Commentary

Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?

As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.

Commentary

Strategic Petroleum Reserve To Drop 40 Percent As Biden Sells Oil

The White House said last week it is prepared to begin large sales of crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Commentary

Biden’s “Billionaires Tax” Affects More Than Billionaires

In his federal budget for fiscal year 2023 that he unveiled earlier this month, President Biden proposed a huge new tax increase on America’s wealthiest citizens.

Commentary

Americans Added $1 Trillion In New Debt Last Year

American households took on over $1 trillion in new debt in 2021 for only the second time in history, pushing consumer debt above $15 trillion for the first time ever.

Commentary

Inflation Soars More – Fed Sure To Hike In March

Some weeks, it can be hard to find a topic I think is really interesting to write about.

Commentary

Biden Economy Is Failing The "Big Mac" Test

I recently ran across a couple of references to an old economic indicator called the “Big Mac Index.”

Commentary

Home Sales Surge, But Few Homes Now Left For Sale

Sales of existing homes in the US exploded in December to over 6 million units, a new record, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.

Commentary

Inflation Is Soaring – Americans Rightfully Concerned

For most Americans under the age of 50, inflation has never been much of an issue. Yes, prices rose a little every year but that was considered normal. Price increases of 1-2% a year for most goods and services were to be expected.

Commentary

The Top Performing Stocks Of The Last 30 Years

The vast majority of people who read my letter are investors. As such, most are at least somewhat familiar with the stock market.

Commentary

Consumer Spending Rebounds Strongly Despite Inflation

The government reported last week that US Gross Domestic Product rose at an annual rate of 2.1% in the 3Q, up ever so slightly from its initial report of 2.0% late last month.

Commentary

The Generic Ballot – What To Know, Why It’s So Important

There has been some very big news regarding the so-called “generic ballot” recently. I’ll share that news in just a moment. But what has surprised me the most recently is how few adults even know what the generic ballot is, much less how to follow it on a regular or even occasional basis and why it is so important.

Commentary

Investors Worried About Inflation – Want Fed To Act Now

Various surveys recently have shown investors growing more concerned about rising inflation. The Consumer Price Index rose a surprising 6.2% over the last year according to the latest data for October, the highest yearly rate since 1990.

Commentary

Illegal Border Crossings To Hit Record 2 Million By Year-end

The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported last week it has arrested around 1.7 million people for illegal crossings at the southern border with Mexico between October 2020 and September 2021. This is an all-time high with migrants from Mexico making up the largest group of nationals arrested.

Commentary

Fed To Taper, Inflation Rising, Retail Shortages Coming

We touch on several bases today as we often do. We begin with the Fed which decided to start reducing its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in November. This was not a surprise.

Commentary

The U.S. Economy Takes Significant Turn For The Worse

We all remember the COVID-19 recession which occurred in early 2020. It was a severe recession which saw GDP plunge over 30% last spring during the widespread lockdowns. The good news was the lockdowns ended quickly and the economy recovered all its losses, and then some, in the 3Q of last year. It’s been on a roll ever since.