After a strong run in emerging markets through the first nine months of 2017, a recent performance setback in local bond markets has led some investors to fear that the recovery cycle may be short-circuiting. Is the two-month run of underperformance in EM local markets an opportunity or a canary in a coal mine?
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to begin the process of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. Here’s what it may mean for investors.
The use of credit to fuel growth in China is weakening, a trend that has begun to depress demand for imports. Given China’s seminal role as an engine of global growth, the ripple effects will weigh on growth prospects for the countries most exposed to Chinese demand, including those in Asia and Latin America.
Bond investors are from Mars, and central bankers are from Venus – or so suggests the bond market’s negative reaction to signals that the exceptional monetary policy accommodation of the last decade is winding down. Risk-asset markets, however, are ignoring the red flags that the bond markets are waving. Are they right?
Five years ago this week, Mario Draghi’s landmark “whatever it takes” speech turned the tide of the euro crisis, the president effectively clarifying the European Central Bank’s role as a conditional lender of last resort to eurozone sovereign borrowers.
Why falling commodity prices may not upend the EM rally.
By focusing so intensely on U.S. political developments, investors risk missing a silent shift in what has arguably been the strongest driver of global reflation in the last five years:...
While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.
For much of 2016, a unique alignment of push and pull factors has driven strong performance in emerging markets (EM). The election of Republican Donald Trump and Republican majorities in the U.S. Congress on 8 November, however, represents a pivot point.