The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed activity expanded significantly in July, with the index jumping 31.1 points to 41.4. This marks the highest level for the index since November 2021 and was more than triple the forecast of 12.7.
Here is the summary from the survey:
Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall, according to the firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders both rose this month — to nearly five-year highs — and the shipments index also increased. The employment index was positive for a second consecutive month and continued to suggest overall increases in employment. The prices paid index changed little this month, and the prices received index rose. The firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators moved down from elevated levels.
Background on the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Participants of the survey indicate the relative level of general business conditions in the region. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a reliable direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the three 21st century recessions. The green dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy. Therefore, we've included the three-month moving average (purple line), which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see longer and deeper periods of contraction during each of the recessions with shallower contractions in '02, '03, '11, '12, '13, and '15. More recently, the index's 3-month moving average contracted from July 2022 to December 2023 however no recession was called during that time.
In the next chart, we see the complete series, which dates from May 1960. For proof of the high volatility of the headline indicator, note that the average absolute monthly change across this data series is 8.2.
The next chart is an overlay of the General Activity Index and the Future General Activity Index — the outlook six months ahead.
Future Indicators Remain Positive
The diffusion index for future general activity fell 16 points this month to 34.4. Almost 52 percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 17 percent that expect a decrease; 22 percent expect no change. The future new orders index fell 26 points to 35.1, and the future shipments index decreased 21 points to 39.3. The firms continue to expect increases in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index inched down 1 point to 29.5. Both future price indexes declined but remained above their long-run averages: The future prices paid index moved down from 63.2 to 56.7, and the future prices received index dropped 26 points to 41.4. The index for future capital expenditures remained elevated but fell 11 points to 30.1.
For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.
Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2004 (for those with data).
Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions.
ETFs associated with industrials and manufacturing include: First Trust Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund (FXR), Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS), and iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (IYJ).
Read more updates by Jen Nash
