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January 31, 2023 at
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Charting Disruption - Digital Economy
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Charting Disruption – FinTech & Blockchain
Commentaries
Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms
Debt Limit Drama
The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path…but not for the reasons that most people think.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Stagflation! Is NOW the time to buy Precious Metals?
Gold has historically performed well during stagflation, a period of high inflation and high unemployment.
A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Stagflation! Is Now the time to buy Precious Metals
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Are Inflation Targets Still On Point?
Now is not the time to consider changing inflation targets.
Things in Atlanta are Dropping Like a Stone
The Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI is a price series developed by the Atlanta Fed to capture the price of items that change the most frequently.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Small Cap Pioneers Share Their Investing Principles
As Royce Investment Partners, the pioneers of small cap investing, celebrate their 50th anniversary, Chuck Royce and Chris Clark take a look at the past 50 years to provide a take on what they have learned and how it guides their views on what is yet to come for the asset class.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
European Outlook: Less Downside Now, But Caution Still Warranted
Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.
The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Selecting the Best Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend growth stocks, I stressed the importance of having a plan.
China Reopening an Insignificant Factor for Germany So Far
Yesterday, we got our first look at December’s economic data for Europe, in the form of PMIs.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
Global Economic Outlook: Run-of-the-Mill
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
US PMIs Show the Fed Walking a Fine Line
The US Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) increased in January to 46.6 from 45 in December, representing a slowing economy but slightly less pessimistic than expected and better than the month before.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
Market Conditions Favor a Move Up in Credit Quality
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joined Bloomberg TV in Davos to discuss the outlook for credit as recession nears.
What Would an Early Biden Departure Mean for Markets?
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Investing With a Flat Yield Curve
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
From Inflation Reduction To Trade Friction
America's subsidies for domestic EVs have created new tensions with Europe.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Rearview Mirror OK, Collision Ahead
First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.
Pushing Your Luck
The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Debt Ceiling Drama
A fiscal disruption could do great damage to the U.S. economy.
Monetary Policy. Is The Fed Trying To Wean Markets Off Of It?
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
New Year Opens Window of Opportunity for Bond Investors
Investors may be able to lock in higher yield levels notes Doug Drabik, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research and Nick Goetze, Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions.
Constructing a Dividend Growth Stock Portfolio for Total Return
A common mistake that investors make regarding dividend portfolio construction is not having a well-thought-out plan.
The Lag Effect Of The Fiscal Pig & Economic Python
The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.”
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.