The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession.
From a contrarian investing view, everyone remains bearish despite a market that corrected all of last year.
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy.
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks.
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy?
The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.”
Home prices have started to correct as interest rates rose sharply in 2022.
For many investors who started their investing journey following the financial crisis, forward returns will be disappointing compared to the last decade.
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
With 2022 finally over, and not soon enough, such is an excellent time to review our “investor resolutions.”
Much ink has been spilled over the death of the 60/40 portfolio.
Extremely harsh weather conditions from winter storm Elliot resulted in thousands of flight cancellations last weekend.
Managing your portfolio has more to do with gardening than you might imagine.
The big question heading into 2023 is the dreaded “R” word.
Capital represents the resources and labor used to produce goods and services.
In 2023, the math of valuations suggests returns will likely be challenging as markets remain difficult to navigate.
The key takeaway from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: despite encouraging inflation news, the Fed believes they have a long inflation fight ahead.
Will a dollar decline be good for stocks? It is an interesting question, given that during 2022 there was a significant non-correlation between the dollar and the stock market.
Since the beginning of October, the market has performed better as a “Fed Pivot” bull case pushed investors into the market
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
After 12 years of a liquidity-fueled, Fed-induced bull market, are the markets set to start another “secular” bear market?
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
Is a “hard landing” coming, economically speaking, as the Fed continues its most aggressive rate hike campaign in 40 years?
With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Historically speaking, such is the case.
There was a time when a large portion of Americans belonged to the “middle class.”
Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve.
Are the FANG stocks dead?
October started strong and then slid to new lows but managed to rally back toward the month’s end.
The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing.
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets? Stanly Druckenmiller believes that could be the case.
Last week, the FOMC published its minutes from the September meeting, confirming its recent stance that Fed rate hikes will continue until inflation is vanquished.
“Recession Fatigue” is setting in as consumers struggle under rising interest rates, high inflation, and a declining stock market.
While the Fed continues to hike rates to combat high inflation levels aggressively, history shows that deflation will become a more significant threat when something “breaks” in the financial or credit markets.
Is this the “Superbubble’s Final Act?” Such was a fascinating piece of commentary recently from Jeremy Grantham, famed investor and co-founder of GMO.
The strong dollar remains a risk to corporate profits and asset prices as the impact on the global economies grows.
“Market instability” remains the most significant risk to central banks globally.
A recent MarketWatch article discussed JPMorgan’s Chief Operating Officer, Daniel Pinto, views about a coming mild recession.
The latest rate hike announcement by the Fed sent stocks tumbling to the year’s lows. While last week’s market action was brutal, the good news is the markets are set up for a rather significant short squeeze higher.
The massive debt levels provide the single most significant risk and challenge to the Federal Reserve. It is also why the Fed is desperate to return inflation to low levels, even if it means weaker economic growth.
Stocks are far from cheap. Based on Buffett’s preferred valuation model and historical data, return expectations for the next ten years are as likely to be negative as they were for the ten years following the late ’90s.
Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history.
Recently, the Biden Administration started taking victory laps on deficit reduction.
At the Jackson Hole Summit, Jerome Powell made it clear the Federal Reserve remains focused on combatting inflation despite recession signals rising in tandem.
Last year, I wrote an article discussing that 2022 earnings estimates were too optimistic given the impending reversal of the economic “Sugar Rush” of massive liquidity injections.
Small business sales are the lifeblood of the economy.
The “Rule Of 20” says the “bear market” may just be resting despite much commentary to the contrary.
Buy stocks in a bear market.
The bear market is over.
Jerome Powell isn’t Paul Volker, and this isn’t 1982.
Economic slowdown but no recession!