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Brexit: In All the Noise, Has That Much Changed?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 12/18/18

We believe markets are now broadly priced for an extended period of the status quo – where the current impasse remains, but the UK remains in the EU.

Corporate Reporting on the SDGs: Mapping a Sustainable Future
by Mike Amey, Niamh Whooley of PIMCO, 12/12/18

PIMCO has mapped the SDG sustainability reporting of 246 companies globally with the goal of encouraging enhanced disclosure.

How Markets May React to a Brexit Deal
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 11/15/18

We expect volatility as the process moves forward, along with a potential rise in UK sovereign yields and strengthening of the pound, though some Brexit-related risk premium is likely to remain.

What Investors Should Watch as Brexit Talks Heat Up
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/10/18

As we enter another period of accelerated Brexit negotiations, how can investors best navigate the next few weeks and months? Our assessment is that a number of U.K. assets have already priced in a significant chance of a disruptive Brexit, but there is scope for further moves in either direction, depending on the path the negotiations take.

SDG Bonds: Creating a World of Opportunity for Issuers and Investors
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 9/13/18

The UN Sustainable Development Goals provide the investment community, including bond issuers, with a framework for tackling long-term global challenges.

U.K. Outlook: It’s Not Just Brexit
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 7/26/18

We see key factors beyond Brexit affecting the medium-term economic outlook for the U.K.

ESG Investing and Fixed Income: The Next New Normal?
by Mike Amey, Gavin Power of PIMCO, 6/29/18

We believe the bond market is uniquely suited to both benefit from and provide finance for ESG-related (environmental, social and governance) efforts.

Bank of England: Is History Repeating Itself?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 4/23/18

The Bank of England has had to navigate a difficult set of circumstances in its attempts to raise interest rates. As far back as 2014, Governor Mark Carney suggested that rate rises could come “sooner than markets currently expect,” only for those aspirations to be dashed. Indeed, the next move in interest rates turned out to be a rate cut, in the aftermath of the June 2016 Brexit vote.

Issuer Engagement Is Crucial to the Future of Sustainable Investing
by Mike Amey, Niamh Whooley of PIMCO, 4/3/18

We believe that ESG investing is not only about partnering with issuers who already demonstrate a deeply integrated approach to ESG, but also about engaging with those who wish to move forward with their ESG initiatives. We believe that successful engagement can reduce credit risk, unlock value and influence positive impact.

Issuer Engagement Is Crucial to the Future of Sustainable Investing
by Mike Amey, Niamh Whooley of PIMCO, 3/29/18

We believe that ESG investing is not only about partnering with issuers who already demonstrate a deeply integrated approach to ESG, but also about engaging with those who wish to move forward with their ESG initiatives.

The Bank of England’s Dovish Hike
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 11/7/17

For the first time in over 10 years the Bank of England raised its official policy rate, a hike of 0.25% to 0.5%. The rationale is a combination of growth continuing at or slightly above trend, unemployment falling further from its current 42-year low...

Politics to Shape the UK’s Long‑Term Outlook
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 6/30/17

Just as the global economy faces a number of important pivot points that investors should look for over the next several years, so some domestically generated pivot points will shape the UK economy in the coming years – largely stemming from UK politics.

For the UK, Is the Real Risk Above- or Below-Target Inflation?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 5/25/17

In its recent quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England gave the market some fascinating insights into the challenges it will face in setting appropriate monetary policy over the coming years.

Brexit Begins: Implications for Investors
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 3/30/17

We caution investors on sterling and UK gilts as Brexit negotiations commence and the likelihood of a “hard Brexit” remains high.

UK Budget: No Alarms and No Surprises
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 3/9/17

The UK is about to enter a period of potential uncertainty, and the greatest gift the Chancellor can provide to the government is economic protection.

The Bank of England: How to Justify Doing Nothing
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 2/3/17

Ahead of Thursday’s quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faced a relatively tricky challenge.

Popularity Up, Pound Down: Brexit and Volatility
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/28/16

Since the Conservative Party Conference earlier this month, UK asset markets have become increasingly sensitive to the UK’s prospective trading arrangements post Brexit.

