M2 Slowdown Finally Gaining Traction

The lags between a shift in monetary policy and the economic impact are long and variable. While the actions of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic were unprecedented, it finally looks like the excess money pumped into the economy has worked its way through the system. And with the M2 measure of the money supply down from its peak, the economy is reacting.

This measure of the money supply surged in 2020-21 in the first two years of COVID as the government massively increased deficit spending and enacted temporary tax cuts that didn’t improve the long-term incentives to work, save, and invest. The resulting spike in inflation in 2021-22 certainly didn't surprise us, and it should not have surprised anyone else.

Yet it did. Many went out of their way to find other things to blame for inflation. They ignored M2, and blamed “Putin” or “supply chains” and called inflation “transitory.”
Sure, some prices were boosted by the lockdowns and war, but that was only a small fraction of the problem. If it was the whole problem or most of it, we wouldn’t be sitting here more than four years later with the consumer price index up 3.0% from a year ago. If it were all “transitory,” we should have seen a widespread drop in consumer prices, and that didn’t happen.

The Fed itself continues to ignore the money supply. Fed officials never bring up the topic on their own and reporters rarely if ever ask about it. And on the rare occasion when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is asked about the money supply, he goes out of his way to say it’s not something the Fed pays much attention to.