Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Mister Valuation plans for 2018: A New Year a New and Better Approach

Every year I take the holidays off in order to reflect on what I have accomplished for the year, but more importantly, to think deeply about and contemplate what I might do better in the upcoming New Year. This process has provided me with numerous inspirations over the years, and this particular year was no exception.

U.S. Policy Outlook for 2018: Expect Action on Trade and Government Spending

Although much of 2017 represented a series of fits and starts in Washington, the Trump administration and the Republican-led Congress ultimately – and against long odds – delivered on one of their biggest campaign promises: a relatively sweeping rewrite of the tax code, representing a likely boost to 2018 U.S. real GDP of 0.2%–0.3%.

Five Ways to Keep Your Muni Portfolio on Track in 2018

They are the primary objectives of municipal bond investing: Safety. Income. After-tax return. But the market doesn’t always provide the ideal environment, and the coming year looks to be no exception. How can muni investors avoid getting knocked off course in 2018? They can adhere to these five strategies.

Crypto-Crash

Bitcoin prices have corrected severely in the last 48 hours. The newsflow suggests investors have concerns about increased regulation in China and South Korea. No doubt these headlines have spooked investors, but I think there is something else at work.

Emerging Markets Through the Years

As many of you may be aware by now, I announced plans to retire after more than 30 years with Franklin Templeton Investments, effective January 31, 2018. Before I share my final, parting words on this forum, I’d like to take a look back at how emerging markets have changed since I first began investing in the space.

The 2018 Economic Playlist: Carry the Tune

Since the dawn of time music has played a pivotal role in the defining of the times and the progression made. We would like to utilize the artistic genius of these maestros to bring some context to the current pivotal point in the economy and capital markets.

Bonds’ Day of Reckoning

In the 9th year of this bull market, investors remain overweight bonds in an environment poised to drastically limit fixed income returns. It’s time to avoid bonds’ day of reckoning.

Fourth Quarter 2017: This is (not yet) the Summer of 1969

What a difference a year makes. It is hard to recall but at the turn of calendar to 2017 investors were debating whether stronger economic growth would ever return, largely because it had been so weak for much of late 2015 and 2016.

Q1 2018: Goldilocks Need Not Fear the Bear in 2018...But Her Respite Will Be More Fitful

Tina Byles Williams, CIO and CEO of FIS Group, has just published the latest Q1 2018 Market Outlook, which delves into predictions for the year ahead, from a more challenging environment for risk assets to geopolitical tensions on the horizon.

We Signed the Fx Global Code. Why Are Other Signatures Missing?

As a provider of foreign exchange services that places a premium on robustness and transparency, we’re proud to have signed the FX Global Code. We believe others should follow suit.

Stocks Definitely Overvalued - Government Shutdown Looms

I don’t make market predictions very often. Normally, I leave those decisions to the professional money managers we recommend at Halbert Wealth Management. However, some recent developments have made me very concerned that the US equity markets are at high risk for a serious downward correction just ahead.

Don't Time a Correction

The stock market is on a tear. The S&P 500 rose 19.4% in 2017 excluding dividends, and is already up over 4% in 2018. It's not a bubble or a sugar high. Our capitalized profits model, says the broad U.S. stock market, is, and was, undervalued.

Fads, Manias and Bubbles!

It is important to separate mini-manias from true bubbles. Unfortunately, the difference is mostly the amount of money chasing the folly. Millions and even billions of dollars lost (and thousands of jobs) equate to fads, while trillions of dollars lost (and rampant unemployment and recessions) are bubbles.

Dow 26K: Is This One Different?

With the Dow opening above 26,000 yesterday morning, I was all set to continue down the same path of my Dow 24K and Dow 25K posts. Alas, it wasn’t to be. Although markets are up, the Dow is below the magic number as I write this, which is certainly okay.

Raising the Stakes

Retail sales figures for December showed a relatively strong trend in 4Q17, although part of that reflects a rebound from hurricane effects in 3Q17. Core CPI inflation was a bit higher than anticipated in December, but that doesn’t mean that the low inflation trend is over.