Discover the trends shaping the future of robotics and AI, gain valuable market intelligence, and unlock opportunities for growth in our upcoming webinar. Join our research team as they dive into the dynamic world of disruptive tech, discussing the quarterly performance of ROBO, HTEC & THNQ, and the latest developments in automation and AI.
In 2022, both fixed income and equities stumbled, creating greater focus on alternatives. As market headwinds continue to remain strong, investors are increasingly turning to alternative strategies to increase diversification, address higher rates, and mitigate risk. Join the experts at Swan Global and VettaFi for a webcast that digs into where alternatives can fit in a portfolio.
Topics will include:
Join the experts at State Street Global Advisors, Confluence Investment Management, Riverfront Investment Group, and VettaFi for a discussion about the state of the markets.
Anne Walsh, CIO for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, discusses drivers of returns going forward. She also offers advice to young women looking to make a career in asset management.
Global bonds are slumping after two shock interest-rate hikes this week served traders a reality check that central banks are far from done fighting inflation.
Various forces have contributed to this collapse, including advertisers fleeing from extreme content; brands and celebrities quitting the site; and the risible failure of the Twitter Blue subscription, which transformed the “coveted” blue check into a mark of comic derision.
Investors are piling cash into the largest junk bond exchange-traded fund at the quickest pace in nearly three years amid a broad rebound in risk assets.
Let's take a close look at May's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.6% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.4% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Today BloombergNEF released its seventh annual Electric Vehicle Outlook. The report offers reams of new data and projections around what’s become a familiar story: EV sales are growing at double digits each year and are now the only growth area in the global passenger vehicle market.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will likely lead to tighter credit conditions as banks pull back from lending. Private credit managers are poised to fill the void that banks have left and can negotiate favorable terms, according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow.
Several key economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy.
Two weeks ago, we noted that Congress would soon raise the debt ceiling, but that this could set up unexpected consequences for investors. Now that the debt ceiling is raised until 2025, the US Treasury is free to fund the government’s liabilities since January.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
Earlier this month, WealthManagement.com announced the finalists for its 2023 Industry Awards (the “Wealthies”). VettaFi is one of two firms to be recognized for outstanding achievement in research innovation. The Wealthies was the first award program of its kind to honor companies, organizations, and individuals supporting financial advisor success.
Asset-Map is a tool for financial professionals to visually map and provide feedback on their client’s financial picture. With better insights into a client’s financial inventory, advisors can help clients identify risks, opportunities and track progress to their financial goals. Adam Holt joins me to discuss Asset-Map and his vision for the future of technology-enabled advice delivery.
In this provocative discussion, VettaFi Financial Futurist Dave Nadig sits down with Zeno Mercer, Senior Research Analyst at ROBO Global, and Adam Butler, CIO of Resolve Asset Management to delve into two intertwined.
“Owning bonds is better than white-knuckling it in stocks in an economy that is going into a recession,” Jeffrey Gundlach said.
The once-hot Wall Street trades of 2023 are all falling apart, in a fresh blow to market pros blindsided again and again ever since the pandemic broke out.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In April, the trade deficit expanded by 23% to $74.60B. This is the largest gap the trade balance has seen in the last 6 months. The latest reading was smaller than the -$75.20B forecast.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Top Silver Mining CEO: "On the demand side, it’s pretty phenomenal…"
We see the market’s focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. We prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.
The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.
Wall Street has been caught by surprise by a rally in local emerging-market debt, an asset class that’s been largely abandoned by foreign investors after a decade of underperformance.
For the majority of PayPal Holdings Inc. analysts, the only way is up. The trouble is, the stock keeps going down.
Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.
Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
Tired of the AI hype yet? It’s OK, I understand. I’m tired of it too. The pace of human progress — and our insatiable need to be entertained by the shock of the new — seems to be forevermore in the “hockey stick” part of the growth curve.
