If you are tiring of the green energy revolution and can’t quite get on board with the mission to Mars, yet still would like to join a worthy cause with the potential to transform millions of lives, allow me to make a recommendation: transparent hospital pricing.
When I first read about the discovery of a vast new deposit of lithium in a volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border, I can’t say that I was surprised.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to greatly enhance human capabilities and improve lives. But the implications are far-reaching and not fully understood. In this episode of The Active Share, Hugo sits down with Tyler Cowen, best-selling author, podcast host, and Holbert L. Harris chair of economics at George Mason University, for a conversation about the impact of AI on labor, capital, business models, and global connectivity.
We seem to be in what I can only call an “AI lull.” The initial excitement about ChatGPT, which started in January, has receded. Google searches for ChatGPT peaked in April and are now down significantly, as is customer engagement with ChatGPT.
Argentina’s leading presidential candidate, Javier Milei, has some unorthodox ideas about policy (he wants to abolish central banks), politics (he is libertarian) and pets (he has five cloned dogs). One of his proposals, however, is simple common sense: dollarizing Argentina’s economy.
It is a radical suggestion, no doubt, but some analysts predict that AI might enable the US economy to achieve an annual growth rate of 30%.
By the end of the five-year deal that the United Parcel Service and its drivers just agreed to, full-time drivers will make about $170,000 a year, counting healthcare coverage and other benefits. That’s up from $145,000 currently.
Is it possible for economic news to be a little too good? If many economic worries seem to be dwindling, is that reason to be scared? After periods of success, are economies due for a comeuppance — perhaps even for reasons stemming from their earlier achievements?
Everyone can be happy about the recently reported decline in the US inflation rate, but how and why did it fall so quickly without causing a recession on the way down?
One way to deal with the current global economic uncertainty is to search for consistent and reliable indicators to help you navigate the chaos. Another way is to focus on some time-honored verities about savings and human capital.
During the postwar Bretton Woods years, the price of gold was pegged at $35 an ounce, but after Richard Nixon severed the dollar’s final link to gold in 1971, prices soared to more than $800 an ounce by 1980.
The notion that central banks should set an inflation target higher than 2% has longstanding support among many economists, including former chief IMF economist Olivier Blanchard, and has remained persistent even amid efforts to bring inflation down.
Remember Web 3.0? No? Allow ChatGPT to refresh your memory: Web 3.0, according to GPT-4, is “the next frontier in internet technology, characterized by decentralized, user-centric applications that prioritize data privacy and foster seamless, interconnected experiences.”
Big business has been a fixture of American life since the late 19th century, and today more Americans work for big companies than for small ones. That could be about to change — in part because of the rise of artificial intelligence.
There are a lot of dramatic and profound questions about AI, but some of the most important ones are mundane. For instance: Should AI agents, when they perform productive work, be required to pay taxes?
With all that extra intelligence, there will be a need and a desire to undertake many new projects, ranging from innovative theatrical productions to more efficient and densely packed solar panels. These new projects could also herald a world of much cheaper and greener energy, which would further increase humankind’s ability to manipulate the natural environment. Land will thus become more valuable.
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
It is possible, contrary to the predictions of most economists, that the US will get through this disinflationary period and make the proverbial “soft landing.”
Artificial intelligence advances in a manner that’s hard for the human mind to grasp.
The collapse of FTX and the charges against Sam Bankman-Fried have brought many renewed calls for crypto regulation, from both commentators and legislators.
The research is clear: Americans are becoming less generous over the holidays. Not to sound too much like a Scrooge, but this is not necessarily a bad thing.
Will AI save crypto?
The standard Keynesian doctrine is to run a budget surplus in good times, and then use deficit spending to stimulate the economy in bad times.
To learn how an economist really thinks, ask them which mainstream economic idea bugs them most.
