Strong returns in US equities over the past decade have led many investors to reduce their allocations to emerging markets equities. Yet, for investors focused on capturing growth, emerging markets may present a new frontier by which to participate in the next wave of global economic evolution. Emerging markets equities can provide exposure to transformative forces such as digitalization, productivity enhancements, shifting cultural norms, and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not just shaping the future of emerging economies; they are laying the groundwork for growth and innovation.
Join the experts at Natixis Investment Managers for an exclusive webinar on the day the survey results are released. Learn from industry leaders, and discover the key trends shaping the future of the industry.
Join the experts at ROBO Global Indexes as they unpack a comprehensive, transparent, and diversified benchmark that represents the global value chain of disruptive and emerging technology in the healthcare space.
The half-percentage point reduction at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting represents the largest non-COVID era cut by the Fed since 2008.
Many financial planning actions are linked to age milestones. Our Bill Cass highlights what key birthdays and other dates could mean for your financial plan.
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
Conference season brings about its own set of volatility catalysts. Portfolio managers and traders must keep their ears out for clues on the state of the broad economy, specific industries, and individual companies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to be highlighting what he considers to be the best investment in AI – Super Micro. Chuck has done a lot of research on Super Micro Computer.
The Fed began the process of rate cuts today, and they came out not with a whimper, but with a bang, cutting rates by 0.5% (50 basis points). Following the June meeting, Fed members forecast it would be appropriate to cut rates once – by 25 basis points (bps) – in 2024. Three months on, they have already surpassed those expectations, and forecast further cuts before the year is through.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
The Fed enacted a 0.50% interest rate cut, the first in the Fed’s historic fight against inflation that’s lasted over two years.
Most American couples say they trust their partner regarding financial matters, but many reveal they aren’t necessarily in full agreement.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in August to its lowest level since October 2016. The index fell 0.2% from the previous month to 100.2, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline.
As the back-to-school season fills your social media feed with first-day photos and ads for the latest school supplies, it is also a prime opportunity for financial advisors to reconnect with clients about their education savings plans.
Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
An ETF that just last month was dubbed the most volatile to ever hit Wall Street has already been upstaged, after the debut of a competing product that adds even more leverage.
In the long-running popular series about what’s wrong with economics, there is a new entry: Our profession is too insular. “Economists generally agree that competition is good, and that markets with only a few dominant players are inefficient,” writes the economist David Deming in the Atlantic. “We may need to take a hard look in the mirror.”
In the frothy business of selling artificial intelligence service, Salesforce Inc. has been punching above its own weight. “Salesforce?” I hear you wonder. The folks in the dull business of selling customer relationship management software?
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday began its policy easing with a bang. Much of the focus was on its decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point from a two-decade high. But the key question for the bond market is where rates will land once all is said and done. Nobody knows for sure, and Chair Jerome Powell injected enough uncertainty to ensure a choppy ride ahead.
Just as Wall Street traders come to grips with the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut, Friday’s US options expiration threatens to whipsaw the market some more.
Jerome Powell delivered exactly what traders up and down Wall Street had long hoped for: A big interest-rate cut that would justify this year’s steep rally in stocks and bonds as the era of tight monetary policy finally began to reverse.
After much anticipation, the Fed finally delivered a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. The amount had been the subject of a great deal of speculation of late, and the voting members decided on a half-point reduction to kick off this easing cycle, bringing the new Fed Funds trading range down to 4.75%–5%.
As the kiddos return to school, our fantasy football lineups are set, and the summer has ended, not only is the weather turning in the Northeast, but the inflation challenges are also cooling. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, was released at the end of August and came in at 2.5% month-over-month for July.
MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While the beach version of SoCal has had an epic, non-marine layer summer, it seems to have been enjoyed by few locals who instead violate the cardinal rule of adult life without children living at home and nevertheless travel to Europe in summer. We haven’t missed you.
Many investors understandably are wondering where Japan’s equity markets are heading. The market had a good year through June. After that it changed. The Bank of Japan's hawkishly delivered interest rate increase on July 31 preceded the release of weak U.S. economic data.
