As of May 23, the price of Regular and Premium were up ten and eleven cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.05 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $4.02. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 110.29 and is down 1.9% from last week.
This morning's release of the April New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 591K, down 16.6% month-over-month from 709K in March. The Investing.com forecast was for 750K. The median home price is now at $450.6K.
Fifth District manufacturing activity declined in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index stood at -9 in May compared to 14 in April.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through May 23, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD gain of 1.75%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in second with a loss of 6.22% and India's BSE SENSEX is in third with a loss of 6.81%. Coming in last is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 16.63% YTD.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.47 in April from +0.36 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in April, and three categories improved from March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to +0.48 in April from +0.49 in March.
The S&P 500 has been in correction territory for over 12 market days and is nearing bear market territory (defined as 20% off a record high). The index is 18.66% below its record high and is down 18.14% YTD.
April's ZHVI came in at $344,141, up 1.6% from the previous month and up 20.9% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 1.2% MoM and 15.4% YoY.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 152.4, down 4.1 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -1.2, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at -2.04%, down from last week.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April was down 0.3% from the March final figure of 119.2.
This morning's release of the April Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units from the previous month's 5.75 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.65 million. The latest number represents a 2.4% decrease from the previous month and a 5.9% decrease YoY.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 2.6, down 15 from last month's 17.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 15.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 2.5, down from the previous month's 8.2.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 218K new claims, up 21K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 200K.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is down 3.3% month-over-month.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.724M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.765M and a 0.2% decrease from the previous month's 1.728M. Annual revisions were made.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.819M was down 3.2% from the March reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.812M. Annual revisions were made.
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
This morning's report on Industrial Production for April shows a 1.08% increase month-over-month, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.5%. The year-over-year change is at 6.5%, up from last month's YoY increase. Annual revisions were made.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.9% month-over-month to two decimals and was at the Investing.com forecast. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.6% MoM. Annual revisions were made.
We've updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $46,240, down 8.0% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the April 29, 2022 close.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -11.6 was a decrease of 36.2 from the previous month's 24.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 17.0.
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from the latest Employment Report for April. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The May Preliminary Report came in at 59.1, down 6.1 (9.4%) from the April Final. Investing.com had forecast 64. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 31.1 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 30.3 percent below the geometric mean.
This morning's release of the April Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 2.1% change last month. It is at 15.6% year-over-year, up from a 15.3% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.8 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
With the Q4 GDP Third Estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
The latest full set UIG for April is 4.86% while the prices-only measure is 5.79%. Current Headline CPI is now 8.26% and Core CPI is 6.16%.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 428K.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.26%, down from 8.54% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.16%, down from 6.47% the previous month.
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
The headline number for April came in at 93.2, unchanged from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 428K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 362K service-providing jobs and a gain of 66K goods-producing jobs.
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. April saw 428K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 391K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.5%.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q1 2022.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 6, 2022, at 3.12%, the 2-year note ended at 2.72%, and the 30-year at 3.23%.
This morning's employment report for April showed a 428K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 391K jobs added. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,522 for an annualized real return of 11.3%.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
Here's the latest on the largest cryptocurrencies by market share.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Note: This update includes April close data.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the April Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 57.1 percent, down 1.2 from 58.3 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 58.5 percent.
The April US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.6 percent, down slightly from the final March estimate of 58.0.
This morning we have the ADP April estimate of 247K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, a decrease over the ADP revised March figure of 479K.
Quick take: At the end of April the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 151% above its long-term trend, down from 156% above the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through March, is now available.