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October 03, 2023 at
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Seeking Reliable Income in our Current Markets

October 03, 2023 at
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Overlooked and Underappreciated: Finding Yield in Securitized Debt

October 04, 2023 at
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Why Now: Seizing Opportunities in Small-Caps

October 05, 2023 at
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The Commodities Constant, Now is the Time

October 10, 2023 at
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Macro update: Navigating a unique business cycle

October 12, 2023 at
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Bonds are back: Time to move cash off the sidelines

October 12, 2023 at
02:00 PM EDT
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Free Cash Flow Yield: Quality at a Reasonable Price
October 17, 2023 at
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The Rise of Options-Based Income ETFs

October 17, 2023 at
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Right-Sizing China Exposure In Emerging Markets

October 23, 2023 at
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The Importance of Understanding Equities

October 25, 2023 at
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Longevity is Changing Retirement: Are You Prepared?

October 25, 2023 at
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How to Use Options Based ETF Strategies In a Portfolio

October 31, 2023 at
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LiveCast: The State of Equities: An Advisor’s Guide

Commentaries
Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms
BTRY for Battery
Today, I am going to bring a new technology, and a new company, to your attention – a company in control of a technology so powerful that lithium-ion batteries could soon become yesterday’s story.
These Sectors Are Standing Out For H2 2023
Energy and information technology are the two sectors most top of mind for investors, according to polling at VettaFi’s recent Equity Symposium.
CD or Treasury? Five Factors to Consider
Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.
Japanese Equities—A Force Awakens
From inflationary tailwinds for earnings growth to corporate reforms that unlock shareholder value, multiple regime shifts are underway to restore the appeal of the Japanese equity market, according to the Templeton Global Equity Group team.
Navigating Credit Markets Today – A Q&A With Mark Kiesel and Jamie Weinstein
Public credit markets offer high quality investments with attractive yields and downside resilience, while we see growing longer-term opportunities in private markets.
Professional Investors See Crypto Prices Rising
Prices of bitcoin and ethereum haven’t done much to spark enthusiasm in recent weeks. That lethargy could be belying significant appreciation potential.
A Predictable Pullback in Equity Markets
Downside equity market volatility can be unsettling, but it is important to put the pullback in perspective and identify the drivers of the negative market reaction. First and foremost, the equity market was due for a modest pullback.
Rocking with RAFI: International Evidence
With negligible incremental risk, a RAFI Global Index hypothetically outperformed a Cap-Weighted Global Index by 40 bps per annum and a Cap-Weighted Global Value Index by 2.2% from 2007 to 2022—a 16-year period covering the long value rout and its aftermath.
Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?
“Compound market returns.” During bullish markets, there is inevitably a regurgitation of this myth that was contrived to extract capital from retail investors and place it in the hands of Wall Street.
What Mattered This Week? The Real Economy
Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks.
How Muni Impact Investors Can Help Issuers Ace Their ESG Tests
The degree of success of muni impact bonds often stems from showing issuers how they’ll be graded.
2 Active ETFs to Help Shield Against Volatility
The S&P 500 has fallen almost 3% within the past month, highlighting the volatility that typically hits at the end of the summer. For volatility through the end of 2023, investors may want to consider two active ETFs from American Century.
5 Growth Stocks To Turbocharge Your Portfolio With Double Digit Earnings
Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation has 5 really interesting growth stocks for you in today’s video. These are companies that have double-digit earnings growth that can be bought at attractive valuations based on that growth.
Stress Testing the Foundations: Analyzing the Vulnerability of Us Banks To Falling Commercial Real Estate Values
The commercial real estate sector’s continued challenges could potentially impact US banks. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Shawn Lyons discusses the ongoing commercial real estate crisis and how US banks are safeguarding themselves against these issues.
Getting a Pulse on Preferred Stocks
Preferred stocks are what’s known as hybrid securities, meaning the asset class displays both equity and fixed income characteristics.
Energy Prices Are Creating Discomfort
Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.
Alternative Allocations: Navigating Through Economic Regimes
Certain asset classes thrive or lag as economies move through one cycle to the next. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow shares how to analyze different economic indicators and how asset classes perform through economic regime changes.
China’s Economic Woes Have Sparked A Gold Rush
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
Taking Stock: Q4 2023 Equity Market Outlook
U.S. stocks typically post their best returns in the final quarter of the year. Our review of S&P 500 performance since the index’s inception in 1957 found an average Q4 uptick of 4%. (Q1 was next best at an average of 2%.)
Pressure Could Be Ahead for Big Tech as 2023 Winds Down
Big tech is often cited as the primary catalyst in 2023’s stock market rally. Yet at some point, the laws of market gravity will set in, and what comes up must eventually come down. As 2023 winds down, some market experts foresee pressure ahead for big tech.
Stealth Stagnation: Why the U.S. Economy Is Not as Robust as You Think
The prevailing narrative about the U.S. economy is that it’s ‘resilient’: despite rapid rate hikes, economic growth has held up and may even be accelerating.
2023 Global Market Outlook – Q4 Update: Falling with Style
We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.
Why Investors Are Gravitating Toward Active Management In 2023
Active management in ETFs are gaining market share in 2023, as leading managers bring their best ideas into the ETF industry.
Visions of Sugar Plums and Soft Landings
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related
behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
The Market Thinks the BoJ is In Play
The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.
Bond Yields Keep Rising as Economy Remains Resilient
Despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening and the regional banking crisis earlier this year, the U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient. Bond yields continue to rise, with long-term Treasuries at their highest level since October 2007.
What’s Next for Gilts and the United Kingdom?
Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.
Cyclical Forces
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
Get Real
Anyone who even casually pays attention to the financial media has likely become familiar with the current state of inflation as well as how high interest rates have risen over the past ~2 years.
China’s Growth Is Slowing: What Does it Mean?
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
Cloud Computing and AI Will Be Persisting Themes in Tech
2023’s market rally continues to center itself on the big tech comeback with certain themes exhibiting strength like artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. While these themes can offer traders short-term opportunities, they can also persist in the long term as growth plays.
Newsletter - September 2023
We hope you enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Marijuana ETFs Rise – and Fall – on Regulatory Hopes
Like any recovering reporter, I like to keep tabs on my old beats, and the marijuana ETF space never disappoints. Or, perhaps more accurately, it never stops disappointing.
Pave Paradise
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
“Are We There Yet?” Positioning Bond Portfolios for Peak Rates
The post-Covid era seems ripe for a Yogi-ism since economists and policymakers have been so wrong about the path of the economy and inflation. Yes, inflation is finally on a downward trend, but it has proven far stickier than the Federal Reserve and most economists predicted and remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
2 Leveraged ETF Options to Consider When Targeting AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been at the forefront of the 2023 market rally, offering investors long-term growth opportunity as well as short-term trading opportunities. For the latter, consider a pair of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Direxion Investments.
Walking Out On The Auto Industry
The strike comes at an inflection point for automotive production.
Risk: Hikes May Be Over, But QT Goes On
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
Glimmers of Hope Emerge for Small-Caps
Small-cap stocks and related exchange traded funds are taking a back seat to large-cap counterparts this year. The Russell 2000 Index has shed almost 5% over the past month. However, some market observers remain constructive on smaller stocks.
Don’t Fall for the Q3 Head-Fake
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9% for Q3, which would be the fastest quarterly growth rate since the earlier part of the COVID recovery.
The Great Malaise
I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.
Beyond the Landing
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
What Powell Said and What It Means for Markets
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.
ETF Homework Remains Despite SEC Efforts
However, the regulators made asset management news with their focus on “truth in advertising.” Despite their well-intentioned efforts, it will remain paramount for investors to do their homework and look inside the portfolio.
Can Smart Beta ETFs Return to Prime Time?
Active ETFs have scored more investor interest this year than smart beta ETFs—but does that mean the latter will soon be out of the game completely? David Mann, Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets at Franklin Templeton, opines.