With the Fed nearing its first interest rate cut since 2020, enthusiasm for fixed income assets is increasing. Enter the ALPS Intermediate Municipal Bond ETF.
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
It doesn’t take away from one’s success to share things that are troubling in order to deal with them differently and perhaps find another way. While you want to be careful, of course, about to whom you share your secrets or your inner feelings, you don’t want to bottle them up indefinitely.
Aligning a client’s values with their financial decisions is often touted as a best practice for financial advisors. It’s time to reexamine that premise.
Marketing is an ongoing evolution – a living conversation with your ideal clients – so the opportunity to level-up is omnipresent (and part of what I love in my work).
A client recently refused to complete my risk tolerance questionnaire. After looking through our instrument, with its fairly standard hypotheticals about market movements and portfolio returns, they said, “That’s not how I think about risk.”
The size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this week won’t be a game changer for global investors, though risks from China’s slowdown continue to weigh on their minds, according to participants at a regional forum.
The Federal Reserve’s looming rate cuts are fueling a rally in the riskiest corner of the US corporate bond market, but some investors are concerned the party may not last.
The price increments at which thousands of stocks and ETFs are quoted look set for an overhaul Wednesday, when the US Securities and Exchange Commission votes on final rules to reduce them to less than 1 cent.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates this week as moderating inflation allows the central bank to roll back some of its previous rate increases. I expect that some investors will be tempted to chase stocks given the stubborn conventional wisdom that interest rates and stock prices move in opposite directions. They should reconsider.
Munis cemented their best “summer” since 2010 after another month of strong performance. Some near-term caution is warranted given that September has been historically challenging. Robust issuance ahead of the election should provide opportunities in the primary market.
It might just be the most audacious bid on Wall Street to exploit newfangled AI tools to mimic the legends of finance.
The $8 trillion mortgage market can trigger big swings across fixed income when the Federal Reserve shifts interest rates, but investors say this time is different.
Vanguard, one of the world’s biggest asset managers, is buying the dollar this week on the view that market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are overdone.
With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.
Deal activity in private equity has slowed significantly from 2021 due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty.
The last five years have bombarded investors with a seemingly never-ending array of challenges. Yet despite all these obstacles the S&P 500 is up almost 90% as of this writing.
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing.
The markets closed quite strong last week and were approaching all-time highs again for the S&P 500. The most recent Presidential debate shifted the odds markets, as Harris became a 55-45 favorite on the betting site PredictIt and a very slight favorite on Polymarket. It is positive for the risk markets which did not pull back with Harris gaining strength.
The yield curve measures the difference between short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term Treasury yields.
Active fixed income ETFs have taken a big leap this year per new research about active ETFs that may draw new investor eyes.
Nominal retail sales in August were up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.13% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.14% MoM and down 0.45% YoY.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed headline sales were up 0.1% last month. The latest reading was higher than the expected -0.2% monthly growth in consumer spending.
The term “Complexity Curve” refers to the growing intricacies that come with managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals. As their assets grow, so do the complexities of their financial portfolios. This includes everything from business ownership and large qualified plans to complex estate planning issues.
For most advisors, using persuasion to get prospects to see things their way is a deeply held belief. It was taught by the old guard “sales gurus” for many years.
Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.
When buying or selling an RIA practice, one of the most important documents you'll encounter is the Asset Purchase Agreement (APA). This agreement is like the foundation of the deal, spelling out exactly what is being bought or sold, how much will be paid, and the responsibilities of both parties.
Alphabet Inc. shares have been struggling for the past two months amid mounting regulatory uncertainty. For some bulls, that’s a buying opportunity.
The new thing in electricity is datacenters. The new new thing is … coal?
Microsoft Corp. raised its quarterly dividend 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching the size of a repurchase plan three years ago.
Investors piled money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds on Friday amid optimism that developing-nation debt will get a boost from a highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut this week.