With Decisive Policy, Bank of England Stacks Odds in Its Favour
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 8/17/16
Look for very easy UK monetary policy to be with us for the cyclical horizon.

Brexit: What’s Next for Markets, the UK and the Global Economy
by Andrew Balls, Mike Amey, Philippe Bodereau of PIMCO, 6/30/16
In the following Q&A, portfolio managers Andrew Balls, Mike Amey, and Philippe Bodereau discuss PIMCO’s outlook for the UK and the European Union amid Brexit, and assess global ramifications.

Monetary Policy Stuck in the Mid?Atlantic
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 1/29/16
As we look forward to 2016, once again we are faced with the question of whether the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England (BOE) will finally raise interest rates, or whether this will prove to be another year where expectations for a move in official rates are to be dashed.

A Very British Recovery
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/8/15
The UK appears to be experiencing a typical British recovery, but needs further improvement to tolerate rising interest rates.

Navigating Divergent Global ILB Markets: Why Are UK Index-Linked Gilts Persistently Overvalued?
by Mihir Worah, Mike Amey, Berdibek Ahmedov of PIMCO, 9/8/15
Current extremely low and negative real yields on UK index-linked gilts, particularly for long-dated bonds, do not appear to have any fundamental justifications.

Forward Guidance Is Back at the Bank of England
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 5/21/15
The central bank seeks to reassure markets about its policy intentions and also stabilise gilt yields ahead of an anticipated rate hike in the U.S.

Will the UK Election Derail the Recovery?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 4/1/15
While the economic outlook for the UK is not without risk, most notably if there is an extended period of political paralysis, the UK recovery is much better shape than during the last general election in 2010 and should stay its course. We believe the benign inflationary backdrop will aid economic growth that saw GDP gains of 0.6% for the final quarter of 2014. In an environment of subdued underlying inflationary pressures and sterling appreciating relative to its major trading partners, the Bank of England can afford to wait to tighten monetary policy.

Can ECB Policy Heal Europe’s Ills?
by Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth, Lorenzo Pagani of PIMCO, 3/25/15
In this interview, Managing Directors Mike Amey, Andrew Bosomworth and Lorenzo Pagani discuss the conclusions from PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum in March 2015 and how they influence our European investment strategy. They also delve into the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet expansion on growth and inflation and reflect on Europe’s improving economic health.

Wait and See at the Bank of England
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 1/22/15
UK growth looks to be sustainable, with encouraging domestic demand, though we need to see business investment continue to pick up. Although inflation hovering below the 1% lower tolerance band of the Bank of England (BOE) remains a concern, we think it actually gives the central bank welcome breathing room during a period of uncertainty for the global economy. Looking ahead, we see compelling investment value in the intermediate part of the UK yield curve, namely five- to 10-year bonds, as the BOE plays the waiting game.

Is the UK Getting Back to Business as Usual??
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 10/13/14
In light of the generally buoyant economy, we may start to see more normal conditions returning to the UK labour market and, importantly, upward movement in wage growth over the cyclical horizon. In turn, these developments are critical for the conduct and timing of monetary policy and the behaviour of the Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee. We believe investors may want to treat the BOE's interest rate cycle with caution in shorter-maturity bonds, while valuations offer more protection in intermediate bonds given PIMCO's New Neutral thesis of secularly low real interest rates.

Is There a UK Housing Bubble????
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 5/29/14
We see the UK experiencing a very traditional monetary cycle involving lower mortgage rates, higher house prices and then hopefully higher transactions. The Bank of England can address rising house prices either by raising financing costs via the banking system or by raising interest rates. Markets will watch BoE activity closely. Our expectation is for a gradual and modest interest rate cycle, with low rates in the UK economy for years to come. Housing may be an overvalued asset, but one that is secularly supported by low rates.

