Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.

With the backdrop of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines in addition to the shifting narratives of the election season, we have been focusing on what we are calling the Great Normalization as overall economic trends in the U.S. are getting back to normal.

Discussion about more political oversight or political control of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) occasionally heats up. We are seeing more of this type of discourse today as the election approaches. In our view, limited Fed independence could prove disastrous.

In an election year, we are bound to hear a lot of commentary about the merits and drawbacks of both major candidates’ economic policies. History shows that while a president’s policies can make life easier or more difficult for various sectors of the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy has much more impact on the economy overall.

In terms of manufacturing, value added, which is basically the value of the output minus the costs of the input, the U.S. produces almost twice as much as Japan, more than three times as much as Germany, and five times as much as India.