Join the Experts at Global X and VettaFi for a webcast unpacking how to use options-based ETFs to create stronger portfolios.
Join the experts at Kraneshares and VettaFi for a webcast digging into how advisors can more strategically deploy allocations to China and benefit from broad emerging markets exposure.
Downside equity market volatility can be unsettling, but it is important to put the pullback in perspective and identify the drivers of the negative market reaction. First and foremost, the equity market was due for a modest pullback.
With negligible incremental risk, a RAFI Global Index hypothetically outperformed a Cap-Weighted Global Index by 40 bps per annum and a Cap-Weighted Global Value Index by 2.2% from 2007 to 2022—a 16-year period covering the long value rout and its aftermath.
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 2, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 21.71%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 12.14% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a YTD gain of 7.40%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is up 70 basis points this year, leading many to question the future direction of interest rates. Let’s look at the underlying causes of this and whether those conditions are likely to persist.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.53, down from 1.55 in August.
Common aphorisms and assumed truths about stock returns often imply the disappearance of risk over long horizons. Is that accurate?
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 49.0 in September. The latest figure marks the eleventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The August reading was above the forecast of 47.7.
Offices in many of the world’s major cities are struggling to find workers to occupy them. The trend of remote working, triggered by the pandemic, is costing Manhattan “$12 billion a year,” “devastating America’s cities” and “killing London.”
The September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 49.8 from 47.9 in August, signaling only a fractional decline in operating conditions. The September reading was higher than the expected 48.9 reading.
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
The third quarter was a story of dashed hopes in emerging markets, with the unraveling of some of the most profitable trades in the asset class.
Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks.
The commercial real estate sector’s continued challenges could potentially impact US banks. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Shawn Lyons discusses the ongoing commercial real estate crisis and how US banks are safeguarding themselves against these issues.
Preferred stocks are what’s known as hybrid securities, meaning the asset class displays both equity and fixed income characteristics.
Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.
Change is inevitable. When those changes involve tax law, it is extremely important for clients to meet with their financial professional, tax advisor, and legal advisor to discuss any adjustments that may need to be made to their financial, retirement, or estate plan.
One change that is looming is the expiration of provisions that were passed under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). Many of the provisions for individuals, including the higher estate tax exemption and the lower individual income tax brackets, were temporary and will expire (“sunset”) December 31, 2025 without further congressional action.
My guests today are two members of the MassMutual team. Lina Storm is the advanced sales & sales enablement marketing director dedicated to MassMutual’s Strategic Distribution team. Kathryn Wakefield is director of advanced sales at MassMutual.
Certain asset classes thrive or lag as economies move through one cycle to the next. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow shares how to analyze different economic indicators and how asset classes perform through economic regime changes.
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
U.S. stocks typically post their best returns in the final quarter of the year. Our review of S&P 500 performance since the index’s inception in 1957 found an average Q4 uptick of 4%. (Q1 was next best at an average of 2%.)
The prevailing narrative about the U.S. economy is that it’s ‘resilient’: despite rapid rate hikes, economic growth has held up and may even be accelerating.
We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.
Active management in ETFs are gaining market share in 2023, as leading managers bring their best ideas into the ETF industry.
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
The level of concern among retail executives over the resumption of student loan payments run the gamut from brushing it off as a non-event to bracing for a big pullback in spending.
The Fed-induced selloff in technology stocks has traders dusting off their turmoil playbooks. Trouble is, one of the most popular strategies isn’t working: hiding out in Apple Inc.
Lawmakers in the US House omitted further aid to Ukraine from a proposal that would keep the government open, signaling that support for funding its fight against the Russian invasion is getting harder.
The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.
Despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening and the regional banking crisis earlier this year, the U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient. Bond yields continue to rise, with long-term Treasuries at their highest level since October 2007.
Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
2023’s market rally continues to center itself on the big tech comeback with certain themes exhibiting strength like artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. While these themes can offer traders short-term opportunities, they can also persist in the long term as growth plays.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 4.93%, after a loss of 1.71% in August. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— are signaling "cash", up from last month's double "cash" signal.
