Join the experts at ROBO Global for a free educational webcast and set yourself up for a deeper understanding of AI and Robotics.
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
I’m devoting this column to reminders around change management and what to think about for the human element in the midst of change.
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 21, 2025. France's CAC 40 is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 5.10%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.08% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.49%.
Spray-and-pray marketing is a good model for selling T-shirts but not so good for getting advisory clients.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
The pairing of active management and fixed income could be as important as any time in recent memory.
Apple Inc. received a pair of analyst downgrades, in the latest sign that soft iPhone sales are becoming an increasing concern for investors, as artificial intelligence fails to act as a hoped-for growth catalyst.
There’s a lot of chatter on Wall Street about artificial intelligence replacing analysts — the folks at banks and brokerages who tell investors which stocks to buy, hold or sell. The bots should be able to make those recommendations just as well as humans.
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
Everybody has an opinion about quantum computing lately. Last week Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested we were 15–30 years away from “useful” quantum computing
Today’s video on the Real Estate Sector (REITs) is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 11 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s.
2024 was characterized by megacap dominance, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and gaining roughly 25%. Megacap leadership resulted in the largest companies growing their share of the index. As of this writing, the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 make up 34% of the S&P 500.
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
MicroStrategy Inc.’s Michael Saylor may soon have almost as many common shares at his disposal to help fund the company’s Bitcoin buying spree as market behemoths Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have outstanding.
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Microsoft Corp. has plowed tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. With its stock struggling, the key question is how quickly those investments can prove to be successful.
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
Technical analysis is one of many tools we use to manage clients' wealth. While inconsistent, as with every forecasting model, it is the best means for quantifying investors' collective behaviors. Simply put, historical price and volume data provide a critical context for price levels likely to motivate buyers and sellers.
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
For all of Wall Street’s excitement about Donald Trump’s growth agenda, the biggest banks are ending the Biden years on a high note.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
BlackRock Inc. attracted an annual record of $641 billion in client cash, underlining the firm’s global reach across public and, increasingly, private assets as it integrates multibillion-dollar acquisitions and reshapes its leadership.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Advisors who refine their tech stacks and focus on actionable solutions will thrive. Likewise, wealthtech companies that prioritize delivering meaningful outcomes will rise to meet the industry’s new standards.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cruised past estimates as its equity traders delivered their best year on record.
Nvidia Corp.’s $3 trillion run-up in market value in the two years since ChatGPT helped trigger an AI frenzy is bigger than any stock rally in history in such a short time span.
Jamie Dimon, who turns 69 in March, will one day retire as chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. The candidates to succeed him have been well advertised.
Global Markets
AI Horizons: Redefining the Future of Robotics and Business Innovation
Join the experts at ROBO Global for a free educational webcast and set yourself up for a deeper understanding of AI and Robotics.
Individual Bonds Benefit From Yield Curve Shift
It is sometimes perceived that the Fed’s action changes all interest rates across the yield curve, but that needs to be put in perspective.
Value Stocks: Why You Might Be Underweight and Unaware
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Earth, Wind, and Fire
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
Make Navigating Big Changes a Team Effort
I’m devoting this column to reminders around change management and what to think about for the human element in the midst of change.
Inflation Tames, Economy Gains: A Resilient Start to 2025
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
World Markets Watchlist: January 21, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 21, 2025. France's CAC 40 is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 5.10%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.08% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.49%.
Do You Need More Leads or Better Selling?
Spray-and-pray marketing is a good model for selling T-shirts but not so good for getting advisory clients.
America's Driving Habits: November 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
Embracing Stock Market Stoicism
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
Muni Bonds: Active Management Stepping Into Spotlight
The pairing of active management and fixed income could be as important as any time in recent memory.
Apple’s Tough January Worsens as Analysts Cut on iPhone Risk
Apple Inc. received a pair of analyst downgrades, in the latest sign that soft iPhone sales are becoming an increasing concern for investors, as artificial intelligence fails to act as a hoped-for growth catalyst.
There Are Stock Gems to Mine Before the Bots Take Over
There’s a lot of chatter on Wall Street about artificial intelligence replacing analysts — the folks at banks and brokerages who tell investors which stocks to buy, hold or sell. The bots should be able to make those recommendations just as well as humans.
Restoring Fiscal Control Can’t Wait Much Longer
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
US Bonds Advance as Trump Delays on Tariffs, Oil Prices Fall
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
Trump Starts Reshaping US Energy With Focus on Oil and Gas
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Trump’s Tariff Shifts Are a Warning for Corporate America to Expect Whiplash
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Revels Winners and Losers for 2024
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: 4Q 2024
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
A Possible Storm
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
The Quantum Hype Machine
Everybody has an opinion about quantum computing lately. Last week Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested we were 15–30 years away from “useful” quantum computing
REITs and Interest Rates: Navigating the Valuation Rollercoaster
Today’s video on the Real Estate Sector (REITs) is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 11 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s.