There’s a puzzle developing in the housing market — mortgage rates have fallen rapidly to their lowest level since early 2023, but would-be homebuyers don’t seem to care. It’s possible this is just a timing issue with rates falling during the slow season for transactions and election jitters giving buyers additional reason to hold off.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Market performance may depend on whether the pace of cuts is fast or slow.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), and markets, overreacted to the slightly higher inflation seen during the first quarter of the year. After that scare, the Fed went from expecting three cuts in the federal funds rate in 2024 to just one cut during its June dot plot release.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why the next bout of market volatility may last a bit longer than previous downturns and how to best position your portfolio against this backdrop.
The August consumer price index report showed that U.S. inflation slowed to 2.5%
How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?
You don’t have to read or listen for long these days before you hear a politician, pundit, or politically-inclined person say: “Government spending causes inflation.”
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it.
Market participants don’t need to pick names in search of chip stock value, because the ETF SMH holds chip equities sporting favorable valuations.
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for an educational webcast on how an active approach to hedged equity can mitigate risk in volatile times and capture growth opportunites.
Despite these positive developments, many people continue to feel uneasy about the economy.
I have looked at market data on inflation expectations, Fed Funds futures, and other factors that influence interest rates. Today, I add an unorthodox factor to the list: cash cows.
The money manager who hasn’t cracked open the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Portfolio Management, or Financial Analysts Journal for the past few years probably hasn’t lost any steps.
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
Bond traders once again see Federal Reserve policymakers as more likely to cut interest rates by a half point than a quarter point at their meeting this week.
Investors are adding to their fixed income exposure as imminent interest rate cuts create opportunities, according to Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
BlackRock Inc. strategists turned underweight short-dated US Treasuries from overweight, saying the extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts the market is betting on is unlikely to pan out.
Perhaps it’s unsurprising that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are saying nothing about the country’s biggest economic-policy challenge – namely, how to rein in public borrowing. With an election to win, they’d rather emphasize lower taxes and/or higher public spending.
The US Federal Reserve faces a crucial decision at its policy-making meeting this week: Ease off slightly on monetary restraint with a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut, or go for a rare 50-basis-point cut to fend off a recession.
Consumer staples are one of the sleepiest sectors of the US stock market. Investors buy them for their low volatility and generous dividends, not exhilarating upside potential. But lately, toothpaste, bleach and certain big-box food retailers seem to be acting like the new semiconductors.
For a brief moment, when volatility picked up in early August and again in early September, we saw some appetite reappear for low volatility ETFs
With tax-loss harvesting season on the horizon, investors may want to consider a pair of tax-conscious, active fixed income ETFs.
The S&P 500 index is a critical benchmark for the U.S. equity market, and its performance often dictates investor sentiment and decision-making. Between November 1, 2022, and September 6, 2024, the S&P 500 experienced a significant rally but not without volatility. Currently, investors have very mixed views about where markets are heading next as concerns of a recession linger or what changes to monetary policy will cause.
In my cycles book I’m reviewing the forecasts of Neil Howe, Peter Turchin, George Friedman, and Ray Dalio. For different historical reasons and patterns, all see a crisis culminating at the end of this decade. Some readers have legitimately pushed back, saying no one knows the future.
As we move into the final stretch of 2024, many investors may be asking themselves: Is it time to give airline stocks another look? According to a new report from Bank of America (BofA), the answer might very well be yes
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
Due to balance sheet concerns, the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has been a significant headwind for the relative performance of U.S. small-cap equities.
What is interesting about the growth of hedged equity is that most of the assets are held in passively managed structures.
China’s bond traders defied signs of intervention to push sovereign yields to a record low, setting the stage for a showdown with authorities seeking to tame the blistering debt rally.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach growth stock investing. As Mr. Valuation, Chuck is a proponent of growth at a reasonable price, often referred to as GARP investing, and Professor Mauck is going to provide some insights into what that actually means.
Global Markets
LiveCast: Navigating emerging markets: Seizing growth opportunities
Strong returns in US equities over the past decade have led many investors to reduce their allocations to emerging markets equities. Yet, for investors focused on capturing growth, emerging markets may present a new frontier by which to participate in the next wave of global economic evolution. Emerging markets equities can provide exposure to transformative forces such as digitalization, productivity enhancements, shifting cultural norms, and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not just shaping the future of emerging economies; they are laying the groundwork for growth and innovation.
