Despite progress on bringing down inflation from mid-2022 highs, data from online job postings suggests that wage pressures may be reaccelerating. Beneath the surface, growing divergence in wage gains across occupation categories may be adding a layer of complexity to the outlook for labor markets.
So far in 2023, equity markets have shrugged off banking stress, recession risk, and monetary tightening in favor of a more optimistic view. While risks remain, alternative data suggests that inflation may fall faster than expected as the economy remains relatively healthy.
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The sudden collapse of two US regional banks and the forced acquisition of Credit Suisse in Europe introduced a third dimension to the existing policy dilemma of balancing inflation and growth objectives: financial stability.
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.