Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
- Job gains & wage growth support consumer spending
- Homebuyers & renters starting to see some relief
- Guidance from retailers will indicate consumer strength
Planes, trains, and automobiles! Terminals are packed, stations are crowded, and highways are congested as travelers embark on vacations before summer comes to an end. But while vacationers travel for pleasure, the summer journeys for the Fed, CEOs, and financial market pundits have been all business. The Fed has been navigating challenging inflationary waters, company leaders have been addressing turbulence in earnings and forward guidance, and of course—many economists and investors were all aboard the recession train. While we anticipated that the economy would not travel at high speed in perpetuity, we did not have tunnel vision on a recession. Our train of thought? The consumer, who accounts for ~70% of GDP, had not run out of steam. And now, there are a number of positive developments that confirm our view that it was too soon for that recession train to leave the station.