The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3. Note that the survey period for this month's results was August 3rd-16th.
Key Takeaways
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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® decreased by 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, missing forecast of 90.3.
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The Present Situation Index rose 6.8 points to 121.2.
- The Expectations Index fell 5.8 points to 68.2, staying below the recessionary 80.0 threshold since February 2025.
The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, rose 6.8 points to 121.2. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 5.8 points to 68.2. Note that a level of 80 or below for the Expectations Index historically signals a recession within the next year and the index has been below 80 since February 2025.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”
Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy were slightly more pessimistic in August. References to prices in general—and oil and gas specifically—remain elevated. Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August.
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were slightly more elevated in August. Most consumers—61.3%—still anticipated higher interest rates over the next 12 months, down moderately from 62% in July. Meanwhile, consumers still expected higher stock prices a year from now.
Background on the Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures the consumers attitudes and confidence in the economy, business conditions, and labor market, with higher readings indicating higher optimism. The general assumption is that when consumers are more optimistic they will spend more and stimulate economic growth. However, if consumers are pessimistic then spending will decline and the economy may slow down. The index is based on a 5 question survey, with 2 questions related to present conditions and 3 questions related to future expectations. The survey began in 1967 and was conducted every two months but changed to monthly reporting in 1977.
