Why is the U.S. housing sector diminishing when demand for housing remains robust?
Twenty years ago, the world was standing on the brink of the Asian Financial Crisis. Here, Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab looks at how the response of local policymakers in the subsequent two decades has impacted emerging markets in general.
Equity market peaks (and troughs) are impossible to identify in advance. But this doesn’t mean that equity investments should simply be “set it and forget it.”
You may have heard about bitcoin. Spurred on by breathtaking price runups, some clients may even have asked you if they should invest in them, or if it’s safe to buy them and use them to make payments. Most likely you dismissed the whole thing as some sort of a tulip bubble. But it’s not as simple as that.
Many investors who lived through the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 still might bear some scars, according to Franklin Templeton’s annual Retirement Income Strategies and Expectations (RISE) survey. The survey explores individuals’ attitudes and expectations about retirement and how prepared people feel regarding their future.
As history demonstrates, conformity to the irrational can and often does persist beyond conceivable limits, yet incoherence of behavior is not sustainable indefinitely.
It has become conventional wisdom that underperformance is due to the irrational investment behavior of individuals. For the creation and propagation of this conventional wisdom, we have DALBAR to thank. Now that Wade Pfau has shown that DALBAR’s research is likely to be worthless because it calculates its numbers wrong, it is time to question whether the conventional wisdom has even a scintilla of meaning.
Despite some uncertainties, economic improvements in developed and emerging markets have supported a positive mood across both equity and fixed income this year.
The Trump bump reveals market expectations of continuing public policies prioritizing stability, inhibiting creative destruction, depressing yields and wage growth, and inflating a profits bubble. If instead, the Administration delivers reforms that allow creative destruction, invigorate growth and raise returns to capital and wages, then the lofty profits of corporate incumbents will be at risk.
How is it possible that stock market bubbles are so obvious after they burst, but are almost never identified in advance – except by what seem, after the fact, to have been a highly perspicacious few? A new study found that there is a way to tell before it bursts that the market, or a segment thereof, is in a bubble. But profiting from an investment strategy designed to exploit bubbles is incredibly difficult.