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Carbon Cap‑and‑Trade: We See a Compelling Opportunity
by Nicholas Johnson, Klaus Thuerbach of PIMCO, 12/21/21

We see attractive investment opportunities in California’s cap-and-trade carbon emissions market.

Gold Still Shines Bright
by Nicholas Johnson of PIMCO, 8/24/20

Despite reaching record highs earlier this month, gold remains attractively valued, according to our framework.

Why Commodity Carry May Be Higher Than You Think
by Nicholas Johnson, Klaus Thuerbach of PIMCO, 8/24/18

In commodity investing, roll yield and carry are not the same thing.

REITs Revisited: A Closer Look at Tax Efficiency and Returns
by Ray Huang, Nicholas Johnson of PIMCO, 8/21/18

A fresh look at after-tax returns and valuations may cast REITs in a new light.

After OPEC Meetings, We See a Constructive Backdrop for Oil
by Greg Sharenow, Nicholas Johnson of PIMCO, 6/27/18

The recent OPEC meetings and press conference have given oil investors greater clarity about the cartel’s intentions and reaction function: OPEC, along with Russia and other partners, agreed to boost aggregate output by 700,000–1 million barrels per day.

Commodities Outlook 2018: Still Bright
by Greg Sharenow, Nicholas Johnson of PIMCO, 3/8/18

Everyone seems to be a commodities bull lately. PIMCO is no exception: Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook suggests an overweight to real assets, including commodities.

Oil Market Shifts From Contango to Backwardation: Implications for Investors
by Nicholas Johnson, Andrew Dewitt of PIMCO, 10/5/17

In recent weeks Brent crude oil, the global oil benchmark, has shifted into backwardation – a state when spot prices are higher than prices for futures contracts, creating a downward-sloping curve for futures prices.

Commodity Investing: A New Take on Equities Versus Futures
by Nicholas Johnson, Klaus Thuerbach of PIMCO, 7/6/16
A combination of commodity futures and broad stocks seems to provide better return per unit of risk than natural resource equities.

Commodity Outlook 2015: Watching the Supply Response Across Markets?
by Nicholas Johnson, Greg Sharenow of PIMCO, 1/29/15
Today?s low oil prices should allow for supply and demand to come back into alignment by year-end, led by a decline in the U.S. output growth rate and a modest increase in global demand. We expect continued oversupply to weigh on natural gas prices this year, but some semblance of balance may return to this market in 2016. Grain prices may experience pressure in 2015 as low oil prices pass through to corn prices, which may cause producers to switch to higher-priced crops. With production growth likely having peaked, we expect metals prices to stabilize this year.

The Crimean Conflict Has Affected Commodities Markets, Just Not Where You’d Expect
by Nicholas Johnson, Gillian Rutherford of PIMCO, 5/22/14
Since the end of February, when the Crimean crisis started to escalate, grain prices have responded to nearly every up and down of the crisis. Wheat is up 21%, and corn is up 10%. We believe investors looking to take a view on the future price of wheat or corn should do so through the options market. In this case, we think being long puts on wheat is an attractive way to implement our short wheat view.

Demystifying Gold Prices
by Nicholas Johnson of PIMCO, 1/28/14
What is it about gold prices? Many people seem to believe they are impossible to predict, or even understand. At her Senate confirmation hearing in November, Janet Yellen said, "I dont think anybody has a very good model of what makes gold prices go up or down." Ben Bernanke also said last year that "nobody really understands gold prices, and I dont pretend to understand them either." While many factors influence the price of gold, PIMCO believes there is one that can explain the majority of changes in gold prices over the past several years: changes in real yields.

U.S. Inflation Outlook 2014: Signs of Life
by Nicholas Johnson, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 1/15/14
We expect headline CPI to rise to around 2.0% year-over-year in 2014, with our base case oil forecast in the $105-$110 per-barrel range and expectations for food prices to be stable. PCE, in our view, will likely remain below the Feds 2% target, around 1.5%. Individuals will get some relief at the supermarket, but they will feel a pinch from landlords, who will likely raise rents.

Is the Commodity Supercycle Dead?
by Nicholas Johnson, Greg Sharenow of PIMCO, 9/18/13
While commodity price appreciation wont likely mirror the supercycle, this shouldnt necessarily imply a negative view on commodity returns going forward. We believe commodity prices are at reasonable levels from a long-term valuation perspective. In addition, the roll yield from investing in commodities is the highest its been since 2005. The outlook for commodity returns today seems broadly consistent with historical returns, and commodities remain an important tool for hedging inflation risk.

Inflation Regime Shifts: Implications for Asset Allocation
by Nicholas Johnson, Sebastien Page of PIMCO, 10/11/12
Investors who are concerned about inflation should focus on increasing their exposure to asset classes that provide a positive beta to changes in inflation. We believe that asset prices are much more sensitive to inflation surprises than actual inflation levels themselves. Given the current macro environment, investors face the possibility that low growth and high inflation may coexist. Commodities provide a levered response to inflation. Investors can hold a relatively small amount of commodities to hedge a much larger portfolio.
14 results found.