Navigating market challenges: Insights from the Global Survey of FAs
Join the experts at Natixis Investment Managers for an exclusive webinar on the day the survey results are released. Learn from industry leaders, and discover the key trends shaping the future of the industry.
How Innovations in Healthcare Could Benefit Investors
Join the experts at ROBO Global Indexes as they unpack a comprehensive, transparent, and diversified benchmark that represents the global value chain of disruptive and emerging technology in the healthcare space.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates for First Time in Four Years
The half-percentage point reduction at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting represents the largest non-COVID era cut by the Fed since 2008.
Age Milestones Can Trigger Financial Planning Actions
Many financial planning actions are linked to age milestones. Our Bill Cass highlights what key birthdays and other dates could mean for your financial plan.
Starting With a Bang: Fed Cuts Policy Rate
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
Financials-Sector Fallout: Macro Clues from Conferences and Interim Data
Conference season brings about its own set of volatility catalysts. Portfolio managers and traders must keep their ears out for clues on the state of the broad economy, specific industries, and individual companies.
Super Micro Computer – Is This The Best Investment In AI?
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to be highlighting what he considers to be the best investment in AI – Super Micro. Chuck has done a lot of research on Super Micro Computer.
And We're Off!
The Fed began the process of rate cuts today, and they came out not with a whimper, but with a bang, cutting rates by 0.5% (50 basis points). Following the June meeting, Fed members forecast it would be appropriate to cut rates once – by 25 basis points (bps) – in 2024. Three months on, they have already surpassed those expectations, and forecast further cuts before the year is through.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: August 2024
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
Fed Takes Aggressive Rate Cut Approach: Now What?
The Fed enacted a 0.50% interest rate cut, the first in the Fed’s historic fight against inflation that’s lasted over two years.
Hot-Button Financial Questions Couples Face in Retirement & Beyond
Most American couples say they trust their partner regarding financial matters, but many reveal they aren’t necessarily in full agreement.
CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall, Triggering Recession Signal
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in August to its lowest level since October 2016. The index fell 0.2% from the previous month to 100.2, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline.
Back to School, Back to Saving!
As the back-to-school season fills your social media feed with first-day photos and ads for the latest school supplies, it is also a prime opportunity for financial advisors to reconnect with clients about their education savings plans.
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by a Half-Point
Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
ETF-Volatility Race Heats Up on 200% Leveraged MicroStrategy Bet
An ETF that just last month was dubbed the most volatile to ever hit Wall Street has already been upstaged, after the debut of a competing product that adds even more leverage.
Exciting Economics Is Often Misguided Economics
In the long-running popular series about what’s wrong with economics, there is a new entry: Our profession is too insular. “Economists generally agree that competition is good, and that markets with only a few dominant players are inefficient,” writes the economist David Deming in the Atlantic. “We may need to take a hard look in the mirror.”
Salesforce Is a Dark Horse in the AI Race
In the frothy business of selling artificial intelligence service, Salesforce Inc. has been punching above its own weight. “Salesforce?” I hear you wonder. The folks in the dull business of selling customer relationship management software?
The Fed’s Uncertain Destination Troubles the Bond Market
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday began its policy easing with a bang. Much of the focus was on its decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point from a two-decade high. But the key question for the bond market is where rates will land once all is said and done. Nobody knows for sure, and Chair Jerome Powell injected enough uncertainty to ensure a choppy ride ahead.
Wall Street’s $5.1 Trillion Triple-Witching Is Next Market Test
Just as Wall Street traders come to grips with the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut, Friday’s US options expiration threatens to whipsaw the market some more.
Wall Street’s New Era Off to Rocky Start Despite Big Fed Cut
Jerome Powell delivered exactly what traders up and down Wall Street had long hoped for: A big interest-rate cut that would justify this year’s steep rally in stocks and bonds as the era of tight monetary policy finally began to reverse.
Fed Watch: “Cut” to the Chase
After much anticipation, the Fed finally delivered a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. The amount had been the subject of a great deal of speculation of late, and the voting members decided on a half-point reduction to kick off this easing cycle, bringing the new Fed Funds trading range down to 4.75%–5%.
