Economy Is Booming, But A Renter Eviction Crisis Looms


1. 2Q GDP Report Expected To Show Another Strong Gain

2. Shortest (But Among Deepest) Recession In U.S. History

3. Eviction Moratorium Ends July 31 – Millions To Be Homeless?


We will touch on several topics as we go along today, beginning with the economy. On Thursday morning we will get the government’s first estimate of 2Q Gross Domestic Product, and most forecasters expect it to come in even higher than the 6.4% annualized growth in the 1Q. Many believe Thursday’s GDP report will be north of 8% (annual rate). The economy continues its strong recovery from last year’s COVID-19 recession.

Last week, we heard from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-profit organization which determines when recessions officially begin and end. The NBER announced, not surprisingly, that the COVID-19 recession ended in April last year. What was surprising was the NBER said it was the shortest recession in US history, lasting only two months.

Elsewhere, in March of 2020, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (the so-called “CARES” Act) which included an eviction moratorium preventing landlords from evicting tenants who were delinquent in paying their rent. The moratorium was originally set to expire at the end of July 2020 but was extended four times to July 31, 2021. That’s this Saturday, and the Biden administration says it will not be extended further.

It remains to be seen how this all plays out. Some forecasters predict we’ll see millions of new homeless people wandering the streets over the next several months. Others think landlords will be reluctant to oust their tenants, especially if they believe those renters will soon get federal or state assistance with paying their unpaid rent. We’ll see.