The Fed’s in a bind. Policy uncertainty is high. And tariffs are likely to hit the U.S. economy with a “stagflation-lite” impulse in coming quarters—weaker growth and higher prices.
Eitelman began by assessing the health of the U.S. economy through hard and soft data. He explained that hard data refers to measures of actual spending and economic activity, while soft data refers to how companies and consumers respond to surveys.
Talk of a recession is everywhere. The case is simple: Liberation Day delivered the biggest increase in tariffs in a century. Consumer prices will rise. Purchasing power will decline. Recession…right?
After several weeks of steep selloffs, the major averages roared back on Wednesday as the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs.
U.S. stocks underperformed in the first quarter of 2025, hit by a double whammy from intensifying policy uncertainty and a U-turn in select mega cap stocks.
he central bank made a technical move on the balance sheet, reducing the pace of permitted runoff in its Treasury holdings from $25 to $5 billion per month.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director & Chief Investment Strategist for North America Paul Eitelman discussed the main themes from U.S. 4Q 2024 earnings season, and provided a U.S. trade policy update & recent announcements from global central banks.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed key watchpoints for investors in the wake of the U.S. elections. He also explained how the election results are impacting markets, and finished with an update on the latest monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed the details surrounding China’s latest stimulus announcements. He also reviewed early U.S. third-quarter earnings results as well as the latest U.S. macroeconomic data.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Head of AIS Portfolio & Business Consulting, Sophie Antal-Gilbert, discussed the rally in Chinese equities.
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining meetings in 2024 and to sustain that pace into 2025. This trajectory would get the Fed down to our estimate of the normal or equilibrium rate of interest of 3%-3.25% this time next year.
A negative market reaction was triggered by a sharp selloff in Japanese stocks into the close earlier [Monday], with the Topix and Nikkei indices suffering 12% declines – their worst day since 1987. The selloff cascaded through global markets with the EuroStoxx 600 trading down over 3% on Monday and S&P 500 down about 3%.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Regional Director for North America Advisor & Intermediary Solutions, Lam Guluka, discussed key market themes from the second quarter.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Equity Manager Research Analyst Michelle Batjargal discussed the results of first-quarter earnings season around the globe.
Our investment leadership team convened twice on Sunday to discuss the conflict between Iran and Israel, its key watchpoints in the days ahead, and the pertinent risks onto markets, our investment portfolios, and our clients. The team broadly agreed that maintaining a slightly defensive posture across portfolio strategies remained appropriate.
The consumer price index (CPI) for January showed that core inflation held steady at a rate of 3.9% last month, a small setback in a trend of moderating inflation in the U.S. Healing in global supply chains and a rebalancing of the U.S. labor market have helped to dramatically tame inflation over the past year.
There will be a lot of firsts for the economic history books if this business cycle can survive a labor market slowdown, 525 basis points (bps) of rate hikes and an extremely inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve.
The global economy is still overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels, with more than 80% of primary energy sourced from coal, oil, and gas, as of 2021.
There is broad agreement that economic damages will increase with warming, but there is substantial disagreement on the magnitude of these damages.
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are difficult to replace due to their availability, affordability and energy density. Low-carbon alternatives, like solar energy, need large amounts of space to produce comparable amounts of energy to oil.
A transition away from fossil fuels is likely required to avert a significant warming of the planet. Rising temperatures could lead to crop failures, storm intensification, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, and infrastructure damage, among several other risks.
A transition away from fossil fuels is likely required to avert a significant warming of the planet. The primary risk to markets is the energy transition itself, which would require substantial capital expenditures.
Negotiations among lawmakers in Washington, D.C., to raise the debt ceiling might trend in a more favorable direction.
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
At the conclusion of its inaugural policy meeting of 2023 today, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a smaller, quarter-point rate hike, as widely expected by markets.
Is a recession lurking around the corner in 2023? If so, how might it impact defined benefit (DB) plan sponsors—and what steps, if any, should they consider taking?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Research Analyst Laura Bardewyck reviewed early results from second-quarter earnings season.
Key takeaways from Powell's renomination and his remarks on inflation, as well as an assessment of the risks the omicron variant of COVID-19 may pose to markets.
Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed had been holding the market’s hand in the lead-up to the tapering decision, making it abundantly clear that a decision was imminent at today’s meeting and effectively pre-announcing all of the relevant details of the decision...
Effective vaccines, historic fiscal stimulus, Democratic Party control of the legislature, even more stimulus, reopening economies, 6% U.S. real GDP (gross domestic product) growth, 25% U.S. EPS (earnings per share) growth, and maybe even an infrastructure plan sprinkled on top.
We believe that the recently announced U.S. stimulus deal reinforces the positive economic outlook for 2021. Here's why.
Key takeaways for investors amid the tightening race for the White House and control of the Senate.
Five companies now comprise 26% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500® Index, making for the most concentrated U.S. equity market in the last 40 years. What are the potential dangers of this for investors?
Potential for a large payoff on value strategies may exist soon, if history is any guide.
With a very healthy dose of humility, let’s take a look at what a reopening of the global economy may look like.
Global equity index futures are trading up about 4% this morning. The coronavirus data over the weekend was less bad. The growth rate in new confirmed cases over the last 24 hours globally was the lowest since March 17—a welcome sign that containment measures are gaining some traction in slowing the spread of the disease.
As the world continues to grapple with the coronavirus, some areas of the market are showing signs of incremental improvement.
The U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled a series of significant policy measures to help sustain the economy.
Amid ongoing market chop, more positive signs are emerging from policymakers and central banks as efforts to soften the economic damage caused by the coronavirus continue.
One of the keys to the outlook here is the ability of businesses to get to the other side of potentially acute short-term cash flow problems. Fiscal policy holds the necessary antidotes in its ability to provide targeted, material support to impacted sectors.
Our outlook for interest rates, assessed through our investing framework of cycle, valuation and sentiment.
Markets around the world are tumbling on fears that the coronavirus could significantly derail global economic growth.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut interest rates again—its third such move in as many meetings—lowering its benchmark rate to a target range of 1.50% to 1.75%.
The Fed lowered interest rates for the second time this year at the conclusion of its FOMC meeting. Is another cut possible before year-end?
This is the longest U.S. economic expansion ever. And while expansions don’t die of old age, it’s prudent for investors and central bankers to think now about the potential consequences of the next global recession.
