Samuel Blodget was an early American merchant, amateur architect, and economist. He wrote Economica: A Statistical Manual for the United States, considered to be the first American book on economics.

Russ explains why investors should pay more attention to the stock-bond correlation coefficient and understand its impact on investment portfolios.

When PIMCO professionals gather for our annual Secular Forum to discuss the long-term global economic outlook, views on Europe invariably gravitate on two themes: anemic GDP growth and political risk.

US equity markets continue to march upward, fueling fears of a correction. History suggests that a downturn is overdue. So how should investors prepare?

Since the start of the economic recovery in mid-2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The second quarter of this year doesn't look much different. Our calculations suggest real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2, exactly the same as the consensus forecast.

The divergence this year in the performance of the emerging markets stock index and commodities prices reflects improved earnings quality and valuations of developing country stocks, not to mention big changes at the top of the index.

Last week, the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio reached the highest level in history, outside of the single week of March 24, 2000 that represented the peak of the tech bubble.

Investors who want to reduce risk and maintain a steady income might consider a barbell strategy that pairs interest rate–sensitive bonds with high-yielding credit assets. But first, it’s important to strike the right balance.

Can 529 funds be used for gap-year expenses? I recently had a parent ask me if their child’s 529 college savings account money could be used to help pay for gap-year expenses. Here’s the short answer: Maybe.

The financial sector has been getting a lot of attention recently with earnings announcements so we thought we’d weigh in on one aspect of financial stock relative performance that is making it difficult for financials to truly lead this market higher: the flattening yield curve.

At a conference in Chicago this week, following up on last week’s letter, Keep Dancing but with a Sharp Eye on the Tea Leaves, an advisor client asked me what my favorite “tea leaf” might be. When one of the greatest investors of our time, Ray Dalio, tells us to keep an eye on the exit door we should take note. But how? And when?

There’s an important—and potentially very disruptive—issue that has been largely ignored during coverage of the health care debate. The U.S. government hit its borrowing limit on March 16, 2017. Yes, that’s right—the U.S. borrowed as much as it legally can four months ago.

I am concerned that another major crisis will ensue by the end of 2018 – though it is possible that a salutary combination of events, aided by complacency, could let us muddle through for another few years. But there is another recession in our future (there is always another recession), and it’s going to be at least as bad as the last one was, in terms of the global pain it causes.

In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group dives into diverging central bank policy and weighs in on whether the European Central Bank is likely to be less accommodative—and what its timing might look like.

Today I want to discuss reports that global debt levels are at all-time highs, and what this means for your investment decisions going forward.

Are risks growing or will the bull market continue? We believe the answer to both is yes. Political bumbling, monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions have all escalated, but the bull continues to power ahead, largely unscathed by the tumult that surrounds it.

If you’re like many working Americans, you may be concerned about the state of Social Security and whether it will be there for you when you retire. Gail Buckner, CFP, our personal retirement and financial planning strategist, explores some myths about Social Security and eases some concerns about its future.

This quarter, we look at two important structural changes that appear to be underway: a normalization in US and European monetary policy and a normalization in crude oil inventories.

The Chinese economy delivered many surprises in the first half of the year, disappointing (yet again) the pundits who predicted a hard landing. Macroeconomic data published over the weekend is consistent with a healthy economy, driven by impressive wage growth and consumer spending, and supported by strong earnings growth.

The debate between active and passive management in fixed-income continues. We take a look at both sides of the coin for investors.

Typically, U.S. Presidents are wary of claiming stock market performance as a referendum on their success. Most have seemed to understand that taking credit also means accepting blame, and no one would want to make the tortured argument that the positive moves reflect well on their presidency but that the negative moves do not.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen covered no new ground in her monetary policy testimony to Congress, but that didn’t stop financial market participants from trying. While the CPI report drew a closer focus, past inflation figures don’t tell us a lot about future inflation.

Why is the U.S. housing sector diminishing when demand for housing remains robust?

American equities have been a good place to invest during the current bull market, now in its eighth year. Since the November election, the S&P 500 Index has surged close to 16 percent. 

Twenty years ago, the world was standing on the brink of the Asian Financial Crisis. Here, Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab looks at how the response of local policymakers in the subsequent two decades has impacted emerging markets in general.

“Kill the Umpire”, the fan cried to open the 1996 baseball season in Cincinnati, and 7 pitches later, the man behind the plate, John McSherry, was dead, all 320 pounds of him screaming for more oxygen to feed his struggling heart. He’d been killed by his poor health, by a billion molecules of sink-clogging cholesterol that fed on his coronary artery and sucked up his life’s blood like a vampire at midnight.

The Monroe Doctrine began as a United States policy of opposing European colonialism in 1823. It stated that further efforts by European nations to take control of any independent state in North or South America would be viewed as "the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States."

Valuations continue to reach new highs, and the market looks very expensive—by some measures, the third highest of all time after 1929 and 1999. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of slowing.

Low Treasury yields and high equity prices aren’t necessarily contradictory. Both suggest expectations of continued unexciting growth, low inflation and a steady Fed. What could go wrong?