The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 22.2, down from last month's 27.9 and has been positive for twenty consecutive months. The 3-month moving average came in at 24.8, down from 27.0 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 42.2, a decrease from the previous month's 52.7. Today's 22.2 headline number came in below the 25.0 forecast at Investing.com. Annual revisions were made.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.302M was a fractional decrease from 1.303M in November and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.290M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.192M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.275M and a decrease from the previous month's revised 1.299M.
Tina Byles Williams, CIO and CEO of FIS Group, has just published the latest Q1 2018 Market Outlook, which delves into predictions for the year ahead, from a more challenging environment for risk assets to geopolitical tensions on the horizon.
Today's seasonally adjusted 220K new claims, down 41K from last week, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 250K and its lowest in almost 45 years. From the release: "Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands. Claims taking process in Puerto Rico has still not returned to normal."
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I don’t make market predictions very often. Normally, I leave those decisions to the professional money managers we recommend at Halbert Wealth Management. However, some recent developments have made me very concerned that the US equity markets are at high risk for a serious downward correction just ahead.
The stock market is on a tear. The S&P 500 rose 19.4% in 2017 excluding dividends, and is already up over 4% in 2018. It's not a bubble or a sugar high. Our capitalized profits model, says the broad U.S. stock market, is, and was, undervalued.
It is important to separate mini-manias from true bubbles. Unfortunately, the difference is mostly the amount of money chasing the folly. Millions and even billions of dollars lost (and thousands of jobs) equate to fads, while trillions of dollars lost (and rampant unemployment and recessions) are bubbles.
With the Dow opening above 26,000 yesterday morning, I was all set to continue down the same path of my Dow 24K and Dow 25K posts. Alas, it wasn’t to be. Although markets are up, the Dow is below the magic number as I write this, which is certainly okay.