Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
The global economy continues to recover from pandemic aftershocks, including trade dislocations, outsize monetary and fiscal interventions, a prolonged inflation surge, and bouts of severe financial market volatility. At PIMCO’s 2024 Secular Forum, we explored how the aftereffects of those disruptions are producing some unexpectedly positive developments while introducing longer-term risks.
The global investment landscape is set to be transformed in the months ahead as the trajectories of major economies diverge more noticeably.
Our September Cyclical Forum was the first to be held in London, where the economic situation today reflects what’s happening around the world.
The first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt.
History suggests the lagged economic effects of tighter central bank policy are arriving on schedule, but any eventual normalizing or even easing of policy will still likely require inflation to decline further.
After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.
This is a critical time for investors and policymakers alike.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions response, and the gyrations in commodity markets cast an even thicker layer of uncertainty on what already was an uncertain economic and financial market outlook before the onset of this horrific war.
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
Three transformative trends will lead the world into a radically different macro environment over the secular horizon. Read our long-term outlook and implications to consider when investing.
Over the past few months, economic recoveries have been uneven across regions and sectors.
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
Global output and demand are likely to rebound strongly in 2021, but we see risks that call for careful portfolio positioning.
The pandemic has amplified four long-term macroeconomic disruptors, and fiscal policy – a key swing factor – may hold the key to upside or downside surprises. Read our long-term outlook and learn implications to consider when investing.
Our baseline economic forecast is a U-shaped global recovery, but substantial unknowns remain.
The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.
In a nutshell, we concluded that the global economy is about to enter a low-growth “window of weakness,” which we expect to persist going into 2020 with heightened uncertainty about whether it is a window to recovery or recession.
Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.
We believe short-term interest rates in the U.S. are now anchored in The New Neutral, as global growth keeps synching lower.
We see a synchronized global slowdown in 2019. We position cautiously but anticipate opportunities ahead.
We see growth slowing, but not an imminent recession. We invest accordingly.
We expect a more difficult market environment will surprise many investors as the post-crisis era ends. It’s time to position for the opportunities ahead.
We expect the global expansion to continue in 2018. Yet investors should prepare for both the consequences of policy shifts and the opportunities presented in more difficult market conditions.
We see three risks to the outlook for steady economic growth. Yet we also see opportunities for investors to target above-benchmark returns while emphasizing defense at a time of low volatility and full valuations.
With the probability of recession sometime in the next five years around 70% in our view, now may be a critical time to prepare for when the cyclical tailwind that began last year begins to fade. Over the next five years, the global economy may undergo five significant pivots in the direction and scope of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. Are investors too optimistic about the future economy? We address this and other crucial questions in PIMCO’s 2017 Secular Outlook – our long-term view for the global economy and markets.
We expect the global economic expansion to strengthen and broaden over the cyclical horizon, but with improved growth and inflation prospects, central banks may scale back accommodation.
We assess three global economic scenarios for 2017.
