Facebook’s margins could ebb this year, but they remain at elevated levels and profits could still grow meaningfully.

The global economic expansion has already entered its 10th year. With bumpy and brittle growth having given way to a robust and globally synchronized conjuncture, an aging cycle has suddenly become much more cyclical.

Rising rates are adding new risks to equity markets. Stocks of companies that are saddled with debt have underperformed recently. And leverage is especially high in sectors widely seen as safe havens.

Another month and another new high in equity valuations, at least relative to sales. Indeed, the median company in our developed world index (which covers the top 85% of companies in each country) just achieved a price to sales ratio that eclipsed the 2000 peak.

If the only difference between playing for digital coins in mobile games and mining for cryptocurrencies is the ability to openly trade the coins for goods and services, one should wonder if the crypto frenzy is worth the hype and speculation. We think not.

Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents.

On March 16, news broke that British political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica had gained improper access to data from as many as 50 million Facebook users (an estimate that has since been upped to 87 million).

To paraphrase the motto of the former iconic Chicago department store, Marshall Field’s, give the customers what they want. To give the “customers” a preview of what they are going to get, let me state that thin-air credit growth has slowed to a rate that is low both from a long-run and short-run perspective.

The March reports remained consistent with the view that inflation will move toward the Fed’s 2% goal, perhaps sooner than expected. The FOMC minutes were not expected to surprise, but several Fed officials felt that it might be appropriate to move the federal funds rate above a neutral level for a time.

Many investors who thought worrying about inflation was “so 20th century” may now be seeing reasons to reconsider: The business cycle in the U.S. is mature, output gaps have closed, trade frictions are mounting and populism is on the rise.

Investing 101 tells us that rising interest rates are bad for a bond portfolio. But if you’ve got a long investment horizon, that isn’t necessarily so. We think investors should be more concerned about the end of the credit cycle than rising rates.

While a few companies in the US technology space have been in the hot seat lately, Jonathan Curtis, vice president and research analyst with Franklin Equity Group, is largely unfazed. He said temporary “blips” affecting certain stocks are par for the course as consumers get used to new technologies—and how they impact our lives.

Last night the China Shanghai CSI 300 index fell a bit more than 1.6%, taking out February lows and setting a new YTD low for the index. This is important since the global equity markets have a very high correlation to Chinese stocks.

Most global equity markets declined in the first quarter despite the corporate sector generally reporting reasonable fundamental data. As a result, GMO's 7-year equity forecasts mostly improved over the first quarter. Even with these improvements, International and U.S. equities are still forecast to have flat to negative real returns over the next 7 years, with Emerging equities remaining an exception, forecast to have a positive real return of 1.9%.

David was the King of Israel and the writer of many of the Psalms. He spent his formative years as a shepherd and framed his life’s work around the key concepts from his profession. Herds were the primary form of wealth back then, while common stocks are a primary form today.

These are two of the most important paragraphs we have encountered in more than 47 years of studying markets. DO NOT read them just once. Go off to a quiet spot that invites contemplation and READ THEM SEVERAL TIMES. Then reflect on all of the mistakes you have made in trading and investing.

When the report on international trade came out earlier this month, protectionists were up in arms. Through February, the US' merchandise (goods only, not services) trade deficit with the rest of the world was the largest for any two-month period on record. "Economic nationalists" from both sides of the political aisle, think this situation is unsustainable.

The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on housing. Earnings season begins in earnest, with widespread, high expectations.

TIPS declined 1.1% on average in the 2018 first quarter, less than the 1.6% decline in comparable maturity straight Treasurys. The average breakeven spread widened to 222 bp from 184 bp at the end of 2017. Short-maturity TIPS delivered a positive return, as investors sought a haven from rising interest rates and inflation.

2018 began much as 2017 ended, with steadily rising equity markets, low interest rates and burgeoning market optimism. Indeed, investors were increasingly convinced that the lowest stock and bond market volatility since 1965 was set to continue in 2018. Who could blame them?

This is the third of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 20 that I presented...

The acceleration in U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in March was in line with expectations, and likely a welcome development for Federal Reserve officials after a surprising string of soft inflation prints last year.

Equities experienced heightened volatility during the first quarter of 2018, with the S&P 500 Index surging 7.55% from Dec. 31 2017, through Jan. 26, 2018, before dropping nearly 8% through quarter-end.

Today we’re going to look at who wins and who loses under the new tax law. I think many of you will be surprised.

How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.

You’ve no doubt heard that everything’s bigger in Texas. That’s more than just a trite expression, and I’m not just saying that because Texas is home to U.S. Global Investors.

There have been some violent market moves recently, but it’s important for investors to keep things in perspective.

It’s easy to understand why the return of equity market volatility in the first quarter of 2018 caused some consternation for investors.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for April? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

The complexion of the market changed in the first quarter as volatility spiked. Now is the time for investors to be very clear about what they get in return for committing capital to risky investments.