Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ignited a fight over her replacement. The increased animosity in Washington lowered the odds that lawmakers will reach agreement on a further fiscal support package and dampened investor sentiment.
Durable goods orders rose 0.4% overall and excluding transportation in August. Aircraft order cancellations continued and a seasonal adjustment quirk had overstated motor vehicle orders in July. Otherwise, orders were mixed across industries and were generally slower. Both new and existing home sales reached their highest levels since 2006, with housing demand fueled by low mortgage rates and an expected longer-term shift to working from home.
Next week, the economic calendar is full. The first presidential debate is on Tuesday. The September Employment Report will be the last before the November 3 election. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen more moderately, but figures will be subject to some seasonal adjustment distortions related to the start of the school year and the end of the summer travel season. The ISM Manufacturing Index should be consistent with further improvement in factory sector activity, although at a more moderate pace. Little change is expected in the third estimate of 2Q20 GDP growth (-31.7% in the second estimate), but August personal income and spending figures will help to fill in the GDP picture for the third quarter.
