The Sentier Research median household income data for March, released this morning, came in at $58,673. The nominal median fell by $41 month-over-month and is up $1,545 year-over-year. In percentages, the latest month is down 0.1% MoM and is up 2.7% YoY. Adjusted for inflation, the latest month is up $128 MoM and up $183 YoY. The real numbers equate to changes of 0.2% MoM and 0.3% YoY.
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2017
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly marginal gain of 0.91% after a fractional loss of 0.04% in March. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and two of the five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) — are signaling "invested".
The Federal Reserve System consists of twelve Federal Reserve Banks, twenty-five branches, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each bank serves a larger regional district. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The average of the five for April is 19.8, down fractionally from last month's 19.9.
Earlier today we learned that the Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 0.7%, down from 2.1% in Q3. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.05%. The adjacent chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 0.7% (0.69% to two decimal places), a dramatic decrease over 2.1% in the Q4 Third Estimate and also a decline from 1.4% in Q1 2016 GDP. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.2%.
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.2, down 1.0 from the previous week and the lowest since December 9th. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 7.19%, down from 7.93% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 5.9, also down from the previous week.
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading came in at 23.2, down from the previous week.
The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for April came in at 97.0, up fractionally from the March Final reading of 96.9. Investing.com had forecast 98.0.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose slightly in April to a value of 58.3 from last month's 57.7, beating the Investing.com forecast. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.