Commentary

The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2025

Even for dedicated investors, Social Security retirement benefits can be an important part of their financial security.

Commentary

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Yield Curve Un-Inverts (October 14, 2024)

The yield curve indicates that US economic growth has slowed, with only limited signs that the economy could be heading into a broad decline.

Commentary

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Is the Sahm Rule Right?

The “Sahm Rule,” a widely used metric for determining the early stages of recession, was triggered in July.

Commentary

The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II

In Part II, we discuss the reasons for the breakdown of the order prior to President Trump and follow this discussion with the impact of the current president. We project the likely actions of the nations in the region and, as always, conclude with market ramifications.

Commentary

The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I

In past reports we have discussed America’s evolving hegemony, noting that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism which united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role.

Commentary

The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part II

In Part II, we explain why Japanese-Korean hostilities have suddenly broken out into the open again and conclude by discussing the implications of the dispute for the countries’ economies and for investors.

Commentary

The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part I

The press has been reporting on a trade spat between Japan and South Korea, ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup to World War II. The dispute is only the latest chapter in a long history of conflict between Korea and Japan.

Commentary

Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part II

In Part I, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem, examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy, and discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed.

Commentary

Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part I

Last month, we wrote a two-part report on weaponizing the dollar. The continued strength of the dollar has become newsworthy recently, prompting us to provide an update to those earlier reports and include an analysis of new legislation introduced in the Senate.

Commentary

A Kashmir Sweater

Indian PM Modi’s latest surprising policy move was the sudden announcement that the northern state of Jammu and Kashmir would no longer have the special autonomy it has enjoyed since India’s independence.

Commentary

Meet Boris Johnson

The Financial Crisis consumed what was in many ways an overgrown and brittle economic system within the world’s developed countries. The conflagration destroyed many traditional politicians identified with the highly globalized economy and encouraged disruptive, populist leaders to begin reaching for their place in the sun.

Commentary

Weaponizing the Dollar: Part II

In Part I, we began our analysis with a discussion of Mundell’s Impossible Trinity. We also covered the gold standard model and Bretton Woods model. In Part II, we examine the Treasury/dollar standard and introduce what could be called Bretton Woods II.

Commentary

Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I

The Bretton Woods agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates that lasted until Nixon ended foreign dollar holders’ ability to swap for gold. Since 1971, most developed nations have adopted floating exchange rates and open capital accounts.

Commentary

The Economic Triangle: Part II

In Part I, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand.

Commentary

The Economic Triangle: Part I

People tend to think in paradigms. We adopt a certain worldview or narrative for how things work and then impose them on reality. The problem is that our worldview or paradigm may not be true.