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
Like any recovering reporter, I like to keep tabs on my old beats, and the marijuana ETF space never disappoints. Or, perhaps more accurately, it never stops disappointing.
In what has been a hugely disruptive year for social media, Zuckerberg seems to be coming out on top — and enjoying it.
Share debuts among technology companies haven’t inspired confidence this year, with two of the largest offerings sliding below their listing prices within the first week. The next big deal may reignite interest in IPOs because of a unique set of traits.
Russia plans to reduce diesel exports from its key western ports to almost nothing next month after the government banned overseas sales to tame surging prices at home.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in August and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.
With the release of August's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.18% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.76% nominal and 3.17% real.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been at the forefront of the 2023 market rally, offering investors long-term growth opportunity as well as short-term trading opportunities. For the latter, consider a pair of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Direxion Investments.
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
Small-cap stocks and related exchange traded funds are taking a back seat to large-cap counterparts this year. The Russell 2000 Index has shed almost 5% over the past month. However, some market observers remain constructive on smaller stocks.
I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
ROBO: Global Robotics and Automation Index Featuring Zeno Mercer and Jon Fee
Join the experts at VettaFi for an interactive webinar featuring Bob Minter and Dan Magnusson from abrdn, as they discuss current market events and their impact on the commodity asset class, how emerging markets are helping to drive commodity investment opportunities, and where commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined somewhat in September and the future outlook fell slightly. The composite index came in at -8, down from 0 in August, while the future outlook decreased to 1 from 2 last month.
The two-month selloff in US stocks threatens to intensify as options dealers on Wall Street and fast-money traders both turn against the market.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.
The fate of stock options with a face value of trillions of dollars is being influenced by unusual trading activity in the S&P 500 outside regular market hours, new research has found.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index plummeted 7.1% in August to 71.8, a larger decline than the expected -0.8% decrease. This is the lowest reading for the index since April 2020 and is the second lowest figure in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 18.7% compared to one year ago.
However, the regulators made asset management news with their focus on “truth in advertising.” Despite their well-intentioned efforts, it will remain paramount for investors to do their homework and look inside the portfolio.
Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.
EnerSys is a leader in stored energy solutions. Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, this company makes batteries, chargers, and accessories for transportation, aerospace, and defense.
VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF (MUSQ) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
2022 did damage to many portfolios, but since then the S&P 500 has rebounded. Still, many questions remain about the trajectory of the market. This is where hedged equities could come into play.
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for a 30-minute LiveCast exploring hedged equities and how they could find success in a market that could go either way.
It doesn’t seem that difficult. Why don’t more of us follow this advice?
A key measure of how much bond investors are compensated for holding long-term debt turned positive for the first time since June 2021, reflecting steep increases in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
This stock market rally in the first half of 2023 was built on the back of technology stocks, as investors bet on a resilient US consumer and hype surrounding artificial intelligence to keep the shares soaring.
The stock market is buckling under the weight of a simple equation: cash earns more than equities.
China’s goal of self-reliance will certainly rely on innovation. Right now, the second-largest economy sits firmly atop the list of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) when it comes to innovation on a global scale.
The Fed sent a strong signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has long predicted. The Fed also started to acknowledge that the natural real rate of interest is higher than it thought.
Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.
Even the best scientists in the world cannot reliably forecast drug-test results, so why should investors gamble? Quality businesses are key for healthcare stocks.
Investors have been increasingly allocating to various alternative investments. However, I don't see them as distinct assets deserving of allocations. As I discuss in my article below, I consider alternatives investment styles and as optional for portfolios as taste is for nutrition.
Here are the 10 best books I read from September 2022 through August 2023.
The chair of the Securities and Exchanges Commission has asked staffers to pore over thousands of messages collected from investment firms as part of its probe into industry use of WhatsApp and other non-official messaging channels, according to Reuters.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a fifth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.9% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 0.1% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.4% and the YoY was reduced to -7.0%.
