We occasionally run across a book that we deem important enough in the arena of geopolitics to warrant a full report dedicated to its review, The Marshall Plan: Dawn of the Cold War by Benn Steil. This book details the history of the Marshall Plan, discusses how the plan developed and identifies the major historical figures who created it.
This week, we will conclude our series on globalization with a discussion of how China and Russia threaten U.S. hegemony, the potential responses and close with market ramifications.
Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents.
For much of recorded human history, we have seen waves of globalization and deglobalization. Our position has been that we have experienced the apex of globalization and a steady cycle of deglobalization will occur over the next few decades.
Last week, we discussed the six major nations involved in the North Korean issue and each country’s geopolitical goals, constraints and meeting positions for the recently proposed summit between the U.S. and North Korea. This week, we examine why the talks are being proposed now and offer reasons why they may fail or succeed. We summarize the costs and benefits of the summit meeting and conclude with market ramifications.
On March 8, officials from South Korea briefed U.S. officials on a recent dinner with Kim Jong-un, which marked the first time South Korean officials had been inside North Korea’s Communist Party headquarters since the Korean War. The South Koreans informed Trump of Kim Jong-un’s desire to have a meeting and Trump agreed.
Last week, we discussed China’s power structure and how the suspension of term limits changes recent precedents. This week, we continue this topic by analyzing China’s challenges while shifting from the world’s high growth/low cost producer to a slower growth, “normal” economy.
The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party recently announced it would end term limits on president and vice president. Thus, President Xi Jinping will be able to maintain his current position beyond his 2nd term.
In Part I of this report we outlined the geopolitics of Italy and its political economy. This week, we continue the report with an analysis of the upcoming elections and Germany’s impact on the EU, concluding with potential market ramifications.
Trump campaigned on a populist agenda. His “America First” mantra railed against free trade deals, suggesting they were poorly negotiated, supported immigration restrictions and called on allies to shoulder more of the defense burden. In this report, we focus on trade following his first year in office, beginning with a review of American hegemony and trade.