At of the start of this year, Rick Pitcairn took on a new position as the chief global strategist at Pitcairn, a 100-year-old multi-family office with $7bn in client assets. In this position, he is focusing on macro-economic trends and is searching for new global initiatives that will add to the firm’s growth.
Rick recently journeyed to India where he met with some of the wealthiest local families to discuss multi-generational wealth transfer. He saw that people all around the world want the same things, including economic security and a safe environment to raise their children. But the investing and business environments differ significantly. Rick knows that U.S. investors have a home bias, but he saw substantial economic growth is happening outside our borders. Rick is here to discuss if an international allocation appropriate or too risky.
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
History suggests that a soft landing might be difficult, as the U.S. has entered a recession following the last five periods when inflation peaked above 5%.
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its May services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.3, which was below the forecast of 51.8. The latest reading marks the fifth consecutive month the index has been expansion territory.
The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year.
For over a year, bond traders have been whipsawed by uncertainty about how high the Federal Reserve will push interest rates.
Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a “soft landing” scenario. Such is where the economy slows substantially but avoids a deeper contraction.
A robust implementation strategy and real-world implementation capabilities are both necessary in order to achieve your portfolio’s preferred position.
The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.
“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.
What's next for global growth? Our Macro Strategies team shares a regional breakdown of their growth expectations across the globe.
Structural changes in the world’s energy systems represent significant investment potential across an array of sectors. Analysts on our equity research team offer insights into the impact and opportunities.
New findings from EBRI’s recently released 2023 Retirement Confidence Survey reveal what’s top of mind for American workers and retirees. Below, we look at two key findings – alongside ways the industry is responding.
The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country on track for a Biden-Trump rematch next year – a contest that Trump just might win – the truce is likely to be short-lived.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. May saw a 339,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The forecast was for 180,000 jobs gained.
The moving average for the light vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Almost 45 years later, it is down 40.5% from that peak.
The employment report for May showed a 339,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The addition is well above expectations of 180,000 new obs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
When portfolio manager David Lipner said he was quitting billionaire Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management to join a rival, the hedge fund countered with an unusual proposal: A one-year paid sabbatical and an incentive upon return if Lipner stayed.
A core concern for investors contemplating taking advantage of the incredible cheapness of deep value stocks today is the potential for a near-term recession.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.
Choppiness in the equity market continues as investors look to see a debt limit deal approved.
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
Thoughts on the current US debt challenge and the long-term implications for markets and the economy from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
After a continued rally in April, markets largely pulled back in May. Exceptions here were the Nasdaq, which rose, and the S&P 500, which was essentially flat.
Inflation is one way the U.K. is paying for leaving Europe.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized how we live and work, and it is now poised to transform the investing world. As technology continues to evolve and mature, investors are increasingly turning to AI-focused ETFs to gain exposure to this dynamic and rapidly growing sector.
The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed to thread the needle at their recent summit in Hiroshima.
The private equity (PE) industry has been all the rage over the past 10 years.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.41, unchanged from April.
Brex, a credit-card startup, has seen a surge in usage of its products following this year’s regional banking turmoil.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 46.9 in May. The lates figure marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The May reading was just below the forecast of 47.0.
The May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ dropped for the first time in five months to 48.4. The latest figure moves the index back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month stint in expansion territory. The May reading is slightly below the forecast of 48.5.
Humanity is sitting on a time bomb.
The US Federal Reserve is adrift, and it has only itself to blame. Regardless of whether its policy-setting committee announces another interest-rate hike in June, its top priority now should be to address the structural weaknesses that led it astray in the first place.
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
VettaFi’s Financial Futurist Dave Nadig sat down with ROBO Global’s senior research analyst Zeno Mercer for a wide-ranging discussion about AI. Together, the two explored industries that could benefit from AI, those facing existential threats, and how the smartest AI analysts see it.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are the next step in financial innovation. The government will do what it deems in its best interests. CBDCs will replace physical currency; it's just a question of when.
A debt ceiling deal is within sight.
The stresses in the CRE market do not appear to pose a systemic threat to the global banking system.
Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.
A range-bound VIX between 20-35 has common markers and dynamics which signal a “crisis gateway” that deserves a defensive posture.
Treasury bills maturing in the first half of June rallied as trading resumed following the Memorial Day holiday after a deal to lift the debt ceiling eased concern over the prospect of a calamitous US default.
When Jamie Dimon takes center stage at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s China summit Wednesday, he’ll be confronting a business landscape that looks vastly different from his visit four years ago.
Nvidia Corp. is poised to become the world’s first chipmaker with a $1 trillion market capitalization, joining an exclusive club of American companies with a valuation that high.
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
The financial markets are giving off mixed signals of late, and credit investors may wonder whether to be downbeat or optimistic.
Like planting seeds, sometimes new investment vehicles take time to take root. David Mann, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global ETF Product and Capital Markets, draws parallels between gardening and developing and growing new ETFs.
We've described the past several years' stock market as a seesaw in which the "market" was the fulcrum of the seesaw. On one side of the seesaw sit the highly speculative growth sectors and on the other side, sit virtually everything else in the global equity markets.
Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
Exchange-traded funds tracking companies that are linked to artificial intelligence may see their assets grow three-fold to $35 billion by 2030, a report by Bloomberg Intelligence shows.
According to the company’s investor relations page on this REIT, Simon Property Trust (SPG) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company.
Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.
Global Markets
ROBO Global Indexes Q2 In Review: Index Updates & The Latest Happenings in Disruptive Tech
Discover the trends shaping the future of robotics and AI, gain valuable market intelligence, and unlock opportunities for growth in our upcoming webinar. Join our research team as they dive into the dynamic world of disruptive tech, discussing the quarterly performance of ROBO, HTEC & THNQ, and the latest developments in automation and AI.
Know Your Alternatives: A User’s Guide for Implementing Alternative Strategies
In 2022, both fixed income and equities stumbled, creating greater focus on alternatives. As market headwinds continue to remain strong, investors are increasingly turning to alternative strategies to increase diversification, address higher rates, and mitigate risk. Join the experts at Swan Global and VettaFi for a webcast that digs into where alternatives can fit in a portfolio.
Topics will include:
Balancing Recession and Recovery
Join the experts at State Street Global Advisors, Confluence Investment Management, Riverfront Investment Group, and VettaFi for a discussion about the state of the markets.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 36: "It's a bond picker's market."
Anne Walsh, CIO for Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, discusses drivers of returns going forward. She also offers advice to young women looking to make a career in asset management.
Bonds Everywhere Suffer as Rate-Hike Fears Swamp Traders
Global bonds are slumping after two shock interest-rate hikes this week served traders a reality check that central banks are far from done fighting inflation.
Musk Should End Twitter’s Misery and Bring on Brand ‘X’
Various forces have contributed to this collapse, including advertisers fleeing from extreme content; brands and celebrities quitting the site; and the risible failure of the Twitter Blue subscription, which transformed the “coveted” blue check into a mark of comic derision.
Biggest Junk-Bond ETF Attracts Most Cash Since 2020 as Rally Builds
Investors are piling cash into the largest junk bond exchange-traded fund at the quickest pace in nearly three years amid a broad rebound in risk assets.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a close look at May's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.6% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.4% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Four Takeaways on the Future of the Global EV Market
Today BloombergNEF released its seventh annual Electric Vehicle Outlook. The report offers reams of new data and projections around what’s become a familiar story: EV sales are growing at double digits each year and are now the only growth area in the global passenger vehicle market.
Alts Angle: Disruption Creates Opportunities
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will likely lead to tighter credit conditions as banks pull back from lending. Private credit managers are poised to fill the void that banks have left and can negotiate favorable terms, according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow.
It’s The Economy That Matters: The Employment Situation
Several key economic indicators are released every week to help provide insight into the overall health of the U.S. economy.
