Existing-home sales in the US topped a rate of 4 million in November for the first time in six months as house hunters begrudgingly accept mortgage rates above 6%.
Contract closings increased 4.8% to an annualized rate of 4.15 million in November, the most since March, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. That beat the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected a rate of 4.09 million.
“Home sales momentum is building,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement. While mortgage rates are still elevated, consumers are getting more comfortable with the current level and job creation is strong, he said on a call with reporters.
November’s improvement aside, the market for previously owned homes has been stagnant with annual sales hovering around 4 million homes for the past two years, a ho-hum level that’s just three-quarters the pre-pandemic trend. That’s been due in part to a historic shortage of homes for sale as owners refuse to list their properties and give up their existing 3% mortgage rates, which in turn has driven up prices.
Yun said annual home sales are on pace to come in even lower than last year, which was the worst since 1995.
Slowly but surely, inventories have started rising this year as sellers come to terms with today’s high borrowing costs. While supply slipped last month from October — which Yun said is typical for this time of year — it was still notably higher than last November.
“As we plunge into winter, the long-awaited thaw in the existing home market has finally begun,” Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email. “Rising inventories and pent-up demand have nudged buyers off the sidelines, though high prices and relatively high mortgage rates will keep a ceiling on sales.”
Affordability Challenge
Affordability remains a major hangup. The median sale price of a previously owned home increased 4.7% from a year earlier to $406,100 last month, a record for the month of November. And while the Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point since September, mortgage rates remain twice their level from year-end 2021 and are expected to stay above 6% for at least another two years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Home financing costs for a 30-year fixed-rate contract were 6.75% in the week ended Dec. 13, per MBA data. Treasury yields — which influence mortgage rates — spiked Wednesday after the Fed’s final meeting of 2024, in which central bankers forecast fewer rate cuts next year.
Speaking after the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said activity in the housing sector has been weak. He also said housing inflation is cooling, but slower than hoped.
In November, 53% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 59% in October, while 18% sold for above the list price. Properties stayed on the market for 32 days on average, compared with 29 days in the previous month.
Existing-home sales account for the majority of the US total and are calculated when a contract closes. The government will release figures on new-home sales on Tuesday.
Digging Deeper
Contract closings increased in three of four US regions, led by a 8.5% jump in the Northeast
Sales of single-family homes rose 5% in November to the fastest pace since March; purchases of condominiums and co-ops also climbed
Individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 13% of homes, compared with 17% in October. All-cash transactions dipped slightly
First-time buyers made up 30% of purchases. NAR’s annual report showed the share was 24% for all of 2024, the lowest on record
Sales increased 5% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis
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