S&P 500 Index Concentration Reaches New Highs – Strategically Navigating a Mega-Cap Dominated Market
2024 was characterized by megacap dominance, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and gaining roughly 25%. Megacap leadership resulted in the largest companies growing their share of the index. As of this writing, the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 make up 34% of the S&P 500.
Is This What the Dr. Ordered?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
Titans of Tomorrow: Quantum Computing and Robotics on the Brink of Revolution
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
The US Gas Comeback Is Real
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
Raising the SALT Cap Is Supposed to Benefit Whom, Exactly?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
BofA’s Hartnett Says Trump Trade to Shield US Stocks From Plunge
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Direct Indexing: An Easy Way to Tax-Loss Harvest All Year Round
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Reviewing Market and Economic Performance During the Biden Administration
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
The Future of AI: How NVIDIA’s Vision Is Shaping Our World
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
The Fed’s Stress Tests Are Facing a Stress Test
The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging Long-Term Rates Stoke GOP Tensions on Paying for Tax Cut
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 17, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2025 at 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.27% and the 30-year note ended at 4.84%.
BlackRock’s Amped Up ETF Taps Into Wall Street’s Stock Anxiety
BlackRock Inc. is tapping into a fast-growing corner of the options-powered ETF world with an offering aimed at Wall Street investors bracing for the S&P 500 to tread water.
MicroStrategy May Soon Rival Amazon, Alphabet in Common Shares
MicroStrategy Inc.’s Michael Saylor may soon have almost as many common shares at his disposal to help fund the company’s Bitcoin buying spree as market behemoths Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have outstanding.
Mexico Cozies Up to Trump With Crackdown on China Trade
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Microsoft’s Stock Revival Hinges on Showing Growth From AI Binge
Microsoft Corp. has plowed tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. With its stock struggling, the key question is how quickly those investments can prove to be successful.
Canada a ‘Good Place to Hide’ If US Stocks Drop, Contrarian Says
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
Technical Analysis Is Not Voodoo, It Is Invaluable Context
Technical analysis is one of many tools we use to manage clients' wealth. While inconsistent, as with every forecasting model, it is the best means for quantifying investors' collective behaviors. Simply put, historical price and volume data provide a critical context for price levels likely to motivate buyers and sellers.
Life Without ZIRP Spells RIR: Rising Interest Rates
In response to the 2008 stock market and real estate crash, the Federal Reserve stimulated the economy by reducing interest rates to (almost) zero under its zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP). It “printed money” that amazingly did not bring serious inflation, yet.
Building Permits Tick Down 0.7% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Jump 15.8% in December
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Is Your Fixed Income Manager Delivering Tax Alpha?
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
US Economic Outlook: Pre-Season Prospects
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Assessing the Potential Impact of California’s Wildfires on Municipal Bonds
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Bull vs. Bear: Using Sector ETFs to Make Bets on the New Regime
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
Median Household Purchasing Power for the 50 States and DC: 2023 Update
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in December, Lower Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Big US Bank Profits Surge as Biden Era Comes to a Close
For all of Wall Street’s excitement about Donald Trump’s growth agenda, the biggest banks are ending the Biden years on a high note.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
BlackRock Gets Record Client Cash, Revamps Leadership Team
BlackRock Inc. attracted an annual record of $641 billion in client cash, underlining the firm’s global reach across public and, increasingly, private assets as it integrates multibillion-dollar acquisitions and reshapes its leadership.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Shock-Proofing the UK Economy
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
High Rates, Tight Supply: Housing’s 2025 Balancing Act
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
2025 Wealthtech Landscape: Clarity & Consolidation for Financial Advisors
Advisors who refine their tech stacks and focus on actionable solutions will thrive. Likewise, wealthtech companies that prioritize delivering meaningful outcomes will rise to meet the industry’s new standards.
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
Thoughts from the Consumer Electronics Show
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
What's Ahead for China in 2025?
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Goldman Profit Doubles as Stock Traders Score Record Haul
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cruised past estimates as its equity traders delivered their best year on record.
Nvidia’s $3 Trillion Rally Is On Edge, Wall Street Is Unfazed
Nvidia Corp.’s $3 trillion run-up in market value in the two years since ChatGPT helped trigger an AI frenzy is bigger than any stock rally in history in such a short time span.
Jamie Dimon’s Succession Race Just Lost a Top Candidate
Jamie Dimon, who turns 69 in March, will one day retire as chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. The candidates to succeed him have been well advertised.