Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview: September 2023

Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.

Here are links to the five monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:

Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.

The other six Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published its midwest manufacturing index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to its website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated."

Three of the five districts were in contraction territory in September (Dallas, Kansas City, and Philadelphia) and three of the five districts worsened from last month (Dallas, Kansas City, and Philadelphia). The latest average of the five decreased from -6.2 in August to -6.5 this month. This marks the 17th consecutive month that the monthly average of the five districts has been negative. For reference, the monthly average of the five districts was negative for 20 consecutive months from December 2007 to July 2009 during the Great Recession.

Regional Manufacturing Overlay of Richmond Fed, Kansas City Fed, Dallas Fed, New York State Fed, Philadelphia Fed

Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions.

Regional Manufacturing Overlay of Richmond Fed, Kansas City Fed, Dallas Fed, New York State Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and Average of the 5

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

ETFs associated with industrials and manufacturing include: First Trust Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund (FXR), Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS), and iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (IYJ).


The 12 districts are as follows:

Boston (First Federal Reserve District) - Connecticut (excluding Fairfield County), Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont

New York (Second Federal Reserve District) – includes New York State, the 12 northern counties of New Jersey, Fairfield County in Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Philadelphia (Third Federal Reserve District) – includes Eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware

Cleveland (Fourth Federal Reserve District) - Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky; Fourth Federal Reserve District

Richmond (Fifth Federal Reserve District) – includes Carolinas, Maryland, Virginia, most of West Virginia and Washington, D.C.

Atlanta (Sixth Federal Reserve) - Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee; Sixth Federal Reserve District

Chicago (Seventh Federal Reserve District) - Iowa, and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin

St. Louis (Eighth Federal Reserve District) - most of eastern Missouri and southern Illinois

Minneapolis (Ninth Federal Reserve District) - Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, 26 counties in northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Kansas City (Tenth Federal Reserve District) – includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and Western Missouri

Dallas (Eleventh Federal Reserve District) - Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico

San Francisco (Twelfth Federal Reserve District) - Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands

Read more updates by Jen Nash