Early last year, critics — and there were many — said the Fed was woefully behind the curve on inflation, and that the only way it could win the battle was to push the economy into a damaging recession by raising interest rates very high, very fast.
With its $33.7 trillion debt and trillion-dollar budget deficit, the US’s deteriorating fiscal situation is impossible to ignore. To simply balance the budget, a 29% across-the-board cut in spending would be necessary, even if the tax cuts enacted by the Trump administration are allowed to expire at the end of 2025.
The US economy just enjoyed its strongest quarterly growth outside of the pandemic era since 2014, expanding at a 4.9% annualized rate in the three months ended Sept. 30.
You won’t find this term in any serious economics textbook, but the only clinical way to describe the US housing market is bananas. Affordability is at record lows and mortgage rates are the highest since 2000.
Economists are playing a game of “can-you-top-this this,” seeing who can ramp up their US economic growth forecasts the most.
US household finances have reached a milestone by accumulating $1 trillion in credit card debt, which comes with an average interest rate of 20.6%.
The consumer price index report for July showed the smallest back-to-back monthly increase in two years. This is welcome news in the battle to tame inflation but the even better news was buried deep in the report.
The latest monthly US jobs report showed a moderation in employment growth, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates. Not so fast, say the monetary policy hawks such as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
There is next to zero chance the government won’t be able to pay its creditors and the Treasury Department’s access to funding is determined by forces far more fundamental than a few capital letters tied to a ratings report.
The highest rates of inflation in 40 years and the response by central banks around the world to aggressively raise interest rates have created an unfamiliar double-edged sword for both businesses and households.
The US Federal Reserve is under pressure to stop raising interest rates lest it plunge the entire world into recession. This concern is not unfounded.
When Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell speaks in Jackson Hole later this week, he will have no shortage of critics lying in wait to vivisect his every remark.