This year has brought a lot of innovation in artificial intelligence, which I have tried to keep up with, but too many people still do not appreciate the import of what is to come. I commonly hear comments such as, “Those are cool images, graphic designers will work with that,” or, “GPT-3 is cool, it will be easier to cheat on term papers.” And then they end by saying: “But it won’t change my life.”
Florida’s response to Hurricane Ian illustrates how governments are making it harder to adjust to climate change by subsidizing the insurance market.
Currently, the most underrated theory in economics is the so-called Quantity Theory of Money. It has been out of fashion for a long time, and even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that a strong money-price connection has not held for at least 40 years.
This week’s unexpected rise in US inflation is an opportunity to revisit an old debate, which is often a useful exercise. This current bout of inflation has its roots in mistaken assumptions made a decade ago.
If 2021 was the breakthrough year for mRNA vaccines, then 2022 may be the breakthrough year for artificial intelligence.
Debate has swirled over President Joe Biden’s student loan-forgiveness plan, but there has been relatively little consideration of some of its longer-run ramifications.
2022 may be remembered as the year when living standards in the US truly pulled away from those in Western Europe. One concrete piece of evidence is the collapse of the euro to parity with the dollar, or lower yet, but there is also a more general sense that the gap is widening.
The recent Democratic bill on climate and taxes increases the funding for the Internal Revenue Service by an additional $80 billion over 10 years, with the purpose of collecting more revenue by enforcing existing tax laws.
Tyler will answer audience questions about what the future holds for global economies.
Currently, the electric vehicle market is bumping into some constraints on the supply side.
Have we reached peak social media?
One of the most common criticisms of cryptocurrency is that it is just a way to get around financial rules and regulations.
US price inflation is at 9.1% and a there is a fiercely strong dollar, a pair of statistics that was certainly unexpected a year ago and even now seems odd.
Before I begin, please note: I am not a pessimist. I am not short the market, and I think the world is far more likely to muddle through than to fall apart. Nonetheless, I now believe the future will be far more irresponsible and stupid than I once did.
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
Technology stocks have taken a deep dive, blue-chip stocks are ailing, stablecoins aren’t stable, and don’t even ask about traditional crypto. Art markets, however, are alive and well — and it’s worth asking why.
The green energy revolution is making greater progress than expected. Solar and wind power have seen exponential cost declines, and electric vehicles seem to be a market winner. That’s all good news, but improving green energy is not the same as addressing climate change. There is good chance that even optimistic projections for green energy will come true — and carbon emissions will continue to increase.
The pandemic has prompted a rethinking of many practices and routines of professional life, such as working from home, meetings and interviewing online. Now another such pastime is ripe for a reassessment: the face-to-face conference.
Crypto markets still have many puzzles, but they are beginning to reveal their secrets. The last few months of chaos show what Bitcoin and other crypto assets are good for: They are advanced tools of globalization, luxury goods for complex, well-functioning markets — not protections against the depredations of hostile governments.
Wartime reporting typically focuses on troops in combat, civilians in the crossfire or, sometimes, the effect of sanctions. But behind the scenes more decentralized mechanisms are exerting their influence, often based on economic logic. These forces are mostly working against Russia and for Ukraine.
Sometimes yesterday’s crazy idea turns out to be sane or even essential. For instance, Fischer Black, the late finance economist and co-discoverer of modern options pricing theory, argued that the rate of price inflation will be whatever we think it will be.
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
TikTok is now the most popular website in the world, by one measure, and as such its influence on how young people see and think about themselves is attracting ever more attention. I am an economist, so I would like to focus on a considerably more narrow subject: what TikTok’s videos say about how young people see and think about economics.
To envision the future of crypto, I keep trying different analytical tools. This time around the concept of relevance is focality, by which I mean the part of the system at which consumers direct their attention.
“The Beatles: Get Back” documentary, which is my pick for best movie of the year, showcases an underappreciated aspect of Paul McCartney: He’s more than just an artistic genius — he’s one of the greatest managerial talents of the last century.