Investors that missed out on this year’s dizzying rally in Nvidia Corp. have an attractive entry point this month.
The aim of this series is to move beyond the simplistic example of goals that exist at a single point in the future to consider retirement, the most common purpose for long-term investing for an individual.
To judge by recent history, a US government shutdown won’t be a huge event for the bond market. If anything, it could even provide a little short-term relief, since Treasuries usually rally when investors need somewhere to hide.
It might be hard to believe after the crypto winter of 2022, but monetary tightening by global central banks could be supportive of Bitcoin upside.
In many ways, 2023 continues to be the mirror image of 2022, with the most volatile assets being some of the best performers for much of the year.
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged wasn’t a surprise at all. Markets, as we argued last week, had predicted that the Fed was going to stay put and that is what it did.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
A balanced portfolio needs assets with strong return potential and those that may provide downside mitigation. We believe direct lending can deliver both—a potentially valuable feature, particularly in today’s uncertain market.
Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.
We started RBA in 2009 primarily because we thought the US stock market was entering one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. However, most investors did not agree with our bullishness. Now, risk aversion seems a thing of the past.
Investors think about companies as being either large or small. In between those extremes are midcaps. Based on historical performance and fundamentals, midcaps should command more attention.
The Big Myth is the remarkable, and largely untold, story of how America fell in love with market fundamentalism.
The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.
A group of high-frequency traders, market makers and service providers calling themselves the Shortwave Modernization Coalition has asked the Federal Communications Commission for access to the shortwave band of the radio spectrum, seeking to shave crucial milliseconds off the transmission of data between major financial sectors.
Global Markets
How to Use Options Based ETF Strategies In a Portfolio
Join the Experts at Global X and VettaFi for a webcast unpacking how to use options-based ETFs to create stronger portfolios.
Right-Sizing China Exposure In Emerging Markets
Join the experts at Kraneshares and VettaFi for a webcast digging into how advisors can more strategically deploy allocations to China and benefit from broad emerging markets exposure.
A Predictable Pullback in Equity Markets
Downside equity market volatility can be unsettling, but it is important to put the pullback in perspective and identify the drivers of the negative market reaction. First and foremost, the equity market was due for a modest pullback.
Rocking with RAFI: International Evidence
With negligible incremental risk, a RAFI Global Index hypothetically outperformed a Cap-Weighted Global Index by 40 bps per annum and a Cap-Weighted Global Value Index by 2.2% from 2007 to 2022—a 16-year period covering the long value rout and its aftermath.
World Markets Watchlist: October 2, 2023
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 2, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 21.71%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 12.14% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a YTD gain of 7.40%.
Why Rates are Rising
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is up 70 basis points this year, leading many to question the future direction of interest rates. Let’s look at the underlying causes of this and whether those conditions are likely to persist.
Q-Ratio Falls Again in September
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.53, down from 1.55 in August.
Long-Horizon Investing, Part 2: Stocks are Always Risky
Common aphorisms and assumed truths about stock returns often imply the disappearance of risk over long horizons. Is that accurate?
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for Eleventh Consecutive Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 49.0 in September. The latest figure marks the eleventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The August reading was above the forecast of 47.7.
Manhattan’s Offices Are Empty. Tokyo Is Adding New Space.
Offices in many of the world’s major cities are struggling to find workers to occupy them. The trend of remote working, triggered by the pandemic, is costing Manhattan “$12 billion a year,” “devastating America’s cities” and “killing London.”
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Slower Contraction in September
The September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 49.8 from 47.9 in August, signaling only a fractional decline in operating conditions. The September reading was higher than the expected 48.9 reading.
Why Central Banks Will Soon Lend to Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Severe Crash Is Coming for US Office Properties, Investors Say
Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
The Bull Case for Emerging Markets in 2023 Is Finally Shattering
The third quarter was a story of dashed hopes in emerging markets, with the unraveling of some of the most profitable trades in the asset class.
What Mattered This Week? The Real Economy
Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks.
Stress Testing the Foundations: Analyzing the Vulnerability of Us Banks To Falling Commercial Real Estate Values
The commercial real estate sector’s continued challenges could potentially impact US banks. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Shawn Lyons discusses the ongoing commercial real estate crisis and how US banks are safeguarding themselves against these issues.
Getting a Pulse on Preferred Stocks
Preferred stocks are what’s known as hybrid securities, meaning the asset class displays both equity and fixed income characteristics.
Energy Prices Are Creating Discomfort
Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.
Preparing for the Sunset of the TCJA Tax Relief
Change is inevitable. When those changes involve tax law, it is extremely important for clients to meet with their financial professional, tax advisor, and legal advisor to discuss any adjustments that may need to be made to their financial, retirement, or estate plan.
One change that is looming is the expiration of provisions that were passed under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). Many of the provisions for individuals, including the higher estate tax exemption and the lower individual income tax brackets, were temporary and will expire (“sunset”) December 31, 2025 without further congressional action.
My guests today are two members of the MassMutual team. Lina Storm is the advanced sales & sales enablement marketing director dedicated to MassMutual’s Strategic Distribution team. Kathryn Wakefield is director of advanced sales at MassMutual.
Alternative Allocations: Navigating Through Economic Regimes
Certain asset classes thrive or lag as economies move through one cycle to the next. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow shares how to analyze different economic indicators and how asset classes perform through economic regime changes.
China’s Economic Woes Have Sparked A Gold Rush
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
Taking Stock: Q4 2023 Equity Market Outlook
U.S. stocks typically post their best returns in the final quarter of the year. Our review of S&P 500 performance since the index’s inception in 1957 found an average Q4 uptick of 4%. (Q1 was next best at an average of 2%.)
Stealth Stagnation: Why the U.S. Economy Is Not as Robust as You Think
The prevailing narrative about the U.S. economy is that it’s ‘resilient’: despite rapid rate hikes, economic growth has held up and may even be accelerating.
2023 Global Market Outlook – Q4 Update: Falling with Style
We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.
Why Investors Are Gravitating Toward Active Management In 2023
Active management in ETFs are gaining market share in 2023, as leading managers bring their best ideas into the ETF industry.
Once Unthinkable Bond Yields Are Now the New Normal for Markets
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
Visions of Sugar Plums and Soft Landings
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related
behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
Retailers Are Nervous About Your Student Loans
The level of concern among retail executives over the resumption of student loan payments run the gamut from brushing it off as a non-event to bracing for a big pullback in spending.
Megacap Slump Is Testing Apple’s Safe-Haven Status
The Fed-induced selloff in technology stocks has traders dusting off their turmoil playbooks. Trouble is, one of the most popular strategies isn’t working: hiding out in Apple Inc.
House Omits Ukraine Funding for Now in Measure to Avert Shutdown
Lawmakers in the US House omitted further aid to Ukraine from a proposal that would keep the government open, signaling that support for funding its fight against the Russian invasion is getting harder.
The Market Thinks the BoJ is In Play
The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.
Bond Yields Keep Rising as Economy Remains Resilient
Despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening and the regional banking crisis earlier this year, the U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient. Bond yields continue to rise, with long-term Treasuries at their highest level since October 2007.
What’s Next for Gilts and the United Kingdom?
Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.
Cyclical Forces
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
China’s Growth Is Slowing: What Does it Mean?
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
Cloud Computing and AI Will Be Persisting Themes in Tech
2023’s market rally continues to center itself on the big tech comeback with certain themes exhibiting strength like artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. While these themes can offer traders short-term opportunities, they can also persist in the long term as growth plays.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes September Down 4.9%
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 4.93%, after a loss of 1.71% in August. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— are signaling "cash", up from last month's double "cash" signal.
Powell Can’t Ignore the Elephant in the Room Forever
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
Marijuana ETFs Rise – and Fall – on Regulatory Hopes
Like any recovering reporter, I like to keep tabs on my old beats, and the marijuana ETF space never disappoints. Or, perhaps more accurately, it never stops disappointing.
