Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Total Return Perspectives: November 2021

Interest rates were mixed in November, as shorter maturity yields continued to rise while longer maturity yields fell further. The continued flattening of the yield curve reflects the market’s expectation that the Fed will be more aggressive in their tapering of official purchases and potentially raise the fed funds target rate more quickly and aggressively than previously thought.

Volatility and Fear

In recent weeks, the stock market has decided the economic pain associated with an eventual tightening of fiscal and monetary policy is more likely to come sooner rather than later.

2022 Schwab Market Outlook: Ebb Tide

The S&P 500 index is up more than 20% so far this year, but more than 90% of its member stocks have had “correction” level drawdowns—more than 10% from a peak—at some point this year. In short, while overall stock market performance has been strong, there has been a lot of churn beneath the surface.

The Fed's Dilemma

The November Employment Report was a mixed bag. Nonfarm payrolls rose less than anticipated, but the unemployment rate fell sharply. The shortfall in payrolls (relative to expectations) likely reflects the usual noise in the monthly data, it might reflect difficulties in hiring, but it certainly doesn’t reflect weak labor demand.

21 Interesting Metaverse Stocks: 6 Prudent Buys: 4 Speculations: The Rest?

Although you can learn a great deal from the past you can only invest in the future. Today many believe the future of the Internet and technology is the Metaverse. Therefore, I have begun putting together a portfolio of stocks that are poised to participate in the next stage of technology growth – the Metaverse.

Impact Investing: Addressing Local Needs with Precision and Purpose

Impact investing, which seeks to make a direct—and measurable—social or environmental impact while generating a financial return, has historically been synonymous with the private debt and equity markets. But that ignores the hugely important public market of municipal finance.

Spotlight Tokyo Electron: Shifting Left

Since its founding in 1963, Tokyo Electron has been accumulating the technological expertise it builds on to deliver industry-leading production equipment in two product categories: semiconductors and flat panel displays.

Omicron's Emergence

The new variant will test our ability to live with COVID-19

Bitcoin Could Fix Turkey’s Currency Crisis

Like many others, I believe Bitcoin could fix Turkey’s lira problem. And to understand why, it might be helpful to dust off a book written 45 years ago by Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek.

Capital Excess

The employers who kept DB plans without adequately funding them and/or generating returns sufficient to pay the promised benefits. It is a systemic problem that affects others. Today we’ll discuss this problem and some of its macro-level consequences.

Modern Slavery: How Investors Can Help the Victims

With profits from forced labor estimated at US$150 billion a year, some companies in global portfolios could be unwittingly associated with modern slavery. The good news: businesses and investors can help tackle the problem—individually and through collaboration.

Muni Impact of US Infrastructure Bill Could Prove Longer Term

While the new US infrastructure investment bill didn’t have any initiatives directly targeting the municipal bond market, there are still implications for munis in the longer term, according to our Municipal Bond Director of Research Jennifer Johnston. She explains the ramifications for investors in the space.

Growth Cycle Outlook: Growth Bounce, Then Deflation

It appears as though we may be heading towards an inflection point in early 2022 whereby we begin to see the rate of growth continue its deceleration to the downside. Whether inflation follows suit remains to be seen, though my base case in the direction of change in inflation could surprise to the upside again in December and perhaps even January.

Can the Fed Overcome Its Transitory Policy Mistake?

The later the US Federal Reserve is in reacting properly to inflationary developments, the greater the likelihood that it will have to hit the policy brakes hard, causing market turmoil and unnecessary economic pain. The Fed must now do two things quickly.

Spotlight Tokyo Electron: Shifting Left

Since its founding in 1963, Tokyo Electron has been accumulating the technological expertise it builds on to deliver industry-leading production equipment in two product categories: semiconductors and flat panel displays.