Be Careful What You Wish For
As the kiddos return to school, our fantasy football lineups are set, and the summer has ended, not only is the weather turning in the Northeast, but the inflation challenges are also cooling. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, was released at the end of August and came in at 2.5% month-over-month for July.
MSCI Index Rebalances: China’s Weight Continues Decline
MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.
Fixed Income Is a Long-Term Strategy
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Summer Cocktails, White Sneakers, Nvidia: It’s Back to Schooling
While the beach version of SoCal has had an epic, non-marine layer summer, it seems to have been enjoyed by few locals who instead violate the cardinal rule of adult life without children living at home and nevertheless travel to Europe in summer. We haven’t missed you.
The Fundamentals of Japan
Many investors understandably are wondering where Japan’s equity markets are heading. The market had a good year through June. After that it changed. The Bank of Japan's hawkishly delivered interest rate increase on July 31 preceded the release of weak U.S. economic data.
Muni Bond Enthusiasm Rises Ahead of Fed Rate Cuts
With the Fed nearing its first interest rate cut since 2020, enthusiasm for fixed income assets is increasing. Enter the ALPS Intermediate Municipal Bond ETF.
Basin Basics: Appalachia Offers More Than Gas
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
The Secret Lives of Advisors
It doesn’t take away from one’s success to share things that are troubling in order to deal with them differently and perhaps find another way. While you want to be careful, of course, about to whom you share your secrets or your inner feelings, you don’t want to bottle them up indefinitely.
Aligning Values With Money Isn’t Your Job
Aligning a client’s values with their financial decisions is often touted as a best practice for financial advisors. It’s time to reexamine that premise.
How 'Personal' Should Your Firm's LinkedIn Page Be?
Marketing is an ongoing evolution – a living conversation with your ideal clients – so the opportunity to level-up is omnipresent (and part of what I love in my work).
Risk Tolerance Questionnaires: Useful or Pointless?
A client recently refused to complete my risk tolerance questionnaire. After looking through our instrument, with its fairly standard hypotheticals about market movements and portfolio returns, they said, “That’s not how I think about risk.”
Dalio Downplays Next Fed Move as Investors Flag China Risks
The size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this week won’t be a game changer for global investors, though risks from China’s slowdown continue to weigh on their minds, according to participants at a regional forum.
Junk Bond Investors Are Getting Ahead of ‘Rate Cutting Party’
The Federal Reserve’s looming rate cuts are fueling a rally in the riskiest corner of the US corporate bond market, but some investors are concerned the party may not last.
SEC Poised to Vote on Overhaul of Stock Pricing, Exchange Fees
The price increments at which thousands of stocks and ETFs are quoted look set for an overhaul Wednesday, when the US Securities and Exchange Commission votes on final rules to reduce them to less than 1 cent.
The Fed Is a Poor Guide for Stock Investors
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates this week as moderating inflation allows the central bank to roll back some of its previous rate increases. I expect that some investors will be tempted to chase stocks given the stubborn conventional wisdom that interest rates and stock prices move in opposite directions. They should reconsider.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Munis cemented their best “summer” since 2010 after another month of strong performance. Some near-term caution is warranted given that September has been historically challenging. Robust issuance ahead of the election should provide opportunities in the primary market.
New Chatbot ETF Promises to Mimic Warren Buffett, David Tepper
It might just be the most audacious bid on Wall Street to exploit newfangled AI tools to mimic the legends of finance.
Mortgage Market’s Historical Sway Dulled as Fed Gears Up to Ease
The $8 trillion mortgage market can trigger big swings across fixed income when the Federal Reserve shifts interest rates, but investors say this time is different.
Vanguard Buys Dollars Saying Fed Rate-Cut Bets Gone Too Far
Vanguard, one of the world’s biggest asset managers, is buying the dollar this week on the view that market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are overdone.
Seizing the Opportunity in Emerging Markets
With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.
4 Opportunities in Private Equity Investing Today
Deal activity in private equity has slowed significantly from 2021 due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Hedged Equity: For the Best of Times, For the Worst of Times
The last five years have bombarded investors with a seemingly never-ending array of challenges. Yet despite all these obstacles the S&P 500 is up almost 90% as of this writing.
