Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Getting More From Your Equity Allocation

How can equity investors address the triple threat of a low return environment, scarcity of alpha and the tendency to chase performance?

Keep Your Eyes on the Credit Markets, Not Washington

With political uncertainty on the rise in D.C., will market volatility spike? Russ discusses why the economy and credit markets matter more.

Keeping Your Balance as Rates Rise

Rising interest rates make bond investors nervous. But purging your portfolio of interest-rate risk can backfire—even in a rising-rate environment. There’s a better way to balance risk and return.

Reflections on Trade: Part IV

This is the final report of our four-part series on trade. This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation. We also conclude the series with market ramifications.

The Worry About Indexing is Overblown

Investors are clearly shifting away from actively managed funds to those based on index strategies. Only time will tell, but this has the look of a durable, secular change in investment management. But much of the perceived threat to market stability of indexing is overblown.

Yawn…

Expectations for U.S. growth continue to slow as distractions in Washington D.C. take away from the aggressive legislative agenda.

Equity Growth Stars: Bargains in Disguise

Investors are wary about US stock multiples. But elevated valuations of high-growth stocks may be deceiving. Growth overachievers that can deliver persistent fundamental strength often make a mockery of their short-term valuations in hindsight.

Spryng into Saving for College

As the cost of a college education continues to rise, parents (and their children) are coming up with creative ways to finance it.

Our Five Year Forecast for the S&P 500

The vast majority of businesses manage their operations according to a plan. That plan may be as simple as an entrepreneur writing down a few goals on a napkin, or as complex as a massive set of instructions covering the day to day, month to month, year by year, or decade by decade actions required to maximize profits.

Gimme Three Steps … and a Stumble?

"Three steps and a stumble" was first illustrated by Edson Gould, the legendary market technician from the 1930s through the 1970s. Ultimately the baton was passed from Gould to another legendary market analyst (and my mentor/boss for my first 13 years in this business), Marty Zweig, who incorporated the "rule" into his monetary policy indicator.

7 Come 11

On a craps table, if a 7 or 11 rolls on the first throw of the dice, you are an automatic winner if you are betting the “pass line.” But, if you roll a 2, 3, or 12 on the first roll, you lose.

Understanding Today’s Stagnation

One explanation for today’s stagnation focuses on growing angst about new technologies that could eventually replace many or most of our jobs, fueling massive economic inequality. People may be increasingly reluctant to spend today because they have vague fears about their employability tomorrow.

Can Smart Beta think (twice)?

Recent introductions of multi-factor Smart Beta products demonstrate causality among its components and an ability to replicate past future pricing. Unclear is the extent to which Smart Beta adequately discerns the directional value of securities at points of inflection to consistently outperform allocated Beta, Index-plus or Alpha portfolio strategies.

Brazilian Markets Tumble as Political Turmoil Returns

Brazil’s stocks and currency took a beating as President Temer was implicated in a corruption scandal, endangering the government’s reform agenda and fragile economic recovery.

What does the election of Emmanuel Macron mean for Europe?

Former Minister for the Economy, Emmanuel Macron, defeated the populist Euro-skeptic candidate Marine Le Pen. He did this by taking more than 60% of the French Presidential runoff vote.