International Demand Explodes for Short-Term US Treasuries
Two weeks ago, we noted that Congress would soon raise the debt ceiling, but that this could set up unexpected consequences for investors. Now that the debt ceiling is raised until 2025, the US Treasury is free to fund the government’s liabilities since January.
Big U.S. Banks Had A Good Quarter. We Still Have No Plans to Invest in Them.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Mid-Year Market Outlook
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
VettaFi Honored As Finalist for 2023 “Wealthie” Award In Research Innovation
Earlier this month, WealthManagement.com announced the finalists for its 2023 Industry Awards (the “Wealthies”). VettaFi is one of two firms to be recognized for outstanding achievement in research innovation. The Wealthies was the first award program of its kind to honor companies, organizations, and individuals supporting financial advisor success.
How to Visualize Your Clients’ Assets and Financial Needs
Asset-Map is a tool for financial professionals to visually map and provide feedback on their client’s financial picture. With better insights into a client’s financial inventory, advisors can help clients identify risks, opportunities and track progress to their financial goals. Adam Holt joins me to discuss Asset-Map and his vision for the future of technology-enabled advice delivery.
Beyond Chat: How AI is Impacting Real World Investing Right Now
In this provocative discussion, VettaFi Financial Futurist Dave Nadig sits down with Zeno Mercer, Senior Research Analyst at ROBO Global, and Adam Butler, CIO of Resolve Asset Management to delve into two intertwined.
Gundlach: Buy Bonds, Not Stocks
“Owning bonds is better than white-knuckling it in stocks in an economy that is going into a recession,” Jeffrey Gundlach said.
Wall Street’s Once-Hot Trades of 2023 Are Unraveling in Markets
The once-hot Wall Street trades of 2023 are all falling apart, in a fresh blow to market pros blindsided again and again ever since the pandemic broke out.
Trade Deficit Expands to $74.60B
The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In April, the trade deficit expanded by 23% to $74.60B. This is the largest gap the trade balance has seen in the last 6 months. The latest reading was smaller than the -$75.20B forecast.
Debt Ceiling: Common Sense Prevailed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Asset Managers, Industry Aggressively Snap Up Silver
Top Silver Mining CEO: "On the demand side, it’s pretty phenomenal…"
Macro Outlook Retakes Spotlight
We see the market’s focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. We prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.
Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.
Wall Street Misses Out on Unexpected Rally in Local EM Bonds
Wall Street has been caught by surprise by a rally in local emerging-market debt, an asset class that’s been largely abandoned by foreign investors after a decade of underperformance.
PayPal’s 80% Stock Plunge Hasn’t Soured Wall Street
For the majority of PayPal Holdings Inc. analysts, the only way is up. The trouble is, the stock keeps going down.
Bond Bulls Bet Fed Is Right in Anticipating Low Rates to Return
Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.
What Changed with the Pandemic (And What Didn’t)
Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.
Preparing for Volatility: The Debt Ceiling and The End of US Exceptionalism
The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.
Future of Finance: 5 Hard Truths About How AI Impacts the Real World
Tired of the AI hype yet? It’s OK, I understand. I’m tired of it too. The pace of human progress — and our insatiable need to be entertained by the shock of the new — seems to be forevermore in the “hockey stick” part of the growth curve.
The Case for Non-U.S. Allocations
At of the start of this year, Rick Pitcairn took on a new position as the chief global strategist at Pitcairn, a 100-year-old multi-family office with $7bn in client assets. In this position, he is focusing on macro-economic trends and is searching for new global initiatives that will add to the firm’s growth.
Rick recently journeyed to India where he met with some of the wealthiest local families to discuss multi-generational wealth transfer. He saw that people all around the world want the same things, including economic security and a safe environment to raise their children. But the investing and business environments differ significantly. Rick knows that U.S. investors have a home bias, but he saw substantial economic growth is happening outside our borders. Rick is here to discuss if an international allocation appropriate or too risky.
World Markets Watchlist: June 5, 2023
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.
Is Jeremy Siegel Right About Stocks for the Long Run?
