I received an email last week which I thought was worth discussing.
“I just found your site and began reading the backlog of posts on the importance of managing risk and avoiding draw downs. However, the following chart would seem to counter that argument. In the long-term, bear markets seem harmless (and relatively small) as this literature would indicate?”
This same chart has been floating around the “inter-web,” in a couple of different forms for the last couple of months. Of course, if you study it at “face value” it certainly would appear that staying invested all the time certainly seems to be the optimal strategy.
The problem is the entire chart is deceptive.
More importantly, for those saving and investing for their retirement, it’s dangerous.
Here is why.
The first problem is the most obvious, and a topic I have addressed many times in past missives, you must worry about corrections.
“The problem is you DIED long before ever achieving that 5% annualized long-term return.
Let’s look at this realistically.
The average American faces a real dilemma heading into retirement. Unfortunately, individuals only have a finite investing time horizon until they retire.
Therefore, as opposed to studies discussing “long term investing” without defining what the “long term” actually is – it is “TIME” that we should be focusing on.
Think about it for a moment. Most investors don’t start seriously saving for retirement until they are in their mid-40’s. This is because by the time they graduate college, land a job, get married, have kids and send them off to college, a real push toward saving for retirement is tough to do as incomes, while growing, haven’t reached their peak. This leaves most individuals with just 20 to 25 productive work years before retirement age to achieve investment goals.
This is where the problem is. There are periods in history, where returns over a 20-year period have been close to zero or even negative.”