Following the election, stock market participants gained optimism on the view that the new administration would push through a reduction in regulations, sharply boost infrastructure spending, and achieve broad tax reform.

While some investors are freaking out about investigations, tweets, or the personality of President Trump, we are still watching policy.

When evaluating investment strategies it’s critical to understand the nature of the leverage being used.

Volatility is remarkably low today, but it’s not likely to stay that way. Alternatives have the potential to provide diversification and reduce risk when markets get stormy again. But what’s the best way to design an alternatives allocation?

We met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan for a quarterly update right before the French presidential elections. In addition to calling Macron’s win, Peter outlined the three most important geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months.

This is one of the more important pieces I’m sharing with you. It’s a candid look at where we are in the economic cycle and what that likely means for the global markets.

Because changing technologies and trade patterns can be both beneficial and disruptive, countries must strike a balance between the abstract principle of openness and concrete measures to limit their negative impact. To this end, policymakers should be mindful of not just how but when they implement structural reforms.

My friend Mark Hulbert once had a philosophy professor at Oxford, who distinguished two ways of being wrong: “You can be just plain wrong, or you can be wrong in an interesting way.” In the latter case, Mark explained, correcting the wrong reveals a lot about the underlying truth.

This letter will cover the philosophical underpinnings of my thinking. I’ll also introduce some investment tools (which I will give you access to through a link later on in the letter) that express that philosophy, but you could also design a different answer that fits your own (or your client’s) portfolio construction.

The Fed story may well command attention. I classify it as an important story, but not an urgent one. I have some strongly-held viewpoints:

1. The exact timing of rate hikes is not important for long-term investors. The Fed has been following a policy of rate increases in line with economic data. While many do not believe this, the data are supportive. Tim Duy on recent strength.
   
2. That said, the rate increases have second- and third-order effects. The perception of the pace of hikes impacts exchange rates. The weaker dollar affects major corporate earnings – in both directions. This makes the Fed news worth watching.
   
3. Current data are stronger than widely thought, but much depends upon how one views the Q1 softness—meaningful or aberrant. Recent Fed speeches suggest a moderation in the rate-hike path.
   
4. Rates will be increased more slowly, but the balance sheet will be reduced.

Europe is back on the map. That was one of the main takeaways this week from the SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) hedge fund conference in Las Vegas, where $3 trillion in assets was represented. Speaker after speaker touted European equities for their attractive valuations and as a means to diversify away from the volatile American market in light of rising U.S. geopolitical risk. France’s election of centrist Emmanuel Macron over far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen this month has especially eased investors’ fears that antiestablishment forces would challenge the integrity of the European Union (EU).

On the surface, China continues to outperform expectations. It has sustained a high rate of economic growth for longer than most other developing countries.

One of the most hotly contested debates in finance is the argument over which is better – active or passive investing. Moreover, this debate has spurred numerous academic studies that claim to identify whether passive outperforms active investing or vice versa.

Why understanding Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors is critical for credit analysis of European utilities.

The defined contribution (DC) community has been buzzing about lifetime-income products lately. It’s a topic that’s been dormant for several years, but there are good reasons for renewed interest.

Last year, the Federal Register—the U.S. government’s depository of rules and regulations—hit an all-time high of 81,640 pages. Among the industries that bear the greatest regulatory oversight is financials, which has seen a disproportionate amount of scrutiny in recent years, especially following the 9/11 attacks and subprime mortgage crisis.

K2 Advisors’ Founding Managing Director David Saunders is speaking at the prestigious SALT conference this month in Las Vegas, where he’ll discuss the liquid alternatives landscape and why he thinks now’s the time for investors to consider this asset class.

China’s National People’s Congress met in March, which seemed like a good backdrop for our annual Templeton Emerging Markets research meeting, which took place the same month in Shanghai, China.

Today’s parents are all too aware that higher education comes with a sky-high price tag, but financial aid can offer a real lifeline when it comes to mounting college costs.

Greece is back in the headlines with the resumption of bailout talks. As its economy continues to struggle, Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors, wonders if Greece and the EU can learn lessons from Iceland, which found a way to turn short-term pain into long-term gain.

Harold Evensky's newsletter to his readers.

Investors have a tendency to prefer home cooking when it comes to their stock portfolios. In the latest GMO Asset Allocation Insights, Rick Friedman writes that US-based investors are paying steep prices for domestic equities. but straying from their home market presents more attractive prices.

The oil market outlook is always a bit complicated, in part due to the impact OPEC can have on balances. For all the attention paid to changes in U.S. shale output, OPEC is capable of swinging oil balances more in a single month than U.S. shale can in a year.

When looking to help diversify a multi-asset portfolio, one of our experts presents the case for when and why an investor might consider senior loans.

Fund managers have become more bullish, but not excessively so. Cash balances at funds remains high, suggesting lingering doubts and fears. Of note is that allocations to US equities are near their lowest level in 9 years: this is when US equities typically start to outperform.

In this Q&A, Kathleen Gaffney and Henry Peabody share their outlooks for the bond market and the impact of stronger global growth, and how they seek to position the Multisector Income strategy.

Russ talks about why bond yields remain low this year, despite expectations of a rise.

Volatility is remarkably low today, but it’s not likely to stay that way. Alternatives have the potential to provide diversification and reduce risk when markets get stormy again. But what’s the best way to design an alternatives allocation?

I am in California, which means that I woke up this morning to a market that was already open—and dropping. Washington, DC is the cause once again. Growing turmoil in the nation’s capital has called into question the ability of the Trump Administration and Congress to enact their policy goals.

US inflation bounced back last month, but by less than expected. The data should support two more rate hikes in 2017, but if inflation doesn’t pick up, it may impact plans for more aggressive policy tightening down the road.