Technically Speaking: 5 Reasons To Be Bullish (or Not) On Stocks
Just recently, Tom Lee, head of Fundstrat Global Advisors, published a list of 5-bullish signs for the stock investors which he says you should “ignore at your own peril.” As he notes:
“In short, these signals are saying the S&P 500 is set up for a monster 2H rally. We are not ignoring the negative signal of a plunge in interest rates, nor saying that a full-blown trade war is negative for the World. But, we believe the trifecta of strong US corporates, positive White House (towards biz) and dovish Fed, are major supports for the US equity market.”
His view is that the short-term disruption of the market over “trade” issues is an opportunity for investors to increase equity exposure.
Over the last few weeks, we had discussed the excessive deviation to the market above the 200-dma, which suggested that a reversal of that extension was probable. The question now is whether Tom’s view is correct?
Are the markets set up for “monster second-half rally,” or is this just the continuation of the topping process that began last year.
While these are certainly reasons to be “hopeful” that stocks will continue to rise into the future, “hope”has rarely been a fruitful investment strategy longer term. Therefore, let’s analyze each of the arguments from both perspectives to eliminate “confirmation bias.”
Economic Growth To Improve
No matter where you look as of late, economic growth has been pretty dismal. However, there is always hope for improvement that could support a recovery in asset prices.
“Still, many analysts remain optimistic that the U.S. economy can continue expanding even if growth slows down. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., which measures broadly whether data points are meeting expectations, has risen sharply in recent weeks.” – WSJ