The empirical evidence supports Seigel’s general assertion that stocks beat inflation in the long run. But the inflation-hedging benefits of stocks aren’t perfect.
Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing at All?
History suggests that a soft landing might be difficult, as the U.S. has entered a recession following the last five periods when inflation peaked above 5%.
Which Fund to Choose for Exposure to the Reinsurance Risk Premium
I will analyze the pros and cons of three funds to access the reinsurance market.
ISM Services Expand for Fifth Consecutive Month in May
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its May services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.3, which was below the forecast of 51.8. The latest reading marks the fifth consecutive month the index has been expansion territory.
S&P Global Services PMI: Strongest Expansion in Over a Year
The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year.
Bond Bulls Ignore Fed-Hike Noise and Keep Buying Yield Spikes
For over a year, bond traders have been whipsawed by uncertainty about how high the Federal Reserve will push interest rates.
Monetary Conditions Index Is Working Against The Fed
Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a “soft landing” scenario. Such is where the economy slows substantially but avoids a deeper contraction.
Know How To Get There: Three Implementation Capabilities You Should Demand From Your OCIO Provider
A robust implementation strategy and real-world implementation capabilities are both necessary in order to achieve your portfolio’s preferred position.
Airlines Are Bracing For Record Summer Travel. A Golden Opportunity For Investors?
The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.
A Much-Needed Crisis
“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
What's next for global growth? Our Macro Strategies team shares a regional breakdown of their growth expectations across the globe.
Energy Transition Generates Potential Investment Opportunities
Structural changes in the world’s energy systems represent significant investment potential across an array of sectors. Analysts on our equity research team offer insights into the impact and opportunities.
What’s Impacting Retirement Readiness Today
New findings from EBRI’s recently released 2023 Retirement Confidence Survey reveal what’s top of mind for American workers and retirees. Below, we look at two key findings – alongside ways the industry is responding.
The US Debt Ceiling Debacle Is Not Over
The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country on track for a Biden-Trump rematch next year – a contest that Trump just might win – the truce is likely to be short-lived.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. May saw a 339,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The forecast was for 180,000 jobs gained.
Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of May 2023
The moving average for the light vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Almost 45 years later, it is down 40.5% from that peak.
Employment Report: 339K Jobs Added in May
The employment report for May showed a 339,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The addition is well above expectations of 180,000 new obs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
Hedge Funds at War for Top Traders Dangle $120 Million Payouts
When portfolio manager David Lipner said he was quitting billionaire Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management to join a rival, the hedge fund countered with an unusual proposal: A one-year paid sabbatical and an incentive upon return if Lipner stayed.
Value Does Just Fine in Recessions
A core concern for investors contemplating taking advantage of the incredible cheapness of deep value stocks today is the potential for a near-term recession.
P/E10 Unchanged in May
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.
Conflicting Signals Add Uncertainty to Fed’s Rate Path
Choppiness in the equity market continues as investors look to see a debt limit deal approved.
Macro Tailwinds for Emerging Markets
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
The Tapestry of Debt and What We Need To Do To Unravel It
Thoughts on the current US debt challenge and the long-term implications for markets and the economy from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2023
After a continued rally in April, markets largely pulled back in May. Exceptions here were the Nasdaq, which rose, and the S&P 500, which was essentially flat.
The U.K.’s Inflation Problem
Inflation is one way the U.K. is paying for leaving Europe.
Investing in AI-Focused ETFs: A Smart Move for Modern Investors
Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized how we live and work, and it is now poised to transform the investing world. As technology continues to evolve and mature, investors are increasingly turning to AI-focused ETFs to gain exposure to this dynamic and rapidly growing sector.
America and China Are on a Collision Course
The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed to thread the needle at their recent summit in Hiroshima.
Private Equity Has a Problem
The private equity (PE) industry has been all the rage over the past 10 years.
Q-Ratio Unchanged in May
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.41, unchanged from April.
