Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Weekly Market Summary

All of the US equity indices made new all-time highs again this week. Treasuries were the biggest winner. A drawdown of at least 5-8% in SPX is odds-on before year year end, but there are a number of compelling studies suggesting that 2017 will probably continue to be a good year for US equities.

This Natural Gas Opportunity Is Years in the Making

This week I was in beautiful Argentina with a diverse team of investors and mining executives. Together we toured various natural gas and crude oil mining projects in Tierra del Fuego, Mendoza and Santa Cruz, where we had the opportunity to speak with Governor Alicia Kirchner, elder sister to former Argentinian president Néstor Kirchner.

Trending

The term “trend” now has a broader use. Trending is a term used in reference to the buildup of posts on social media. And we find ourselves in a day and age when the leader of the free world is posting using stream of consciousness—annoyingly against a department store that no longer supports his daughter’s line of clothing or worse, tweeting against judges who disagree with his policies. This is a trend we shouldn’t miss.

Tony Blair’s Democratic Insurrection

The former UK leader’s recent call for voters to rethink leaving the EU is an Emperor’s New Clothes moment. Blair is now an unpopular figure, but his voice is loud enough to carry above the crowd of flatterers assuring Prime Minister Theresa May that her naked gamble with Britain’s future is clad in democratic finery.

If You Build It, Will They Come?

Today, it seems as if there is a mysterious voice speaking to politicians all over the world, urging them to build.

The Pace of Trump’s Policy Agenda: Three Big ‘Ifs’

It’s hard to believe that U.S. President Donald Trump has only been in office for a month, given the dizzying activity in Washington. Yet our observations from before the inauguration seem to be holding true, at least so far: Governing is indeed harder than campaigning.

Money, Money Everywhere, Not an Asset to Buy

During the next two decades, an estimated 76 million baby boomers – the bulge of the Western population born between 1946 and 1964 – will begin the process of going from growing and accumulating earnings to retiring and distributing their wealth.

Credit Risk? Interest-Rate Risk? Both Are Critical

Investors often ask us which of the two primary bond market risks—interest rate or credit—they should focus on in 2017. Our answer? Both of them—and the interaction between the two.

5 Charts That Show 2017 Could Be a Banner Year for Retailers

Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that we could expect “significant” tax reform by August, including tax cuts for middle-income Americans and corporations. Like clockwork, the major stock indices rallied to all-time highs in intraday trading.

Borderline

President Trump is expected to announce a revised tax cut plan soon. In the meantime, it’s worth revisiting how the sausage gets made in Washington. By law, tax code changes must originate in the House of Representatives, and the Senate will have its say.

5 Fairly Valued MLPs: Is the Dilution Worth the Yield and How Do You Value Them?

The 5 MLPs covered in this article offer yields ranging from 5.7% to 10.7%. Additionally, each of these MLPs appears reasonably valued given their high yields and prospects for growth. However, two of these MLPs are currently in the process of merging.

Fed Minutes: ‘Fairly Soon’

With Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill for two days of testimony last week, plus Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s interview on Bloomberg TV, plus the upside surprise on U.S. CPI inflation data released on 15 February, the minutes...

Life After Beta: Are You Asking the Right Questions About Alternatives?

Investors have had mixed experiences with alternative investments lately, as the market landscape has made it hard for managers’ skills to shine. It’s time to ask some pointed questions to get the right fit.

Long-End of US Yield Curve Is Flattening, Short-End SteepeningThe spread between 30-year US treasuri

The spread between 30-year US treasuries and 10-year US treasuries has fallen to just 60 bps which is the smallest spread in about 2 years.

The Administration Now Faces the Hurdles of Reality

There has rarely been a new presidential administration in the history of the United States that has tried to get so much done in its first ten days as the current one.