In a recent post, I discussed the “3-stages of a bear market.” To wit:
“Yes, the market will rally, and likely substantially so. But, let me remind you of Bob Farrell’s Rule #8 from our recent newsletter:
Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
- Bear markets often START with a sharp and swift decline.
- After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline.
- The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate.
Dow Theory also suggests that bear markets consist of three down legs with reflexive rebounds in between.
However, the “bear market” is only one-half of a vastly more important concept – the “Full Market Cycle.”
The Full Market Cycle
Over the last decade, the media has focused on the bull market, making an assumption that the current trend would last indefinitely. However, throughout history, bull market cycles make up on one-half of the “full market” cycle. During every “bull market” cycle, the market and economy build up excesses, which must ultimately be reversed through a market reversion and economic recession. In the other words, as Sir Issac Newton discovered:
“What goes up, must come down.”
The chart below shows the full market cycles over time. Since the current “full market” cycle is yet to be completed, I have drawn a long-term trend line with the most logical completion point of the current cycle.
[Note: I am not stating the markets are about to crash to the 1600 level on the S&P 500. I am simply showing where the current uptrend line intersects with the price. The longer that it takes for the markets to mean revert, the higher the intersection point will be. Furthermore, the 1600 level is not out of the question either. Famed investor Jack Bogle stated that over the next decade we are likely to see two more 50% declines. A 50% decline from the all-time highs would put the market at 1600.]
As I have often stated, I am not bullish or bearish. My job as a portfolio manager is simple; invest money in a manner that creates returns on a short-term basis, but reduces the possibility of catastrophic losses, which wipe out years of growth.
Nobody tends to believe that philosophy until the markets wipe about 30% of portfolio values in a month.