Fintech Brex’s Revenue Surges After Regional Bank Turmoil
Brex, a credit-card startup, has seen a surge in usage of its products following this year’s regional banking turmoil.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for Seventh Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 46.9 in May. The lates figure marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The May reading was just below the forecast of 47.0.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Decline in May
The May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ dropped for the first time in five months to 48.4. The latest figure moves the index back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month stint in expansion territory. The May reading is slightly below the forecast of 48.5.
The Return of El Niño
Humanity is sitting on a time bomb.
Why the Fed Is Hard to Predict
The US Federal Reserve is adrift, and it has only itself to blame. Regardless of whether its policy-setting committee announces another interest-rate hike in June, its top priority now should be to address the structural weaknesses that led it astray in the first place.
Markets Now Accept Rate Cuts Unlikely
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
VettaFi Viewpoints: Dave Nadig & Zeno Mercer on AI’s Disruptive Potential
VettaFi’s Financial Futurist Dave Nadig sat down with ROBO Global’s senior research analyst Zeno Mercer for a wide-ranging discussion about AI. Together, the two explored industries that could benefit from AI, those facing existential threats, and how the smartest AI analysts see it.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes May Up 0.25%
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.
Central Bank Digital Currencies are Coming
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are the next step in financial innovation. The government will do what it deems in its best interests. CBDCs will replace physical currency; it's just a question of when.
Debt Ceiling: Getting to Yes
A debt ceiling deal is within sight.
Is the Commercial Real Estate Market a Potential Threat to the Banking System?
The stresses in the CRE market do not appear to pose a systemic threat to the global banking system.
Is This The Turning Point For Energy Markets?
Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.
The Resilience of the U.S. Economy: It’s All About Employment, and the Consumer
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The Time is Now for a Systemic Market Hedge
A range-bound VIX between 20-35 has common markers and dynamics which signal a “crisis gateway” that deserves a defensive posture.
Treasury Bills Climb as Traders Bet Congress Will Pass Debt Deal
Treasury bills maturing in the first half of June rallied as trading resumed following the Memorial Day holiday after a deal to lift the debt ceiling eased concern over the prospect of a calamitous US default.
Dimon Confronts New China Reality in First Visit Since Covid
When Jamie Dimon takes center stage at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s China summit Wednesday, he’ll be confronting a business landscape that looks vastly different from his visit four years ago.
Nvidia Charges Toward $1 Trillion Market Value in Massive AI Bet
Nvidia Corp. is poised to become the world’s first chipmaker with a $1 trillion market capitalization, joining an exclusive club of American companies with a valuation that high.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Rebound Continued in March
In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.
Bull vs. Bear: Is There a Future for Fossil Fuel Investments?
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.
Risks to Growth Are Ample but May Prove Surmountable
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Making Cent$ Of the Dollar: Understanding the Challenges to Its Global Reserve Currency Status
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
Defensive Stand: Investment-Grade Corporates Hold the Line
The financial markets are giving off mixed signals of late, and credit investors may wonder whether to be downbeat or optimistic.
Beyond the Garden Variety of ETFS
Like planting seeds, sometimes new investment vehicles take time to take root. David Mann, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global ETF Product and Capital Markets, draws parallels between gardening and developing and growing new ETFs.
The Seesaw Becomes Extreme
We've described the past several years' stock market as a seesaw in which the "market" was the fulcrum of the seesaw. On one side of the seesaw sit the highly speculative growth sectors and on the other side, sit virtually everything else in the global equity markets.
SIC Mix
Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.
The AI Era Unleashed: How NVIDIA’s Stock Boom Reflects The Future Of Tech
If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.
AI-Focused ETF Assets Could Triple to $35 billion by 2030
Exchange-traded funds tracking companies that are linked to artificial intelligence may see their assets grow three-fold to $35 billion by 2030, a report by Bloomberg Intelligence shows.
This A Rated REIT Just Increased Their Dividend Offering a 7% Current Yield
According to the company’s investor relations page on this REIT, Simon Property Trust (SPG) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company.
VettaFi Voices On: One Year as VettaFi
Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.