Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in February rose 0.39% and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when we adjust for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) was reduced to a 0.26% monthly increase. The real number is up 2.6% year-over-year.
The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for February, released today, shows that core inflation remains below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.75%. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through January, is higher at 2.22%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge. Headline inflation for both series is conspicuously lower, largely a result of low energy costs.
With the release of today's report on January Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.13% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.73% nominal and 1.57% real. The trend since 2013 has been one of steady growth.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for February was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index rose 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 2.12% year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.19% MoM and 1.75% YoY. Core PCE remains below the Fed's 2% target rate.
Children eventually reach an age when they outgrow the need or desire for an elaborately staged birthday party. In the case of a certain bull born back in March 2009, that age appears to be eight.
Don’t tell The Donald, but the stock market doesn’t take him seriously. The market took JFK seriously. In April 1962, Kennedy clashed with steel companies. The S&P 500 plummeted 24% over the next two months as the confrontation continued.
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains for the holiday-shortened final week of 2016. India's SENSEX was the top performer with its 2.25% advance, followed closely by Hong Kong's Hang Seng, up 1.97%. But it was the third place finisher that commands the spotlight. The UK's FTSE rose 1.06% for the week and ended the year with three consecutive record closes.
The advance since March 2009 has just surpassed the bull market of 1990-1998 to become the second longest bull of all time, and it will move into the top spot if it can survive until next March 15th (the “Ides of March”). Intrigued by this market’s similarities with the 1990s, we updated a study that reinforces a point we’ve made for a while: Among the six major measures examined here, the stock market looks least overvalued on the basis of the S&P 500 5-Yr. Normalized P/E.
The results of last night’s election are no doubt worthy of an Economic Update
We’ve annoyed a few media outlets by admitting to having no clue as to which of the presidential candidates would be “better” for the stock market.