Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.

Certain asset classes thrive or lag as economies move through one cycle to the next. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow shares how to analyze different economic indicators and how asset classes perform through economic regime changes.

The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.

U.S. stocks typically post their best returns in the final quarter of the year. Our review of S&P 500 performance since the index’s inception in 1957 found an average Q4 uptick of 4%. (Q1 was next best at an average of 2%.)

Big tech is often cited as the primary catalyst in 2023’s stock market rally. Yet at some point, the laws of market gravity will set in, and what comes up must eventually come down. As 2023 winds down, some market experts foresee pressure ahead for big tech.

The prevailing narrative about the U.S. economy is that it’s ‘resilient’: despite rapid rate hikes, economic growth has held up and may even be accelerating.

We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.

Active management in ETFs are gaining market share in 2023, as leading managers bring their best ideas into the ETF industry.

Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related
behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.

The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.

Despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening and the regional banking crisis earlier this year, the U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient. Bond yields continue to rise, with long-term Treasuries at their highest level since October 2007.

Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.

Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.

Anyone who even casually pays attention to the financial media has likely become familiar with the current state of inflation as well as how high interest rates have risen over the past ~2 years.

China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.

2023’s market rally continues to center itself on the big tech comeback with certain themes exhibiting strength like artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. While these themes can offer traders short-term opportunities, they can also persist in the long term as growth plays.

We hope you enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.

Like any recovering reporter, I like to keep tabs on my old beats, and the marijuana ETF space never disappoints. Or, perhaps more accurately, it never stops disappointing.

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

The post-Covid era seems ripe for a Yogi-ism since economists and policymakers have been so wrong about the path of the economy and inflation. Yes, inflation is finally on a downward trend, but it has proven far stickier than the Federal Reserve and most economists predicted and remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been at the forefront of the 2023 market rally, offering investors long-term growth opportunity as well as short-term trading opportunities. For the latter, consider a pair of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Direxion Investments.

The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.

Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.

Small-cap stocks and related exchange traded funds are taking a back seat to large-cap counterparts this year. The Russell 2000 Index has shed almost 5% over the past month. However, some market observers remain constructive on smaller stocks.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9% for Q3, which would be the fastest quarterly growth rate since the earlier part of the COVID recovery.

I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.

In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.

However, the regulators made asset management news with their focus on “truth in advertising.” Despite their well-intentioned efforts, it will remain paramount for investors to do their homework and look inside the portfolio.

Active ETFs have scored more investor interest this year than smart beta ETFs—but does that mean the latter will soon be out of the game completely? David Mann, Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets at Franklin Templeton, opines.