Mark Zuckerberg Manages to Turn His Frown Upside Down
In what has been a hugely disruptive year for social media, Zuckerberg seems to be coming out on top — and enjoying it.
This Year’s Hottest Tech IPO May Be a Transportation Firm
Share debuts among technology companies haven’t inspired confidence this year, with two of the largest offerings sliding below their listing prices within the first week. The next big deal may reignite interest in IPOs because of a unique set of traits.
Russia Plans Near Zero Diesel Exports Next Month After Ban
Russia plans to reduce diesel exports from its key western ports to almost nothing next month after the government banned overseas sales to tame surging prices at home.
Pave Paradise
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Rises in August
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in August and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.2% in August
With the release of August's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.18% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.76% nominal and 3.17% real.
2 Leveraged ETF Options to Consider When Targeting AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been at the forefront of the 2023 market rally, offering investors long-term growth opportunity as well as short-term trading opportunities. For the latter, consider a pair of leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Direxion Investments.
Risk: Hikes May Be Over, But QT Goes On
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
Glimmers of Hope Emerge for Small-Caps
Small-cap stocks and related exchange traded funds are taking a back seat to large-cap counterparts this year. The Russell 2000 Index has shed almost 5% over the past month. However, some market observers remain constructive on smaller stocks.
The Great Malaise
I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.
Beyond the Landing
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
ROBO: Global Robotics and Automation Index
ROBO: Global Robotics and Automation Index Featuring Zeno Mercer and Jon Fee
Investment potential at the intersection of commodities and emerging markets
Join the experts at VettaFi for an interactive webinar featuring Bob Minter and Dan Magnusson from abrdn, as they discuss current market events and their impact on the commodity asset class, how emerging markets are helping to drive commodity investment opportunities, and where commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
Where Are All the Private Equity Bankruptcies?
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Somewhat in September
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined somewhat in September and the future outlook fell slightly. The composite index came in at -8, down from 0 in August, while the future outlook decreased to 1 from 2 last month.
Goldman’s Rubner Sees Deeper Stock Losses in a ‘No Rules Market’
The two-month selloff in US stocks threatens to intensify as options dealers on Wall Street and fast-money traders both turn against the market.
What Powell Said and What It Means for Markets
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.
S&P 500 Options Quirk Mints Billions, Stirring Manipulation Talk
The fate of stock options with a face value of trillions of dollars is being influenced by unusual trading activity in the S&P 500 outside regular market hours, new research has found.
Pending Home Sales Plummet 7.1% in August
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index plummeted 7.1% in August to 71.8, a larger decline than the expected -0.8% decrease. This is the lowest reading for the index since April 2020 and is the second lowest figure in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 18.7% compared to one year ago.
ETF Homework Remains Despite SEC Efforts
However, the regulators made asset management news with their focus on “truth in advertising.” Despite their well-intentioned efforts, it will remain paramount for investors to do their homework and look inside the portfolio.
Shifting Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt
Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.
Powering the Future of Stored Energy
EnerSys is a leader in stored energy solutions. Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, this company makes batteries, chargers, and accessories for transportation, aerospace, and defense.
MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF (MUSQ)
VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF (MUSQ) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
LiveCast: Hedged Equities and Why They Matter Amid Uncertainty
2022 did damage to many portfolios, but since then the S&P 500 has rebounded. Still, many questions remain about the trajectory of the market. This is where hedged equities could come into play.
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for a 30-minute LiveCast exploring hedged equities and how they could find success in a market that could go either way.
Living to 100 Isn’t Easy
It doesn’t seem that difficult. Why don’t more of us follow this advice?
Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
A key measure of how much bond investors are compensated for holding long-term debt turned positive for the first time since June 2021, reflecting steep increases in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
Tech Stocks That Drove Market Rally Are Now Down 10%
This stock market rally in the first half of 2023 was built on the back of technology stocks, as investors bet on a resilient US consumer and hype surrounding artificial intelligence to keep the shares soaring.
