This article talks through a selection of charts and indicators that will be key to watch to understand the risk and opportunity set for globally focused active asset allocators in 2018. The charts cover inflation, monetary policy, bond yields, gold, emerging markets, high yield credit, global equities, and China.
The relative performance of emerging markets has been unremarkable over the past decade, however meaningful changes have taken place in the fundamental and financial construct of the asset class that are relevant for asset allocators. Most notably, the composition of the index has seen dramatic shifts in sector, country, and stock constituents...
The investing industry is constantly devising new acronyms and buzzwords. Sometimes these can be dangerous. The rise of the FANG stocks highlights how clusters of stocks may create investing hazards that standard risk models struggle to detect.
In his recent article, Michael Edesess argued that multiple empirical “anomaly” studies and the wide use of regression are ruining finance research. While some of his points are valid, his conclusion that the entire set of academic studies should be discarded goes too far.
“There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV. I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them. The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think. Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.
I’m in the process of writing another book, going into great depth regarding one of the most important things discussed in my book The Most Important Thing: cycles, their causes, and what to do about them. It will be out next year, but this memo will give you a preview regarding one of the most important cyclical phenomena.
In a recent article, Larry Swedroe argued that long-term investors should avoid all levered ETFs. He based this conclusion on a 10-year ETF return sample. It turns out that this is an unrepresentative sample for making such a sweeping statement. Other studies, based on longer time periods, come to the opposite conclusion.
With the stock market at record heights, interest rates steadily ratcheting up and the possibility of tax reform, wealthy investors are seeking advice on how to mediate the risk of concentrated single-stock positions and incorporate them into their tax-management and estate planning strategies. In this webinar, Thomas, Nischal and Elizabeth will discuss a variety of tools and techniques advisors can use to help these clients: •decide in a logical, rather than emotional, way to maintain or liquidate some or all of their single-stock positions;•manage single-stock risk on a short-term basis;•diversify out of their concentrated positions in a tax-efficient manner; and •reduce their downside risk on a long-term basis without relinquishing ownership of their shares or capping their upside.
Park Geun-hye’s ouster as president of South Korea was due to a scandal involving her close confidant accused of seeking bribes from chaebols, a group of family-owned multinational conglomerates that dominate the economy.
Forty years of behavioral science research provides a more realistic framework for viewing investors and markets than does MPT.