Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation. We caution against extrapolating too much from strong near-term activity data amid a powerful restart. We see a high bar for the Fed to change its policy stance and believe this may be underappreciated by markets.
A powerful economic restart is underway in the U.S. – with Europe and emerging markets (EMs) set to follow.
Scott explains why we have downgraded emerging market local debt to neutral even as its valuation has cheapened.
Scott explains how the extraordinary outbreak-fighting policy action – and recent market turbulence – has changed our view on credit.
We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls.