2022 Economic & Market Outlook


The economic and market landscapes are continuously evolving, and, as always, we suggest focusing on key market signals, which we define as:

  • Economic growth rates
  • Inflation expectations
  • Monetary policy
  • Corporate earnings growth rates

And we provide our 2022 thoughts on:

  • Equities
  • Real assets and alternatives
  • Fixed income

At the time of writing, there are also several “known unknowns” that could significantly affect our perspective. These include:

1. The final outcome of the “Build Back Better” plan. Congress passed and President Biden signed a separate “infrastructure” bill, but the larger social spending bill known as the “Build Back Better” plan remains in flux likely until early 2022. The proposed bill contains a variety of tax, spending and regulatory issues that have the potential to dramatically affect economic growth and corporate earnings over the next several years.

2. The continuing evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and the corresponding federal-, state- and local-level responses. With the increase in vaccinations and the advent of booster shots and therapeutics, we seemed to have finally turned the corner on COVID-19. But it has proven to be stubborn, and spikes in new cases and hospitalizations in Europe and the U.S., combined with the Omicron variant, continue to hang over consumer behavior and potential consumption patterns.

3. Rising geopolitical issues between the U.S., China, Russia, Iran and Europe. Tensions are high, especially between the U.S. and China and between Russia and Europe, over a variety of issues. Probably none of the issues on a stand-alone basis will have much impact on the global economy, but the potential remains for a conflation and escalation of events that may have a disruptive effect on global growth.

Glossary found at end for terms and Index definitions.

The following is our views on the signals we can currently observe: