While the danger of a downturn has risen as growth has slowed, most economists argue a contraction is unlikely in the immediate future, given the continued strength of the jobs market and the more than $2 trillion in excess cash on household balance sheets.
The US economy is starting to show signs of strain under the weight of decades-high inflation and climbing interest rates -- raising the risk of a downturn.
Deep-seated trends in trade and demographics helped keep inflation in a comfort zone for decades, but both are now pushing in the opposite direction. Globalization was fraying even before pandemic and war made things worse. Growth in the world’s labor force has slowed.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are on the march to return ultra-loose monetary policy and accommodative financial conditions to more normal levels. The trouble is, their destination is uncertain and the terrain may be shifting as they forge forward with higher interest rates.
While the U.S. has limited trade ties with Russia and Ukraine, businesses from beer breweries in Missouri to semiconductor plants in California would see an impact, as prolonged combat and even harsher sanctions constrict supplies and drive up global prices for oil and other critical materials.
A historic surge in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming on top of already-high pandemic inflation, has gotten investors and economists searching for parallels with the energy shocks of four decades ago and the prolonged slowdowns that followed.
Two prominent U.S. economists from opposite ends of the political spectrum say the federal government should provide cash to consumers squeezed by soaring inflation and surging energy costs.
Oil’s surge to $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 represents a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation. That’s a worrying combination for the U.S. Federal Reserve and fellow central banks as they seek to contain the strongest price pressures in decades without derailing recoveries from the pandemic.
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure lawmakers and investors on Tuesday that the central bank can pull off the tricky task of bringing down four-decade high inflation without damaging the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve has managed to do something that’s rarely seen in the U.S. these days: Get members of the Democratic and Republican parties to agree.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned of the risk of a “spontaneous deflating of financial markets” that have been pumped up by retail buying and exuberant investors.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says controlling inflation expectations is key to achieving the central bank’s twin goals of price stability and maximum employment.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues appear to be winning over investors with the argument that the current surge in consumer prices won’t last.
The economist who helped change the way the Federal Reserve assesses long-run inflation expectations says their current level means the central bank needs to start laying the groundwork for shrinking its massive bond-buying program.
In making the case for a mammoth $1.9 trillion economic relief package, President Joe Biden and his acolytes had maintained that economists across the board agreed that now is the time to go big in the fight against the pandemic.
Declaring that the battle against Covid-19 is not over, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pledged to keep the monetary spigots wide open to aid the pandemic-hit economy, brushing aside concerns the super-easy stance will spawn a stock market bubble and too-high inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads into what could be his last year atop the central bank determined not to repeat the mistake he made when he was a neophyte monetary policy maker seven years ago.
Janet Yellen invoked an enduring era of low interest rates in delivering the Biden administration’s opening argument to lawmakers for its $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief proposal.
The world economy will be exiting the pandemic weighed down by much bigger debts and increased inequality that could hobble growth in the longer term.
President-elect Joe Biden wants to reverse the decades-long trend that has seen workers get an ever smaller piece of the economic pie.
The Federal Reserve is warning that asset prices in key markets could still take a hit if the coronavirus pandemic’s economic impact worsens in coming months.
The Federal Reserve and other central banks will eventually discover that breaking up isn’t easy after partnering with their governments and the financial markets to avert a pandemic-driven depression.
The Federal Reserve looks likely to keep short-term interest rates near zero for five years or possibly more after it adopts a new strategy for carrying out monetary policy.
Jerome Powell set aside his usual reticence about commenting on fiscal policy and urged lawmakers to come up with further measures to support the economy.
Getting factories to reopen is one thing. Persuading consumers to go out to shop, eat, travel or watch sports is another.