As readers of the missives know, the three sectors we have really liked are Financials, Technology, and Industrials. Therefore, we were excited to arrive in Boston last week to see portfolio manager (PMs) and renew friendships.
So most know we took one of our South Florida speaking tours last week. Such tours consist of meeting with portfolio managers, presentations to clients of Raymond James, branch visits with our financial advisors, doing the media thing, well you get the idea.
Volatility has spiked, jolting investors out of complacency, but that doesn’t mean any dramatic action is needed.
We have long been big fans of the books about Sherlock Holmes ever since our misbegotten youth. Strangely enough, being a strategist/analyst is much like being a detective. One has to gather the evidence, pour through it, decipher it, eliminate the “noise,” and come to a conclusion that tips the odds of making money in our favor.
“You’ve Got Mail” is a 1998 romantic comedy-drama starring Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks. The film is about two people involved in an online romance who are unaware that they are also business rivals. In this morning missive, however, we are not referring to the movie, but rather some recent emails we have received.
U.S. stocks may have entered a melt-up phase but for now it is relatively well supported by earnings growth; and although sentiment is extended, behavioral measures indicate still some skepticism. However, given elevated valuations, and the aforementioned overly optimistic sentiment, volatility is likely to increase and more frequent pullbacks are possible. The bull should continue to run, but likely with a bit more drama, so it’s important to stay diversified and disciplined around your long-term asset allocation.
The year was 1963, the singer was Lesley Gore, and the song was “It’s My Party.” Clearly, that song seems appropriate given the government shutdown over the weekend. Indeed, “It’s My Party” and the blame rests with both parties in the political equation.
Much has been written recently about the yield curve. It is espoused that the flattening yield curve is telegraphing the potential of a recession in the not too distant future.
In 1981, The Leuthold Group was founded by the sagacious Steve Leuthold. It is an independent stock/economic research firm that produces disciplined, quantitative financial and contrarian financial research for investors. The research team is led by CIO Doug Ramsey, who is one of Wall Street’s best and brightest.
We have used the aforementioned quip from our departed friend Jerry Goodman (aka Adam Smith) a number of times over the past 47 years because of the wisdom it imparts. We dredged it up this morning after reading an article in Barron’s over the weekend titled, “Man and Machine,” which was an interview with Omar Selim, the CEO of Arabesque Asset Management, a quantitative and sustainable investment management firm.