In the movie, Minority Report, Tom Cruise plays a policeman in a world where crimes are predicted ahead of time. Cruise’s character gets accused of a future murder and he is forced to work incredibly hard to acquit himself of the anticipated crime.
Trump campaigned on a populist agenda. His “America First” mantra railed against free trade deals, suggesting they were poorly negotiated, supported immigration restrictions and called on allies to shoulder more of the defense burden. In this report, we focus on trade following his first year in office, beginning with a review of American hegemony and trade.
Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon recently announced that their three companies will form a non-profit entity to attempt to drive down healthcare costs for them and possibly other companies. In the process of making the announcement, Buffett called the healthcare sector of the U.S. a “hungry tapeworm” in the economy.
Is the underperformance by most large-cap value investing strategies in this lengthy bull market the “darkest hour” for value investors? This is the longest underperformance stretch of four relatively poor stretches for value in the last 80 years.
Last week, we reviewed the development of nuclear weapons and US deployment policy from the end of WWII to the end of the Cold War. We analyzed how the theory of deterrence developed and introduced events of the post-Cold War era. This week, we discuss how Cold War arrangements have broken down in the post-Cold War world and the ensuing nuclear proliferation.
Years ago we published a report on nuclear war and civil defense. Since then, we have seen an increase in actual and potential nuclear proliferation. Recent US administrations have reviewed their policies on nuclear weapons and we are seeing a departure from the late Cold War thinking on nuclear policy.
Long term success in common stock ownership is much more about patience and discipline than it is about mathematics. There is no better arena for discussing this truism than in how investors measure risk. It is the opinion of our firm that measuring a portfolio’s variability to an index is ridiculous, because it is impossible to beat the index without variability.
It is important to separate mini-manias from true bubbles. Unfortunately, the difference is mostly the amount of money chasing the folly. Millions and even billions of dollars lost (and thousands of jobs) equate to fads, while trillions of dollars lost (and rampant unemployment and recessions) are bubbles.
As we enter 2018, numerous uncertainties are dominating the minds of American citizens and investors. We are happy to weigh in on what we consider to be both un-useful and useful uncertainties as they pertain to long duration ownership of common stocks.
Women have gotten the short stick or metaphorically the short rib ever since Eve, and I’m with Oprah for president and much, much more but hey, guys have got a few positive qualities that need to be mentioned.