Commentary

Bond Investors Underperformed Despite A Bull Market. Now What?

In our latest insight, we analyze the recent DALBAR study to determine how well (or not well) active fixed-income investors performed during the bull market and explain what we believe will be the best approach for fixed-income investing given the start of a pro-inflation paradigm shift.

Commentary

The Biggest Risk to Portfolios Today

To start, let’s discuss what diversification is and what it is not.

Commentary

The Start Of A New Investment Paradigm

The global economy seems to be significantly changing, yet investors remain very hesitant to alter their basic portfolio strategies. As they did around 2010, investors are using the old leadership as their portfolios’ core. We think this could be a mistake.

Commentary

These Are Not The Recession Signals You’re Looking For

The 2s10s curve is once again knocking on the door of becoming inverted (while some curves like the 3s10s and 5s10s already are), causing quite a stir among market watchers that recession is imminent. In his latest report, Michael Contopoulos examines the 2s10s yield curve movement leading up to the past 6 times the US economy slipped into a recession and discusses what could be different this time.

Commentary

Has The Bubble Already Deflated?

With the sell-off in bubble assets beginning to broaden out and accelerate this year, many pundits are suggesting the bubble has already deflated.

Commentary

The Fed’s “Put” Is Not What You Think It Is

We all love alliteration (hence, Rich’s favorite term to describe the Fed is “lily-livered”) but when it comes to the “Powell Put” or the “Powell Pivot,” we think investors need to understand the facts and intentions of the Federal Reserve before accepting a saying just because it rolls smoothly off the tongue.

Commentary

Aha! Interest Rates Do Matter

Investors have been spoiled by the trend in falling long-term interest rates over the past 40 years, but the economic backdrop is changing. Read our new report where we explain the concept of equity duration and analyze how interest rates, earnings, and the relationship between the two can impact equities.

Commentary

Defensive bubble stocks = umbrellas in a hurricane

In October, we published analysis demonstrating why it’s never too early to sell a bubble. Unsurprisingly, investors still seem reluctant to reduce their bubble exposure, preferring instead to move up in bubble quality.

In his latest report, Dan Suzuki shows that when a bubble collapses, everything in it goes down, including proven leaders and tomorrow's winners, regardless of valuation, beta or quality. Thus, the only way to protect from a bubble is to get as far away from it as you can.

Commentary

2022: Back to the Future

While the Fed has now dropped "transitory" from their communications, the US and global economies might indeed be in a transitory state, and the important investment question is transitioning to what? It seems highly unlikely the economy will return to its pre-pandemic state. In our year ahead outlook report, we highlight our views on the best investment opportunities for 2022, given our analysis of an economic transition during the coming year.

Commentary

A Symphony Out of Tune

With inflation surprising to the upside and lasting longer than most expect, we believe investors will need to rethink portfolio management and what it means to own a balanced portfolio. Michael Contopoulos's latest report addresses investors' many questions related to our view on inflation and its implications for the future.

Commentary

A World of Opportunity

Investors become myopic during bubbles. As we’ve repeatedly highlighted, it is exactly that narrow-mindedness that presents opportunities because investors ignore the broad range of potential investments outside the bubble. In this report, we outline the opportunities available outside of today's bubbles and analyze the fundamentals that support our views.

Commentary

Never Too Early to Sell a Bubble

When it comes to RBA's view that we're in a bubble, investors seem to fall into two camps- "duh" and "you just don't get it." But recognizing the bubble is only the first step in dealing with the bubble. In his latest report, Dan Suzuki analyzes historical performance data from the 2000 Tech Bubble to determine how early is too early to reduce exposure to bubble assets.

Commentary

Anatomy of a Bubble

We have become famous (or infamous) regarding our views that there is a bubble in long-duration assets. In this report, we investigate what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the interesting investment opportunities resulting from the bubble’s misallocation of capital.

Commentary

China vs. Brazil

Investors are increasingly looking outside developed countries for investment opportunities, but it’s important to remember that not all Emerging Market countries are the same. In this report, we compare the opportunities in China & Brazil.

Commentary

Momentum Investors Will Be Buying Energy and Materials in a Year

The global economy is changing, yet many investors seem to have static portfolios. RBA explains why we believe the current shift in market leadership will last longer than investors are expecting.