The latest new orders number at 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) was above the Investing.com consensus of 1.2%. The series is up 5.0% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods came in at 0.4% MoM, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.5%. The core measure is up 4.6% YoY.
Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau's monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index for All Commodities, chained in today's dollar value.
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.6, down 0.8 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 10.96%, down from 11.76% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 9.0, also down from the previous week.
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading came in at 29.5, down 2.9 from the previous week.
The latest index came in at 20.0, up from last month's 12.0, which indicates continued improving activity. The future outlook increased to 32.0 from 29.0 last month - currently its highest ever in the series. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
This morning's release of the February New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 592K, up 6.1% month-over-month from a revised 558K in January. Seasonally adjusted estimates for November and December were also revised. The Investing.com forecast was for 565K.
Today's seasonally adjusted 258K new claims, up 15K from last week's number, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 240K. Revisions were made to annual seasonal adjustment factors along with revisions going back to 2012 to the initial and continuing claims seasonal factors.
The Philly Fed's Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
This morning's release of the February Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million units from 5.69 million in January. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.57 million. The latest number represents a 3.7% decrease from the previous month and a 5.4% increase year-over-year.
Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries as the Fed's rate hike last week. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.40%, down 11 basis points from last week and the 30-year bond closed at 3.02%. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 1.13%.