The U.S. economic expansion is now the third-longest on record. Does this mean a recession is looming? Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman digs into the data and assesses the risks.
In each of the first three quarters of 2017, there have been double-digit year-over-year percentage increases in the quarterly average level of the S&P 500 stock-price index – 19.3% in Q1, 15.5% in Q2 and 14.2% in Q3.
The former UK Finance Minister has warned that nobody know what will happen next. So it's time to prepare contingency plans for rising interest rates, a China slowdown, trade protectionism/Brexit and growing political chaos.
The Fed is dazed and confused (with apologies to Jake Holmes) about the lack of goods/services price inflation currently present in the U.S. economy. No matter how you slice or dice the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Chain Price Index, its annualized growth has not trended above 2% since 2011.
Value stocks have underperformed most other styles of investing, as well as the broad market, by a wide margin since the beginning of 2015. We see several reasons why, which point to the catalysts for a potential recovery; we do not think Value is past its prime.
This commentary contains slides from a presentation by Paul Kasriel.
In recent weeks, the U.S. has experienced two natural disasters – Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Much real property was damaged or destroyed by these two hurricanes. There will be an increase in construction expenditures to repair and replace damaged/destroyed buildings and homes.
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to begin the process of balance sheet normalization, or quantitative tightening, this fall. What kind of impact to markets is expected?