Fade the Election
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Panic Is Not a Strategy—Nor Is Greed
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
Labor Market Impact On The Stock Market
The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing.
Market Strength as Rate Cuts Loom
The markets closed quite strong last week and were approaching all-time highs again for the S&P 500. The most recent Presidential debate shifted the odds markets, as Harris became a 55-45 favorite on the betting site PredictIt and a very slight favorite on Polymarket. It is positive for the risk markets which did not pull back with Harris gaining strength.
Getting Back to Normal: The Yield Curve
The yield curve measures the difference between short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term Treasury yields.
Active Fixed Income ETFs Have Seen Flows Jump in 2024
Active fixed income ETFs have taken a big leap this year per new research about active ETFs that may draw new investor eyes.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Down 0.1% in August
Nominal retail sales in August were up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.13% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.14% MoM and down 0.45% YoY.
Retail Sales Up Only 0.1% in August, But Better Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed headline sales were up 0.1% last month. The latest reading was higher than the expected -0.2% monthly growth in consumer spending.
The Complexity Curve and Excelling with High-Net-Worth Clients
The term “Complexity Curve” refers to the growing intricacies that come with managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals. As their assets grow, so do the complexities of their financial portfolios. This includes everything from business ownership and large qualified plans to complex estate planning issues.
Stop Using Persuasion to Make the Sale!
For most advisors, using persuasion to get prospects to see things their way is a deeply held belief. It was taught by the old guard “sales gurus” for many years.
Retirement Beyond the Numbers
Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.
Why It’s Important to Understand the Asset Purchase Agreement When Buying or Selling a Practice
When buying or selling an RIA practice, one of the most important documents you'll encounter is the Asset Purchase Agreement (APA). This agreement is like the foundation of the deal, spelling out exactly what is being bought or sold, how much will be paid, and the responsibilities of both parties.
Alphabet’s Antitrust Woes Have Made It a Cheap Buy for Bulls
Alphabet Inc. shares have been struggling for the past two months amid mounting regulatory uncertainty. For some bulls, that’s a buying opportunity.
AI Heralds a New Deal for Old Coal Plants
The new thing in electricity is datacenters. The new new thing is … coal?
Microsoft Plans New $60 Billion Buyback, Raises Dividend 10%
Microsoft Corp. raised its quarterly dividend 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching the size of a repurchase plan three years ago.
Risk Traders Buy Emerging-Market Bond ETFs Ahead of Fed’s Cut
Investors piled money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds on Friday amid optimism that developing-nation debt will get a boost from a highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut this week.
Mortgage Rates Puzzle Is a Worry for Housing and the Fed
There’s a puzzle developing in the housing market — mortgage rates have fallen rapidly to their lowest level since early 2023, but would-be homebuyers don’t seem to care. It’s possible this is just a timing issue with rates falling during the slow season for transactions and election jitters giving buyers additional reason to hold off.
Schwab Market Perspective: Fed Watch
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Market performance may depend on whether the pace of cuts is fast or slow.
The Federal Reserve: Between a rock and a hard (market) place
The Federal Reserve (Fed), and markets, overreacted to the slightly higher inflation seen during the first quarter of the year. After that scare, the Fed went from expecting three cuts in the federal funds rate in 2024 to just one cut during its June dot plot release.
Why the Next Spike in Market Volatility May Last
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why the next bout of market volatility may last a bit longer than previous downturns and how to best position your portfolio against this backdrop.
What Does the Latest U.S. Inflation Report Reveal?
The August consumer price index report showed that U.S. inflation slowed to 2.5%
Fed Preview: Be Quick, but Don’t Hurry
How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?
It's Money, Not Spending, that Causes Inflation
You don’t have to read or listen for long these days before you hear a politician, pundit, or politically-inclined person say: “Government spending causes inflation.”
What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it.
Some Bargains Available in a Surprising ETF
Market participants don’t need to pick names in search of chip stock value, because the ETF SMH holds chip equities sporting favorable valuations.
