component of total return for investors during the next few years as the “Fed Put” exerts less influence on markets.
2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets, “A year of Two halves”
Emerging Markets (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. Superbubble
The U.S. Superbubble, as Jeremy Grantham has termed it, featured the most dangerous mix of factors in modern times at the end of last year: all three major asset classes – housing, stocks, and bonds – were critically historically overvalued.
Still Too Early For A Fed Pivot
The Fed’s mandate is stable prices and maximum employment.
Opportunities In Today’s Environment
As the super-growth cycle is ending in dramatic fashion, we are already seeing some of the most attractive valuation opportunities in years.
The Best 529 Plans for 2023 and Beyond
We’ve broken down nine of the best 529 plans.
Optimal Risk Levels for PLIB Strategies: Personalization is Key
More balanced risk strategies in PLIBs are likely to be optimal (e.g., 40-50% equities), although the ability to personalize the risk level is important based on the household situation and preferences.
GMO’s New Asset Management Platform
When I heard that the investment management firm GMO had created a retirement planning tool to mitigate “sequence of returns” risk I looked forward to learning about it. After setting aside a stumbling block or two in its white papers, I found it to be the best platform for financial advisors I have ever seen.
Final Fed Meeting of 2022 Comes Into Focus For Investors
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Top Money Managers See Global Stocks Gaining in 2023
Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008.
Lessons From The “Nifty Fifty”
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
Are Your Clients Worried About A Market Crash? A Checklist For Survival
It's the end of the world!
The Sum of All Fears Is Falling With the Dollar
It’s been a spectacular year for the US dollar. Using the popular broad dollar index, it managed to rise to its highest level since 2002 by the end of September. Since then, the greenback has endured a peak-to-trough fall of more than 9% and continues to trend downward.
Why Emerging Market Debt?
After a challenging 2022, it is time for investors to look forward to opportunities. Emerging Markets (EM) debt stands out as one place where investors can potentially take advantage of an underutilized asset class that offers attractive yields and diversification.
Newsletter Volume 15, No. 5
“95 years ago, your crystal ball reveals: Russian debt default, LTCM fail, DotCom implosion, 9/11 attacks, financial crisis and great recession, pandemic killing millions, 3 market crashes. Would you put your money into stocks? No? You missed a 10X return.”
What Really Matters?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.
Buy Bonds, Sell Stocks
Stocks are overbought and overvalued relative to bonds.
India and Greater China: Exploring the Investment Opportunities
There’s enormous scope for India and Greater China to increase GDP per capita relative to the U.S. and other developed nations
Market Forecasts
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Alternative Tech Stack
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
December 2022 Portfolio Notes
We continue to believe that a value-conscious, risk-managed, full-cycle discipline, focused on the combination of valuations and market internals, will be essential in navigating market volatility in the years ahead.
Grasp of Equity Indices Nuances Enhances Market Insights
Key Takeaways
Five Reasons Why Emerging Markets Are Investable Today
David Dali, head of portfolio strategy, explains how emerging markets can give investors ballast to navigate macro headwinds and position portfolios for growth.
The Long-Run Behavior of Stocks, Government Bonds, and Inflation in the U.S.
To properly guide their clients, financial advisors must have a good understanding of the long-run behavior of stock and bonds returns.
Higher Bond Yields Can Be Fundamental to a Recession Investing Playbook
How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.
Time To Buy Bonds?
Regardless of your long-term view on bonds, Treasuries are beginning to look undervalued from a cyclical perspective.
Five Reasons Why Emerging Markets Are Investable Today
David Dali, head of portfolio strategy, explains how emerging markets can give investors ballast to navigate macro headwinds and position portfolios for growth.
Fixed Income Strategy if a Recession is Declared
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Private Credit: Why We Believe ‘Now’ Is the Time to Invest
We believe private credit is an attractive investment with greater market coverage and a timely opportunity to benefit from the scarcity of fresh capital.
More Bearish Market Action Before The Bull Can Run
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
Contrasting Protected Lifetime Income Benefits (PLIBs) Against Other Annuities (Part 2)
This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.
What's Behind the Drop in Treasury Market Liquidity?
With the year winding down, investors might think they’ve seen it all. But one element of market dysfunction that’s largely flown under the radar is increased friction within the US Treasury market. Treasuries are experiencing a liquidity decline on the back of economic uncertainty and higher volatility, with large blocks of government debt increasingly hard to trade.
An Interview with Keith Fitz-Gerald
This week, around my trip to a far-too-cold Denver, then to Dallas, and ultimately Tulsa to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family, Keith and I did a 45-minute "interview" via Zoom. Less an interview, perhaps, than the two old friends catching up. I was surprised how many topics Keith and I aligned on perfectly, though our few disagreements about what comes next made for a great debate.
Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors in 2023
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
Amundi Downgrades ESG Funds as Sector Faces $85 Billion Hit
Amundi SA is removing the European Union’s highest ESG designation from virtually all funds that once carried it, as it joins a growing list of investment firms that have been wrong-footed by a change in regulatory guidelines in the bloc.
The Case for Annuities in Today’s Market
Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.
Introducing Protected Lifetime Income Benefits (PLIBs): Part 1
This piece introduces the protected lifetime income benefit (PLIB) to describe an emerging category of longevity-protected solutions.