Henny Pennies
by Tony Crescenzi, Mike Amey, Tadashi Kakuchi, Ben Emons of PIMCO, 4/28/14
While the Fed?s qualitative guidance may have increased uncertainties over monetary policy, volatility will likely remain contained by powerful short- and long-run forces related to the economic outlook. In the UK, we should at least respect the risk of a hike late in the first quarter of 2015, earlier than what is currently priced in. In Japan, we believe the BOJ will remain full throttle on its current monetary easing for some time.

A Sustainable Recovery??
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 3/27/14
Early signs indicate that the long awaited increase in business investment is underway. In turn, that bodes well for real income growth and the sustainability of the economic recovery. Given the improved economic prospects and the change in rhetoric at the Bank of England, the central bank could well be an early adopter of tighter monetary policy. We expect the BoE to hike rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve. While we beli?eve the British pound has already reflected the BoE?s guidance for official rates to rise by mid-2015, the bond market has yet to fully reflect the new environment. ?

A Much Better Dilemma
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 12/16/13
While the UK economy is likely to avoid reverting to growth levels of recent years, it must transition into a more durable recovery involving business investment, higher productivity and stronger real wages. However, headwinds for domestic demand look significant and the banking system appears to favour secured lending to consumers over businesses. We believe that much of the rise in bond yields is already behind us. With clearer value in shorter bonds, our preference lies in short and intermediate gilts.

UK Secular Outlook - Morphing into the Carney Era
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 5/30/13
The UK remains in a stable disequilibrium, one that needs to either transform into growing economy with narrowing income differentials or risk a more aggressive policy response. Financial repression, protection of real purchasing power, tail risks of accelerated currency weakness and price sensitivity will likely dominate UK markets over the secular horizon. Investors may consider progressively reducing exposure to assets susceptible to tail risks. Higher quality short-dated income-generating, inflation-hedging and non-sterling assets remain attractive.

What Happened to That Export-Led Recovery?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 3/27/13
With nearly 50% of the UKs total exports going to Europe, an economic area constantly flirting with its own recession, it is no surprise to see that UK trade performance has been challenged.As the US continues to re-heal, and trade becomes more geographically diversified, we should see exports start to grow once more, albeit off a modest base. The easing in sterling is undoubtedly welcome and will improve prospects for exports, but it is unlikely to be a game changer.

UK Perspectives: The Labour Market's Mixed Blessings
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 7/13/12
Although UK unemployment has held at a much lower level than in previous recessions, employment among workers under 25 has fallen significantly since 2008. There is already a whiff of stagflation about the UK economy, and we need to take steps to support youth employment before we end up with longer-term unemployed. In this environment, UK investors should seek inflation protection and exposure to countries and companies without stressed balance sheets or secular growth challenges.

Tomorrows Europe
by Andrew Balls, Andrew Bosomworth, Mike Amey of PIMCO, 6/4/12
Our secular view is that the status quo is not an option for the eurozone. In the near term, we believe it is more likely than not that Greece will exit the eurozone. While a Greek exit would likely be messy and volatile, our baseline view is that a smaller union will persist. To be sustainable, it will have to be underpinned by much stronger fiscal union, greater support for the banking system, and mutualization of debt to mitigate cross-border capital flight risks.

Whether the U.K. is in the Euro or Not, We Are All in This Together
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 11/22/11
Can the U.K. economy withstand a further sharp deterioration in the European debt crisis? The prospect of European recession, coupled with the U.K.'s program of tight fiscal policy, points to a challenging economic outlook for the U.K. A weak eurozone means weak export prospects at a time when the U.K. is trying to rebalance its economy towards greater exports. The U.K. economy has made great strides in stabilizing its banking system, but it is not yet in a position where it can withstand a systemic European crisis involving multiple defaults.

Can U.K. CPI Really Get Back to Its 2% Target?
by Mike Amey of PIMCO, 6/22/11
?U.K. CPI (Consumer Price Index) will likely continue to be buffeted by food and energy inflation. To generate the conditions necessary to bring inflation down more aggressively would put even greater pressure on U.K. households. The Bank of England is right to be cautious on raising the Bank rate given the current state of the economy.
37 results found.