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Asset Allocation Views: Easing Into Slowing Growth
by Erin Browne, Geraldine Sundstrom, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 8/28/19

Read our key takeaways from our 2019 Asset Allocation Midyear Update, including how we are positioning multi-asset portfolios in light of our outlooks for the global economy and markets.

Asset Allocation Views: Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing
by Erin Browne, Geraldine Sundstrom, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 2/8/19

Here are key takeaways from our 2019 Asset Allocation Outlook on how we are positioning asset allocation portfolios in light of our outlook for the global economy and markets.

Asset Allocation Views: Late-Cycle Investing
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 9/11/18

Risk is rising late in the cycle. How should investors respond?

With Inflation Rising, Commodities May Shine
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 4/17/18

Many investors who thought worrying about inflation was “so 20th century” may now be seeing reasons to reconsider: The business cycle in the U.S. is mature, output gaps have closed, trade frictions are mounting and populism is on the rise.

Asset Allocation Views: Singles and Doubles
by Mihir Worah, Geraldine Sundstrom of PIMCO, 3/7/18

With market volatility on the rise, consider a broad set of relative value opportunities across global markets.

2018 Outlook: Looking Beyond Market Volatility
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 2/7/18

With the dramatic spike in market volatility over the past week, many investors are asking what comes next.

Asset Allocation Views: Preparing for Pivot Points
by Mihir Worah, Geraldine Sundstrom of PIMCO, 8/25/17

With critical policy pivots on the horizon, investors should approach asset allocation with full appreciation for downside risk and stay focused on relative value and security selection.

Preparing for Pivot Points
by Mihir Worah, Geraldine Sundstrom of PIMCO, 8/10/17

With critical policy pivots on the horizon, investors should approach asset allocation with full appreciation for downside risk and stay focused on relative value and security selection.

Deceptive Calm: Investing Globally in Stable But Not Secure Markets
by Mihir Worah, Geraldine Sundstrom of PIMCO, 8/24/16
As the year progresses, markets are displaying a strange dichotomy. Thirty percent of sovereign debt globally now offers negative yields, suggesting investors are increasingly focused on certainty and capital preservation even as several major central banks seek to stimulate growth and risk-taking.

Altitude Adjustment: Investing During a Period of Lower Returns and Higher Volatility
by Mihir Worah, Geraldine Sundstrom of PIMCO, 5/2/16
It can be difficult to adjust to the end of a good run. For years following the financial crisis of 2008, investors benefited from a rally in financial markets facilitated in part by expansionary policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe.

Navigating Divergent Global ILB Markets: Why Are UK Index-Linked Gilts Persistently Overvalued?
by Mihir Worah, Mike Amey, Berdibek Ahmedov of PIMCO, 9/8/15
Current extremely low and negative real yields on UK index-linked gilts, particularly for long-dated bonds, do not appear to have any fundamental justifications.

Inflation Outlook: Approaching Target
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 6/25/15
Over the next three to five years, PIMCO expects the global economy will continue along a New Neutral path in which major economies tend to drift along at modest growth rates. At our annual Secular Forum last month, our global investment professionals rigorously debated the longer-term, or secular, outlook for the global economy and markets, and the broad conclusions we reached are detailed in “The New Neutral Revisited.”

Still A Winning Hand
by Scott Mather, Mark Kiesel, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 11/21/14
The U.S. is finally enjoying a self-sustaining economic recovery, but slow global growth remains a concern and financial markets are bouncing up and down by the day. So what exactly does this U.S. recovery mean for investors?

Multi-Asset Investing: Is Now the Time for Emerging Market Equities?
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 6/2/14
Although emerging markets (EM) will continue to grow faster than developed markets (DM), we believe the difference may be lower than what has been seen over the last five years. Higher earnings yields in EM equities offer partial compensation for risks, but careful analysis is warranted to assess the true valuation differential. A modest allocation to EM equities may be warranted based on relative price-to-earnings multiples and our expectation that policy rates will stay lower for longer than markets expect, which makes higher-yielding EM assets more attractive.

U.S. Inflation Outlook 2014: Signs of Life
by Nicholas Johnson, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 1/15/14
We expect headline CPI to rise to around 2.0% year-over-year in 2014, with our base case oil forecast in the $105-$110 per-barrel range and expectations for food prices to be stable. PCE, in our view, will likely remain below the Feds 2% target, around 1.5%. Individuals will get some relief at the supermarket, but they will feel a pinch from landlords, who will likely raise rents.

Promise to Be Irresponsible
by Jeremie Banet, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 6/18/13
We believe the recent rise in real rates and fall in inflation expectations could jeopardize the U.S. economic recovery. We also believe these are a direct result of uncertainty about the Federal Reserves ultimate goal. Low real yields accompanied by sufficient nominal growth are the necessary prescription for a still ailing economy.

The New TIPping Point
by Jeremie Banet, Rahul Seksaria, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 10/11/12
The Federal Reserve's QE3 program combined with more aggressive communication are likely to have implications for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

Real Assets Replication: Solving the Capital Call Conundrum
by Andrew Hoffmann, Niels Pedersen, Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 8/3/12
Risk factors help to identify the fundamental value drivers of real assets and explain differences in the reported returns of public and private equity investments that hold substantially similar assets. By combining the fundamentals of real asset valuations with the statistical tools required to unlock the component risk factors of asset classes, it is possible to replicate the returns of private real asset investments using liquid publicly traded instruments.

Why Inflation Could Rise Over the Long Term
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 6/18/12
In developed markets, there is a serious debt problem, and inflation is one of the only "solutions" we see as likely to occur. We see a secular rise in global commodities prices, with some cyclical dips as the middle class expands in merging markets in the years ahead, consuming more commodities. Structuring portfolios in an attempt to guard against high inflation should be a central element of any investment strategy.

TIPS for Value Investors: Whos Afraid of Negative Yields?
by Jeremie Banet and Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 4/27/12
Why wasnt the recent TIPS auction a blockbuster among Main Street investors? We believe they were frightened away by the -1.08% real yield. We would argue that the negative real yields that are explicit in TIPS also represent the implicit discount rate for ALL financial assets in the U.S. Moving away from TIPS into nominal yield is a bet on inflation being less than 2% for the next five years and less than 2.25% for the next 10 years a pretty bold bet!

TIPS for Financial Repression
by Mihir Worah of PIMCO, 1/30/12
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities got a boost last week after the Fed extended the period of time it is likely to maintain unusually easy monetary policy and moved toward adopting a formal inflation target of 2% for the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. Bernanke said that the central bank was likely to allow deviations from this target if employment was not where the Fed thinks it should be. We think financial repression is likely to persist and real interest rates are likely to be lower than recent history would suggest for the foreseeable future.
21 results found.