Wall Street Bets on High-Yielding Cash Deals in Fresh Blow to Stocks
The stock market is buckling under the weight of a simple equation: cash earns more than equities.
China Sits Firmly Atop Global Innovation Index
China’s goal of self-reliance will certainly rely on innovation. Right now, the second-largest economy sits firmly atop the list of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) when it comes to innovation on a global scale.
On My Mind: Restrictive? We’ll know it when we see it.
The Fed sent a strong signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer, as our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has long predicted. The Fed also started to acknowledge that the natural real rate of interest is higher than it thought.
Unlisted Infrastructure – Highway to Diversification
Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.
Healthcare Stocks Invest in Business, not Science
Even the best scientists in the world cannot reliably forecast drug-test results, so why should investors gamble? Quality businesses are key for healthcare stocks.
Treat Alternatives Like Cuisines, Not Distinct Assets
Investors have been increasingly allocating to various alternative investments. However, I don't see them as distinct assets deserving of allocations. As I discuss in my article below, I consider alternatives investment styles and as optional for portfolios as taste is for nutrition.
The 10 Best Non-Fiction Books of This Year
Here are the 10 best books I read from September 2022 through August 2023.
Gensler Reminds Hedge Funds He's Still Sheriff of Wall Street
The chair of the Securities and Exchanges Commission has asked staffers to pore over thousands of messages collected from investment firms as part of its probe into industry use of WhatsApp and other non-official messaging channels, according to Reuters.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Continues to Trend Upward in July
Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a fifth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.9% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 0.1% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.4% and the YoY was reduced to -7.0%.
Nvidia’s Worst Month in a Year Is a Gift For Bulls
Investors that missed out on this year’s dizzying rally in Nvidia Corp. have an attractive entry point this month.
Long-Horizon Investing, Part 1: A Ton of Feathers
The aim of this series is to move beyond the simplistic example of goals that exist at a single point in the future to consider retirement, the most common purpose for long-term investing for an individual.
Bond Traders Roiled by Fed See US Shutdown as Next Big Wild Card
To judge by recent history, a US government shutdown won’t be a huge event for the bond market. If anything, it could even provide a little short-term relief, since Treasuries usually rally when investors need somewhere to hide.
Monetary Tightening Might Boost Bitcoin, Says Crypto Expert
It might be hard to believe after the crypto winter of 2022, but monetary tightening by global central banks could be supportive of Bitcoin upside.
As the Economy Slows, Favor Consistency Over Volatility
In many ways, 2023 continues to be the mirror image of 2022, with the most volatile assets being some of the best performers for much of the year.
Bank of England: A surprise end to UK rate hikes?
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
The Match Continues: The Fed vs. The Market
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged wasn’t a surprise at all. Markets, as we argued last week, had predicted that the Fed was going to stay put and that is what it did.
Global Economic Outlook: China Casts a Shadow in the East…and West
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Offense or Defense? Direct Lending Can Play Both
A balanced portfolio needs assets with strong return potential and those that may provide downside mitigation. We believe direct lending can deliver both—a potentially valuable feature, particularly in today’s uncertain market.
Biden Administration Expands War on Critical Natural Resources
Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.
Investors’ Shift From Fear to Greed Presents Historic Opportunities
We started RBA in 2009 primarily because we thought the US stock market was entering one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. However, most investors did not agree with our bullishness. Now, risk aversion seems a thing of the past.
The Compelling Opportunity in Midcaps
Investors think about companies as being either large or small. In between those extremes are midcaps. Based on historical performance and fundamentals, midcaps should command more attention.
How America Fell in Love with the Power of the Free Market
The Big Myth is the remarkable, and largely untold, story of how America fell in love with market fundamentalism.
“That 70s Show”
The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.
High-Frequency Traders Want Low-Frequency Radio Waves
A group of high-frequency traders, market makers and service providers calling themselves the Shortwave Modernization Coalition has asked the Federal Communications Commission for access to the shortwave band of the radio spectrum, seeking to shave crucial milliseconds off the transmission of data between major financial sectors.