Hedged Equity: For the Best of Times, for the Worst of Times
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for an educational webcast on how an active approach to hedged equity can mitigate risk in volatile times and capture growth opportunites.
Is Inflation Still a Threat? The Surprising Truth Behind the Numbers
Despite these positive developments, many people continue to feel uneasy about the economy.
Cash Cow Clues: Can Dividend Yields Forecast Interest Rates?
I have looked at market data on inflation expectations, Fed Funds futures, and other factors that influence interest rates. Today, I add an unorthodox factor to the list: cash cows.
Who Needs Academic Finance Literature?
The money manager who hasn’t cracked open the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Portfolio Management, or Financial Analysts Journal for the past few years probably hasn’t lost any steps.
Shifts in the Fed’s Dot Plot Should Set the Market’s Tone
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
Traders See Half-Point Fed Rate Cut Likelier Than Quarter-Point
Bond traders once again see Federal Reserve policymakers as more likely to cut interest rates by a half point than a quarter point at their meeting this week.
Pimco CEO Roman Says Investors Are Piling into Fixed Income
Investors are adding to their fixed income exposure as imminent interest rate cuts create opportunities, according to Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
BlackRock Warns on Bonds, Saying Fed Rate Bets Are Overdone
BlackRock Inc. strategists turned underweight short-dated US Treasuries from overweight, saying the extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts the market is betting on is unlikely to pan out.
The US Is Locked in a State of Debt Denial
Perhaps it’s unsurprising that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are saying nothing about the country’s biggest economic-policy challenge – namely, how to rein in public borrowing. With an election to win, they’d rather emphasize lower taxes and/or higher public spending.
The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will.
The US Federal Reserve faces a crucial decision at its policy-making meeting this week: Ease off slightly on monetary restraint with a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut, or go for a rare 50-basis-point cut to fend off a recession.
Walmart Has Seized the Baton From Nvidia. What?
Consumer staples are one of the sleepiest sectors of the US stock market. Investors buy them for their low volatility and generous dividends, not exhilarating upside potential. But lately, toothpaste, bleach and certain big-box food retailers seem to be acting like the new semiconductors.
What VIX Tells Us About Opportunity in Low Vol ETFs
For a brief moment, when volatility picked up in early August and again in early September, we saw some appetite reappear for low volatility ETFs
Tax-Loss Harvesting? These Fixed Income ETFs Deserve a Look
With tax-loss harvesting season on the horizon, investors may want to consider a pair of tax-conscious, active fixed income ETFs.
S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis
The S&P 500 index is a critical benchmark for the U.S. equity market, and its performance often dictates investor sentiment and decision-making. Between November 1, 2022, and September 6, 2024, the S&P 500 experienced a significant rally but not without volatility. Currently, investors have very mixed views about where markets are heading next as concerns of a recession linger or what changes to monetary policy will cause.
The Revolt of the Public
In my cycles book I’m reviewing the forecasts of Neil Howe, Peter Turchin, George Friedman, and Ray Dalio. For different historical reasons and patterns, all see a crisis culminating at the end of this decade. Some readers have legitimately pushed back, saying no one knows the future.
It’s Time to Reconsider Airline Stocks. Here Are Four Reasons Why.
As we move into the final stretch of 2024, many investors may be asking themselves: Is it time to give airline stocks another look? According to a new report from Bank of America (BofA), the answer might very well be yes
Municipal Bonds: Fiscal 2025 State Outlook
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
Positioning for a Small-Cap Market Rotation in Our Model Portfolios
Due to balance sheet concerns, the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has been a significant headwind for the relative performance of U.S. small-cap equities.
The Case for Active Management of Hedged Equity
What is interesting about the growth of hedged equity is that most of the assets are held in passively managed structures.
China Bond Yields Sink to Record Low With Intervention in Focus
China’s bond traders defied signs of intervention to push sovereign yields to a record low, setting the stage for a showdown with authorities seeking to tame the blistering debt rally.
Growth At A Reasonable Price – The Risks And Rewards
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach growth stock investing. As Mr. Valuation, Chuck is a proponent of growth at a reasonable price, often referred to as GARP investing, and Professor Mauck is going to provide some insights into what that actually means.